A Look at Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies During the Unwinding of Continuous Enrollment and Beyond

Authors: Tricia Brooks, Jennifer Tolbert, Allexa Gardner, Bradley Corallo, Sophia Moreno, and Anna Mudumala
Published: Jun 20, 2024

Executive Summary

In early 2023, states began final preparations for the end of the pandemic-related Medicaid continuous enrollment provision following passage of the Consolidated Appropriations Act (CAA) of 2023, which lifted the requirement effective March 31, 2023. During the three-year pause on Medicaid disenrollments, Medicaid and CHIP enrollment grew by 32% from 71.3 million to 94.1 million, resulting in the largest ever number of enrollees in Medicaid, which, along with enhanced subsidies in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplaces, contributed to the lowest ever uninsured rate. The CAA also extended and phased out the enhanced federal Medicaid matching funds that states received during the pandemic through the end of 2023. All states were expected to initiate their first month of renewals no later than April 2023, although some states did not process their first disenrollments until June or July.

The 22nd annual survey of state Medicaid and CHIP programs officials conducted by KFF and the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families in March 2024 presents a snapshot of actions states have taken to improve systems, processes, and communications during the unwinding, as well as key state Medicaid eligibility, enrollment, and renewal policies and procedures in place as of May 2024. The report focuses on policies for children, pregnant individuals, parents, and other non-elderly adults whose eligibility is based on Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) financial eligibility rules (information on policies for populations that qualify for Medicaid on the basis of age or disability—non-MAGI populations—is captured in a separate brief). Overall, 49 states and the District of Columbia responded to the survey, although response rates for specific questions varied (Florida was the only state that did not respond). For purposes of this report, the District of Columbia is counted as a state.

Key Takeaways

  • All states report taking action to improve automated, also known as ex parte, renewal rates during the unwinding and plan to continue these strategies post unwinding. Forty-two states adopted 1902(e)(14)(A) waiver flexibilities to increase ex parte renewal rates for MAGI populations, while 39 states improved system rules and 22 states expanded the number of data sources they use to conduct ex parte reviews. In addition, 35 states process ex parte renewals on a mostly automated basis, which required system upgrades in some states. Among the 42 states that adopted 1902(e)(14)(A) waivers to increase ex parte rates for MAGI populations, allowing ex parte renewals for individuals with $0 income and with low income in some circumstances and using SNAP or TANF eligibility to confirm ongoing Medicaid eligibility were cited as the most useful waivers, and many states would like to make these permanent. CMS has extended the 1902(e)(14)(A) waivers through June 2025.
  • All states made changes to simplify or streamline the renewal process and they want to keep many of the changes in place after the unwinding period ends. In addition to improving ex parte processes, some states also made more targeted changes to revise renewal notices (22 states), simplify the renewal form (10 states), and extend the time to respond to renewal notices (7 states) that should make it easier for enrollees to complete the renewal process in the future.
  • States cite outreach to enrollees and engagement of health plans and community groups among the strategies that improved unwinding outcomes. States boosted direct outreach to enrollees through multiple modes, including text, email, and automated calls, and 37 states plan to maintain the enhanced outreach post unwinding. Additionally, over two-thirds (34) of states expect to continue engaging health plans and/or community-based organizations in the renewal process. States also note that these organizations played an important role in amplifying outreach and providing community-based assistance.
  • Several states are taking steps to improve coverage for children and pregnancy, including by increasing eligibility levels, providing continuous eligibility, and eliminating premiums for children’s coverage. In 2024, two states increased eligibility levels for children and/or pregnancy coverage and eight states extended coverage to certain immigrant children and/or pregnant individuals, and three states did both. Eighteen states have eligibility levels above the median for both children (255% FPL) and pregnancy (210% FPL). Building on the experience of continuous enrollment, several states have adopted or are pursuing multi-year continuous eligibility for young children, and there has been widespread adoption of 12-month postpartum coverage. And since 2020, ten states have eliminated or are poised to eliminate premiums for children’s coverage.

As the unwinding comes to an end, there is a lot to learn from state experiences during the past year. States made numerous policy and systems changes to improve the renewal process and they plan to maintain many of those changes. Additionally, the Eligibility and Enrollment final rule CMS issued earlier this year simplifies many eligibility and enrollment processes for Medicaid and CHIP by eliminating certain enrollment barriers in CHIP; facilitating transitions between coverage programs; and aligning enrollment and renewal requirements for most individuals in Medicaid. It makes some temporary policy changes permanent and will require additional changes over the next 36 months. CMS has also extended 1902(e)(14)(A) waivers through June 2025 while it continues to assess whether any waivers can be made permanent under other authority. Collectively, these changes to renewal and ex parte processes as well as eligibility expansions mean that the return to “routine” operations will not mean return to pre-pandemic operations. The impact these changes may have on continuity of coverage and churn and on overall Medicaid enrollment will be seen over the coming years.

Key Medicaid Ex Parte, Renewal Simplification, Communication, and Eligibility Strategies and Policies to Promote Continuity of Coverage

Detailed Summary

The Unwinding and Post-Unwinding

The timeline for completing all unwinding-related renewals has been extended beyond June 2024 in at least ten states. On May 31, 2024, CMS released preliminary estimates of when states will complete unwinding renewals. While most states are expected to complete renewals by June, Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, and Wisconsin will finish in July while Alaska, District of Columbia, Hawaii, North Carolina, and South Carolina will finish in August or later. New York’s completion month is still under development. Although it had been expected that all states would complete the unwinding by June 2024, some states voluntarily pushed out the deadline for returning renewals by a month or more to conduct targeted outreach and give enrollees more time to return renewal forms. Other states were required to pause disenrollments to correct a system glitch or address another issue that was uncovered during the unwinding.

Most states (41) have frontline eligibility staff vacancies while somewhat fewer states (32) report call center staff vacancies. Workforce challenges in most states have had a significant or moderate impact on the states’ ability to manage application and renewal workloads. Approximately two-thirds of states report moderate to significant impacts related to eligibility staff vacancies, recruitment, training, and retention. However, states report that the impact of workforce issues on call centers has been more modest.

All but four states are interested in maintaining flexibilities that have been most useful to simplifying renewal processes. Nearly all states adopted at least one 1902(e)(14)(A) waiver and most states would like to make some of the waivers permanent. Topping the list were two waivers CMS has already made permanent through the recently finalized Eligibility and Enrollment Rule – accepting updated contact information from Medicaid health plans, the USPS National Change of Address Database (NCOA) and/or mail returned with an in-state forwarding address from the USPS without further verification. States are also interested in continuing to enroll or renew individuals based on SNAP and/or TANF eligibility (25 states) and to renew coverage when no income data is reported (29 states) or reported income is below the poverty level (17 states). Given the positive impact some strategies have had on renewal outcomes, CMS has extended their use through June 2025 while the agency determines which can be implemented on a longstanding basis under other authorities. Additionally, certain 1902(e)(14)(A) waivers will need to be maintained as mitigation strategies in states with processes that do not fully comply with federal renewal requirements.

Most states (41) report they plan to continue improved communication with enrollees and/or engagement of health plans and community groups. States cite communications and the involvement of health community organizations as strategies that improved unwinding outcomes, including increased outreach to enrollees (37 states) and engaging health plans in the renewal process (31 states). Half of the states cited providing new ways for enrollees to update contact information (27 states); engaging community-based organizations in the renewal process (26 states); and maintaining enhanced online account functionality (26 states) as changes they intend to keep.

Data reporting has been important for monitoring the unwinding, and while half of states were uncertain about continuing to post renewal data or had planned to stop reporting, new guidance from CMS continues state monthly renewal outcome reporting. The CAA requires states to report renewal data and requires CMS to make the data public but only through June 2024. While data posted by CMS lag by 2-to-3 months, most states (42) post their own renewal-related data on a timelier basis. At the time of the survey, 15 states confirmed that they will continue reporting these data after the unwinding period ends, while 22 states were uncertain, and five states responded that they would not continue posting the data. However, on May 30, 2024, CMS issued new guidance stating that states are expected to continue reporting renewal monthly outcome data and encouraging states to maintain data dashboards or other timelier posting of data.

