State Options to Expand Medicaid HCBS: Examples & Evaluations of Section 1115 Waivers

Authors: Madeline Guth and MaryBeth Musumeci
Published: Jul 16, 2021

Issue Brief

The coronavirus pandemic’s disproportionate impact on seniors and people with disabilities and chronic illnesses has brought heightened focus on the unmet need for home and community-based services (HCBS). Medicaid serves as the primary source of coverage for HCBS, which help these populations to live independently outside institutions by assisting with daily needs. In addition to determining whether to retain Medicaid HCBS policy changes adopted during the pandemic, states are currently developing plans to access an increased federal matching rate (“FMAP”) for Medicaid HCBS spending established in the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) of 2021. In the future, states may also be able to access increased HCBS funds proposed in the Biden Administration’s American Jobs Plan and the Better Care Better Jobs Act recently introduced in Congress.

To provide context for state considerations of policy options for the post-pandemic period and the potential use of new federal funds, this brief highlights examples of Medicaid HCBS policy changes authorized through Section 1115 demonstration waivers in seven states (Arizona, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington). Where available, we discuss waiver evaluation findings and reports that assess the impact of these policy changes. Key waiver provisions seeking to expand HCBS include the following (and are summarized in a state-by-state table in the Appendix):

  • Streamline processes for determining eligibility and providing services.
  • Expand financial eligibility rules to help certain enrollees afford to live in the community.
  • Serve additional populations by expanding financial and/or functional eligibility rules.
  • Offer new services through alternative benefit packages.

States may be unlikely to pursue new 1115 waivers to use the ARPA HCBS funds because these funds are available for states to claim for one year only (though states have until March 2024 to spend the enhanced funds). However, these examples from 1115 waivers identify policy areas that states may consider targeting through existing state plan or HCBS waiver authorities, particularly where state evaluations and experiences have found that policy changes seeking to expand HCBS access have achieved their goals.

Streamlining eligibility and enrollment processes

To provide faster access to HCBS, states have used 1115 authority to streamline processes for determining eligibility and providing services, including by authorizing benefits during a presumptive eligibility period and accepting self-attestation as verification for financial eligibility.

Authorizing benefits during a presumptive eligibility period. Presumptive eligibility is a longstanding option that allows states to authorize certain qualified entities to enroll individuals who appear likely eligible for coverage while the state processes the full application and makes a final eligibility determination. Presumptive eligibility can facilitate access to coverage and services when individuals in need of critical services also may need extra time to collect documents needed to complete a full eligibility determination. While states may allow hospitals to determine presumptive eligibility for Medicaid pathways based on old age or disability without an 1115 waiver, several states have used 1115 authority to provide presumptive eligibility (determined by non-hospital entities) for more limited populations and/or benefits to provide faster access to HCBS. For example:

  • Washington uses 1115 authority to provide presumptive eligibility for both its Tailored Support for Older Adults (TSOA) and Medicaid Alternative Care (MAC) programs, which provide supportive services to older adults and their caregivers (see Appendix for program details). An interim evaluation Quarterly progress reports from 2020 indicate high proficiency for appropriate determinations of nursing facility level of care, performed primarily by local Area Agencies on Aging, for those enrolled presumptively and low percentages of enrollees determined ineligible after the presumptive eligibility period. In a recent pending waiver amendment requesting to further extend presumptive eligibility for LTSS, Washington noted that the high accuracy rate of presumptive eligibility determinations for TSOA “exemplifies the minimal risk to the state and [] federal partners.”
  • Rhode Island’s waiver also authorizes HCBS benefits to new long-term care (LTC) applicants during a presumptive eligibility period while final financial eligibility determinations are pending.

Accepting self-attestation as verification for financial eligibility. States may simplify the Medicaid application process by allowing applicants to self-attest to certain financial eligibility criteria. During the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE), some states are using Medicaid emergency authorities to allow self-attestation of eligibility requirements for applicants to Medicaid pathways based on old age or disability. States may also use 1115 authority to allow more limited populations to self-attest to financial eligibility requirements. For example,

  • New Jersey’s 1115 waiver eliminates state review and instead accepts self-attestation of no asset transfers during the five-year look-back period for applicants below 100% FPL seeking LTC and HCBS. The look-back period delays the date of Medicaid eligibility for applicants who transferred assets for less than fair market value, which instead could have been used to meet long-term care needs. New Jersey conducted electronic asset verification of randomly selected applications in 2015 and 2016 and found a 0% error rate on these sampled self-attestations, concluding that “the often burdensome five year lookback process can be safely eliminated for many low-income applicants.”

Expanding financial eligibility rules

To help enrollees maintain community residence, states have used 1115 authority to modify financial eligibility rules for limited populations (though states may more generally expand financial eligibility without waiver authority). These expanded eligibility rules enable enrollees to more easily afford to live in the community rather than in nursing facilities and include:

  • Establishing an income disregard that accounts for average rent (in New York). New York’s 1115 waiver applies a special income disregard that accounts for average rent when determining financial eligibility for individuals moving from institutional to community settings. An evaluation of New York’s waiver has found positive impacts among individuals transitioning out of institutional settings, including that high percentages of enrollees remained in the community.
  • Increasing the asset limit for certain HCBS beneficiaries (in Vermont). Vermont uses 1115 authority to increase the asset limit for certain high-need beneficiaries receiving HCBS. Evaluation results suggest positive impacts for this population, including an increase in the percentage of participants living in home and community settings versus in nursing facilities.
  • Increasing the personal needs allowance for certain HCBS beneficiaries (in Rhode Island). For enrollees transitioning from nursing facilities to the community, Rhode Island’s 1115 waiver increases the personal needs allowance, which is the amount of funds not considered available to contribute to the cost of LTC services.

Serving new populations by expanding eligibility rules

Several states use 1115 authority to expand financial and/or functional eligibility rules to serve additional populations, such as:

  • Elderly and near-elderly adults (in Washington). Washington’s TSOA program creates a new eligibility pathway and benefit package for otherwise ineligible adults older than 55 who require nursing facility level of care. By serving these adults with and without unpaid caregivers, TSOA aims to delay or avoid the need for more intensive LTSS. An interim evaluation of the program suggests that TSOA has met this goal: while 24-35% of TSOA participants enrolled in regular Medicaid within 6 months of TSOA enrollment, only a very small percentage used traditional LTSS. Both TSOA caregivers and recipients expressed high satisfaction with the program, with 86-90% of recipients indicating that the TSOA program would help keep them from moving to a nursing home or adult family home.
  • Young adults with disabilities (in Rhode Island). Rhode Island’s 1115 waiver covers young adults age 19 to 21 who age out of the Katie Beckett group (which provides coverage to children with significant disabilities without regard to family income) and are in need of services for behavioral health or medical/developmental diagnoses. This new pathway aims to enable children with disabilities to maintain continuity of care and remain in the community as they age into young adulthood. Issues related to continuity of care for young adults with disabilities are widespread beyond Rhode Island: for example, a recent New York Times article details how in New York, the change from “medically fragile child” to “medically fragile adult” includes lower pay rates for nurses that could result in young adults with disabilities losing care and being forced to move into nursing homes.
  • Children with disabilities (in Delaware). Delaware’s 1115 waiver creates a new eligibility pathway for children with disabilities who do not meet institutional level of care criteria for the Katie Beckett pathway, but are at risk of institutionalization absent the provision of services. By providing benefits to serve these children with disabilities in the community, this new pathway could help delay or avoid the use of more costly LTSS. States may use Section 1915 (i) state plan authority to serve enrollees with functional needs that are less than an institutional level of care; however, Delaware uses 1115 authority in order to limit this population to children with incomes at or below 250% of Supplemental Security Income (SSI) ($1,985 per month in 2021).

Offering new services

While states may add services to existing benefit packages without 1115 authority, they instead may use 1115 waivers to design alternative benefit packages. For example, the MAC program created by Washington’s 1115 waiver provides an alternative benefit package to support unpaid caregivers for older adults who are otherwise Medicaid eligible. This provision supports these enrollees and their caregivers by providing additional HCBS benefits not available in the standard Medicaid benefit package (though not the full Medicaid benefit package in other respects), which in turn may help the clients they care for remain in the community. An interim evaluation report shows that MAC enrollment has been lower than anticipated (with just 251 caregiver/care-receiver pairs enrolled in MAC as of October 2020, compared to initial projections of 4,673 MAC enrollees in that month) and suggests that further outreach may be necessary to reach eligible populations. Of those who did enroll, however, both caregivers and care recipients reported high satisfaction with the MAC services provided. The report also suggests that MAC participation has reduced the occurrence of adverse health outcomes and helped enrollees delay or avoid the use of more intensive traditional Medicaid LTSS.

Looking Ahead

As the primary source of coverage for HCBS, Medicaid plays a significant role in helping states meet community integration obligations under the Americans with Disabilities Act and the Supreme Court’s Olmstead decision. While the unmet need for HCBS for seniors and people with disabilities pre-dates the COVID-19 pandemic, during the PHE states have taken a number of emergency Medicaid LTSS actions, such as HCBS benefit expansions and provider payment rate increases for HCBS. In guidance on considerations for the end of the PHE, CMS specifically encourages states to identify temporary authorities that increase access to HCBS and to consider making these changes permanent. Further, the American Rescue Plan Act provided a time-limited increase in the Medicaid FMAP for HCBS spending to fund activities beyond what is currently available in states’ Medicaid programs. States must develop plans to use these funds for expanded HCBS activities such as streamlining eligibility/enrollment processes, increasing covered services, and supporting family caregivers. The existing HCBS policy changes in Section 1115 waivers summarized in this brief may provide useful examples of areas that states could target, particularly where state evaluations and experiences have found that policies seeking to expand HCBS access have achieved their goals.

Appendix

Appendix

Key Section 1115 Waivers with Approved HCBS Provisions as of 7/7/21
StateDemonstration NameKey HCBS Provisions
AZArizona Health Care Cost Containment SystemExpanding financial eligibility rules: AZ uses 1115 authority to remove the LTSS estate recovery penalty for acute care enrollees age 55 or older who receive long-term care services.
DEDelaware Diamond State Health PlanServing new populations by expanding eligibility rules: New eligibility pathway (“TEFRA-Like Group”) for children with disabilities under age 18 up to 250% SSI who do not meet institutional level of care criteria for Katie Beckett state plan option, but are at risk of institutionalization absent the provision of services.
NJNew Jersey FamilyCare Comprehensive DemonstrationStreamlining eligibility and enrollment processes: At the time of application for LTC and HCBS, NJ accepts self-attestation in lieu of an asset transfer review for applicants up to 100% FPL. Applicants complete a self-attestation form attesting that no transfers were made during the five-year look-back period.

Expanding financial eligibility rules: NJ also provides supports and services to adults over age 21 with developmental disabilities up to 300% SSI who live with family members or in their own homes (“Supports Program”). In determining HCBS financial eligibility for this population, NJ disregards Social Security benefits based on parent’s work history.

NYNew York Medicaid Redesign TeamExpanding financial eligibility rules: Individuals discharged from an NF who would be eligible for HCBS but for spousal impoverishment rules (“Institution to Community” population) are subject to a special income standard that accounts for average rent. This standard is determined by subtracting 30% of the Medicaid income level for an individual from the regional Housing and Urban Development Fair Market Rent dollar amount.
RIRhode Island Comprehensive Demonstration1. Streamlining eligibility and enrollment processes by authorizing benefits during a presumptive eligibility period: Limited HCBS benefit package up to 90 days for new long-term care applicants who meet functional eligibility criteria and self-attest to financial eligibility criteria (while final financial eligibility determinations are pending).

2. Expanding financial eligibility rules: Increases personal need allowance by $400 for those in NFs for 90 days who are transitioning to the community and otherwise would be unable to afford community residence.

3. Serving new populations by expanding eligibility rules: New coverage group (“Beckett aged out”) for young adults (age 19-21) with disabilities aging out of the Katie Beckett group with incomes below 250% FPL, who are otherwise ineligible for Medicaid, and who are in need of services/treatment for behavioral health or medical/developmental diagnoses.

VTVermont Global Commitment to HealthExpanding financial eligibility rules: VT uses 1115 authority to increase the asset limit to $10,000 for beneficiaries in the Highest Need and High Need groups (part of the Choices for Care program) who own and reside in their homes and receive HCBS, but are at risk for institutionalization.
WAWashington Medicaid Transformation ProjectMedicaid Transformation Project Initiative 2 creates two alternatives to traditional LTSS for older adults & their caregivers:

1. Offering new services: Medicaid Alternative Care Program (MAC) provides supportive services for unpaid caregivers of adults age 55+ eligible for NF care who are financially eligible for Medicaid.

2. Serving new populations by expanding eligibility rules: Tailored Support for Older Adults (TSOA) provides the same supportive services for unpaid caregivers of adults age 55+ eligible for NF care who do not meet the financial qualifications for LTSS despite being at risk of impoverishment. TSOA additionally provides personal assistance services to individuals without an informal caregiver.

Streamlining eligibility and enrollment processes by authorizing benefits during a presumptive eligibility period for both MAC and TSOA enrollees.

Expanding financial eligibility rules: WA also removes the LTSS estate recovery penalty for MAC and TSOA enrollees.

DEFINITIONS: HCBS = home community-based services. LTC = long-term care. LTSS = long-term services and supports. NF = nursing facility. SSI = Supplemental Security Income.SOURCE: KFF analysis of Section 1115 waivers and evaluations posted to Medicaid.gov and state websites.

How Could $400 Billion New Federal Dollars Change Medicaid Home and Community-Based Services?

