Implementation of 2025 Reconciliation Law: Medicaid Managed Care Rate Setting Uncertainty & Potential Plan Exits
This policy watch examines recent and anticipated managed care rate setting challenges and the potential implications of MCO exits.
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This policy watch examines recent and anticipated managed care rate setting challenges and the potential implications of MCO exits.
An estimated $60 billion in federal Medicaid spending in 37 states (including the District of Columbia) would likely exceed new federal limits on state directed payments for hospital services once fully implemented, a new KFF analysis finds. States with the biggest potential reductions in Medicaid payments to hospitals include California, Illinois, Kentucky, Texas, North Carolina, Louisiana, Arizona and Michigan.
This analysis estimates the number of states impacted by and the amount of current federal spending on Medicaid state directed payments for hospital services that exceeds the new limits established by the 2025 reconciliation law when fully implemented.
This analysis of available 2025 prior authorization data finds insurers denied at least 1 in 8 standard requests for prior authorization across three insurance markets: Medicare Advantage, Medicaid managed care, and the federally facilitated ACA Marketplaces. Denial rates varied wide segments by insurer. The analysis highlights limitations of the data and challenges for consumers interpreting it.
The 2025 reconciliation law reduced federal Medicaid spending by an estimated $911 billion from 2025 through 2034, some of which stems from new restrictions on Medicaid state directed payments (SDPs) for hospital and other health care services. This issue brief describes SDPs and forthcoming policy changes stemming from the 2025 reconciliation law and the proposed regulation to implement those requirements and make other changes.
Forty states and DC currently receive $93 billion in annual federal Medicaid spending through state directed payments (SDPs) and may be at risk due to forthcoming limits on these payments, according to new KFF estimates. Annual federal spending on SDPs is highest in California (an estimated $10.6 billion)—followed by Texas ($6.3 billion), North Carolina ($5.2 billion), and Illinois ($5.1 billion).
This issue brief analyzes Medicaid spending by state on SDPs that require prior CMS approval to better understand the use of SDPs before new limits in the reconciliation law take effect.
Our updated explainer provides an overview of comprehensive managed care, the most common way states deliver Medicaid services to enrollees.
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