One-third of states (16) plan to resume periodic data checks that can lead to churn for low-wage earners. With continuous eligibility no longer in effect (except for children and pregnancy coverage), states may opt to conduct periodic data checks to identify potential changes in income or circumstances that could affect eligibility. Periodic data checks can exacerbate churn since low-income wage earners experience frequent fluctuations in income during the year. And, although states have the option to push out renewal dates for 12 months if ongoing eligibility is confirmed through a mid-year data check, only 3 of the 16 states plan to do so. Additionally, 7 of the 16 states provide only ten days for enrollees to respond to a request for information following a periodic data check although known delays in mail delivery can make it challenging for enrollees to submit information before coverage is terminated. Beginning in June 2027, in accordance with the Eligibility and Enrollment rule, states will be required to provide 30 days for enrollees to respond to requests for information, which aligns with the current rule for renewals.

Lessons Learned

States cited changing or unclear federal guidance, workforce issues, and the sheer volume of work as the top three challenges they faced during the unwinding. Other challenges centered on systems issues—the need to make systems changes and/or upgrades quickly to respond to the changing landscape or to implement new renewal flexibilities and fix limitations or problems with existing systems that hindered states’ ability to process renewals efficiently. States also noted difficulties engaging enrollees in the renewal process and communicating effectively about the renewal requirements and process.

Despite the challenges states faced, they made many changes to simplify and improve the renewal process, including improved outreach and enrollee communication, improved engagement with stakeholders and community organizations, and increased ex parte renewal rates. States also noted improved systems automation and building the infrastructure for data reporting and transparency as significant accomplishments in addition to streamlined renewal processes.

Systems and Online Tools

Most system improvements have been focused on increasing state ex parte renewal processes. Using reliable data to verify ongoing eligibility at renewal, known as ex parte or automated renewals, decreases the paperwork burden on states and enrollees while reducing gaps in coverage and extra work associated with re-enrollment of eligible people losing coverage for procedural reasons. All states have taken steps in the past two years to increase ex parte rates that include expanding data sources used for ex parte reviews and improving other system rules. In addition, 42 states reported adopting one or more 1902(e)(14)(A) waivers to improve ex parte rates for MAGI populations. Flexibilities allowed during the unwinding have helped states increase ex parte renewals rates and improve overall renewal outcomes.

Nearly all states (49) have online accounts with similar features but there are differences in requirements for setting up accounts and resetting passwords. Online accounts are a first step in applying for coverage since no state offers the ability to apply online without an account. Most online accounts provide a range of features for individuals, including checking their application status, viewing notices, reporting changes, renewing coverage, and uploading scanned or electronic verification documents. These accounts must be secure to protect personal information, and more than half of states (29) require new users to go through an identity verification process before setting up an account. In the 28 states that require multi-factor authentication, this security measure is required to set up an account in 25 states, to reset the password in 22 states, and every time the account is accessed in 13 states. The process for resetting the account password varies as well; users can reset passwords online by answering security questions (32 states) or through a link sent via email or text (33 states). In 29 states, users may contact the Medicaid call center to reset the password.

Eligibility and Enrollment Policies

Several states have expanded eligibility for children and pregnancy coverage, and two states newly adopted the Medicaid expansion in 2023. Arizona, Maine, and North Dakota expanded child eligibility levels over the past year while the median eligibility level remained unchanged. The median income eligibility for pregnancy coverage rose from 207% to 210% FPL with expansions in North Dakota, Nevada, and Tennessee. Several states newly waived the five-year waiting period for Medicaid and CHIP coverage for lawfully residing immigrant children and pregnant people (Georgia and New Hampshire) and for just pregnant people (North Dakota, Nevada, and Rhode Island). Adults with income up to 138% FPL are now eligible for Medicaid expansion in North Carolina and South Dakota.

Several states have made changes to children’s Medicaid and CHIP coverage. As of January 2024, all states are now required to keep children continuously enrolled for a full year with limited exceptions. However, 13 states are seeking to provide continuous eligibility beyond 12 months for young children. Additionally, since 2020, eight states (California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina) have eliminated their premiums or enrollment fees for children; Utah will eliminate premiums in July and Delaware has a pending request with CMS to eliminate premiums in its CHIP program. In the Eligibility and Enrollment regulation CMS made several changes to CHIP, including prohibiting new waiting and lock-out periods and requiring states with existing waiting and lock-out periods to eliminate them by June 2025.

Report

Introduction

The Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2023 (CAA), enacted in December 2022, ended the pandemic-era Medicaid continuous enrollment policy effective March 31, 2023, setting in motion final planning and preparations for the unwinding by state agencies and CMS. The CAA also phased down the enhanced FMAP through December 2023. To be eligible, states needed to meet specific maintenance of effort requirements including complying with federal renewal requirements, maintaining eligibility and enrollment procedures, taking actions to update contact information and address returned mail, and reporting specific data. During the three-year pause in Medicaid disenrollments, Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) enrollment grew by 32% from 71.3 million to 94.1 million, resulting in the largest ever number of enrollees. The unwinding of continuous enrollment and the unprecedented volume of eligibility work required coordination across federal and state governments, health plans, providers, and community-based organizations; careful planning; close monitoring; and rapid response to try to mitigate loss of Medicaid coverage among individuals remaining eligible.

In this context and with most states still conducting unwinding renewals, the 22nd annual survey of state Medicaid and CHIP program officials conducted by KFF and the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families in March 2024 presents a snapshot of actions states have taken to improve systems, processes, and communications during the unwinding, as well as key state Medicaid eligibility, enrollment, and renewal policies and procedures in place as of May 2024. The report focuses on policies for children, pregnant individuals, parents, and other non-elderly adults whose eligibility is based on Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) financial eligibility rules. Overall, 49 states and the District of Columbia responded to the survey, although response rates for specific questions varied (Florida was the only state that did not respond).(Back to top)

The Unwinding and Post-Unwinding

While the unwinding period was expected to end for all states by June 2024, in ten states, the timeline for completing renewals has been extended beyond June 2024. With all states initiating their first monthly batch of renewals no later than April 2023, it was expected that the unwinding would be complete by June 2024. However, due to concerns over high rates of procedural disenrollments, 15 states voluntarily pushed out the deadline for returning renewals by a month or more to conduct targeted outreach and give enrollees more time to complete and return renewal forms. Other states were required to pause procedural disenrollments and/or implement CMS-approved mitigation strategies as a temporary tactic to address areas of non-compliance with federal renewal requirements or other issues discovered during the unwinding. On May 31, 2024, CMS released preliminary estimates of when states will complete unwinding renewals. While most states are expected to complete renewals by June, Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, New Jersey, and Wisconsin will finish in July while Alaska, District of Columbia, Hawaii, North Carolina, and South Carolina will finish in August or later. New York’s completion month is still under development.

Most states (41) have frontline eligibility staff vacancies while somewhat fewer states (32) report call center staff vacancies. States experienced a significant or moderate impact because of eligibility staff vacancies (32 states), the need to recruit frontline eligibility staff (29 states), retaining staff (29 states), and training new workers (27 states) (Figure 2). Fewer states reported significant or moderate impacts from call center vacancies (17 states), recruiting additional call center personnel (17 states), retaining call center staff (18 states), and training new personnel (13 states).

Number of States Reporting Staffing Challenges on the Ability to Manage Application and Renewal Processing Workload

Over the past two years, all states have taken at least one action to improve ex parte renewal rates. Forty-two states adopted waiver flexibilities, while 39 states updated system rules and 22 states expanded the number of data sources they use to conduct ex parte reviews (Figure 3). A dozen states changed the order in which the state accesses various data sources to increase the number of reviews that produce a data match, and nine states revised limits on the age of data used to improve ex parte renewal rates. Among the 42 states that adopted 1902(e)(14)(A) waivers to increase ex parte rates for MAGI populations, nearly all (37) states reported that the flexibility allowing for ex parte renewals for individuals with $0 income in some circumstances was among the most helpful waivers. Other waivers that states said were most helpful were using SNAP eligibility to confirm ongoing Medicaid eligibility (26 states) and allowing ex parte renewals for individuals with low-income (23 states).

Strategies States Adopted to Increase Ex Parte Renewal Rates

The unwinding has accelerated state efforts to automate ex parte renewals, with 48 states reporting that most or some renewals are conducted by the system, including 35 states that have mostly automated ex parte renewals (Figure 4). Only two states (Delaware and Pennsylvania) report largely manual ex parte processes. However, fewer states report mostly automated processing of applications. While 48 states are able to determine eligibility in real-time at application (defined as 24 hours or less), only 37 states indicate that most or some real-time determinations of new applications are processed automatically by the eligibility system. The remaining 11 states report manual processes for real-time determinations at application, which generally only occur when an individual applies in person or by phone and the eligibility worker can verify eligibility immediately.