Author: MaryBeth Musumeci
Published: Jul 16, 2021

At the end of March 2021, the Biden Administration announced the American Jobs Plan, which includes $400 billion to expand access to Medicaid home and community-based services (HCBS) for seniors and people with disabilities and strengthen the direct care workforce. The Better Care Better Jobs Act, recently introduced by Democratic lawmakers, outlines three provisions to implement President Biden’s American Jobs Plan HCBS proposal. The major provision is a new “HCBS Infrastructure Improvement Program,” which offers permanent enhanced federal Medicaid matching funds for HCBS if states choose to participate and meet certain requirements. The other provisions would make both Money Follows the Person and the requirement for states to apply spousal impoverishment protections to HCBS permanent.

HCBS assist with self-care, such as eating and bathing, and household activities, such as preparing meals, for people who need help with these tasks due to health or functional needs. Most HCBS are provided through Medicaid and are not covered by other payers, including Medicare. States can offer Medicaid HCBS as state plan benefits, which must be provided to all enrollees who qualify, and waivers, which allow states to target services to specific populations, expand income and asset limits, and set enrollment caps. The new proposal responds to growing demands for HCBS stemming from the disproportionate number of COVID-19 cases and deaths among people in nursing homes and other congregate settings, the growing elderly population, and the unmet need for community-based care that preceded the pandemic.

The proposal also aims to expand and strengthen caregiving jobs supported by Medicaid HCBS. Like people who rely on HCBS, direct care workers who provide these services have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic. The workforce is predominantly female, low-wage, and people of color. Home care workers earned on average $11.52 per hour, or $16,200 per year, in 2018. Despite the ongoing unmet need for HCBS, which is expected to grow with the increasing senior population, states regularly cite workforce shortages as a barrier to expanding HCBS. This issue brief places the American Jobs Plan in the context of current Medicaid HCBS spending and considers how policymakers might allocate the new funding (Figure 1), drawing on the provisions of the recently introduced Better Care Better Jobs Act.

Figure 1: Better Care Better Jobs Act Proposal for New $400 Billion in Federal Medicaid Home and Community-Based Services

How much does Medicaid spend for HCBS?

Medicaid HCBS spending is estimated to be about $114 billion in FY 2021, before the increase from the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) (discussed below). Medicaid funds the majority (57%) of HCBS, with private insurance covering 12% and 7% paid out-of-pocket.1  State Medicaid programs must cover long-term services and supports (LTSS) in nursing homes, while most HCBS are optional, resulting in substantial variation across states. State HCBS programs face a number of challenges, including waiting lists for waiver services, direct care workforce shortages (which predated and have been exacerbated by the pandemic), and a lack of affordable, accessible community-based housing. Nationally, more than half of Medicaid LTSS spending is for community-based care. Like other Medicaid services, costs are shared between the states and the federal government.

The ARPA provides an additional 10 percentage point increase in federal matching funds for state spending on HCBS from April 2021 through March 2022, an estimated $11.4 billion increase in federal spending nationally. Under the ARPA, states must maintain their current spending levels and use the increased funds “to enhance, expand, or strengthen” HCBS. Due to the 1-year time limit on ARPA funds, states may be more likely to adopt policies to directly address the pandemic, such as providing hazard or overtime pay to direct care workers or offering targeted services such as home-delivered meals or assistive technology, as opposed to dedicating funds to serving more HCBS enrollees over the longer-term.

The new $400 billion in federal funds from the American Jobs Plan proposal could increase annual spending for HCBS in Medicaid by at least 33% annually, and by even more if state spending also increases. If the new funding were evenly spent over the next 10 years and allocated entirely through the Medicaid program, that would equate to new federal HCBS spending of $40 billion per year on top of the $114 billion baseline plus the $11.4 billion from the ARPA.

How could new HCBS funds be used?

The Better Care Better Jobs Act, recently introduced by Democratic lawmakers, outlines three provisions to expand and strengthen Medicaid HCBS and the direct care workforce, as proposed in President Biden’s American Jobs Plan (Figure 1). The major provision, which would account for most of the funding, is a new “HCBS Infrastructure Improvement Program,” which offers permanent enhanced federal Medicaid matching funds for HCBS if states choose to participate and meet certain requirements. The other provisions would make both Money Follows the Person and the requirement for states to apply spousal impoverishment protections to HCBS permanent.

The HCBS Infrastructure Improvement Program proposed in the Better Care Better Jobs Act includes a permanent 10 percentage point increase in federal Medicaid matching funds for HCBS for states with Secretary-approved plans to expand and strengthen HCBS.2  Like the temporary ARPA increase, the new increase would stack on top of other increases and be capped at 95%. The new program is designed so that states could continue to access an additional 10 percentage point increase in federal funding for HCBS after the ARPA provision expires (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Availability of 10 Percentage Point Medicaid HCBS Federal Funding Increase as Proposed in Better Care Better Jobs Act

The bill allows states to continue to receive a 10 percentage point increase in federal Medicaid matching funds for HCBS after the ARPA provision expires, while states are developing their HCBS Infrastructure Improvement Program plans. States must continue to maintain existing HCBS eligibility and benefits while receiving the enhanced federal funds. The bill includes $100 million for state planning grants to be awarded within one year of enactment. States would have two years to submit their plans, and the Secretary is directed to approve plans as long as they are complete and contain assurances that states will meet the program requirements. State plans must describe their current Medicaid HCBS program, how the state will meet annual measures and benchmarks, and the state’s goals for improving HCBS. Plans must consider people currently on Medicaid HCBS waiver waiting lists as well as those who would be eligible but are not currently on a waiting list and any HCBS that are provided in other states but not in the planning grant state.

States with Secretary-approved HCBS Infrastructure Improvement Plans could continue to receive the 10 percentage point increase in federal matching funds for HCBS as they implement their plans. Specifically, states would have to continue to maintain existing HCBS eligibility and benefits as well as engage in activities to expand HCBS access,3  strengthen the direct care workforce,4  and monitor HCBS quality (Figure 3). States also would have to provide an annual report on their HCBS program to the Secretary beginning in the 5th fiscal year of their program participation. Additionally, states would have to report on the following four benchmarks to continue receiving the enhanced federal funds after seven years of program participation:

  • Increased availability of HCBS relative to the date of the state improvement plan;
  • Increased access to and utilization of HCBS by populations identified as having the lowest access and utilization in the state improvement plan;
  • Evidence that the majority of direct care workers receive competitive wages and benefits; and
  • The share of LTSS spending devoted to HCBS. States that spent less than 50% of their LTSS dollars on HCBS at the time of their improvement plan must increase their HCBS spending to at least 50%. States that spent more than 50% of their LTSS dollars on HCBS at the time of their improvement plan must maintain that share.
Figure 3: Better Care Better Jobs Act HCBS Improvement Program State Requirements for Enhanced Federal Funding

States with Secretary-approved plans also could receive additional enhanced federal matching funds to support self-direction and for HCBS administrative costs. States that adopt a program to support self-direction could receive an additional two percentage point increase in federal matching funds for one year, capped at 95%. Self-direction program activities include offering a worker registry and independent provider recruitment and training, engaging in quality oversight, coordinating with other state agencies and providers, establishing an “agency with choice” model, supporting family caregivers (if the state allows them to be paid providers), and ensuring that state policies allow for cooperation with or are neutral toward organized labor. Separately, all states with Secretary-approved plans could receive enhanced federal funds for administrative costs, increased from 50% to 80%. Administrative costs could include data and technology infrastructure, modifications to rate setting processes, quality measures, worker training, and worker registries.

Extending Medicaid’s Money Follows the Person (MFP) program is the one specific policy proposal in the American Jobs Plan, and the Better Care Better Jobs Act would make MFP permanent. MFP provides enhanced federal matching funds that, from 2008 through 2019, have helped over 101,000 seniors and people with disabilities across 44 states and DC moving from nursing homes to the community. States can fund services, such as first month’s rent and household set-up costs, and staff to help enrollees locate community housing. Program evaluations have found improved enrollee quality of life and cost savings after moves from institutions to the community, though repeated short-term extensions have created uncertainty for states. Affordable and accessible housing for low-income seniors and people with disabilities remains in short supply and presents a barrier to deinstitutionalization. While Medicaid does not pay for housing, many states have used MFP funds to hire housing coordinators to collaborate with affordable housing agencies and assist enrollees with locating community-based housing. A federal evaluation of MFP showed about 5,000 new participants in each six month period from December 2013 through December 2016, indicating a continuing need for the program. The aging of the population will also increase demand for the program. MFP currently expires in September 2023, with federal funding since 2007 totaling just under $6 billion over the entire period5  (a relatively small amount compared to the proposed $400 billion). The Better Care Better Jobs Act includes $450 million in federal funding for MFP for each fiscal year after FY 2021.

The Better Care Better Jobs Act would permanently extend the ACA change to Medicaid spousal impoverishment rules which requires states to treat HCBS and institutional care equally. To financially qualify for Medicaid LTSS, an individual must have low income and limited assets. When one spouse in a married couple needs LTSS, Medicaid spousal impoverishment rules protect some income and assets to support the other spouse’s living expenses. Since Congress enacted the spousal impoverishment rules in 1988, federal law has required states to apply them when a married individual seeks nursing home care. Prior to 2014, states had the option to apply the rules when a married individual sought home and-community based waiver services. However, since January 2014, the ACA has required states to apply the spousal impoverishment rules to HCBS waivers and also expanded the rules to apply to the Section 1915 (i) HCBS state plan option, Community First Choice (CFC) attendant care services and supports, and individuals eligible through a medically needy spend down. The ACA provision was set to expire at the end of 2018, but Congress subsequently adopted several short-term reauthorizations.

A KFF survey found that, as of 2018, some states may stop applying the spousal impoverishment rules to HCBS if Congress allowed the ACA provision to expire. At that time, 14 states expected that allowing the ACA provision to expire would affect Medicaid HCBS enrollees, for example by making fewer individuals eligible for waiver services. Additionally, eight states reported that the repeated temporary extensions resulted in confusion among enrollees and/or increased workload or administrative burdens for states.

Looking Ahead

If enacted, the American Jobs Plan HCBS proposal, as outlined in the Better Care Better Jobs Act, could build on the ARPA by adding further federal support for state efforts to increase access to Medicaid HCBS. With additional federal dollars available over a longer timespan, compared to the 1-year ARPA, states could be incentivized to expand HCBS eligibility by adopting new optional pathways, raising existing income or asset limits, or increasing waiver enrollment caps to serve more people and reduce waiting lists. States also could offer new optional HCBS, increase the scope of currently covered services, expand opportunities for enrollees to self-direct services, or offer supports to family caregivers such as respite care. Such initiatives could address Medicaid’s historical institutional bias by working to equalize access to HCBS. Expanding Medicaid HCBS also can help people with disabilities participate in the workforce, by offering services such as attendant care or supported employment, and help family members remain in the workforce instead of leaving paid employment to care for a child with disabilities or an aging relative. This proposal would mean an unprecedented $400 billion increase in federal spending on home and community-based services, and will likely face competition with other priorities as Congress considers a sweeping budget measure this year.

The new proposal could be an incremental step toward a larger goal of eliminating Medicaid’s historical institutional bias and making HCBS mandatory. In the near term, states, providers, health plans, and seniors and people with disabilities who need HCBS will be watching to see how the American Jobs Plan and the Better Care Better Jobs Act proposals continue to take shape in Congress. The new proposal includes a number of activities and benchmarks for states to meet, but also provides access to significant new funding through a permanent increase in federal Medicaid matching funds for HCBS, which could incentivize states to participate.

  1. KFF estimates based on 2019 National Health Expenditure Accounts data from CMS, Office of the Actuary. Spending totals may not align with other sources due to differences in state reporting or which services are included in the definition of HCBS. ↩︎
  2. HCBS eligible for the enhanced match include the following state plan services: home health, personal care, PACE, Section 1915 (i), Section 1915 (j) self-direction, Community First Choice attendant services, case management, targeted case management, and rehabilitative services including those related to behavioral health. HCBS authorized under Section 1915 (b) or (c) or 1115 waivers or provided through alternative benefit plans and other services specified by the Secretary also are eligible for the enhanced match. ↩︎
  3. For example, as of 2018, over ¾ of HCBS waivers set financial eligibility at the federal maximum (300% SSI), 34 states cover personal care state plan services, and 45 states offer a Medicaid eligibility buy-in pathway for working people with disabilities. ↩︎
  4. The bill defines the direct care workforce as direct support professionals, personal care attendants, direct care workers, home health aides, and any other relevant worked as determined by the HHS Secretary. ↩︎
  5. Deficit Reduction Act of 2005, § 6071, Pub. L. No. 109-171 (Feb. 8, 2006); Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act,  § 2403, Pub. L. No. 111-148 (March 23, 2010); Medicaid Extenders Act of 2019, § 3, Pub. L. No. 116-3 (Jan. 24, 2019); Medicaid Services Investment and Accountability Act of 2019, § 2, Pub. L. No. 116-16 (April 18, 2019); Sustaining Excellence in Medicaid Act of 2019, Pub. L. 116-39 (Aug. 6, 2019); Further Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2020, § 205, Pub. L. No. 116-94 (Dec. 20, 2019); CARES Act, § 3811, Pub. L. No. 116-136 (March 27, 2020); Continuing Appropriations Act of 2021, § 2301, Pub. L. No. 116-159 (Oct. 1, 2020); Further Continuing Appropriations Act of 2021, § 1107, Pub. L. No. 116-215 (Dec. 11, 2020); Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021, § 204, Pub. L. No. 116-260 (Dec. 27, 2020).   ↩︎
News Release

KFF/UNAIDS Analysis Finds That While Donor Government Spending on HIV Increased in 2020, Future Funding is Uncertain with COVID-19 Challenges

The increase was largely due to disbursement of prior-year multilateral funds. Bilateral funding from donor governments, other than the U.S., continues a downward trend.

