Trends in Overall and Non-COVID-19 Hospital Admissions

Issue Brief
  1. Epic data was compared to COVID-19 data from KFF, “State Data and Policy Actions to Address Coronavirus (available at: https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/state-data-and-policy-actions-to-address-coronavirus/) and U.S. population data from the U.S. Census Bureau, “State Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010-2019” (available at: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html).

     

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  2. The predictive model was based on data through Jan 25, 2020 because that was the first week with a reported COVID-19 case in the United States. We used a generalized additive model and fit it to weekly admission volume, combining long term trend, yearly seasonal, and holiday effects. Forecasts were then obtained for Jan 26, 2020 through Dec 26, 2020.

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  3. Cynthia Cox and Krutika Amin, “How have healthcare utilization and spending changed so far during the coronavirus pandemic?” Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, Dec. 1, 2020; Department of Health and Human Services Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation “The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Medicare Beneficiary Use of Health Care Services and Payments to Providers: Early Data for the First 6 Months of 2020,” September 29, 2020; Christopher M. Whaley; Megan F. Pera,; Jonathan Cantor, et al. Changes in Health Services Use Among Commercially Insured US Populations During the COVID-19 Pandemic. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(11):e2024984.

     

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  4. Andrea Noel, Christopher Alban, Jeff Trinkl, Sam Butler, David Berry, Eric Lindgren, Lily Rubin-Miller and Tyler Heist, “Fewer Visits, Sicker Patients: The Changing Character of Emergency Department Visits During the COVID-19 Pandemic,” Epic Health Research Network, February 3, 2021.

     

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  5. Andrea Noel, Christopher Alban, Jeff Trinkl, Sam Butler, David Berry, Eric Lindgren, Lily Rubin-Miller and Tyler Heist, “Fewer Visits, Sicker Patients: The Changing Character of Emergency Department Visits During the COVID-19 Pandemic,” Epic Health Research Network, February 3, 2021.

     

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  6. Christopher Mast and Alejandro Munoz del Rio, “Delayed Cancer Screenings—A Second Look,” Epic Health Research Network, July 17, 2020.

     

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  7. Dhruv Khullar, Amelia M. Bond and William L. Schpero. “COVID-19 and the Financial Health of US Hospitals.” JAMA. 2020;323(21):2127–2128.

     

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  8. Karyn Schwartz and Anthony Damico, “Distribution of CARES Act Funding Among Hospitals,” KFF, May 13, 2020.

     

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  9. This was calculated using 2019 National Health Expenditure data to estimate total revenue. We assumed that hospitals received 50% of the $10.2 billion allocated to rural providers and assumed that hospitals did not get any of the $20 billion in Phase 3 funding.

     

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  10. Department of Health and Human Services, “CARES Act Provider Relief Fund: General Information” https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/cares-act-provider-relief-fund/general-information/index.html (accessed January 23, 2021).

     

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  11. Melanie Evans, “Latest Covid-19 Aid Package Scales Back Funds to Hospitals, Clinics,” Wall Street Journal, Jan. 1, 2021.

     

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  12. Eric Lopez, Gary Claxton, Karyn Schwartz, Matthew Rae, Nancy Ochieng, and Tricia Neuman, “Comparing Private Payer and Medicare Payment Rates for Select Inpatient Hospital Services,” KFF, July 7, 2020; Eric Lopez, Tricia Neuman, Gretchen Jacobson and Larry Levitt, “How Much More Than Medicare Do Private Insurers Pay? A Review of the Literature,” KFF, April 15, 2020; MACPAC, “Medicaid Hospital Payment: A Comparison across States and to Medicare,” MACPAC, April 2017.

     

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  13. Juliette Cubanski, Karyn Schwartz, Jeannie Fuglesten Biniek and Tricia Neuman, “Medicare Accelerated and Advance Payments for COVID-19 Revenue Loss: Time to Repay?” KFF, Aug. 7, 2020.

     

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  14. Section 2501 of H.R. 8337.

     

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  15. CBO, “Preliminary Estimate of the Effects of H.R. 748, the CARES Act, Public Law 116-136, Revised, With Corrections to the Revenue Effect of the Employee Retention Credit and to the Modification of a Limitation on Losses for Taxpayers Other Than Corporations,” CBO, April 27, 2020.

     

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  16. American Cancer Society – Cancer Action Network, “COVID-19 Pandemic Impact on Cancer Patients and Survivors Survey Findings Summary,” American Cancer Society – Cancer Action Network, Available at: https://www.fightcancer.org/sites/default/files/National%20Documents/Survivor%20Views.COVID19%20Polling%20Memo.Final_.pdf (accessed January 24, 2021).

     

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  17. Laura Dyrda, “Where hospitals are delaying elective surgeries due to COVID-19 spikes,” Becker’s ASC Review, November 17, 2020. Available at https://www.beckersasc.com/asc-news/where-hospitals-are-delaying-elective-surgeries-due-to-covid-19-spikes.html (accessed January 24, 2021).

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