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WHO Analysis Predicts More Than 20,000 New Ebola Cases By November Without Stepped Up Response

News outlets report on a new analysis examining the Ebola response so far and estimating the possible number of new cases expected over the coming weeks.

Agence France-Presse: Ebola cases to triple in weeks without drastic action: WHO
“The number of Ebola infections will triple to 20,000 by November, soaring by thousands every week if efforts to stop the outbreak are not stepped up radically, the WHO warned in a study on Tuesday…” (9/23).

Associated Press: WHO: 21,000 Ebola cases by November if no changes
“New estimates from the World Health Organization warn the number of Ebola cases could hit 21,000 in six weeks unless efforts to curb the outbreak are ramped up, according to an analysis published online Tuesday by the New England Journal of Medicine…” (Cheng, 9/23).

New York Times: Health Agency’s New Assessment of the Epidemic Is More Dire Still
“…In addition to predicting many more cases and deaths, the new report for the first time raises the possibility that the epidemic will not be brought under control and that the disease will become endemic in West Africa, meaning that it could reach a steady state and become a constant presence there…” (Grady, 9/22).

Politico: WHO says Ebola cases could exceed 20,000 within weeks
“…In addition, the WHO Ebola response team in an article published tonight in the New England Journal of Medicine said more than 70 percent of people who fall sick are dying…” (Kenen, 9/22).

Reuters: Ebola could strike 20,000 in six weeks, ‘rumble on for years’: study
“…In an article in the New England Journal of Medicine, experts from the World Health Organization and Imperial College said that infections will continue climbing exponentially unless patients are isolated, contacts traced and communities enlisted…” (Nebehay/Miles, 9/23).

WHO: Study warns swift action needed to curb exponential climb in Ebola outbreak
“…In the article, public health epidemiologists and statisticians reviewed data since the beginning of the outbreak in December 2013 to determine the scale of the epidemic, better understand the spread of the disease, and what it will take to reverse the trend of infections…” (9/22).

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