How Ex Parte Renewals Are Processed, May 2024

Although not required to do so, 22 of the 28 reporting states that operate separate CHIP programs transition a child enrolled in Medicaid to CHIP if the state has reliable data through the ex parte process that verifies the child’s eligibility for CHIP (Figure 5). In contrast, seven states do not transfer children from Medicaid to the state’s separate CHIP program if the family does not return the Medicaid renewal form. Automatically transferring an eligible child from Medicaid to the separate CHIP can help promote continuity of coverage for children. The recently finalized Eligibility and Enrollment Rule requires states to ensure seamless transitions between Medicaid and CHIP effective June 4, 2024.

Automated Transfer to Separate CHIP Program When Medicaid Ex Parte Review Confirms CHIP Eligibility, May 2024
Streamlining the Medicaid, Children’s Health Insurance Program and Basic Health Program Application, Eligibility Determination, Enrollment, and Renewal Processes Final Rule

On April 2, 2024, the CMS published the second part of a two-part final rule that simplifies the eligibility and enrollment processes for Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and the Basic Health Program (BHP). The first part was finalized earlier and addresses enrollment barriers in the Medicare Savings Program (MSP), a non-MAGI coverage group, which allows states to cover the cost of Medicare premiums for low-income seniors and people with disabilities. The second part of the rule addresses several eligibility and enrollment requirements affecting both MAGI and non-MAGI groups.

Post-Unwinding

Most states (42) are interested in maintaining 1902(e)(14)(A) waiver flexibilities that have been most useful to streamlining renewal processes and outcomes (Figure 6). The waiver strategies cited by the largest numbers of states – accepting updated contact information as verified from USPS sources (reported by 34 states) and health plans (reported by 29 states) – have already been made permanent through the Eligibility and Enrollment Rule. CMS currently is reviewing all other waiver strategies to determine which can be implemented on a longstanding basis under other authorities. In the meantime, these temporary strategies have been extended through June 2025 to protect enrollees from inappropriate terminations as states complete their unwinding periods and address any backlogs in processing new applications and re-enrollments. Other waiver strategies that states are interested in continuing include enrolling or renewing individuals based on SNAP and/or TANF eligibility (25 states) and renewing coverage when no income data is reported from state data sources (29 states) or reported income is below the poverty level (17 states).

All states boosted communications and/or engagement with community groups, and most are considering or plan to continue many of these changes beyond the unwinding period. Topping the list of strategies to maintain are increased outreach to enrollees (37 states) and engaging health plans in the renewal process (31 states). Half of the states (27) said they plan to maintain new ways for enrollees to update contact information; 26 states plan to both continue engaging community-based organizations in the renewal process and maintain enhanced online account functionality (Figure 6).

Changes Made to the Renewal Process During the Unwinding That States Are Considering or Plan to Continue

Data reporting has been important for monitoring the unwinding, and while half of states were uncertain about continuing to post renewal data or had planned to stop reporting, new guidance from CMS continues monthly renewal outcome reporting. The CAA requires states to report renewal data and for CMS to make the data public but only through June 2024. While these data help CMS quickly pinpoint concerning trends, the 2- to 3-month lag in public posting by CMS makes it less useful for rapid response by Medicaid stakeholders. Nonetheless, this is the first time that comparable renewal data for all states have been publicly available. Medicaid stakeholders can access the state’s unwinding data on a timelier basis in 42 states that post their own data. At the time the survey was fielded, only 15 of those states confirmed that they were planning to continue posting these data after the unwinding period ends while 22 states were uncertain, and five states responded that they would not continue posting the data. However, on May 30, 2024, CMS released additional guidance stating that states are expected to continue reporting monthly renewal outcomes data to CMS, along with other metrics related to applications and fair hearings. CMS also encouraged states to maintain public dashboards and timelier posting of data after the unwinding period ends.

About a third of states (17) report that enhanced efforts to update enrollee contact information helped reduce returned mail rates while most states (30) did not have data to confirm. The CAA required states to update enrollee contact information and make a good faith effort to address returned mail; similar requirements will become permanent in December 2025 under the Eligibility and Enrollment Rule. States must implement (or retain) processes to regularly obtain information and to update contact information from reliable sources without further verification. If information is received from a reliable source, the state must accept the information as reliable, update the case record, and notify the enrollee of the change. The rule establishes that reliable data sources include mail returned by the United States Postal Service (USPS) with an in-state forwarding address; the USPS National Change of Address (NCOA) database; contracted managed care organizations, prepaid health plans, and primary care case management entities (PCCM); and other data sources identified by the agency and approved by the Secretary.

Lessons Learned

States cited changing or unclear federal guidance, workforce challenges, and the sheer volume of work as the top three challenges they faced during the unwinding (Figure 7). Other challenges centered on systems issues—the need to make systems changes and/or upgrades quickly to respond to the changing landscape or to implement new renewal flexibilities and limitations or problems with their existing system that hindered states’ ability to process renewals efficiently. States also noted challenges with engaging enrollees in the renewal process and communicating effectively about the renewal requirements and process.

Despite the challenges states faced, they made many changes to simplify and improve the renewal process, including improved outreach and enrollee communication, improved engagement with stakeholders and community organizations, and increased ex parte renewal rates (Figure 7). States also noted Improved systems automation and building the infrastructure for data reporting and transparency as significant accomplishments as well as streamlined renewal processes.

State-reported Lessons Learned During the Unwinding Period

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Systems and Enrollment Processes

Eligibility System Integration and Administration

Twenty-two states operate their own State-Based Marketplaces (SBM) but only ten of those states have integrated Medicaid and CHIP into their SBM eligibility systems (Figure 8). Nine SBM states operate an SBM eligibility system that is separate from the MAGI-Medicaid system and three SBM states (Arkansas, Georgia, and Oregon) use the Federally-Facilitated Marketplace (FFM) system – Healthcare.gov – along with the 29 states that rely solely on the federal marketplace. Of the 32 states that use the FFM, nine states (Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, West Virginia, and Wyoming) accept a Medicaid determination from the FFM based on the state’s eligibility rules (though Missouri is only temporarily accepting determinations from the FFM). The remaining states allow the FFM to assess Medicaid eligibility and process an account transfer from the FFM as a new application.

Integration of Marketplace And MAGI-Medicaid/CHIP Eligibility Systems in States With a State-Based Marketplace (SBM), May 2024

Progress in integrating non-MAGI and non-health programs into the Medicaid and CHIP eligibility system took a back seat to unwinding system changes. In preparing for the unwinding, system changes to facilitate renewals became the highest priority for states. An integrated system makes it easier for individuals to apply for multiple benefits and increases administrative efficiency by aligning eligibility tasks and sharing data. Most states delinked those programs in building new MAGI-based systems required by the ACA but had been making steady progress in re-integrating non-MAGI and non-health programs into their new MAGI-based Medicaid systems. With the priority on system changes needed to manage the unwinding, the count of states with other program eligibility integrated in state MAGI-based eligibility systems remained steady: non-MAGI Medicaid in 36 states; SNAP and TANF in 28 states, and childcare subsidies in 15 states (Figure 9). Of the ten states with an integrated Marketplace and MAGI-based Medicaid system, only Kentucky and Rhode Island have integrated non-MAGI Medicaid and non-health programs into their SBM systems.

Number of States That Have Integrated Non-MAGI Medicaid And Non-Health Programs Into the System That Determines MAGI-Medicaid Eligibility, May 2024

The agency and staff responsible for Medicaid determinations vary across states. While Medicaid agencies can delegate eligibility determinations to another government agency that maintains personnel standards on a merit basis, the Medicaid agency remains responsible for oversight and adherence to federal rules. In 25 states, the Medicaid agency is responsible for processing applications and renewals, while the state’s sister Human Services agency does so in 20 states. In two states (Illinois and Virginia), the responsibility is shared between the two agencies, while the SBM administers Medicaid and CHIP eligibility in Maryland and New York. In 37 states, only state workers process both applications and renewals while a smaller number of states use only county workers for processing applications (6 states) and renewals (4 states). Both state and county workers process Medicaid applications in seven states and renewals in nine states. States may use contractors to assist with administrative tasks related to processing Medicaid applications and renewals but may not delegate determinations to external contractors. With the volume of work during the unwinding period, 29 states reported they currently use contractors to provide administrative support to Medicaid eligibility staff and 21 said they will continue to use contractors when the unwinding period ends.

