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Disease Transmission Model Provides Estimates For Wild Poliovirus Elimination Probability In Nigeria

PLOS ONE: Has Wild Poliovirus Been Eliminated from Nigeria?
Michael Famulare of the Institute for Disease Modeling “provides estimates for the probabilities of poliovirus elimination in Nigeria” using data based on a poliovirus disease transmission model. The results of the study suggest “the probability of [wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1)] elimination in Nigeria is 84 percent, and that if WPV1 has not been eliminated, a new case will be detected with 99 percent probability by the end of 2015. The probability of [wild poliovirus type 3 (WPV3)] elimination (and thus global eradication) is > 99 percent. However, it is unlikely that the ongoing transmission of cVDPV2 has been interrupted; the probability of cVDPV2 elimination rises to 83 percent if no new cases are detected by April 2016…” (8/28).

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