How Many Uninsured Adults Could Be Reached If All States Expanded Medicaid?

Table 1: Nonelderly Adults in Non-Expansion States Who Were Uninsured Before the Pandemic and Would be Medicaid Eligible
if Their State Expanded, January 2021
Newly Eligible for Medicaid if State Expands
State Total Eligible for Medicaid under non-ACA Pathway In the Coverage Gap
(<100% FPL)
Eligible for Marketplace Coverage
(100%-138% FPL**)
All Non-Expansion States 5,679,000 757,000 2,802,000 2,119,000
Alabama 275,000 32,000 155,000 88,000
Florida 1,022,000 96,000 491,000 435,000
Georgia 656,000 105,000 342,000 208,000
Kansas 97,000 12,000 47,000 38,000
Mississippi 203,000 25,000 114,000 65,000
Missouri 255,000 27,000 134,000 94,000
North Carolina 457,000 56,000 234,000 167,000
Oklahoma 232,000 34,000 117,000 82,000
South Carolina 250,000 30,000 127,000 93,000
South Dakota 37,000 6,000 16,000 16,000
Tennessee 292,000 50,000 138,000 104,000
Texas 1,772,000 195,000 878,000 699,000
Wisconsin* 109,000 87,000 22,000
Wyoming 21,000 N/A 10,000 8,000
NOTES: * Wisconsin provides Medicaid eligibility to adults up the poverty level under a Medicaid waiver. As a result, there is no one in the coverage gap in Wisconsin. ** The “100%-138% FPL” category presented here uses a Marketplace eligibility determination for the lower bound (100% FPL) and a Medicaid eligibility determination for the upper bound (138% FPL) in order to appropriately isolate individuals within the range of potential Medicaid expansions but also with sufficient resources to avoid the coverage gap. Totals may not sum due to rounding. N/A: Sample size too small for reliable estimate.
SOURCE: KFF. See Methods for more details.
Table 2: Nonelderly Adults in Non-Expansion States Who Became Uninsured Due to Pandemic Job Losses (March 1st thru May 2nd) and Would Be Medicaid Eligible if Their State Expanded, January 2021
Newly Eligible for Medicaid if State Expands
State Total Eligible for Medicaid under Non-ACA Pathway In the Coverage Gap
(<100% FPL)
Eligible for Marketplace Coverage
(100%-138% FPL**)
All Non-Expansion States 4,225,000 1,127,000 1,924,000 1,174,000
Alabama 225,000 53,000 115,000 57,000
Florida 741,000 149,000 351,000 241,000
Georgia 802,000 209,000 398,000 195,000
Kansas 112,000 29,000 52,000 31,000
Mississippi 113,000 29,000 58,000 27,000
Missouri 242,000 50,000 119,000 73,000
North Carolina 367,000 86,000 178,000 104,000
Oklahoma 163,000 43,000 74,000 46,000
South Carolina 211,000 52,000 99,000 61,000
South Dakota 15,000 N/A 7,000 5,000
Tennessee 206,000 57,000 86,000 63,000
Texas 798,000 173,000 382,000 243,000
Wisconsin* 213,000 189,000 24,000
Wyoming 16,000 N/A N/A N/A
NOTES: * Wisconsin provides Medicaid eligibility to adults up the poverty level under a Medicaid waiver. As a result, there is no one in the coverage gap in Wisconsin. ** The “100%-138% FPL” category presented here uses a Marketplace eligibility determination for the lower bound (100% FPL) and a Medicaid eligibility determination for the upper bound (138% FPL) in order to appropriately isolate individuals within the range of potential Medicaid expansions but also with sufficient resources to avoid the coverage gap. Totals may not sum due to rounding. N/A: Sample size too small for reliable estimate.
SOURCE: KFF. See Methods for more details.
Table 3: Nonelderly Adults in Non-Expansion States Who Were Uninsured Before the Pandemic or Lost ESI due to Pandemic and Would be Medicaid Eligible if Their State Expanded, January 2021
Newly Eligible for Medicaid if State Expands
State Total Eligible for Medicaid
under Non-ACA Pathway
In the Coverage Gap
(<100% FPL)
Eligible for Marketplace Coverage
(100%-138% FPL**)
All Non-Expansion States 9,904,000 1,884,000 4,727,000 3,293,000
Alabama 500,000 85,000 270,000 145,000
Florida 1,764,000 245,000 842,000 676,000
Georgia 1,458,000 315,000 740,000 403,000
Kansas 209,000 41,000 99,000 69,000
Mississippi 317,000 53,000 171,000 92,000
Missouri 497,000 77,000 253,000 167,000
North Carolina 825,000 142,000 411,000 271,000
Oklahoma 395,000 77,000 190,000 128,000
South Carolina 461,000 82,000 226,000 153,000
South Dakota 52,000 9,000 23,000 20,000
Tennessee 499,000 107,000 224,000 167,000
Texas 2,570,000 368,000 1,260,000 942,000
Wisconsin* 322,000 276,000 46,000
Wyoming 37,000 7,000 17,000 13,000
NOTES: * Wisconsin provides Medicaid eligibility to adults up the poverty level under a Medicaid waiver. As a result, there is no one in the coverage gap in Wisconsin. ** The “100%-138% FPL” category presented here uses a Marketplace eligibility determination for the lower bound (100% FPL) and a Medicaid eligibility determination for the upper bound (138% FPL) in order to appropriately isolate individuals within the range of potential Medicaid expansions but also with sufficient resources to avoid the coverage gap. Totals may not sum due to rounding. N/A: Sample size too small for reliable estimate.
SOURCE: KFF. See Methods for more details.
Data Note