Epidemic Modelers Warn ‘Wave’ Analogies Misguided As Cases Rise In Americas, Europe; Some Island Nations, Secretive Countries Among Possibly Last Virus-Free Places

AP: Pacific isles, secretive states among last virus-free places
“From Argentina to Zimbabwe, from the Vatican to the White House, the coronavirus has spread relentlessly. It’s been confirmed on every continent but one and in nearly every country. Yet a few places have yet to report even a single case of infection. Some have been genuinely spared so far, while others may be hiding the truth…” (Perry, 11/12).

New York Times: India’s Covid-19 Cases Have Plummeted. Many Fear a New Wave.
“Two months ago, India looked like a coronavirus disaster zone. … Today, India’s situation looks much different. Reported infections, deaths and the share of people testing positive have all fallen significantly. … But doubts persist about the reasons for India’s drop, and some researchers say the results stem at least in part from a possible change in testing, though researchers say they do not have access to complete data to really know the big picture. The experts generally agree that the number of infections has far outstripped efforts to track them in India, like elsewhere, and that infections in the country could still get considerably worse…” (Gettleman et al., 11/11).

Reuters: COVID-19 cases still surging in the Americas, the WHO warns
“COVID-19 cases are still surging in the Americas, averaging 150,000 a day in last week, the World Health Organization’s regional office said on Wednesday. The United States continues to report record-breaking numbers, while parts of Canada and some states in Mexico, including the capital, are experiencing spikes, the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) said…” (Boadle, 11/11).

STAT: With a meteoric rise in deaths, talk of waves is misguided, say Covid-19 modelers
“…The meteoric rise in U.S. Covid-19 cases and death is not another wave. Experts modeling the coronavirus pandemic may differ on details, but they agree that calling this a second or third wave is incorrect because there was never a significant trough before cases began mounting again…” (Cooney, 11/12).

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