Published: Jul 16, 2021

A new report from KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation) and The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) finds that donor government disbursements to combat HIV in low- and middle-income countries increased by US$377 million in 2020, reaching US$8.2 billion in 2020 compared to US$7.8 billion in 2019. Donor government funding supports HIV care and treatment, prevention, and other services in low- and middle-income countries.

The rise in funding is almost entirely the result of an increase in United States contributions to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, which was due largely to the disbursement of prior-year funding. U.S. disbursements to the Global Fund are not expected to remain at this level in 2021.

The United States continues to be the largest donor to HIV, accounting for 76% of all donor government funding, followed by the United Kingdom (US$612 million, 7%), Japan (US$258 million, 3%), Germany (US$246 million, 3%), and France (US$216 million, 3%). As other donor governments continue to pull back bilateral funding, the United States accounts for an increasing share of overall funding for HIV from donor governments.

The report reflects prior-year political and funding decisions and does not fully capture the impact of COVID-19 on donor funding decisions.

“While many donor governments are beginning to bounce back from the pandemic, its global impact and related recession make future funding for HIV response unpredictable,” said KFF Senior Vice President Jen Kates. “Not only are some low- and middle-income countries experiencing a ‘third-wave’ of COVID-19, vaccines remain largely out of reach, potentially leading to greater funding needs for HIV and other health services.”

“We are at a critical stage in the AIDS response as countries are confronting the huge challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Winnie Byanyima, Executive Director of UNAIDS. “But we do still have an opportunity to end the epidemic by 2030 if donors and countries alike commit to mobilize resources and prioritize health, human rights and equality which are the key components, not only to lead us out of the pandemics of HIV and COVID-19, but they are the cornerstone to economic recovery and security.”

These data are included in a broader UNAIDS global report, which examines all sources of funding for HIV relief, including local governments, non-governmental organizations, and the private sector, and compares it to the resources needed to achieve goals related to testing and treatment.

The new report, produced as a long-standing partnership between KFF and UNAIDS for more than 15 years, provides the latest data available on donor government funding based on data provided by governments. It includes their bilateral assistance to low- and middle-income countries and contributions to the Global Fund, UNAIDS, and UNITAID.  “Donor government funding” refers to disbursements, or payments, made by donors.

Donor Government Funding for HIV in Low- and Middle-Income Countries in 2020

Authors: Adam Wexler, Jennifer Kates, Eric Lief, and Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS)
Published: Jul 15, 2021

Key Findings

This report provides an analysis of donor government funding to address HIV in low- and middle-income countries in 2020, the latest year available, as well as trends over time. It includes both bilateral funding from donors and their contributions to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund), UNITAID, and UNAIDS. Key findings include the following:

  • IN A YEAR WHEN THE WORLD WAS UPENDED BY COVID-19, STRAINING COUNTRY ECONOMIES AND CHALLENGING THEIR HEALTH SYSTEMS, DONOR GOVERNMENT FUNDING FOR HIV INCREASED IN 2020. Disbursements were US$8.2 billion in 2020, an increase of US$377 million over 2019 (US$7.8 billion), in current U.S. dollars (funding was higher even after accounting for inflation and exchange rate fluctuations).
  • HOWEVER, THIS WAS DRIVEN ALMOST ENTIRELY BY INCREASED U.S. CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE GLOBAL FUND DUE PRIMARILY TO THE DISBURSEMENT OF PRIOR-YEAR FUNDING. The U.S. contribution to the Global Fund totaled US$1.1 billion in 2020, an increase of US$540 million over 2019 (US$552 million), as funds appropriated in prior years were disbursed, which is not expected to continue at this level in 2021.1 ,2  Three other donors (Japan, Germany, and the U.K.) also increased their Global Fund contributions in 2020.3 
  • ADDITIONALLY, BILATERAL FUNDING FROM DONOR GOVERNMENTS OTHER THAN THE U.S. DECLINED IN 2020, CONTINUING A LONGER-TERM TREND. Bilateral disbursements decreased by almost US$100 million, from US$5.7 billion in 2019 to US$5.6 billion in 2020. Thirteen of 14 donor governments decreased their bilateral support; funding from the U.S. was flat. Since 2010, bilateral funding from donor governments other than the U.S. has declined by more than US$1 billion, while U.S. funding has remained at essentially the same levels.
  • AS SUCH, THE U.S. IS NOT ONLY THE LARGEST DONOR TO HIV, EVEN AFTER ADJUSTING FOR THE SIZE OF ITS ECONOMY, IT IS CARRYING AN INCREASING SHARE OF THE INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE. In 2020, the U.S. disbursed US$6.2 billion, accounting for 76% of total donor government HIV funding (bilateral and multilateral combined). The U.K. was the second largest donor (US$612 million, 7%), followed by Japan (US$258 million, 3%), Germany (US$246 million, 3%), and France (US$216 million, 3%). The U.S. also ranked first when standardized by the size of its economy, followed by the U.K., the Netherlands, and Sweden. Over the past decade, the U.S. share of donor government funding for HIV has grown significantly (the U.S. share was 54% in 2010), as other donor governments have pulled back their support.
  • THE OUTLOOK FOR 2021 AND BEYOND IS UNCERTAIN, GIVEN THE ONGOING EFFECTS OF COVID-19. While many donor government economies are starting to rebound from the global economic recession brought on by COVID-19, recovery still remains below pre-pandemic projections, and the environment is fluid.4  This creates significant uncertainty for development aid budgets, including for HIV. Importantly, the increases reported in this year’s report largely reflect prior-year political decisions and the timing of payouts of prior-year funds. As such, they do not yet capture the economic impact of COVID-19 on donor budgeting decisions. In addition, the future impact of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries remains tenuous, with some experiencing a “third-wave” and most not expected to gain access to vaccines in any significant way for months if not years. This could lead to even greater funding needs for HIV and other health programs. At the same time, several donor governments have provided emergency COVID-19 support to low- and middle-income countries, some of which may help to address lost ground in the HIV response; this includes, for example, emergency funding provided by the U.S. in 2021 to both PEPFAR and the Global Fund. These factors make it difficult to predict what the ultimate impact will be on funding for HIV in the future.
  1. Donor government contributions to the Global Fund and UNITAID have been adjusted for an HIV-share to account for the fact that these multilateral organizations address other diseases and areas (see Methodology). ↩︎
  2. In 2021, the U.S. Congress appropriated an additional $3.5 billion in funding (beyond its regular contribution supporting HIV, TB, and malaria activities, which was flat in 2021 compared to the 2020 amount) to support the Global Fund’s efforts to address the COVID-19 pandemic. This funding is not included because it is for COVID-specific activities and cannot be attributed to HIV. ↩︎
  3. In 2020, some donor governments provided COVID-specific emergency contributions to the Global Fund and UNITAID in addition to their contributions for core activities. Specifically, France and Norway provided COVID-specific funding to UNITAID, while Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Norway, and Sweden provided COVID-specific funding to the Global Fund. For the purposes of this report, these COVID-specific amounts have been excluded as they cannot be attributed to a specific area, such as HIV. ↩︎
  4. World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, June 2021. ↩︎

House Appropriations Committee Releases FY 2022 Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies (LHHS) Appropriations Bill

Published: Jul 14, 2021

The House Appropriations Committee released the FY 2022 Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies (LHHS) appropriations bill on July 11, 2021 and accompanying report on July 14, 2021. The LHHS appropriations bill includes funding for U.S. global health programs provided to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and funding for global health research activities provided to the National Institutes of Health (NIH).[i] Key highlights of known amounts are as follows (see table for additional detail):

  • Funding provided in the bill to CDC for global health totals $842.8 million, which would be an increase of $250 million (42%) above the FY 2021 enacted level ($592.8 million) and $145 million (21%) above the President’s FY 2022 request ($697.8 million). The increase is almost entirely for funding for the global public health protection program. Key highlights are as follows:
    • Funding for the global public health protection program, which includes funding for global health security, totals $448.2 million, $245 million (121%) above the FY 2021 enacted level ($203 million) and $145 million (48%) above the FY 2022 Request ($303 million).[ii]
    • Funding for global HIV/AIDS totals $128.4 million, matching the FY 2021 enacted level and FY 2022 Request.
    • Funding for global tuberculosis (TB) totals $9.2 million, matching the FY 2021 enacted and FY 2022 Request levels.
    • Funding for global immunization totals $226 million, matching the FY 2021 enacted level and FY 2022 Request levels. Within this total are the following:
      • Funding for polio totals $176 million, matching the FY 2021 enacted level and FY 2022 Request levels.
      • Funding for CDC’s other global vaccines/measles program totals $50 million, matching the FY 2021 enacted level and FY 2022 Request levels.
    • Funding for parasitic diseases and malaria totals $31 million, $5 million (19%) above the FY 2021 enacted level and matching the FY 2022 Request.
  • Funding for the Fogarty International Center (FIC) at NIH totals $96.8 million, a $12.8 million (15%) increase above the FY 2021 enacted level and essentially matching the FY 2022 Request ($96.3 million). Other global health research amounts are not available.

Resources:

  • FY2020 Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education Appropriations Bill
  • FY2020 Labor, Health and Human Services, and Education Appropriations Report

The table (.xlsx) below compares global health funding in the FY 2022 House LHHS appropriations bill to the FY 2021 enacted funding amounts as outlined in the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2020” (P.L. 116-260; KFF summary here) and the President’s FY 2022 request (KFF summary here).

See KFF’s related summary on the FY 2022 House SFOPs appropriations bill here. See the KFF budget tracker for details on historical annual appropriations for global health programs.

Table: KFF Analysis of FY22 House Appropriations for Global Health
Department / Agency / AreaFY21Enacted(millions)FY22Request(millions)FY22House(millions)Difference(millions)
FY22 House– FY21 EnactedFY22 House– FY22 Request
Labor Health & Human Services (Labor HHS)
Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) – Total Global Health$592.8$697.8$842.8$250 (42.2%)$145 (20.8%)
Global HIV/AIDS$128.4$128.4$128.4$0(0%)$0(0%)
Global Tuberculosis$9.2$9.2$9.2$0(0.2%)$0(0%)
Global Immunization$226.0$226.0$226.0$0(0%)$0(0%)
Polio$176.0$176.0$176.0$0(0%)$0(0%)
Other Global Vaccines/Measles$50.0$50.0$50.0$0(0%)$0(0%)
Parasitic Diseases$26.0$31.0$31.0$5(19.2%)$0(0%)
Global Public Health Protection$203.2$303.2$448.2$245(120.6%)$145(47.8%)
Global Disease Detection and Emergency Response$193.4$293.4Not specified – –
of which Global Health Security (GHS)Not specifiedNot specifiedNot specified – –
Global Public Health Capacity Development$9.8$9.8Not specified – –
National Institutes of Health (NIH) – Total Global Health$892.8Not specifiedNot specified – –
HIV/AIDS$616.7$617.1Not specified – –
Malaria$192.0Not specifiedNot specified – –
Fogarty International Center (FIC)$84.0$96.3$96.8$12.8(15.2%)$0.5(0.5%)

[i] The majority of funding for global health research activities at NIH, including funding for HIV/AIDS and malaria, is not yet known because it is not specified in the FY22 House LHHS bill and is determined at the agency level.

[ii] Funding for “Global Public Health Protection,” includes “Global Disease Detection and Emergency Response,” “Global Health Security,” and “Global Public Health Capacity”. The full breakdown among areas is not yet known for the House FY22 bill.

Funding for Key HIV Commodities in PEPFAR Countries

Authors: Stephanie Oum, Alicia Carbaugh, and Jennifer Kates
Published: Jul 14, 2021

Key Findings

  • In many low- and middle-income countries, PEPFAR and the Global Fund are significant funders of commodities to diagnose, treat, and prevent HIV, along with country governments. But, information on their relative contributions, which is important for assessing the HIV response, is not readily available. We analyzed data from PEPFAR documents on funding for key HIV commodities in 34 PEPFAR countries to better understand the funding landscape.
  • Overall, we find that funding for HIV commodities in these countries was estimated to total more than $3 billion among PEPFAR countries required to submit 2019 Country and Regional Operating Plans. Almost two-thirds was for antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) (64% or $1.95 billion), followed by lab and diagnostic products (26% or $779 million). Funding for each of the other commodity types was 6% or less.
  • While PEPFAR is the largest funder of HIV efforts in the world, it was not the dominant funder overall for HIV commodities in PEPFAR countries. Country governments were the largest funder of HIV commodities (44% or $1.3 billion), followed by the Global Fund (31%), and PEPFAR (24%). Overall, South Africa’s domestic government funding accounted for 56% of all country government commodity support. When commodity funding for South Africa is removed from the analysis, the Global Fund was the top funder and PEPFAR was second.
  • The main funder varied by commodity. For example, PEPFAR accounted for the largest share of funding for voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC)-related commodities in countries with a VMMC program, and the Global Fund accounted for the largest share of funding for condoms and lubricants. While country governments accounted for the largest overall share of ARV funding, the Global Fund was the top ARV funder when South Africa was removed.
  • The main funder also varied somewhat by country. The Global Fund provided the largest share of commodity funding in most PEPFAR countries (21 of 34), followed by country governments (8 of 34) and PEPFAR (5 of 34).
  • As we find here, PEPFAR is not the dominant funder of HIV commodities in most of the countries where it works, although PEPFAR often funds many of the associated services needed to support the delivery and use of commodities and, as the main donor to the Global Fund, indirectly funds a larger share of commodities in PEPFAR countries. These findings could help to inform assessments of the sustainability of HIV efforts, decision-making about the most effective division of commodity funding between purchasers, and opportunities for better coordination and synergy in the future, particularly given concerns about overall HIV funding in low- and middle-income countries.

