Trends in Overall and Non-COVID-19 Hospital Admissions
Issue Brief
Epic data was compared to COVID-19 data from KFF, “State Data and Policy Actions to Address Coronavirus (available at: https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/state-data-and-policy-actions-to-address-coronavirus/) and U.S. population data from the U.S. Census Bureau, “State Population Totals and Components of Change: 2010-2019” (available at: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-state-total.html).
The predictive model was based on data through Jan 25, 2020 because that was the first week with a reported COVID-19 case in the United States. We used a generalized additive model and fit it to weekly admission volume, combining long term trend, yearly seasonal, and holiday effects. Forecasts were then obtained for Jan 26, 2020 through Dec 26, 2020.
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Andrea Noel, Christopher Alban, Jeff Trinkl, Sam Butler, David Berry, Eric Lindgren, Lily Rubin-Miller and Tyler Heist, “Fewer Visits, Sicker Patients: The Changing Character of Emergency Department Visits During the COVID-19 Pandemic,” Epic Health Research Network, February 3, 2021.
Christopher Mast and Alejandro Munoz del Rio, “Delayed Cancer Screenings—A Second Look,” Epic Health Research Network, July 17, 2020.
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This was calculated using 2019 National Health Expenditure data to estimate total revenue. We assumed that hospitals received 50% of the $10.2 billion allocated to rural providers and assumed that hospitals did not get any of the $20 billion in Phase 3 funding.
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