In 2023, Maine and North Carolina transitioned all child enrollees from the state’s separate CHIP program to a CHIP-funded Medicaid expansion program, bringing the total number of M-CHIP states to 21. Since 2020, a total of five states, including Illinois, Kentucky (which was approved in July 2023 retroactive to July 2022), and Wyoming have transitioned from a separate CHIP to M-CHIP. Rules governing administration of and eligibility processing in separate CHIP programs differ from Medicaid. States may choose to cover all uninsured children eligible for CHIP in Medicaid (known as M-CHIP), through a separate CHIP program only (2 states), or through a combination of a separate CHIP and M-CHIP (28 states). Covering CHIP children in Medicaid streamlines administration and provides all children with child-focused EPSDT Medicaid benefits and other Medicaid protections, including limitations on cost-sharing, while operating a separate CHIP allows states to alter benefit packages and delivery systems and provides more flexibility to impose premiums and cost sharing. Although separate CHIP programs have more flexibility in benefit design, half of the 30 states with separate CHIP programs provide EPSDT benefits to all children.

Income Verification

States use a variety of data sources to determine income eligibility; these sources are critical to processing real-time applications and ex parte renewals. States have flexibility in choosing the data sources and age of the data that are used to comply with ACA requirements in first attempting to determine eligibility using reliable data available to the state before requiring paper documentation from the individual. Most states use the state unemployment database (44 states) or the state wage database (42 states), while 38 use commercial databases (e.g., TALX or the Work Number) and 37 states access SNAP data (Figure 10). Fewer states use IRS data (19 states) or state tax department data (6 states). State limitations on the age of the data vary by source. In most states, the age of data is restricted to less than 12 months but can be less than three months, which may lessen the state’s ability to determine eligibility in real-time (less than 24 hours) or renew coverage on an ex parte basis.

Number of Data Sources That States Use to Verify Income, May 2024

Most states (39) verify income eligibility before determining eligibility at application. All states must verify income eligibility but may opt to do so either prior to or post enrollment. Eleven states base a preliminary determination on the applicant’s attestation of income and verify post-enrollment.

Most states (39) also apply a reasonable compatibility standard to account for differences in reported income and data sources. If reported income and the state’s electronic data source are both below, at, or above the income eligibility limit, the state must accept the finding without reconciling the difference. Additionally, with approval from CMS, states may set a reasonable compatibility standard – that is an acceptable level of variance, as either a percentage of income or a specific dollar amount to account for any difference between the individual’s income attestation and the income data source. For example, in a state with a 10% reasonable compatibility standard, if an applicant’s attestation of income is below the eligibility threshold and the data source is above the threshold, but within 10% of the attestation, the attestation and data source are considered reasonably compatible, and the applicant is determined eligible.

Two-thirds of states (39) apply reasonable compatibility standards when the individual’s attestation is below the income eligibility limit and the data source is above the threshold. When data are not reasonably compatible, states have the option to accept a reasonable explanation (such as I lost my job), which 28 states do, while 22 states require documentation. Eleven states do not apply a reasonable compatibility standard but ask for explanation or require documentation if attested income differs from the data source. When the income attestation is above the eligibility limit and the data source is below, most states (38) accept the individual’s attestation, determine the individual ineligible, and transfer the account to the Marketplace.

Applications, Online Accounts, and Community-Assister Portals

In most states, online MAGI Medicaid applications also allow individuals to apply for non-MAGI Medicaid, as well as other benefits and/or Marketplace subsidies. In 41 states, individuals can apply for both MAGI and non-MAGI-based Medicaid using the same online application portal. Nearly one-third of states have integrated SNAP (31 states) and TANF (29 states) in their online Medicaid applications while 18 states also use their multi-benefit applications to enable families to apply for child care assistance. Of the 19 SBM states with their own SBM eligibility systems, 15 allow applicants to use the same application for Marketplace premium tax credits. That leaves just two states with an online application that is limited to MAGI-based Medicaid. While all states, except Colorado, allow individuals to apply with an electronic signature through a smartphone or tablet, 40 states have taken steps to ensure that applications are mobile-friendly, up from 31 states in 2023.

States offer a variety of ways to submit documentation when eligibility cannot be confirmed through data sources. All states accept documents through the mail; other mechanisms include dropping off at a local office (49 states), through the online account (47 states), via fax (48 states), through email (36 states) or through the state’s mobile app (12 states).

States are maximizing the features of online accounts to assist new applicants and enrollees in monitoring and managing their coverage. To apply online, applicants must first set up an online account as no state offers an online application that is separate from online account management. Beyond allowing enrollees to apply, the 49 states with online accounts offer a range of features including renewing coverage (48 states), reviewing application status (47 states), viewing notices (47 states), reporting changes (45 states), uploading documents (44 states), and authorizing third party access (31 states) (Figure 11). Seventeen states have integrated a Chatbot feature in their online accounts. In the 47 states that allow users to view notices through their online accounts, 34 states report that notices are available indefinitely while 12 states indicate that notices are time-limited, generally available for one to four years, though three states allow notices to only be viewed for less than a year. In the 42 states that permit enrollees to submit renewal documents after a procedural termination, 28 allow individuals to submit renewal information at least 90 days after being procedurally disenrolled, which aligns with the 90-day reconsideration period during which an individual who was procedurally disenrolled may submit needed information without completing a new application.

Number of States with Selected Features for Online Accounts, May 2024

The 49 states with online accounts have similar features but there are differences in requirements for setting up accounts and resetting passwords. Online accounts must be secure to protect personal information, though security features can create barriers to accessing accounts for some enrollees. More than half of states (29) require new users to go through an identity verification process before setting up an account. In addition, in the 28 states that require multi-factor authentication, this security measure is required to set up an account in 25 states, to reset the password in 22 states, and every time the account is accessed in 13 states (Figure 12). The process for resetting the account password varies as well with many states (32) offering more than one way; users can reset passwords online by answering security questions in 32 states, through a link sent via email or text in 33 states, or by contacting the Medicaid call center in 29 states.

Number of States With Selected Features for Ongoing Management of Online Accounts, May 2024

Half of the states (26) have a portal for assisters and community groups to submit facilitated applications (Figure 13). These portals are available to a range of entities depending on the state, including federal and state navigators and application assisters, community health centers, hospitals and other providers, managed care organizations, and community-based organizations that help those in need of assistance with applying for and renewing Medicaid and CHIP coverage. All 26 states with a separate community assistance portal allow assisters to submit applications and most states allow assisters to review application status (23 states) and upload documents (21 states), but other features are more limited. Assisters are permitted to submit renewal information through the portal in 18 states; report changes in circumstances or update mailing addresses in 17 states; and view notices, actions required by the enrollee, and view renewal dates in 15 states. Secure assister portals create administrative efficiencies by allowing assisters to perform tasks that facilitate enrollment and renewal and providing a mechanism for states to monitor assister performance.

States with Online Portals for Community Assisters, May 2024

Renewal Processes and Changes in Circumstances

Nearly all states (45) initiate ex parte data processes at least 60 days prior to the end of an individual’s renewal period. States are required to provide MAGI-based enrollees with at least 30 days to return renewal forms or provide needed information. Thus, ex parte processes need to be initiated with sufficient time to check available data sources, determine which renewals can be automatically redetermined, and generate notices or print and mail renewal forms to enrollees whose ongoing eligibility cannot be redetermined automatically. About a quarter of states (13) initiate the ex parte process 90 days in advance of the end of the renewal period, 9 states initiate between 60 and 90 days, nearly half of the states (23) initiate ex parte data matches 60 days in advance while 3 states do so between 45 and 60 days.

Almost all states send out pre-populated renewal notices with enough lead time to ensure that enrollees have 30 or more days to respond. In some states, renewal forms and notices are generated automatically after the system has attempted an ex parte review. Three-quarters of states send out notices from 40 to 60 days (41 states) in advance, and 5 states send out forms from roughly 75 to 90 days in advance. Three states send out renewal notices 30 days before the renewal is due, which is the federal minimum requirement. Due to potential mail delays, sending forms further in advance may give enrollees more time to respond.