Issue Brief

Introduction

Global HIV/AIDS programs depend on having a reliable supply of health commodities, including essential medicines and other products, to prevent, diagnose, and treat HIV. Key commodities in the HIV/AIDS response include: antiretroviral drugs (ARVs), condoms and lubricants, laboratory and diagnostic products (including rapid test kits and viral load commodities), and voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) supplies, among others. PEPFAR, along with the Global Fund, to which the U.S. is the largest donor, is a critical source of funding for key commodities, as well as associated services, in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), sometimes supplementing country government funding or supporting most of a country’s effort.1  However, information on their relative roles is not readily available. Such data are important for assessing the HIV response, particularly given concerns about overall global funding for HIV, which has declined in recent years.2 

We sought to better understand PEPFAR’s role, relative to the Global Fund and country governments, in directly funding HIV-related commodities in PEPFAR countries (as the largest donor to the Global Fund, PEPFAR indirectly funds a larger share of commodities in the countries in which it works). To do so, we analyzed data from PEPFAR’s 2019 Country and Regional Operating Plan (COP and ROP) Strategic Direction Summaries (SDS) (“COP19”).3  These are documents submitted by PEPFAR country teams, as part of their larger COP/ROP submission, which describe a country’s strategic plan for the coming year, as well as provide a framework for how the country will measure progress. The SDS includes data on funding for commodities by source. We used these data to assess the relative shares of funding by source and by commodity in the 34 countries required to develop a COP or ROP in 2019, and which provided data on commodity funding distribution (an additional 20 countries were required to submit a COP or ROP in 2019 but did not provide these data).4  These 34 countries represented 67% of all people living with HIV and over half (approximately 54%) of new infections globally in 2019.5 

Data extraction and cleaning were conducted jointly by KFF and amfAR, and the final dataset is housed on amfAR’s site here. Data were extracted as reported in the 2019 COP/ROP SDS documents, but not validated beyond these sources. In some cases, data were presented in dollar amounts and in others, as percentages of total funding. We computed both percent and dollar values where needed; percent totals may not sum to 100%.6  We grouped commodities into six broad categories: ARVs; condoms and lubricants; lab and diagnostic products; other commodities; other drugs; and VMMC products (see Box). All 34 countries provided data on ARVs; 33 for lab diagnostic and products; 29 countries for condoms7  and lubricants; 28 for other drugs; 19 for other commodities;8  and 13 for VMMC commodities.9 

BOX: DESCRIPTION OF KEY HIV COMMODITIES

Antiretrovirals (ARVs)—ARVs are medicines to treat HIV, including pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP), and first, second, and third line ARVs.

Condoms & Lubricants—Condoms and lubricants include both male and female condoms and personal lubricants.

Lab & Diagnostic Products—Lab & diagnostic products include rapid test kits, self-test kits, and HIV test kits; viral load commodities; blood safety supplies, including CD4 reagents and products; early infant diagnosis (EID); chemistry and lab reagents, equipment, services, supplies, and samples; and recency tests.

Other Commodities—Other commodities include health equipment, hepatitis-related commodities, condom testing machines, cervical cancer supplies, needles and syringes, TB or GeneXpert commodities, and general commodities that don’t fall under other specific categories.

Other Drugs—Other drugs include medication assisted therapy (MAT), opportunistic infection (OI) drugs, medicines for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and STI kits, and other general drugs.

Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC)—VMMC is an HIV prevention tool and includes VMMC kits and related commodities and medicines for VMMC.

Key Findings

Funding for HIV commodities in 34 PEPFAR countries was estimated to total more than $3 billion ($3,051,168,558) from all sources in the 2019 COP/ROPs.

  • Funding ranged from $709,000 in Tajikistan to $762 million in South Africa (See Figure 1).
  • 10 countries accounted for 76% of all funding for commodities.
Funding for Key Commodities by Country in 2019

Almost two-thirds of commodity funding was for ARVs (64%), followed by lab and diagnostic products (26%). Funding for each of the other commodity types was 6% or less. 

  • Overall, ARVs accounted for 64% ($1.95 billion) of funding for all commodities in 2019 (See Figure 2). Lab and diagnostic products represented the second largest share (26% or $779 million), followed by other drugs (6% or $177 million), and condoms and lubricants (2% or $59 million).
  • ARVs represented the largest share of commodity funding in almost all (29 of the 34) PEPFAR countries included in this analysis (See Figure 3).
Funding for Key Commodities by Commodity Type in 2019
Largest Funded Commodity by Country in 2019

While PEPFAR is the largest single funder of HIV efforts in the world, it was not the dominant funder overall for HIV commodities in these 34 countries. Rather, in aggregate, country governments provided the largest share of commodity funding (44%), followed by the Global Fund (31%) and then PEPFAR (24%). Excluding the South Africa program, whose funding accounts for nearly a quarter of total funding for commodities across the 34 countries and almost exclusively from domestic resources, the Global Fund was the top funder and PEPFAR was second.

  • Funding from country governments totaled an estimated $1.3 billion (44%), followed by the Global Fund ($935 million or 31%), PEPFAR ($735 million or 24%), and other sources ($39 million or 1.3%) (See Figure 4).
  • This is primarily due to the significant role played by the South African government in funding HIV-related commodities. In 2019, the South African government’s commodity contribution ($746 million) accounted for almost all of the country’s commodity funding (98% of $762 million), 56% of total country government commodity funding ($1.3 billion), and nearly a quarter (24%) of funding for all commodities across the 34 countries ($3 billion). With South Africa removed from the analysis, PEPFAR was the second largest funder of commodities ($729 million or 32%), after the Global Fund ($924 million or 40%) (See Figure 5).
Funding for Key Commodities by Source Funder in 2019
Funding for Key Commodities by Source Funder in 2019 (South Africa removed)

The main funder varied by commodity. For example, PEPFAR was the largest funder of VMMC-related commodities in the group of countries with VMMC programs and the Global Fund was the largest of condoms and lubricants. In most cases, though, the order changed when South Africa was removed.

  • ARVs. The largest funder of ARVs was country governments, which accounted for 45% of all ARV funding, followed by the Global Fund (33%), PEPFAR (21%), and other sources (<1%) (See Figure 6). With South Africa removed, the Global Fund becomes the largest funder (45%), followed by PEPFAR (29%) (See Figure 7).
  • Condoms and Lubricants. The Global Fund was the largest funder of condoms and lubricants (38%), followed by country governments (24%), PEPFAR (22%), and other sources (15%) (see Figure 6). With South Africa removed, PEPFAR was the second largest funder (See Figure 7).
  • Lab and Diagnostic Products. Country governments were the largest funder of lab and diagnostic products (44%), followed by PEPFAR (30%), the Global Fund (24%), and other sources (2.5%) (See Figure 6). Without South Africa, PEPFAR moves to the top (See Figure 7).
  • VMMC Commodities. Among the 13 countries that reported funding on VMMC commodities,10  PEPFAR was by far the largest payer of VMMC-related commodities (75%), followed by the Global Fund (19%), and country governments (6%) (See Figure 6). The shares, but not order, of the distribution shifts slightly without South Africa (See Figure 7).
  • Other Commodities and Other Drugs. Among the 19 countries that specified funding for other commodities in 2019,11  the Global Fund was the largest funder of other commodities (48%), followed by country governments (27%), PEPFAR (22%), and other sources (3.3%) (See Figure 6). The largest funder of other drugs was country governments (54%), followed by the Global Fund (25%), PEPFAR (19%), and other sources (2.6%) (See Figure 6). (South Africa did not report funding in these areas).
Source Funding by Commodity Type in 2019

  • The Global Fund was the largest funder of commodities in 21 of the 34 countries, followed by country governments (8 of 34), and PEPFAR (5 of 34) (See Figure 8). The Global Fund accounted for more than half of all commodity funding in 15 of the 34 countries.
  • The Global Fund also was the largest funder for each commodity type in the majority of countries, with the exception of VMMC commodities, where PEPFAR was the largest funder in most countries that had a VMMC program (See Figures 8 and 9). For example, for ARVs, the Global Fund was the dominant funder in 18 countries and PEPFAR in 7 countries. For lab and diagnostic commodities, the Global Fund was the dominant funder in 18 countries and PEPFAR in 9 countries.
Main Funder of Commodities Overall and by Type for PEPFAR Countries in 2019
Number of Countries where Source Funder is Largest Funder of a Particular Commodity in 2019

Looking Ahead

HIV-related commodities play a key role in the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of the disease. As shown above, the commodity landscape varies greatly in PEPFAR countries. This variation is likely due to a range of factors, including the context of local HIV epidemics, the evolution of the HIV response in each country, availability of funding from different sources, and the priorities of funders, including of country governments. Given the lack of a cure or vaccine for HIV and millions of people with or at risk for HIV, the importance of funding currently available commodities will continue for some time but may be more challenging in an environment of flat or declining funding.

While PEPFAR is the single largest HIV funder in the world, as we find here, it is not the dominant funder, at least not directly, of HIV commodities in most of the countries in which it works. Rather, the Global Fund and country governments play the main role. At the same time, PEPFAR often funds many of the associated services (e.g., supply chains, laboratory facilities, and health care personnel) that are needed to support the delivery and use of commodities. In addition, given that PEPFAR is the largest donor to the Global Fund, it plays a more significant indirect role in the Global Fund’s support for commodities in PEPFAR countries. Going forward, these findings could help to inform policymakers, implementers, and others as they make decisions about future directions for the HIV response, including assessments of: the appropriate balance of funding for commodities between PEPFAR and the Global Fund; coordination of commodity procurement and provision at the global and country levels; whether current arrangements are best from a sustainability perspective; and how changes in overall funding for commodities or the current payer mix, might affect continuity of services.

Endnotes

  1. KFF, u201cThe U.S. Presidentu2019s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR)u201d fact sheet, May 2020. PEPFAR, PEPFAR 2019 Country Operational Plan Guidance for all PEPFAR Countries. ↩︎
  2. Global HIV funding in LMICs has been largely flat over the years and declined between 2017 and 2019. KFF. Donor Government Funding for HIV in Low- and Middle-Income Countries in 2019, July 2020. ↩︎
  3. Funding totals represent amounts reported in countriesu2019 PEPFAR 2019 COP/ROPs (u201cCOP19u201d) for implementation in FY 2020. All references to 2019 throughout this analysis refer to data presented in 2019 COP/ROP documents. The underlying source of these data varies considerably. In some cases, countries used data from previous years, while in others, the data are a result of planning and negotiations with national stakeholders and the Global Fund. ↩︎
  4. Zimbabwe reports total funding need, which includes the percent covered by each funding source as well as the gap in funding. For the purposes of this analysis, we removed the percent gap in funding; consequently, Zimbabweu2019s total expenditure on key commodities is lower than what is reported in its SDS. Eswatini only reports 75% of expenditures for condoms, all of which is supported by PEPFAR. We categorized the remaining 25% as u201cOther Funder,u201d as Eswatiniu2019s SDS states u201cit is not expected that there will be a gap in condom supply because PEPFAR will continue to support the optimization of access to low-cost condoms for clients who can afford to pay for condoms while ensuring that the no-cost condoms are distributed according to mapped need.u201d Nepal only reports 66% of its expenditures for u201cOther Drugs.u201d Given that there were no further details provided about the remaining 33%, the data is considered missing and not included in the analysis. ↩︎
  5. UNAIDS. AIDSinfo database, accessed May 2021. ↩︎
  6. Countries whose percentage totals do not sum to 100% include Burma, Cambodia, Eswatini, Jamaica, Lesotho, Nepal, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. ↩︎
  7. Most PEPFAR countries order condoms through USAIDu2019s Commodity Fund. It is possible that there may be inconsistency among countries on how condoms procured through USAIDu2019s Commodity Fund are accounted for in the SDSs; for instance, some countries may call them PEPFAR-supported procurement and others may categorize them as u201cOther.u201d We interpret the funding amounts reported in the SDSs at face value. PEPFAR, 2019 Country Operational Plan Guidance for all PEPFAR Countries. ↩︎
  8. Numerous countries did not report data for u201cOther Commoditiesu201d. In some cases, the lack of data might indicate $0 expenditures. As it was not clear, we assumed that any data denoted by a u201c-u201c or u201cN/Au201d in the SDSs were true u201cN/Au201d and noted it as such in this analysis. We applied this assumption to u201c-u201c and u201cN/Au201d in other categories as well. ↩︎
  9. According to the 2019 COP Guidance, PEPFAR concentrates its VMMC programs in 14 priority countries. Also, data for PEPFAR-supported VMMC procedures in these countries for 2019 is included in PEPFARu2019s online Panorama Spotlight Dashboard. Twelve of these countries provided VMMC commodity funding data in their 2019 SDSs; two countries, Kenya and Ethiopia, did not provide data on VMMC commodity funding in their 2019 SDSs. According to Ethiopiau2019s SDS, Ethiopia used non-COP resources for its VMMC program. South Sudan, while not noted as one of the 14 priority countries where PEPFAR concentrated its VMMC efforts in 2019, provided funding data on VMMC in its 2019 COP. We included South Sudanu2019s data as reported in the analysis. ↩︎
  10. According to the 2019 COP Guidance, PEPFAR concentrates its VMMC programs in 14 priority countries. Also, data for PEPFAR-supported VMMC procedures in these countries for 2019 is included in PEPFARu2019s online Panorama Spotlight Dashboard. Twelve of these countries provided VMMC commodity funding data in their 2019 SDSs; two countries, Kenya and Ethiopia, did not provide data on VMMC commodity funding in their 2019 SDSs. According to Ethiopiau2019s SDS, Ethiopia used non-COP resources for its VMMC program. South Sudan, while not noted as one of the 14 priority countries where PEPFAR concentrated its VMMC efforts in 2019, provided funding data on VMMC in its 2019 COP. We included South Sudanu2019s data as reported in the analysis. ↩︎
  11. Numerous countries did not report data for u201cOther Commoditiesu201d. In some cases, the lack of data might indicate $0 expenditures. As it was not clear, we assumed that any data denoted by a u201c-u201c or u201cN/Au201d in the SDSs were true u201cN/Au201d and noted it as such in this analysis. We applied this assumption to u201c-u201c and u201cN/Au201d in other categories as well. ↩︎
Poll Finding

Health and Health Care Experiences of Hispanic Adults

Authors: Samantha Artiga, Liz Hamel, Audrey Kearney, Mellisha Stokes, and Alauna Safarpour
Published: Jul 14, 2021

Findings

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a stark disproportionate toll on people of color, including the Hispanic population. These disparate impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have exposed and exacerbated longstanding underlying disparities in health and health care facing Hispanic people. Prior to the pandemic, these disparities had already been compounded by immigration policies implemented during the Trump administration that increased fears among immigrant families and made some more reluctant to access programs and services, including health coverage and health care. Although the Biden administration has since reversed many of these policies, they likely continue to have lingering effects.

