Policy Watch

We recently estimated that the U.S. was close to its “COVID-19 vaccine tipping point” – that is, the point at which vaccine supply may start to outstrip demand.  We also noted that national averages may mask important differences by state. We therefore sought to understand where states fall along this spectrum; such differences are important for understanding how best to target efforts to increase vaccine coverage throughout the country.

For months, the main challenge with COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in the U.S. was that demand greatly outstripped supply. Indeed, limited supply, coupled with restricted eligibility in many parts of the country, meant that most people couldn’t get vaccinated if they wanted to. Now, with supply having increased significantly and eligibility fully open to adults in all states as of April 19, the main question has become, when will supply outstrip demand? While timing may differ by state, we estimate that across the U.S. as a whole we will likely reach a tipping point on vaccine enthusiasm in the next 2 to 4 weeks. Once this happens, efforts to encourage vaccination will become much harder, presenting a challenge to reaching the levels of herd immunity that are expected to be needed.