States offer several ways for enrollees to check their renewal dates, and provide renewal date information to health plans, providers, and navigators or other assisters to increase outreach about renewals. During the unwinding knowing one’s renewal date became important since many enrollees were not required to complete a renewal during the 3-year pause on disenrollments. In 44 states, enrollees can access their renewal date by contacting the call center, and in 43 states, enrollees can find the date in their online account. Enrollees can find their renewal date in their mobile app in 12 states. Nearly half of the states (24) use text messages to remind enrollees of their renewal date, and 11 states provide other mechanisms including mail or through the managed care plan or a local office. Minnesota and Rhode Island created an online renewal lookup tool to facilitate access to renewal dates. States also provide access to information that includes enrollees’ renewal dates to health plans (36 states), federally qualified health centers (15 states), pharmacists (9 states), other Medicaid providers (17 states), and navigators and/or assisters (18) states. These entities may share renewal information with members, patients, and clients of upcoming renewal dates to encourage them to complete and return the form.

One-third of the states (16) plan to conduct periodic data matches between renewals to identify changes in circumstances (Figure 14). States may only conduct renewals once a year for MAGI enrollees, but without continuous eligibility, states are required to act on reported changes in circumstances that affect eligibility, most often relating to income. States may opt to conduct periodic data checks to identify changes, which are more likely to impact low-income wage earners who experience frequent income fluctuations during the year. In these cases, enrollees may churn off and back onto coverage, creating gaps in access and continuity of care, as well as creating additional work for eligibility staff. If ongoing eligibility is confirmed through a mid-year data check, states have the option to push out renewal dates for 12 months but only 3 of the 16 states that conduct periodic data matches do this even if the state has all the information needed to do so. Additionally, nearly half of these states (7) provide only ten days for enrollees to respond to a request for information although known delays in mail delivery can make it challenging for enrollees to submit information before coverage is terminated. The Eligibility and Enrollment rule will require states to provide 30 days for enrollees to respond to requests for information beginning in June 2027, which aligns with the current rules for renewals.

States Conducting Routine Electronic Data Matches Between Annual Renewal Periods to Identify Changes in Income Post-Unwinding

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Medicaid and CHIP Eligibility

Child eligibility remains the highest for all MAGI eligibility groups, with the median children’s upper eligibility level holding steady at 255% FPL. Three states expanded children’s eligibility levels–Arizona increased eligibility from 205% FPL to 230% FPL in its separate CHIP program, Maine raised eligibility from 213% FPL to 305% FPL, while North Dakota expanded child eligibility to 205% FPL, up from 175% FPL. With the increased eligibility in North Dakota, Idaho now has the lowest eligibility level for children at 190% FPL and is the only state with a child eligibility level below 200% FPL. New York still has the highest child eligibility level at 405% FPL. As of May 2024, 20 states cover children at or above 300% FPL (Figure 15).

Income Eligibility Limits for Children in Medicaid/CHIP, May 2024

The median eligibility limit for pregnancy coverage in Medicaid and CHIP increased to 210% FPL with eligibility expansions in three states. Nevada, North Dakota, and Tennessee all increased eligibility levels for pregnancy coverage; Tennessee implemented the most significant change, increasing the pregnancy eligibility level from 200% FPL to 255% FPL. As of May 2024, 36 states provide pregnancy coverage to individuals with income at or above 200% FPL. Eligibility levels range from 138% FPL in Idaho and South Dakota to 380% FPL in Iowa. However, Iowa recently passed legislation that will reduce eligibility for pregnancy and infant coverage in Medicaid, lowering the eligibility levels to 215% FPL effective January 1, 2025 (infants will be covered up to 307% FPL in the state’s separate CHIP program). The CAA made permanent the option for states to extend Medicaid postpartum coverage to 12 months. As of June 2024, 47 states have implemented the 12-month extension.

North Carolina and South Dakota newly implemented the Medicaid expansion and now cover adults with incomes up to 138% percent FPL, leaving ten states without Medicaid expansion. South Dakota voters passed a ballot initiative in 2022 and the state implemented coverage in July 2023. In May 2023, North Carolina passed legislation to adopt Medicaid expansion and coverage began in December 2023, making it the first state to implement Medicaid expansion via legislative action, rather than a ballot initiative, since Virginia in 2018. As of May 2024, parents and adults without dependent children with incomes at or below 138% FPL ($20,783 per year for an individual; $35,632 for a family of three in 2024) are covered in 41 states.

In states that have not implemented Medicaid expansion, median eligibility for parents decreased to 34% FPL. Five of the remaining non-expansion states (Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Texas, and Wyoming) use fixed dollar thresholds to determine income eligibility for parents and caretaker relatives (Tennessee recently received CMS approval to set parent eligibility at 105% FPL rather than base eligibility on a fixed dollar amount). Dollar thresholds are not routinely updated so the equivalent federal poverty level eligibility threshold decreases over time as the federal poverty level increases to account for inflation. In 2024, Mississippi was the only state to adjust its dollar threshold, from $480 per month to $492 for a family of three. Eligibility for parents and caretaker relatives ranges from a low of 15% FPL in Texas to 105% FPL in Tennessee and 100% in Wisconsin, with median eligibility at 34% FPL for the ten non-expansion states (Figure 16). Of the ten states that have not implemented Medicaid expansion, Wisconsin is the only one that provides coverage to adults without dependent children based on income eligibility, setting eligibility at the same level as parents (100% FPL) through a section 1115 waiver. In September 2023, Georgia implemented a waiver to cover parents who do not qualify for section 1931 parent/caretaker eligibility and childless adults with incomes up to 100% FPL if they meet a work and premium requirement as conditions of initial and continued eligibility.

Medicaid Income Eligibility Limits for Adults in States That Have Not Implemented the Medicaid Expansion, May 2024

Non-expansion states have lower median eligibility levels for all MAGI Medicaid groups. Although no non-expansion state covers adults without dependent children, these states also have lower median eligibility levels for children (234% FPL compared to 266% FPL in expansion states), for pregnancy coverage (203% FPL compared to 213% FPL), and for parents (34% FPL compared to 138% FPL) (Figure 17).

Median Medicaid Income Eligibility Limits Based on Implementation of Medicaid Expansion, May 2024

As of May 2024, 45 states have adopted federally funded options to extend coverage to some immigrant children and/or pregnant individuals (Figure 18). Most lawfully residing immigrants must wait five years after they obtain qualified status before they can enroll in Medicaid or CHIP. However, states have the option to waive the five-year waiting period for lawfully residing children and pregnant people. As of May 2024, 37 states have adopted this option for children and 31 states have taken up the option for pregnant people in Medicaid, as have six of the seven states using CHIP to cover pregnant adults. All states covering recent lawful residents during pregnancy, except North Dakota and Wyoming, have adopted the option for children as well. Michigan is planning to eliminate the waiting period for children and pregnant individuals in August and Indiana plans to do so in 2025. In addition, states can provide pregnancy coverage regardless of immigration status through the From Conception to the End of Pregnancy (FCEP) option in CHIP. Twenty-four states provide this coverage, including two states (Maryland and New York) and the District of Columbia that newly adopted the FCEP option in 2023 and early 2024. Almost a dozen states (11) are also providing 12 months of postpartum coverage for FCEP enrollees using CHIP health services initiative funds or state funds, and one state (Maryland) is providing four months of postpartum coverage.

Federally-Funded Coverage of Lawfully Residing Immigrant Children and Pregnant People Without a 5-Year Waiting Period, May 2024

States are increasingly using state-only funds to extend coverage or limited benefits to some immigrant children, pregnant individuals, and other adults who do not have federal pathways to coverage. Thirteen states now cover all income-eligible children regardless of immigration status using state funds, although Connecticut only covers children under age 13 and Utah, which newly implemented this coverage, caps the number of children who can be enrolled. Vermont and New Jersey also provide state-funded coverage to pregnant people who do not qualify for federal funding, although New Jersey’s coverage is limited to pre-natal care. As of May 2024, ten states use state-only funds to cover other immigrant adults who are otherwise ineligible, including three states (California, District of Columbia, and Oregon) that cover all income-eligible adults regardless of immigration status.

Two states, Illinois and Michigan, newly implemented family planning expansion programs, increasing the median eligibility level for these programs to 210% FPL. Thirty-three states now use federal funds through a state plan option or waiver to cover family planning only services. Oklahoma also expanded eligibility for its family planning program from 138% FPL to 210% FPL, which aligns with eligibility levels for pregnancy coverage in the state. As of May 2024, eligibility levels ranged from 138% FPL in Louisiana to 306% FPL in Wisconsin.