This report provides insights into the health care experiences of Hispanic adults amid the current environment and examines how they vary by key factors, including insurance and immigration status. A prior report examined the health and economic impacts of COVID-19 for Hispanic adults and their attitudes, experiences with, and barriers to getting COVID-19 vaccinations. This report from the KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor is based on interviews with 778 Hispanic adults in the U.S., including 334 conducted in Spanish, 392 with adults born outside the U.S., including 185 who indicated that they do not have lawful permanent resident status (referred to in this report as “potentially undocumented”).1 

Employment and Income

Individuals’ employment and income affect access to health insurance and ability to afford health care. People in lower wage jobs are less likely to be offered health insurance by their employer and may have more difficulty affording it when it is offered due to their limited incomes. Moreover, people with limited incomes may face more challenges paying for health care costs.

Although Hispanic adults are as likely as White adults to say they are employed, they are more likely to report living in a lower income household. Over half (54%) of Hispanic adults say they are employed, similar to the shares of Black (52%) and White (54%) adults (Figure 1). Among Hispanic adults, nearly six in ten (57%) potentially undocumented Hispanic adults say they are employed, similar to the shares among Hispanics who are U.S.-born (54%) and who are lawful permanent residents (50%). Employed Hispanic adults are more likely than employed White adults to say they currently work solely at a location outside their home (69% vs. 57%), contributing to increased risk of exposure amid the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly for those who are unvaccinated. Among employed Hispanic adults, those who are potentially undocumented are more likely to say they are currently working outside the home—84% of potentially undocumented employed Hispanic adults say they work only outside the home compared to 60% of employed U.S.-born Hispanic adults.

Similar Shares Across Ethnicity, Immigration Status Report Being Employed

Despite being as likely as White adults to report being employed, about half (52%) of Hispanic adults say their annual household income is less than $40,000 compared to 29% of White adults (Figure 2). Nearly eight in ten (78%) potentially undocumented Hispanic adults report annual household income of less than $40,000, compared to 60% of lawful permanent residents and 40% of U.S.-born Hispanic adults.

Nearly Eight In Ten Potentially Undocumented Hispanic Adults In The U.S. Have Household Incomes Below $40,000

Health Coverage and Program Participation

Health insurance makes a difference in whether and when people get necessary medical care, where they get their care, and ultimately, how healthy they are. Uninsured adults are far more likely than those with insurance to postpone health care or forgo it altogether. Hispanic people have faced longstanding disparities in health coverage. They were more likely than their White counterparts to be uninsured prior to the pandemic and faced widening gaps in coverage between 2018 and 2019. These coverage declines may, in part, reflect changes to immigration policy, particularly the “public charge” policy under the Trump administration, which contributed to growing fears among immigrant families about participating in public programs, including health coverage. Although the Biden administration has since reversed many of these policies, they may continue to have lingering effects. Further, the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have likely contributed to additional coverage losses that may further widen disparities in coverage for Hispanic people.

Three in ten nonelderly Hispanic adults (31%) say they are uninsured compared to 15% of Black adults and 9% of White adults (Figure 3). The share reporting they don’t have health insurance is much higher among nonelderly Hispanic adults who are potentially undocumented (71%) and somewhat higher among those who are lawful permanent residents (31%) compared to U.S.-born Hispanic adults (18%).

Three In Ten Nonelderly Hispanic Adults Report Being Uninsured, Rising To Seven In Ten Among Potentially Undocumented

These patterns likely reflect more limited access to employer-sponsored coverage among foreign-born Hispanic adults, due to higher rates of employment in low-wage jobs that are less likely to offer health coverage, as well as more limited access to and barriers to enrolling in public coverage options. Lawfully present immigrants may qualify for Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program, but many, including most lawful permanent residents, must wait five years after obtaining a qualified immigration status before they may enroll. Lawfully present immigrants can purchase coverage through the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces and may receive subsidies for this coverage, including those who are not eligible for Medicaid or CHIP because they are in the five-year waiting period. Although lawfully present immigrants are eligible for coverage, they face a range of potential enrollment barriers, including fear, confusion about eligibility policies, difficulty navigating the enrollment process, and language and literacy challenges. Undocumented immigrants are not eligible to enroll in Medicaid or CHIP or to purchase coverage through the ACA marketplaces.

Some Hispanic adults, particularly those who are potentially undocumented, report that they have avoided seeking assistance for food, housing, and/or health care due to immigration-related fears. One in ten Hispanic adults (11%) say there was there a time in the past 3 years when they or a family member decided not to apply for or stopped participating in a government assistance program because they were afraid it might negatively affect their or a family member’s immigration status (Figure 4). Across Hispanic adults overall, 6% say they did not apply for or stopped participating a program to help with food, 4% say assistance for housing, and 3% say a health care program. The share saying they or a family member did not apply for or stopped participating in a program in the past 3 years due to immigration-related fears increased to 13% among lawful permanent residents and 26% among potentially undocumented Hispanic adults. Overall, 21% of potentially undocumented Hispanic adults say they did not apply for or stopped participating in a program to help with food, 12% say assistance for housing, and 11% say a health care program.

One Quarter Of Potentially Undocumented Hispanic Adults Say They Or A Family Member Did Not Participate In An Assistance Program Due To Immigration Fears

Access to and Experiences Obtaining Health Care

Beyond health coverage, other factors such as having a usual source for health care, accessibility of health care provider locations, and affordability of care have implications for individuals’ access to and use of care, including preventive and primary care as well as care for chronic conditions. Further, individuals’ experiences and relationships with health care providers, including patient-provider communications, can affect the quality of care they receive, their satisfaction with care, and health outcomes.

Usual Source of Care

A usual source of care is a health care provider where people usually go when they are sick or need advice about their health. Research finds that people with a usual source of care are more likely than those without a usual source to get care and less likely to have difficulty obtaining care or to go without receiving needed services.

Hispanic adults, particularly those who are potentially undocumented and uninsured, are more likely than their White counterparts to say they do not have a usual source of care other than the emergency room. Nearly one in four (24%) Hispanic adults overall report no usual source of care other than an emergency room, higher than the share of White adults (12%) and similar to the share of Black adults (28%) (Figure 5). Among Hispanic adults, roughly three in ten potentially undocumented (32%) and lawful permanent resident (29%) adults say they have no usual source of care other than the emergency room, compared to about one in five (19%) U.S.-born adults. Similarly, among nonelderly Hispanic adults, those who are uninsured are more likely than those with insurance to say they do not have a usual source of care other than the emergency room (37% vs. 20%).

Hispanic Adults Are More Likely Than White Adults To Say They Use A Neighborhood Clinic Or Have No Usual Source Of Health Care

Hispanic adults are also more likely than White adults to say a neighborhood clinic or health center is their usual source of care (33% vs. 16%). The shares relying on a clinic or health center as their usual source of care are even higher among lawful permanent resident (42%) and potentially undocumented (40%) Hispanic adults. In contrast, Hispanic adults are less likely than White adults to say their usual source of care is a private doctor’s office (34% vs. 64%). The share saying a clinic is their usual source of care is similar for both uninsured (36%) and insured (33%) nonelderly Hispanic adults, but those who are uninsured are less likely to say they use a private doctor’s office as their usual source of care than their insured counterparts (22% vs. 38%).

Access to and Affordability of Care

About one in five (21%) Hispanic adults say it is somewhat or very difficult to get to a location for health care versus 12% of White adults (Figure 6). The remaining nearly eight in ten Hispanic adults (78%) say it is very or somewhat easy to find health care at a location that is easy to get to, compared to 86% of White adults. Less than half of Hispanic adults say it is very easy (46%) compared to 62% of White adults. Among Hispanic adults, those who are foreign-born are less likely to say it is very easy to get to a location for health care, with 39% of lawful permanent residents and 35% of potentially undocumented adults saying it is very easy compared to 53% of those who are U.S.-born. Similarly, among nonelderly Hispanic adults, those who are uninsured are less likely to say it is very easy (34%) compared to those with health insurance (50%). Nearly three in ten uninsured Hispanic adults (28%) say it is very or somewhat difficult to find care at a location that is easy to get to.

Larger Share Of Hispanic Adults Compared To White Adults Say It Is Difficult To Find Care At An Accessible Location

Overall, the share of Hispanic adults who say it is very or somewhat difficult to find health care they can afford is similar to the share of White adults (37% vs. 32%) (Figure 7). However, Hispanic adults are less likely than White adults to say it is very easy to find affordable care (29% vs. 42%). Further, among nonelderly Hispanic adults, those who are uninsured are twice as likely as those with insurance to say it is very difficult to find health care they can afford (24% vs. 12%). There are no major differences in the reported ease of finding affordable care by immigration status. The reliance on community health centers as a usual source of care by a high share of Hispanic adults may mitigate potential challenges finding affordable care among Hispanic adults even though they are more likely to be uninsured and have lower incomes than White adults, since health centers provide free or low-cost care regardless of insurance status. Other data also show that Hispanic adults are less likely to utilize care than their White counterparts.2 

Three In Ten Hispanic Adults Say It Is Very Easy To Find Health Care They Can Afford; Four In Ten White Adults Say The Same

Provider Communications and Linguistic Access to Care

Communication plays a key role in the delivery of health care and affects patient–provider relationships and the health care people receive. Studies have found that language barriers between providers and patients may result in excessive ordering of medical tests, lack of understanding of medication side effects and provider instructions, decreased use of primary care, increased use of the emergency department, and inadequate follow-up.

Some Hispanic adults, particularly those who are foreign born or uninsured, say it is difficult to find a doctor who explains things in a way that is easy to understand (Figure 8). Overall, three-quarters (74%) of Hispanic adults say it is very or somewhat easy to find a doctor who explains things in a way that is easy to understand, but nearly one-quarter (24%) say it is very or somewhat difficult, higher than the share of White adults (16%) and similar to the share of Black adults (23%). Foreign-born Hispanic adults are more likely than those born in the U.S. to say it is difficult to find a doctor who explains things in a way that is easy to understand, with 34% of potentially undocumented adults and 31% of lawful permanent resident adults saying it is somewhat or very difficult compared to 16% of those who are U.S.-born. Having a usual source of care also makes a difference in the ability to find a doctor who explains things in a way that is easy to understand, as Hispanic adults without a usual source of care are more likely to report it is somewhat or very difficult than those with one (30% vs. 21%). There are no significant differences in the share of nonelderly Hispanic adults who say it is difficult by insurance status, but those who are uninsured are less likely to say it is very or somewhat easy compared to those who are insured (65% vs 77%). Linguistic access to care is also a challenge for some Spanish-speaking adults. Among Hispanic adults who completed the survey in Spanish, one-third (33%) say it is very or somewhat difficult to find a doctor who speaks their preferred language or provides an interpreter when needed.

Foreign-Born Hispanic Adults, Those Without Insurance, Spanish Speakers, Are More Likely To Say It Is Difficult To Find A Doctor Who Explains Things In A Way That Is Easy To Understand

Experiences with Providers

Most Hispanic adults (83%) say it is very or somewhat easy to find a doctor who treats them with dignity and respect, similar to the share of White adults (84%) who say so (Figure 9). However, about one in four (24%) potentially undocumented Hispanic adults say it is somewhat or very difficult, compared to 14% of U.S. born Hispanic adults and 11% of lawful permanent residents. Among nonelderly Hispanic adults, there are no significant differences in reported ease of finding a doctor who treats them with dignity and respect by insurance status. However, among Hispanic adults overall, those without a usual source of care are more likely to say it is very/somewhat difficult compared to those with a usual source of care (20% vs. 12%).

Majorities Across Racial And Ethnic Groups Say It Is Easy To Find A Doctor Who Treats Them With Dignity And Respect; Fewer Uninsured And Potentially Undocumented Hispanic Adults Say It Is Very Easy

Just over half (52%) of Hispanic adults say it is easy to find a doctor with shared background and experiences to them versus over two-thirds (67%) of White adults (Figure 10). The share who say it is very or somewhat easy to find a doctor with shared background and experiences falls to 42% among potentially undocumented Hispanic adults compared to 56% of those who are U.S. born. Similar differences are observed among Hispanic adults based on whether they have a usual source of care, with 42% of those without a usual source of care saying it is very or somewhat easy compared to 56% of those with a usual source of care. Ease of finding a doctor with the same background and experiences does not vary by insurance status among nonelderly Hispanic adults.

Half Of Hispanic Adults Say It Is Easy To Find A Doctor Who Shares The Same Background And Experiences As Them Compared To Two-Thirds Of White Adults

Implications

Overall, these findings show that, consistent with research from prior to the pandemic, Hispanic adults are more likely to be uninsured than their White counterparts. They also are less likely to have a usual source of care other than an emergency room and to rely on community health centers as their source of care. Further, they are more likely than their White counterparts to say it is difficult to get to a location for health care. The findings further show that these access challenges generally are amplified among Hispanic adults who are foreign-born and uninsured. Beyond increased barriers to accessing care, the findings also highlight some challenges communicating with providers among Hispanic adults, particularly among those who are foreign-born and those without a usual source of care. These challenges include increased difficulty finding a doctor who explains things in a way that is easy to understand, finding a doctor with shared background and experiences, and linguistic access challenges for Spanish-speaking adults.

