Medicaid’s Future

A new KFF analysis finds that states received over $117 billion in enhanced federal Medicaid funding in exchange for pausing disenrollments during the first three years of the pandemic. The injection of federal money enabled states to spend less of their own funds on Medicaid even as enrollment rose by…

This brief examines how Medicaid spending changed during the continuous enrollment period and estimates the amount of enhanced federal funding states received during the continuous enrollment period.

Medicaid is the primary program providing comprehensive coverage of health care and long-term services and supports to more than 90 million low-income people in the United States. In 2023, Medicaid programs are facing new challenges and millions of enrollees are at risk of losing coverage as states unwind the continuous enrollment provision that was put in place early in the pandemic to ensure stable coverage.

As states begin to unwind the COVID emergency continuous enrollment provision and resume Medicaid disenrollments, early data from a handful of states – highlighted on KFF’s regularly-updated Medicaid Enrollment and Unwinding Tracker — reveal wide variation in disenrollment rates.

A KFF survey of Medicaid enrollees largely fielded prior to states resuming their efforts to redetermine Medicaid enrollees’ eligibility reveals many enrollees are unprepared for the renewal process that could result in some losing their coverage either due to eligibility changes or paperwork issues. During the COVID-19 pandemic, states suspended…

This brief gauges Medicaid enrollees’ knowledge of the Medicaid renewal process and possible disenrollment, following the end of continuous enrollment on March 31, 2023.

A new KFF analysis finds that an estimated 1.7 million Medicaid enrollees could become ineligible for federal Medicaid under proposed work requirements and presents state-by-state projections, based on estimates of coverage loss from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). States could continue to provide Medicaid to those enrollees but would not…

On April 26, 2023, the House of Representatives passed a Republican debt ceiling bill (HR 2811, the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023) that includes a requirement for states to implement work requirements for certain Medicaid enrollees. We provide estimates for the rate of Medicaid eligibility loss based on Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections as well as estimates for the cost to states if they maintained coverage for all ineligible participants in 2024.

A new KFF analysis finds that between 8 and 24 million people across the U.S. could be disenrolled from Medicaid during the unwinding of the program’s continuous enrollment provision. The estimates draw on data collected through KFF’s recent survey of state Medicaid and CHIP officials, conducted with the Georgetown University…

Between 8 and 24 million people across the U.S. could be disenrolled from Medicaid during the unwinding of the program’s continuous enrollment provision. KFF’s new analysis offers three illustrative scenarios for how state-level Medicaid enrollment could decline between March 2023 and May 2024, ranging from 8 percent to 28 percent of total enrollees.