Most states suspend Medicaid coverage for adults (45 states) during incarceration (Figure 19). Federal law provides that incarceration status does not preclude eligibility for Medicaid. However, Medicaid benefits are limited to inpatient services requiring at least a 24-hour stay in a medical institution. Since passage of the ACA, more individuals entering and leaving carceral settings are eligible for Medicaid. In response, more states have opted to suspend rather than terminate coverage for adults to facilitate reinstatement of coverage upon release. New rules that went into effect on October 24, 2019 prohibit states from terminating coverage for eligible juveniles. The CAA requires states to suspend rather than terminate Medicaid coverage for all individuals who are incarcerated starting January 1, 2026.

Medicaid Coverage for Adults Entering the Justice System, May 2024

All children in Medicaid and CHIP are now protected from mid-year churn with mandatory 12-month continuous eligibility while 13 states are taking additional steps to provide multi-year continuous eligibility for children. Twelve-month continuous eligibility was a longstanding state option for children although only about half the states had adopted the policy in Medicaid. As of January 2024, all states are now required to keep children continuously enrolled for a full year with limited exceptions for moving out of state or requesting voluntary disenrollment. However, 13 states are seeking to provide continuous eligibility beyond 12 months for young children, which promotes continuity of coverage and access to care during the early development period. New Mexico, Oregon, and Washington have federal approval to cover eligible children continuously from birth to age six, while ten other states have submitted section 1115 waivers or are in the process of developing waivers to implement multi-year continuous eligibility for young children (Table 2). Oregon has also received federal approval to cover children over the age of six and all adults for two continuous years. Nine other states also cover or are proposing to cover targeted adult groups for continuous periods, including three states that provide multi-year continuous eligibility and six states that provide 12-month continuous eligibility to all or some adults (Massachusetts provides both 12-month continuous eligibility for all adults and 24-month continuous eligibility to adults experiencing homelessness).

States Providing Multi-Year Continuous Eligibility

Nine states have retained waiting periods before an uninsured child is eligible for CHIP, down from 38 states a decade ago. CHIP waiting periods are a mechanism to discourage families from dropping group insurance to enroll in CHIP. Citing little evidence of substitution of coverage and temporary coverage options available to CHIP-eligible children during a waiting period, the Eligibility and Enrollment final rule eliminates CHIP waiting periods effective June 2025.

Premiums and Non-Payment Policies for Children

Twenty-one states charge premiums for children (Figure 20). States cannot impose premiums in Medicaid or M-CHIP for children with income below 150% FPL but are permitted to charge premiums in their separate CHIP programs with family incomes as low as 133% FPL. Under federal rules, the maximum out-of-pocket costs for all enrolled members of families can be required to pay is limited to no more than 5% of total family income, which states must track to ensure families do not pay more than the cap. During the COVID-19 public health emergency, most states that charged premiums suspended or waived them for some or all enrollees. As of May 2024, premiums remain suspended in four states (Arizona, Delaware, Georgia, and Vermont). California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, and North Carolina all removed CHIP premiums since 2020, and Utah will eliminate premiums in July but will increase other cost-sharing requirements at the same time. Delaware is awaiting CMS approval to discontinue premiums entirely and Vermont has suspended premiums indefinitely.

Premiums for Children in Medicaid and CHIP, May 2024

Premium amounts and periodicity vary by state. States may impose premiums on a monthly, quarterly, or annual (also known as an enrollment fee) basis. Most states (17) that charge premiums do so monthly while one state charges quarterly premiums (NV) and 2 states (AL and TX) require an annual enrollment fee. Premiums can be family-based (7 states) or charged per child, either with a family maximum that limits the amount of premiums a household pays (10 states) or without a family cap (3 states). As of May 2024, the maximum premium or enrollment fee for one child ranges from $15 in Idaho to $159 in Missouri. The premium amount often varies by income level. Six states charge premiums to children with family incomes below 150% FPL. New York eliminated premiums for the lowest income band in 2022, so premiums now begin at 222% FPL instead of 160% FPL.

New federal rules will affect states’ current policies for non-payment of premiums, including for the nine states that have lockout periods. As part of the CAA, 12-month continuous eligibility for children in Medicaid and CHIP became mandatory for all states. With this change which went into effect January 1, 2024, states are no longer allowed to disenroll individuals for non-payment of premiums after initial enrollment. In the Eligibility and Enrollment regulation CMS made several changes to CHIP, including prohibiting states from locking enrollees out of coverage as a penalty for non-payment of premiums. While new lockout periods cannot be established in states that do not have them, states that currently impose a lockout have until June 2025 to eliminate the policy. As of May 2024, eight states have a lock-out period, with seven imposing the maximum allowable lock-out period of 90 days (Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Washington). Since 2020, Massachusetts and Wisconsin have eliminated lock-out periods in CHIP.(Back to top)

Appendix Tables

Income Eligibility Limits for Children's Health Coverage as a Percent Of The Federal Poverty Level, May 2024

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Selected Policy Options in CHIP, May 2024

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 Medicaid and CHIP Coverage for Pregnant Individuals and Medicaid Family Planning Coverage, May 2024

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State Adoption of Options to Cover Immigrant Populations, May 2024

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Medicaid Income Eligibility Limits for Adults as a Percent of the Federal Poverty Level and Coverage for Adults Entering Justice System, May 2024

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Integration of MAGI-Medicaid Eligibility Systems with Marketplace Systems, Non-MAGI Medicaid, and Non-Health Programs, May 2024

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Agency and Staff Responsible for Processing Applications and Renewals in Medicaid and CHIP, May 2024

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Real-Time Eligibility Determinations at Application and Ex Parte Renewal Processing, May 2024

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Data Sources Used to Verify Income for MAGI Medicaid Applications, May 2024

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Income Verification Procedures, May 2024

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Features of Online Medicaid Applications, May 2024

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Features of Online Medicaid Accounts, May 2024

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Security Features of Online Medicaid Accounts, May 2024

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Viewing Notices and Submitting Renewal Information Through Online Accounts, May 2024

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Modes to Submit Verification Documentation at Application and Renewal, May 2024

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Features of Online Portals for Community Assisters, May 2024

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Timing of Ex Parte Processes and Sending Renewal Forms to Enrollees, May 2024

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Enrollee and Entity Ability to Access Enrollees' Renewal Dates, May 2024

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Use of Periodic Data Matches Between Renewals and Response Time for a Change in Circumstances, May 2024

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Premiums and Enrollment Fees for Children, May 2024

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State Actions to Improve Ex Parte Renewal Rates, May 2024

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1902(e)(14)(A) Waivers Identified by States as 'Most Helpful' for Increasing Ex Parte Renewal Rates, May 2024

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Renewal Process Changes Made During the Unwinding that States Are Considering or Plan to Continue After Unwinding Ends, May 2024

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Impact of Frontline Eligibility Workforce Challenges on Ability to Manage Application and Renewal Processing Workload, May 2024

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Impact of Call Center Workforce Challenges on Managing Call Center Volume, May 2024

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Anticipated Unwinding End Dates, Plans to Continue Reporting Unwinding Data, and Results of Actions to Reduce Returned Mail Rates, May 2024

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Poll Finding

KFF Survey of Women Voters: Key Takeaways

Published: Jun 20, 2024

The KFF Survey of Women Voters examines the attitudes, motivations, and voting intentions of women voters nationally—and in two battleground states, Arizona and Michigan—fewer than six months prior to the 2024 election. This project was intentionally designed to provide insights into the largest, and very diverse, dynamic, and influential voting group in this country: women.

Women voters will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential and down-ballot elections, including the future of abortion access in many states. And while women voters constitute a majority of all voters in most elections, they are a diverse voting bloc with varying opinions and experiences across partisanship, race and ethnicity, and age. This survey is unique in its ability to report on a nationally representative sample of some of the most important groups of women voters including Black women voters, Hispanic women voters, women voters across age groups including those of reproductive age (ages 18-49), women voters by partisanship, and White women (who are the largest group of voters, representing about two-fifths of the total electorate, but rarely vote as a monolith).

As voters weigh their options for the presidency and Congress, as well as decide the future of abortion access in some states through ballot initiatives, the KFF Survey of Women Voters highlights the deciding factors for women voters this fall. The results presented below are from a multi-mode survey of more than 3,000 women voters from state registration voter files, including 1,383 women voters living across the U.S. as well as 928 women voters in Arizona and 876 Michigan women voters. The KFF Survey of Women Voters Dashboard includes more data from the survey, as well as the topline and methodology. View all reports from this survey.