Despite having a higher uninsured rate and being less likely to have a usual source of care, Hispanic adults are not more likely than White adults say it is difficult to find affordable care. This finding may, in part, reflect the primary role community health centers play as a source of care among Hispanic adults. Community health centers provide comprehensive primary care as well as supportive services such as health education, translation, and transportation to patients who are disproportionately low-income, people of color, uninsured, or publicly insured. They provide these services regardless of patients’ ability to pay or immigration status and charge for services on a sliding fee scale. As such, health centers facilitate access to affordable, culturally and linguistically competent care and can help mitigate challenges to accessing care. This finding may also reflect that Hispanic adults are less likely than their White counterparts to utilize care. For example, other federal survey data show that a quarter of Hispanic adults have not seen a doctor in the past year, compared to less than one in five White adults.3 

The overall findings on Hispanic adults’ reported experiences and perceptions of care may reflect certain cultural norms, including an emphasis on politeness and conflict avoidance, and variations in expectations and experiences with the U.S. health care system. For example, research suggests that Hispanic people may give higher ratings to physicians and health plans despite worse health care experiences due to a cultural disposition to be deferential to those who are presumed to be of higher status. Moreover, immigrants may have lower expectations of the healthcare system based on prior experiences with health care in their countries of origin and less experience interacting with the U.S. health care system. Similarly, uninsured individuals’ reported experiences and perceptions of health care and health care system may reflect less interaction with the health care system.

Together these findings highlight the importance of addressing disparities in coverage, access to care, as well as in patient-provider communications for improving health and well-being of Hispanic adults. Further, they highlight the variation of experiences and needs within the Hispanic population which can help inform these efforts going forward. Addressing disparities in health and health care among the Hispanic population is of increasing importance given their growing share of the nation’s population and that they have been disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Endnotes

  1. The survey used questions to determine the likely immigration status of respondents by asking those who were born outside the U.S. whether they were a permanent resident (i.e. had a green card) when they came to the U.S. or if their status had been changed to permanent resident since arriving. In the current survey, 18 percent of Hispanic adults said they have not been granted permanent resident status, indicating that they are likely to be undocumented immigrants, although this group may also include a small number of temporary lawful residents. ↩︎
  2. KFF analysis of 2019 National Health Interview Survey Data ↩︎
  3. Ibid. ↩︎

How Might the FDA’s Approval of a New Alzheimer’s Drug Impact Medicaid?

Authors: Rachel Dolan and Elizabeth Williams
Published: Jul 13, 2021

The recent approval of Aduhelm (aducanumab), which treats Alzheimer’s disease and carries an expected annual price tag of $56,000, has brought increased attention to high-cost drugs approved through the FDA’s accelerated approval pathway. While Medicare and its beneficiaries likely will be most impacted by the costs of the drug, as Alzheimer’s disease is most prevalent among older adults, the drug approval also has implications for Medicaid spending. Medicaid covers more than 80 million people, including many older adults who have not yet reached the age of Medicare eligibility. Medicaid will see increased costs through direct payment of Aduhelm for individuals who receive their drug coverage through Medicaid, as well as through potentially higher Medicare premium payments and cost-sharing for dual eligible beneficiaries (people eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid). Recent policy proposals targeted to accelerated approval drugs, as well as states actions to address coverage issues for very high-cost drugs in Medicaid, may mitigate the cost impact for Aduhelm, but challenges remain in addressing the impact of very high-cost drugs coming to market.

Despite rebates, Medicaid could face substantial costs for covering Aduhelm for enrollees who receive their prescription drug coverage through Medicaid. Because of the structure of the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program, Medicaid must cover nearly all FDA-approved prescription drugs, including those approved through the accelerated approval pathway, though the program receives substantial rebates on most drugs. Medicaid rebates vary for brand-name and generic drugs and also account for price increases over time. Applying the 23.1% base rebate for brand drugs to Aduhelm, the yearly net price would be reduced to approximately $43,000. In Medicaid, states and the federal government share in both drug spending as well as drug rebates received. Using the average of federal and state shares of spending and rebates, state net spending per year per enrollee for Aduhelm would be approximately $13,800, and federal net spending would be about $29,200.1  CBO analysis recently found that high-cost specialty drugs have an average base rebate (excluding inflation rebates) of 29%, so this calculation could underestimate the reduction in cost from rebates. In addition, rebates may increase if the drug’s price rises faster than inflation (Biogen has stated it will not raise the price for four years) or if other payers receive a discount higher than the minimum rebate, triggering the Medicaid “best price” rule.

Even though Medicaid enrollees account for a small share of people with Alzheimer’s disease, high per enrollee costs could lead Aduhelm to have a large aggregate impact on Medicaid drug spending. Nationally, 6 million people are estimated to have Alzheimer’s disease, though most receive their drug coverage through Medicare. Based on analysis of Medicaid drug utilization data, we estimate that approximately 67,000 Medicaid beneficiaries used current drugs for Alzheimer’s.2  If 25% of these beneficiaries switched to Aduhelm, the total net cost (post-rebate) would be approximately $720 million per year, states’ share of spending would be $230 million and the federal share would be $490 million. If 75% of these beneficiaries switched to Aduhelm, the total net cost would be more than $2 billion per year, which is 7% of current Medicaid net drug spending. States’ share of spending would be $695 million and the federal share would be $1.47 billion. These amounts could overestimate spending if fewer Medicaid beneficiaries switch drugs but could also underestimate spending because they do not account for beneficiaries with Alzheimer’s currently not using any drugs. Biogen has also announced a narrower prescribing policy for Aduhelm, which creates further uncertainty in how many beneficiaries would use the drug. Aduhelm is not a curative therapy, and costs could continue for multiple years for the program.

Policy proposals and state actions could further lower the cost of Aduhelm for Medicaid. A recent proposal recommended by MACPAC would increase the minimum rebate amount on accelerated approval drugs and would provide a further inflationary rebate if confirmatory trials are not completed in a specified amount of time. While the MACPAC proposal does not include specific rebate amounts, CBO scored the proposal assuming a 10 percentage point increase in the minimum rebate and a 20 percent increase in inflationary rebates.  Under this proposal, assuming the base rebate increases from 23.1% to 33.1%, total net spending would be $37,000 per enrollee per year based on the assumptions used above, of which approximately $12,000 would be state costs and $25,000 federal. States also may use utilization controls such as establishing clinical criteria for reimbursement and requiring prior authorization as they have for other high-cost drugs and those approved through the accelerated approval pathway, which would not lower the cost per person but would decrease the number of people receiving the drug.

Medicaid also will share in the costs of providing coverage and care to dual eligible enrollees, or people who are receive both Medicare and Medicaid. Medicaid provides some level of wrap-around assistance to approximately 12 million dual eligible Medicare enrollees, covering Medicare premiums and, in most cases, cost-sharing (Medicaid also provides full wraparound benefits to many dually eligible people). Aduhelm is covered under Medicare Part B as a physician-administered drug, making it subject to the 20% Medicare Part B cost-sharing that Medicaid covers for most dual eligible individuals. However, as allowed under federal rules, states may (and often do) pay the “lesser of” the Medicare cost-sharing amount or the difference between the Medicare payment and the Medicaid payment rate for the service, meaning states may not incur the entire 20% (or anything at all); if states do pay cost-sharing, they can also collect rebates for payments for the drugs, lowering their net cost.3 ,4  In addition, premiums for Medicare Part B may increase as a result of increased costs due to the drug, which would increase Medicaid payments on behalf of enrollees for whom Medicaid pays Medicare premiums. In 2019, the cost of Part B premiums to Medicaid was $19.7 billion in federal and state Medicaid spending, so even a small percentage increase could result in significant additional spending for Medicaid.5 

Other high-cost specialty drugs have had an impact on the Medicaid program, but Aduhelm stands out in that it is a high-cost maintenance drug without a verified clinical benefit that could potentially be widely-prescribed. Medicaid has covered other very costly outpatient drugs, including other maintenance drugs and curative therapies. Some drugs, such as antiretrovirals, drugs used to prevent and treat HIV, are both frequently prescribed in Medicaid and expensive, with list prices ranging between $20,000-$30,000 per year. Medicaid is the largest source of coverage for people with HIV and nearly 300,000 Medicaid enrollees are estimated to have HIV.  Other drugs carry one-time high cost, such as hepatitis C drugs, including Harvoni and Sovaldi, that entered the market at a list price of $84,000 for a single course of treatment. Although the hepatitis C population (around 2.5 million people in the U.S.) is smaller than the number of individuals with Alzheimer’s, a disproportionate share are enrolled in Medicaid, and despite state actions to limit costs, these drugs contributed to a 25% increase in Medicaid drug spending 2013-2014. Other accelerated approval drugs have carried very high sticker prices but have been targeted to relatively small populations: for example, a previous drug approved through the accelerated approval pathway in 2016, Exondys 51, for Duchenne muscular dystrophy also raised concerns with a cost of $300,000 per year or more. While the population impacted by the disease is extremely small, drug costs may be significant for Medicaid. The confirmatory trials were originally scheduled to be completed by 2020; however, they will not be completed until 2026, requiring Medicaid to cover the drug at least through that time.6 

Drug pricing remains on the policy agenda, and while the discussion remains focused on Medicare, expensive drugs, and proposed policies to address them, will also impact Medicaid. Other drugs may now seek approval through this pathway following on the success of Aduhelm’s approval which may have additional budgetary implications for Medicaid. States may also continue to seek alternatives to paying for expensive drugs approved through this pathway such as closed formularies, value-based agreements or restricting access through clinical criteria.

  1. Based on KFF analysis of CMS 64 data and MACSTATs, we estimate the federal government pays about 68% of drug costs and receives approximately 68.5% of rebates. MACPAC, Medicaid Drug Spending Trends, December 2020. https://www.macpac.gov/publication/medicaid-gross-spending-and-rebates-for-drugs-by-delivery-system/ ↩︎
  2. There were a total of 605,218 prescriptions for Alzheimer’s drugs in 2019. The median package is a 55 days supply. Analysis of utilization of the same Alzheimer’s drugs using Medicare data shows that 69.4% people used one drug, 26.6% used two, and 4.0% used three prescriptions, resulting in 67,754 people estimated to be using those prescriptions in Medicaid. ↩︎
  3. States can pay the “lesser of” the Medicare cost-sharing amount or the difference between the Medicare payment and the Medicaid rate for the service -most states pay using this lesser of formula. Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission. Effects of Medicaid coverage of Medicare cost sharing on access to care. In Report to Congress on Medicaid and CHIP: March 2015. Washington, DC: MACPAC. https://www.macpac.gov/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Effects-of-Medicaid-Coverage-of-Medicare-Cost-Sharing-on-Access-to-Care.pdf ↩︎
  4. States can set payment rates for physician-administered drugs but to receive rebates the drug must be billed separately. Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission. Physician-administered drugs. https://www.macpac.gov/physician-administered-drugs/ ↩︎
  5. National Health Expenditure Accounts Table 05-5 reports $11.8 billion in federal spending and $7.9 billion in state spending in 2019. ↩︎
  6. MACPAC, Report to Congress on Medicaid and CHIP, June 2021. https://www.macpac.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/June-2021-Report-to-Congress-on-Medicaid-and-CHIP.pdf ↩︎
News Release

Vaccine Monitor: Some Who Were Hesitant to Get a Vaccine in January Say They Changed Their Mind Because of Family, Friends and Their Personal Doctors

Published: Jul 13, 2021

A new KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor report finds that people who were initially hesitant to get a vaccine in January but ultimately did so often say that family, friends and their personal doctors helped change their minds.

The report features a second round of interviews with a nationally representative sample of adults six months after they first shared their vaccine intentions in January, early in the nation’s vaccine distribution effort. The new survey assesses whether or not they got a COVID-19 vaccine, the reasons behind their choice, and how they feel about their decision.

Half initially told us that they planned on getting vaccinated as soon as possible or had already received at least one dose. Now two-thirds say have been vaccinated, including the vast majority (92%) of those who had planned to get vaccinated “as soon as possible” in January, along with slightly more than half (54%) of those who wanted to “wait and see.” At the same time, three quarters (76%) of those who previously said they would get vaccinated “only if required” or would “definitely not” get a COVID-19 vaccine remain unvaccinated.

Importantly, one in five (21%) of all adults are now vaccinated after expressing some level of hesitation in January, saying then that they planned on waiting to get vaccinated, would only get it if required, or would definitely not get vaccinated. Many in this group cite friends, family members, and their personal doctors as influencing their decision to get a vaccine. This includes seeing friends and family members get vaccinated without serious side effects (25%), pressure from friends and family (8%), being able to safely visit family members (3%), and conversations with their personal doctors (11%). Another one in ten (9%) say that easing of restrictions for vaccinated people was a factor.


In their own words: What did you learn or hear that persuaded you to get vaccinated?

“Not many side effects and others have been vaccinated” – 21 year old, male, white, independent, Georgia (“wait and see” in January)

“That it was clearly safe. No one was dying.” – 32 year old, male, white, Republican, South Carolina (“wait and see” in January)

“Five generations of our family are getting together in one week from now” – 68 year old, male, white, Democrat, California (“wait and see” in January)

“My Ob/Gyn advised it was safe to take while pregnant and/or trying to conceive and there are studies showing women who get pregnant that caught COVID had more hematological problems during and after birth” – 32 year old, female, white, independent, Alabama (“wait and see” in January)

In fact, some vaccinated adults cite protecting or being able to see their friends and family members as the main reason why they decided to get vaccinated. And two-thirds (65%) say they have personally tried to persuade friends and family members to get a shot.

