White House Disclaims HHS/FEMA COVID-19 Projections Showing Surge In Daily Deaths By June; IHME Releases New Projections Based On Reopenings

Bloomberg: White House Disclaims Projection Showing Surge in Virus Outbreak
“An internal U.S. government projection shows the nation’s coronavirus outbreak vastly accelerating by June to more than 200,000 new cases and 2,500 deaths per day — far more than the country is currently experiencing. The White House disclaimed the projection, calling it an ‘internal CDC document’ but saying it had not been presented to President Donald Trump’s coronavirus task force and didn’t comport with the task force’s own analysis and projections…” (Wayne, 5/4).

New York Times: Models Project Sharp Rise in Deaths as States Reopen
“…The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by the New York Times, a 70 percent increase from the current number of about 1,750. The projections, based on government modeling pulled together by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently…” (5/4).

Reuters: New projection puts U.S. COVID-19 deaths at nearly 135,000 by August
“A new forecast projects nearly 135,000 deaths due to COVID-19 in the United States through the beginning of August mainly due to reopening measures under way, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington said on Monday. The forecast U.S. death toll through early August totaled 134,475, a midrange between 95,092 and 242,890, the IHME said. The revised projection almost doubles the number of deaths foreseen in the United States since the last estimate in mid-April…” (McKay, 5/4).

Additional coverage of the different forecast models is available from Axios, CNN, and Washington Post.