Key Takeaways From the National Poll

Any path to the presidency for either President Biden or former President Trump requires maintaining the support they received among segments of women voters in 2020 and gaining votes among other groups of women voters. A path to victory for President Biden would need to include strong support from Black women voters, as well as support among Hispanic women voters and suburban women. A path to victory for former President Trump necessitates motivating Republican women to turn out as well as making gains among groups that haven’t voted for him in previous elections. The KFF Survey of Women Voters points to a close presidential election where small shifts in voter turnout or voting across the political aisle could make a big difference in determining the outcome of the race.

Most Women Voters Are Frustrated and Anxious About the Presidential Race, Say They Are Unsatisfied with their Options

Women voters are not overly enthusiastic about the upcoming 2024 presidential election, with six in ten saying they aren’t satisfied with their choices for president and one in five (21%) saying they are “less motivated” to vote in this election compared to previous ones. More than one in four independent women voters1  (31%), Black women voters (28%), and Hispanic women voters (27%) say they are less motivated to vote this year. More than half of these groups of women, who both candidates hope to persuade, say they are not satisfied with their options for president including more than three-fourths of independent women voters. Check out the dashboard to see why women voters say they are dissatisfied with their choices for president.

Most women voters say they feel “frustrated” or “anxious” about the upcoming presidential election. Far fewer say they are “hopeful” (53%) or “enthusiastic” (33%). But this doesn’t mean they are apathetic; only one in five women voters say they are “uninterested” in the election. The poll suggests Republican women are slightly more motivated to vote (53% say this compared to 44% of Democratic women voters) and more likely to report feeling hopeful and enthusiastic about the election.2 

A Majority of Women Voters Across Partisans Say They Feel "Frustrated" and "Anxious" About the Upcoming Election

Biden Supporters Prioritize Candidate Characteristics, Trump Supporters Say They Are Voting on the Issues

Voters make decisions about which candidates to support based on a variety of factors, but most women voters who plan to vote for former President Trump say their support isn’t necessarily based on his leadership ability, character, values, or experience. Rather, half of women who plan to vote for Trump say the candidates’ stances on specific issues will make the biggest difference in how they vote. By comparison, two-thirds of women who plan to vote for President Biden say the candidates’ personal characteristics matter most to their vote. With both presidential candidates well-known to the electorate, it appears many women voters, namely Black women voters, Hispanic women voters, and older women voters, say the candidates’ leadership ability, character, values, and experience are driving their decisions. These are all groups that President Biden is hoping will turn out in support of his candidacy, but currently he is garnering larger shares of support only among Black women. While President Biden currently has an advantage among younger women voters, ages 18 to 29, this group values candidates’ stances on specific issues and personal characteristics similarly.

Six in Ten Older Women Say This Election is About Candidates' Personal Characteristics and Leadership Ability; Younger Women and Trump Voters Are Split on Whether the Issues or Candidates Matter More

Turning Out the Base Will Be Key for Both Presidential Candidates

Half of the most consistent women voters, those who have routinely shown up to vote in the past three elections (if they were age eligible in 2016) including the 2022 midterm election, say they plan on voting for President Biden – suggesting that, encouraging these routine voters to turn out could be an important part of his strategy. But support for President Biden among younger Democratic women may be weaker. Former President Trump has support among the vast majority of Republican women regardless of age, something that isn’t mirrored for President Biden and his support among Democratic women. About nine in ten Republican women ages 18 to 49, and 50 and older say they plan on voting for former President Trump. In comparison, while nine in ten Democratic women ages 50 and older say they plan on voting for President Biden, this drops to a smaller majority (77%) of Democratic women ages 18 to 49 – which could matter in states with close presidential races.

A majority (70%) of Black women voters – a group that President Biden won overwhelmingly in 2020 (90% of Black women voters voted for President Biden according to exit polls), say they plan on voting for President Biden, but now about one in six say they may either stay home on Election Day or vote for a third-party candidate.

In addition, while most women who voted in 2020 say they are going to pick the same candidate this year, about one in six women who voted for Biden in 2020 say they will either not vote or will vote for a different candidate this year, including 7% who say they plan to vote for former President Trump. By contrast, just 1% of women voters who voted for Trump in 2020 say they plan on voting for Biden in 2024.

Inflation Dominates Top Issues For Women Voters; Younger Women Voters Also Identify U.S. Involvement in the War Between Israel and Hamas in Gaza as a Voting Concern

Four in ten women voters say inflation is the most important issue determining their vote in the 2024 presidential race. This is followed by about one in five (22%) who say threats to democracy is the most salient issue for them. Fewer say immigration and border security (13%), abortion (10%), gun policy (4%), the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza (3%), or the war in Ukraine (1%) are the most important issues for them headed into this election. While inflation is among the top voting issues for many key groups of women voters (including Black women, Hispanic women, younger women, Democratic women, and Republican women overall) there are differences in issue priority not only by partisanship, but also age.

For example, women voters ages 50 and older are divided by partisanship on their top voting issue. More than a third of older Republican women cite immigration (36%) and inflation (37%) as their top issue, while half of older Democratic women say “threats to democracy” is the most important issue determining their vote. Democratic women overall, are more likely than Republican women and independent women to say threats to democracy are their most important voting issue. Click here to see the ranking of voting issues among various groups of women voters.

In addition to ranking inflation as a top issue, many women voters also say they worry about the cost of everyday expenses, and large shares do not trust either political party to handle the rising costs they face. This emphasis on inflation is especially notable given that many within President Biden’s base don’t approve of his handling of this issue. Nearly half of Democratic women voters overall and, within Democratic voters, most younger women (72%), Black women (55%), Hispanic women (57%), and lower-income women (55%) do not approve of how President Biden is handling inflation.

While not a top issue for women voters overall, there are signs that the war between Israel and Hamas may be a weakness for Biden among his base, particularly younger women. About half of Democratic women voters disapprove of President Biden’s handling of the U.S. involvement in the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, increasing to more than eight in ten (83%) younger women, ages 18 to 29 who identify as Democrats.

While President Biden has an overall advantage over former President Trump among younger women voters, a majority of younger Democratic women are unsatisfied with their options for president, and when asked why they were unsatisfied with Biden as the Democratic nominee, 16% offered responses related to the loss of life in the conflict and ongoing U.S. military aid to Israel. See the dashboard to learn what younger women voters say on this issue. Majorities of Democratic women voters approve of how President Biden is handling other key issues such as student loan repayments, health care affordability, abortion and reproductive health, and immigration.

Democratic Women Are Least Approving of Biden on His Handling of Inflation, U.S. Involvement in the War in Gaza

A large majority of Republican women approve of the way former President Trump’s handled various issues during his time as president. See the dashboard here for more information.

Abortion and Reproductive Health

Two years after the Supreme Court Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, the KFF Survey of Women Voters finds age, partisanship, and state dynamics all play a role in whether the issue of abortion is motivating voters in the upcoming election.

Pro-Choice, Younger Women Are More Likely than Counterparts to say Abortion Is the Most Important Issue Determining Their Vote

While not the top voting issue for any group of women voters, one in ten women voters say abortion is the most important issue determining their vote. This includes 12% of Black women voters, 11% of White women voters, 7% of Hispanic women voters. The issue also resonates more with younger women voters, with 13% of women voters of reproductive age (ages 18 to 49) saying abortion is their most important voting issue, increasing to one in five women voters ages 18 to 29.

In a reversal of the make-up of abortion voters in the past several presidential elections, Democrats are now more likely than Republicans to say abortion is the most important issue in their presidential voting decision (13% v. 7%). This is especially true of Democrats living in states with laws restricting abortion. Nearly one in six (15%) Democratic women voters living in states where abortion is banned or limited say abortion is their most important voting issue.3  Less than one in ten Republicans, regardless of where they live, say the same. Overall, three in four voters who say abortion is their top issue identify as pro-choice (compared to 67% of all women voters) and about half want abortion to be legal in all cases (compared to 36% of all women voters).

Many of these voters expect changes to federal laws on abortion after the election – especially if former President Trump is elected. More than half of abortion voters (58%) say if former President Trump is elected for a second term, it is “very likely” he will sign a federal law banning abortion in the U.S. after 15 weeks. A third (36%) of abortion voters say it is “very likely” that President Biden will sign a law granting a federal right to abortion until the point of fetal viability if he is elected.

Regardless of whether it is the most important issue in their presidential vote, most women voters say that the stakes of this election are high when it comes to future reproductive health access. Half of women (54%) say they think this year’s presidential election will have a “major impact” on access to abortion and reproductive health care in the U.S and four in ten (43%) say this year’s presidential election will have a “major impact” on abortion and reproductive health care in their own state.