One-third of all adults remain unvaccinated, including 16% of adults who had previously said they planned on getting vaccinated “as soon as possible” or wanted to “wait and see” see before getting a vaccine. When asked why they changed their minds, many cite the side effects of the vaccine as a key reason.


In their own words: What changed your mind?

“What’s changed my mind is people telling me how sick they got after they received the vaccination. I really don’t want to be sick from a vaccination so I kind of lost interest” – 54 year old, male, white, Republican, California (“ASAP” in January)

“I have allergies considering the possible risks. The risks in my opinion are not a chance I’m willing to take.” – 18 year old, male, Hispanic, Democrat, Florida (“ASAP” in January)

“My husband got the vaccine and he experienced a lot of side effects. I usually end of having some [or] all the listed side effects” – 42 year old, female, Hispanic, independent, California (“wait and see” in January)

Available through the Monitor’s online dashboard, the new report also quotes the open-ended responses given by many of those surveyed reflecting the diversity of their views and experiences related to their views and decision around vaccination.

The KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor is an ongoing research project tracking the public’s attitudes and experiences with COVID-19 vaccinations. Using a combination of surveys and qualitative research, this project tracks the dynamic nature of public opinion as vaccine development and distribution unfold, including vaccine confidence and hesitancy, trusted messengers and messages, as well as the public’s experiences with vaccination.

Poll Finding

KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: In Their Own Words, Six Months Later

Published: Jul 13, 2021

Findings

The KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor is an ongoing research project tracking the public’s attitudes and experiences with COVID-19 vaccinations. Using a combination of surveys and qualitative research, this project tracks the dynamic nature of public opinion as vaccine development and distribution unfold, including vaccine confidence and hesitancy, trusted messengers and messages, as well as the public’s experiences with vaccination.

Key Findings

At the beginning of 2021 as vaccine distribution began in the U.S., KFF conducted interviews with a nationally representative sample of adults using open-ended questions to better understand public concerns around receiving a COVID-19 vaccine. Six months later, we recontacted these individuals to find out whether they chose to receive a COVID-19 vaccine, their reasoning behind their decisions, and how they are feeling about their choice.

  • The vast majority (92%) of those who planned to get vaccinated “as soon as possible” in early 2021 have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, as have slightly more than half (54%) of individuals who had previously said they wanted to “wait and see” before getting vaccinated. On the other hand, a majority (76%) of people who had previously said they would “only get vaccinated if required” or said they would “definitely not” get a COVID-19 vaccine remain unvaccinated.
  • One-fifth of adults (21%) now report being vaccinated after saying in January they planned on waiting to get vaccinated, would only get it if required, or would definitely not get vaccinated. Many of these individuals noted the role of their friends and family members as well as their personal doctors in persuading them to get a vaccine. Seeing their friends and family members get vaccinated without serious side effects, talking to family members about being able to safely visit, and conversations with their personal doctors about their own risks were all persuasive factors for these individuals. A small but meaningful share also say the easing of restrictions for vaccinated people was a factor in their decision to get a vaccine.
  • When asked to name the feeling that best describes how they feel now that they have been vaccinated, nearly a quarter of vaccinated adults offer responses around feeling safe (24%) and relieved (22%). Other positive feelings reported were freedom, confidence, and more certainty that if they did get COVID-19 it would be less serious or they were less likely to die from it. And while most respondents react with some positive emotion, one in ten said they felt the same or neutral. This feeling was more common among those who initially said they would “wait and see” in January or who said they would only get vaccinated if required or would not get vaccinated.
  • Conversations with family members and friends have played a major role in persuading people to get vaccinated. Two-thirds of vaccinated adults say they have tried to persuade their friends and family members to get a COVID-19 vaccine, and 17% of adults who are now vaccinated after saying in January they planned on waiting to get vaccinated, would only get it if required, or would definitely not get vaccinated, say they were persuaded to do so by a family member and 5% say they were persuaded by a friend. In addition to this, others cite protecting friends and family members as the main reason for getting vaccinated and others offer being able to see their friends and family members as well as family pressure or encouragement as the main reasons why they chose to receive a vaccine.
  • About one-fourth of those who previously said they planned on getting vaccinated “as soon as possible” or were wanting to “wait and see” before getting a vaccine, remain unvaccinated six months later. Some of these individuals either have an appointment to get a vaccine or still plan on getting it as soon as they are able, but one in ten (6% of total) now say they either will “only get vaccinated if required” or say they will “definitely not” get a vaccine. When asked what changed their mind, many offer concerns about the side effects of the vaccine as the reasons why they now do not plan on getting vaccinated.
  • Being concerned about side effects is the top reason offered by unvaccinated people for why they haven’t gotten a COVID-19 vaccine. When asked what would motivate them to get vaccinated against COVID-19, most in the “wait and see” group say they just want more time to see how the vaccine affects others who have already gotten it.

Vaccine Behavior Largely Matches Previous Intentions

Nine in ten (92%) of those who said back in January 2021 they would get vaccinated as soon as they were able now report, six months later, that they have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. In addition, slightly more than half (54%) of those who were in the “wait and see” group back in January, say they have received a COVID-19 vaccine while 46% of adults in this group report not being vaccinated against COVID-19. A smaller share, one-fourth (24%) of those who said they would “only get vaccinated if required” or they would “definitely not” get vaccinated now report receiving at least one dose, while the majority (76%) of adults in this group say they remain unvaccinated.

Interactive DataWrapper Embed

Three-fourths (72%) of the most vaccine enthusiastic group (those who said they would get vaccinated as soon as they could back in January) say they received a COVID-19 vaccine more than two months ago, compared to a majority of vaccinated adults from the “wait and see” group who say they received their vaccine either less than one month ago (10%) or between one and two months ago (46%).

Overall nearly half of adults either were already vaccinated in January (8%) or had said they planned to get vaccinated as soon as possible and have now received at least one dose (39%). An additional one in five adults (21%) are now vaccinated after saying in January they planned on waiting to get vaccinated, would only get it if required, or would definitely not get vaccinated. One-third of adults remain unvaccinated after either planning to get it as soon as possible or were going to wait and see back in January (17%) or had said they were only going to get vaccinated if required or were definitely not getting a COVID-19 vaccine (16%).

Most Vaccine Behaviors Match What People Planned To Do Six Months Ago; One In Five Were Either Vaccine Hesitant Or Resistant And Have Gotten Vaccinated

What Made Some People Decide to Get vaccinated?

When the 21% of adults who are now vaccinated after saying in January they planned on waiting to get vaccinated, would only get it if required, or would definitely not get vaccinated are asked in their own words what they learned or heard that persuaded them to get vaccinated, many discussed the role of their friends and family members as well as their personal doctors in their decision.

A common response mentioned by one-fourth of these individuals was that seeing others, especially friends and family, get vaccinated without side effects made them decide to get a vaccine.

In their own words: What did you learn or hear that persuaded you to get vaccinated?

“Almost all of my friends were vaccinated with no side effects.” – 64 year old, female, black, Democrat, Tennessee (“wait and see” in January)

“Family members and friends who got vaccinated had no serious side effects. Lots of regulations got lifted for vaccinated people.” – 43 year old, female, Asian, independent, Massachusetts (“wait and see” in January)

“Not many side effects and others have been vaccinated” – 21 year old, male, white, independent, Georgia (“wait and see” in January)

“That it was clearly safe. No one was dying” – 32 year old, male, white, Republican, South Carolina (“wait and see” in January)

“I feel since our President got vaccinated & all is well with him, it was also safe for me.” – 75 year old, female, white, Democrat, Virginia (“wait and see” in January)

“I became convinced that some of the rumored side effects were not true” – 69 year old, male, white, independent, Colorado (“only if required” in January)

Others said they chose to get vaccinated either due to pressure from friends and family (8%), or they wanted to be able to safely visit with their friends and family members (3%).

In their own words: What did you learn or hear that persuaded you to get vaccinated?

“I went to visit my family members in another state and everyone there had been vaccinated with no problems so that encouraged me to go ahead and get vaccinated also I would the better protected and not a threat to them not being having it” – 63 year old, male, black, independent, Texas (“wait and see” in January)

“Friends and family talked me into it, as did my place of employment” – 28 year old, male, white, independent, Virginia (“definitely not” in January)

“My husband bugged me to get it and I gave in” – 42 year old, female, white, Republican, Indiana (“definitely not” in January)

“Five generations of our family are getting together in one week from now.” – 68 year old, male, white, Democrat, California (“wait and see” in January)

“My family persuaded me because of my sick kids” – 28 year old, female, Hispanic, Democrat, Texas (“wait and see” in January)

Another common response was that conversations with their doctors or health providers encouraged them to get vaccinated (11%).

In their own words: What did you learn or hear that persuaded you to get vaccinated?

“My doctor recommended it” – 70 year old, female, white, Democrat, Arizona (“definitely not” in January)

“My asthma doctor recommended I get it” – 64 year old, female, white, Republican, Texas (“wait and see” in January)

“My Ob/Gyn advised it was safe to take while pregnant and/or trying to conceive and there are studies showing women who get pregnant that caught COVID had more hematological problems during and after birth” – 32 year old, female, white, independent, Alabama (“wait and see” in January)

“My daughter is a doctor and she got vaccinated which was reassuring that it was okay to get vaccinated.” – 64 year old, female, Asian, Democrat, Texas (“wait and see” in January)

“I was nervous about breastfeeding while getting vaccinated, but then found out from doctors it's actually good to get vaccinated while breastfeeding because the babies will get antibodies also” – 28 year old, female, white, independent, Iowa (“wait and see” in January)

Half (52%) of those who were initially vaccine hesitant or resistant (saying in January they planned on waiting to get vaccinated, would only get it if required, or would definitely not get vaccinated) and have now received a COVID-19 vaccine say they heard or read something that persuaded them and more than one-third (36%) say they spoke with someone who persuaded them to get vaccinated.

Half Of Those Who Were More Vaccine Hesitant Say They Learned Or Heard Something Persuasive, More Than One-Third Say They Spoke With Someone Who Persuaded Them To Get A COVID-19 Vaccine

Most commonly, people reported talking to and being persuaded by a family member (17% of all previously vaccine hesitant or resistant individuals) or their own doctor or health care provider (10%), followed by a close friend (5%) or a co-worker or classmate (2%).

Many of those who said they were persuaded after talking to their own doctor mentioned their doctor encouraging them due to their own or a family member’s medical condition.

In their own words: What did they say that persuaded you to get vaccinated?

“Discussed my spouse’s immune system.” – 58 year old, male, white, Republican, Washington (“only if required” in January)

“I could not get treated for the lymphoma on my lower left leg unless I was vaccinated” – 78 year old, female, white, Republican, Missouri (“wait and see” in January)

“COVID causes lung damage not good with COPD” – 57 year old, male, white, independent, Pennsylvania (“wait and see” in January)

“I was told by my doctor that she strongly recommend I get the vaccine because I have diabetes.” – 47 year old, female, white, Republican, Florida (“wait and see” in January)

A small but meaningful share said the easing of restrictions for vaccinated people made them decide to get a vaccine.

In their own words: What did you learn or hear that persuaded you to get vaccinated?

 “Hearing that the travel quarantine restrictions would be lifted for those people that are vaccinated was a major reason for my change of thought. Also the possibility that business and other resources may be limited to non-vaccinated individuals was also a major factor.” – 43 year old, male, black, Democrat, Virginia (“wait and see” in January)

“To see events or visit some restaurants, it was easier to be vaccinated.” – 39 year old, male, white, independent, New Jersey (“only if required” in January)

“Bahamas trip required a COVID shot” – 43 year old, male, Hispanic, independent, Pennsylvania (“wait and see” in January)

Two-thirds (65%) of vaccinated adults, including many of those who were previously vaccine hesitant, say they have tried to persuade close friends or family members to get vaccinated.

What Made Some People Decide to Not Get vaccinated?

One-third of adults remain unvaccinated, including a quarter of adults who previously had said they planned on getting vaccinated “as soon as possible” or wanted to “wait and see” before getting a vaccine and remain unvaccinated six months later. Some of these individuals (3%) either have an appointment to get a vaccine or still plan on getting it as soon as they are able, but one in ten (6% of total) now say they either will only get vaccinated if required or say they will “definitely not” get a vaccine.

One In Ten Of Those Who Previously Said They Would Get Vaccinated &quot;ASAP&quot; Or Were Going To &quot;Wait And See&quot; Now Say They Will Either &quot;Definitely Not&quot; Get Vaccinated Or Will Only Get It If Required

When asked what changed their mind, many of these individuals offer concerns about the side effects of the vaccine as the reason why they now do not plan on getting vaccinated.

In their own words: What changed your mind?

“What's changed my mind is people telling me how sick they got after they received the vaccination I really don't want to be sick from a vaccination so I kind of lost interest” – 54 year old, male, white, Republican, California (“ASAP” in January)

“There’s still not enough data proving that the vaccine is effectively and definitely not enough data showing the side effects.” – 54 year old, female, black, Democrat, Arkansas (“wait and see” in January)

“I have allergies considering the possible risks. The risks in my opinion are not a chance I'm willing to take.” – 18 year old, male, Hispanic, Democrat, Florida (“ASAP” in January)

“My husband got the vaccine and he experienced a lot of side effects I usually end of having some all the listed side effects” – 42 year old, female, Hispanic, independent, California (“wait and see” in January)

“We are now starting to see adverse reactions, deaths and other problems with young people also. We do not know the long term effects on the body, reproduction etc.  it could take years to see that information come out” – 60 year old, male, white, Republican, Delaware (“wait and see” in January)

For some, others’ views of the pandemic influenced their decisions to not get vaccinated, with several people offering responses about the pandemic being exaggerated and no longer feeling that a vaccine was necessary.

