KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: The Increasing Importance of Partisanship in Predicting COVID-19 Vaccination Status
The share of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents in the most recent KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor is at 41% of the U.S. adult population, which is similar to the share reported by Gallup and Pew Research Center during the same time period.
In addition to the analysis included in this research brief, we also used ordinary least squares regression models (OLS) and logit regressions with each cross-sectional survey predicting being unvaccinated to produce predicted probabilities. The independent variables include gender, race/ethnicity, age, education, partisanship, income, urbanicity, LGBT identity, ideology, health care worker status, and health insurance coverage when available in the month’s survey. Predicted probabilities from the logit regression models from the September data is displayed in Appendix figure 2.
This is consistent with recent academic research that suggests that views of all COVID-19 related health behaviors, including vaccine intentions, is correlated with Trump favorability. Previous KFF analysis found a similar vaccination gap between counties that voted for President Biden compared to President Trump
The sample size of unvaccinated Democrats is too small for analysis.