In their own words: What changed your mind?

“COVID was not the pandemic it was made out to be and I am not getting vaccinated for it” – 26 year old, female, white, Republican, Iowa (“ASAP” in January)

“This event seems more and more just like the flu. Everyone is exposed and has the same chance of getting it. I never got a flu vaccine either. This whole mask thing is a joke. Most people wear them beneath their nose or even chin. This event is over for me except as mandated to me by those above me who control me in some way such as employer.” – 58 year old, male, black, independent, Alabama (“wait and see” in January)

“My daughter has had covid and I never tested positive or showed symptoms, and she never had symptoms.  My thought is I am either immune or I have antibodies.  My other thought is that we didn't have it and they made the numbers grow by false positive tests.” – 28 year old, female, white, Republican, Tennessee (“wait and see” in January)

The Experiences Of Vaccinated Adults

When adults who have received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine were asked how they feel now they have been vaccinated, the most common responses were about feeling safe and relieved. One-fourth (24%) of vaccinated adults say they felt “safe” or some variation after being vaccinated, with a similar share (22%) offering responses that they felt relieved. Other positive feelings reported were those of freedom, confidence, and more certainty that if they did get COVID-19, it would be less serious, or they were less likely to die from it.

In their own words: What feeling best describes how you feel now that you have been vaccinated?

“Relief....I am a cancer guy and my immune system is compromised, so getting the vaccine is great news for me.” – 81 year old, male, white, independent, Washington (“ASAP” in January)

“I feel relieved and hopeful.” – 64 year old, female, black, Democrat, Tennessee (“wait and see” in January)

“There is no difference in my body or my mind, I just feel safer and more confident to go out to public places although I still wear a mask, where is it necessary.” – 33 year old, female, Hispanic, independent, Arkansas, (“wait and see” in January)

While most respondents reacted with some positive emotion, another one in ten said they felt the same or neutral. Others offered responses about not experiencing any or only mild side effects as a result of the vaccinations, while some were excited about the “return to normal.” A much smaller share expressed a negative emotion (about 1% of vaccinated adults).

Vaccinated Adults Feel Safer, Relieved, And Other Positive Emotions After Vaccination; One In Ten Feel No Different

Those who initially said they would “wait and see” in January were less likely than those most enthusiastic about the vaccine (“as soon as possible” in January) to say they felt relief (14% vs. 29%), and more likely to express feeling the same or neutral about getting vaccinated (19% vs. 5%).

In their own words: What feeling best describes how you feel now that you have been vaccinated?

 “In order to protect my family and myself, I chose to get vaccinated.” – 57 year old, female, black, Democrat, Kentucky (“wait and see” in January)

“Required for work.” – 27 year old, female, black, independent, South Carolina (“only if required” in January)

“Meh!!!” – 69 year old, male, white, independent, Illinois (“wait and see” in January)

More than a quarter of vaccinated adults say the main reason they chose to get vaccinated was to protect themselves or reduce their own risk (27%), while another 16% mentioned they were afraid of getting COVID-19 and wanted to avoid getting sick. One in ten respondents cited being at risk of getting sick due to their age or other health condition as their reason for getting vaccinated. Others wanted to protect their family members (7%) or protect others around them and help with herd immunity (6%).

In their own words: What is the main reason you chose to get vaccinated?

“To stop being afraid of getting it, afraid of the huge medical bills, to go back to normal, to protect others.” – 31 year old, female, white, Democrat, Nevada (“wait and see” in January)

“Protect my family from this deadly virus.” – 39 year old, male, black, Democrat, Virginia (“as soon as possible” in January)

“Because I had COVID already so the vaccine will only help me double.” – 20 year old, male, Hispanic, independent, Florida (“definitely not” in January)

Many Who Got Vaccinated Chose To Do So To Protect Themselves And Avoid Getting Sick

Those who previously had said they were going to “wait and see” offer similar reasons for getting vaccinated as the vaccine enthusiastic group but were slightly less likely to say they got vaccinated to protect themselves (21% vs. 33%), and slightly larger shares offer reasons related to not having to wear a mask anymore (5% vs. 0%) and because of encouragement or pressure from family members (6% vs. 1%).

In their own words: What is the main reason you chose to get vaccinated?

 “My holistic Dr. recommended it.” – 61 year old, female, white, Republican, Connecticut (“wait and see” in January)

“I wanted to start living my life and start traveling and stop wearing masks.” – 27 year old, female, black, Democrat, Ohio, (“wait and see” in January)

“To shut the wife up.” – 65 year old, male, white, Republican, Michigan (“wait and see” in January)

Reasons For Getting Vaccinated Vary Slightly By Previous Vaccine Intention

One of the most common responses among the more vaccine resistant group who have received a vaccine were about getting vaccinated in order to travel or being required to due to a job.

In their own words: What is the main reason you chose to get vaccinated?

“I am an educator and we needed to re-open schools.” – 51 year old, female, white, Democrat, Kentucky (“definitely not” in January)

“To be able to travel.” – 35 year old, male, black, Democrat, Virginia (“only if required” in January)

“Limited options without it.” – 51 year old, male, white, independent, New York (“only if required” in January)

Why Some Adults Remain Unvaccinated

When those who remain unvaccinated were asked about their main reason for not getting a COVID-19 vaccine, the most commonly offered reasons are around concerns about side effects (21%), followed by concerns that the vaccine was too new, too unknown, or not tested enough (16%). One in ten (12%) offer they haven’t gotten vaccinated because they don’t think they need the vaccine. Smaller, but still significant shares, say they haven’t gotten vaccinated because they just want to wait and see (7%), they don’t trust the vaccine and don’t normally get vaccines (7%), have a medical condition which prevents them from receiving a COVID-19 vaccine (7%), or think COVID-19 is not that bad or that the vaccine is worse (7%).

Concerns Over Side Effects, Newness Of Vaccine As Well As Perceptions About Not Needing The Vaccine Are Top Reasons Provided For Not Getting A COVID-19 Vaccine

Being concerned about side effects was also the top reason back in January why people said they may not get vaccinated. The latest report finds one-fifth of unvaccinated adults still offer concerns over possible side effects as the main reason why they haven’t gotten a COVID-19 vaccine.

In their own words: What is the main reason you have not gotten a COVID-19 vaccine?

“My husband got the vaccine and all the side effects. I cannot be sick, I am the rock of the family” – 42 year old, female, Hispanic, independent, California (“definitely not”)

“I’m scared of the side effects” – 20 year old, female, black, independent, Texas (“only if required”)

“I’m a little nervous knowing the possibility of side effects. I know it’s probably beneficial to my health, I just wanted to wait a little longer” – 43 year old, male, white, Republican, Arizona (“ASAP”)

“I didn’t want to get sick” – 26 year old, female, black Hispanic, Democrat, Florida (“definitely not”)

Another one of the most commonly offered reason for not getting vaccinated were concerns that the vaccine was too new, too unknown, or not tested enough. This was one of the top reasons offered across vaccine intention groups.

In their own words: What is the main reason you have not gotten a COVID-19 vaccine?

“Because I do not trust the vaccine safety and I’ve also heard and seen about side effects” – 22 year old, female, white, Republican, Arkansas (“definitely not”)

“Because it’s an experimental drug” – 59 year old, female, white, Republican, Texas (“definitely not”)

“I am not sure about it yet. I don't feel it was properly tested and there are so many different stories, good and bad, that I don't know what to believe anymore” – 44 year old, male, Hispanic, independent, California (“only if required”)

“I do not believe there has been adequate testing to show that this is a safe vaccine for everyone and every preexisting condition” – 51 year old, female, white, independent, North Carolina (“definitely not”)

“I feel as if it’s fairly new and not enough research has been done” – 40 year old, female black, Democrat, Pennsylvania (“only if required”)

Some unvaccinated people say they don’t see the benefit of getting vaccinated either because they do not think they are at risk of getting sick from the virus, or that they already had COVID-19.

In their own words: What is the main reason you have not gotten a COVID-19 vaccine?

“As a young and healthy person, I don’t think I need it” – 34 year old, male, black, independent, Mississippi (“only if required”)

“Benefit not worth the risks” – 55 year old, male, white, independent, Minnesota (“definitely not”)

“Didn’t feel the need!” – 26 year old, female, white, independent, Alabama (“only if required”)

“I don’t believe contracting COVID is a death sentence. We blew this entire pandemic out of proportion.” – 46 year old, male, white, Republican, Massachusetts (“definitely not”)

“I had the virus, I have antibodies.” – 50 year old, female, white, Republican, Nebraska (“only if required”)

“I had COVID for 3 weeks recently. I will have antibodies for a while. I also do not believe the vaccine(s) are true vaccines with antibodies. I've checked the CDC lists of ingredients and many are toxic, and they mess with RNA. I believe it's mainly about making money.” – 60 year old, female, white, independent, Montana (“definitely not”)

many unvaccinated Adults Just Want to Wait and See

As millions of adults in the U.S. have received a COVID-19 vaccine and access to vaccines has increased throughout the country, the share of adults who say they either will get vaccinated “as soon as possible” or want to “wait and see” before getting vaccinated has decreased to about one in eight adults. Few adults (9%) say they are now “more motivated” to get vaccinated than they were six months ago while most (65% of all unvaccinated adults and 60% of those in the “wait and see” group from January) say they have the same level of motivation now to get vaccinated as they did six months ago. About a quarter across groups say they are “less motivated” to get vaccinated than they were six months ago.

Interactive DataWrapper Embed

Among those who are still unvaccinated but are not resistant to getting vaccinated (now say they either plan to get it ASAP or are wanting to wait and see), about four in ten say they plan on waiting more than a year before getting a COVID-19 vaccine, while about three in ten (28%) say they plan on getting vaccinated within the next three months and an additional third say they will get vaccinated between 4 months and a year. Many adults in this group (unvaccinated adults who say they either plan to get it ASAP or are wanting to wait and see) offer side effects as the main reason why they have not gotten vaccinated yet.

In their own words: What is the main reason you have not gotten a COVID-19 vaccine?

“A lot of people have negative reactions to the vaccines and some die. I'm not willing to risk my life for a vaccine that you need yearly.” – 64 year old, female, white, independent, Ohio (“wait and see”)

“A little bit scared because of the side effect.” – 69 year old, female, Hispanic, Democrat, Florida (“ASAP”)

“Bad side effects. Will wait a year and then decide.” – 67 year old, male, white, Republican, New York (“wait and see”)

“It’s too soon to tell if it is safe. Not worth the risk” – 19 year old, female, black, independent, Indiana (“wait and see”)

“Not comfortable with unknown long-term possible side effects.” – unknown age, female, black, Delaware (“wait and see”)

“The ‘product’ was rushed into production, it is probably flawed and we have not seen these flaws.” – 57 year old, male, white, Republican, Texas (“wait and see”)

“Unsure about possible side effects, concerns over massive Johnson and Johnson recall.” – 38 year old, female, white, Democrat, Florida (“wait and see”)

When those who say they want to “wait and see” before getting vaccinated are asked what, if anything, would motivate them to get vaccinated against COVID-19, few tangible motivations are mentioned. Most of these individuals say they just want more time to see how the vaccine affects others who have already gotten it. A few individuals explicitly mention wanting full FDA approval, a motivation found in previous KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor reports.

In their own words: What, if anything, would motivate you to get fully vaccinated against COVID-19? (among those who are “wait and see”)

 “Time and proof that it is working and has no lasting negative effects on the body.” – 60 year old, female, white, Republican, Washington

“Only time will motivate me.” – 44 year old, female, Asian, Democrat, North Carolina

“Years of study and an idea about possible long term effects of the vaccine. There is only Emergency Use Authorization for the vaccines. Not full approval for use as they have literally not completed the full testing process.” – 54 year old, male, white, Republican, Kentucky

“Waiting to see if people have any adverse effects” – 44 year old, female, black, Democrat, West Virginia

“Read more reports from people who have taken the vaccine and investigate if they had side effects.” – 81 year old, male, Hispanic, Democrat, Texas

Methodology

This KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: In Their Own Words, Six Months Later was designed and analyzed by public opinion researchers at the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF). The survey was conducted June 15-23, 2021 using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a nationally representative panel of U.S. adults age 18 or older recruited using probability-based sampling techniques. For the Kaiser Family Foundation, SSRS re-invited adult panelists in the U.S. who previously participated in a survey in January 14-18, 2021. The original sampling targeted panel respondents by gender, age, race, education, and region. SSRS regularly monitored data collection to check for demographic composition of the sample and data quality. Cases determined to be poor-quality, as defined by surveys with a length of interview of less than 33% of the mean length of interview and with invalid text responses were removed from the final data. In total, 1,009 panelists were invited to participate in this follow-up survey and 878 respondents completed the full questionnaire online on June 15-23, 2021 with additional follow-ups conducted on July 2,2021. 859 surveys were completed in English and 19 surveys were completed in Spanish. Panelists were compensated for their participation, with incentives distributed by the SSRS Opinion Panel through their standard procedures.

The margin of sampling error including the design effect for the full sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Numbers of respondents and margins of sampling error for key subgroups are shown in the table below. For results based on other subgroups, the margin of sampling error may be higher. Sample sizes and margins of sampling error for other subgroups are available by request. Note that sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error in this or any other public opinion poll. Kaiser Family Foundation public opinion and survey research is a charter member of the Transparency Initiative of the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

GroupN (unweighted)M.O.S.E.
Total878± 4 percentage points
Total who have gotten a COVID-19 vaccine632± 5 percentage points
Total who have not gotten a COVID-19 vaccine246± 8 percentage points
January Vaccine Intentions
As soon as they can395± 6 percentage points
Wait and see242± 8 percentage points
Only if required/ Definitely not getting a vaccine168± 10 percentage points
June Vaccine Intentions
Only if required/ Definitely not getting a vaccine161± 10 percentage points