Overall, half (52%) of women voters, including at least six in ten of those ages 18 to 29 (62%) and Democratic women (63%), and half of independent women voters (54%) say the presidential candidates haven’t spent enough time talking about abortion policy during this election. A smaller share (36%) of Republican women say the same – indicating an opportunity for President Biden in upcoming presidential debates. Vice President Harris has largely been front-and-center on this issue, a strategy that seems supported by most Democratic women with about eight in ten saying they trust her to speak about abortion policy, as do about nine in ten voters who say abortion is their most important voting issue.

More Than Half of Democratic Women Living in States Where Abortion May Be on the Ballot Say They Are More Motivated To Vote, and Say They Plan on Voting for President Biden

As of mid-June, there are 10 states where voters may be deciding on abortion access on Election Day. Democratic women voters living in states where abortion may be on the ballot are more likely than those in other states to say that this year’s presidential election will have a major impact on access to abortion and reproductive health care in their state. Additionally, more than half (53%) say they are “more motivated” to vote in this year’s presidential election while more than half (57%) of Democrats living in states where abortion is not on the ballot say they are just as motivated or less motivated.

Democratic Women Voters in States Where Abortion Is or May Be on the Ballot Are More Likely to Vote Than Democrats in States Without Abortion Ballot Measures

And eight in ten (83%) Democratic women living in states where abortion may be on the ballot say they are “absolutely certain” to vote this year – suggesting that abortion-related ballot measures may encourage some Democratic voters to turnout, as was the case in the 2022 midterm elections following the Dobbs decision.

A Majority of Women Across the U.S. Say This Year's Election Will Have an Impact on Abortion Access in Their State, Including Two-Thirds of Democratic Women in States Where Abortion Will or Could Be on the Ballot

In fact, Democratic women living in states where abortion may be on the ballot are more likely than Democratic women living in other states to say they plan on voting for President Biden (92% v. 82%). One in ten Democratic women living in states without abortion on the ballot say they either don’t plan on voting or plan on voting for a third-party candidate. While President Biden seems to have a voting advantage among this group, it is not just because they are more favorable towards him broadly. Democratic women voters living in states where abortion may be on the ballot are no more positive in their assessments of President Biden and are just as likely to say they are unsatisfied with their options for president.

Views on whether abortion should be legal are largely divided along party lines with large majorities of Democratic women (91%) and independent women (81%) saying abortion should be legal, compared to half of Republican women who say abortions should be either illegal in all or most cases. In addition, most Republican women voters support a national ban on abortions after 15 weeks, and most Democratic women support a law guaranteeing a national right to abortion. However, there is some agreement on access to abortion in some instances. For example, there is consistent support, across partisans, for laws protecting access to abortions for patients who are experiencing pregnancy-related emergencies and in the case of rape or incest.

Majorities of Women Voters Across Party Support Laws Protecting Access to Abortion in Cases of Emergency, and Federal Laws Protecting Access to Abortion in the Case of Rape or Incest in States with Abortion Bans

This is true even in states where abortion is currently banned or limited. At least three-fourths of women (79%) living in states where abortion is currently restricted say they support a federal law protecting access to abortion in cases of rape or incest, including 88% of Democratic women and 66% of Republican women living in these states. In addition, 90% of Democratic women and 76% of Republican women living in states where abortion is banned or limited want laws protecting access to abortions for patients who are experiencing pregnancy-related emergencies.

Key Takeaways From Michigan and Arizona

The KFF Survey of Women Voters also includes separate surveys of women voters in Arizona and Michigan, two states that President Biden won in 2020 with very close margins (less than 3 percentage points in Michigan and less than 1 percentage point in Arizona) and are seen as key battleground states in the 2024 election. Yet, no battleground state is alike, and the KFF Survey of Women Voters demonstrates that each of these states pose very distinct races for the presidential candidates as well as elections for the U.S. Senate.

Majority of Arizona Women Voters Say They Plan on Supporting the Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative, See It as a Motivating Force to Turnout

Abortion is weighing heavily on the minds of Arizona women voters. Voters in Arizona may be voting on the Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative this November, a proposed state constitutional amendment which would establish a fundamental right to abortion until fetal viability, typically around 23 to 25 weeks of pregnancy. Under current Arizona law, abortions are legal until 15 weeks, though abortion laws have been in flux since the state Supreme Court first ruled in April that an 1864 law criminalizing all abortions was enforceable. Since then, the state legislature repealed the law, but it may go into effect for some period of time before the November election.

Two-thirds (67%) of women voters in Arizona say they support the Arizona Right to Abortion Initiative which may appear on the ballot this fall. The ballot measure has strong support among independent women (68%) and Democratic women voters (91%), while most Republican women (61%) say they oppose the initiative.

Two-Thirds of Arizona Women Voters Support the Initiative to Enshrine a Right to Abortion Until Fetal Viability in the State, Which May Appear on the November Ballot

Overall, half of women voters in Arizona say they would be more motivated to vote if the abortion initiative made it on the ballot, including large groups of voters who support the ballot initiative such as Democratic women voters (60%), and women of reproductive age (58%), including three-fourths (74%) of the youngest women voters ages 18-29. This is especially important given that one in four women voters ages 18 to 29 in Arizona say they don’t plan on voting in the 2024 presidential election or plan on voting for a third-party candidate.

Majorities of Young Women in Arizona Would Be More Motivated To Vote This November if the State Ballot Measure Enshrining Abortion Rights Appears on the Ballot

Yet, a majority of women voters in Arizona, including those who say the ballot measure would motivate them to turn out, say there is a possibility they could vote for a candidate who doesn’t share their view on abortion. In fact, most say a candidate’s position on abortion is just one of many important factors in their vote choice including 54% of Democratic women, 66% of independent women, and 64% of Republican women. And abortion ranks alongside a series of other issues and behind inflation and immigration as top voting issues for the 2024 presidential race among women voters in Arizona. Check out the dashboard to see where abortion ranks as a voting issue among groups of Arizona women voters.

Many Michigan Women See Abortion as a Settled Issue in Their State

Abortion is no longer front of mind for Michigan women, who turned out in record numbers in the 2022 midterm elections to enshrine the right to an abortion into the state constitution. The majority of Michigan women voters, including 69% of Democratic women say the issue of whether abortion is legal is “decided” in their state.

A Majority of Michigan Women Voters Say the Legal Status of Abortion Is Decided in Their State, Two Years After the Passage of Prop 3 Ensuring a State Constitutional Right to Reproductive Freedom

Inflation is Top Issue for Michigan Women

For Michigan women, inflation ranks as the most important issue for both Black women and White women in the state. It ranks among the top issues across partisans. Check out the dashboard to see the top issues for Michigan women voters. And while Democratic women voters in Michigan largely approve of the way President Biden has handled abortion and reproductive health, they are much more critical of his handling of inflation and the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. In fact, a statewide campaign to protest President Biden providing military aid to Israel and to demand a permanent ceasefire in Gaza led to a historic number of “uncommitted” votes (13%) in the 2024 Democratic primary election in the state.

A Majority of Democratic Women Voters in Michigan Disapprove of Biden's Handling of U.S. Involvement in the War in Gaza

Black women are going to be a necessary component of Biden’s strategy if he plans on winning Michigan’s electoral votes. Currently, President Biden isn’t generating the same level of support among Black women in Michigan that he did in 2020 with about one in five Black women (18%) now saying they plan on voting for former President Trump. Black women in Michigan are about three times as likely as White women to say the political party of candidates makes the biggest difference in how they vote for president, indicating that despite lower support for President Biden, they may vote for him because he is the Democratic Party candidate.

Yet, the cost of household expenses is causing worries for a majority of Black women in Michigan with at least six in ten saying the worry about affording the cost of health care (64%), their rent or mortgage (69%), their monthly utilities (70%), and food and groceries (75%). While a slight majority of Black women voters in Michigan say the Democratic Party does a better job than the Republican Party of addressing the cost of household expenses, three in ten say neither party does a better job of this. In addition, four in ten Black Democratic women say they disapprove of President Biden’s handling of inflation, perhaps why some Black women voters in the state may no longer support the Democratic presidential candidate. Check out the dashboard to see more about the views of Black women in Michigan.

  1. Throughout this report, the national and Michigan samples of Republicans and Democrats include women who identify as independent but lean toward one party while independents are those who say they don’t lean towards one specific political party. Because of the large contingency of independent voters in Arizona, the Arizona data pertaining to Democrats and Republicans does not include those who lean toward either party. ↩︎
  2. About halfway through the field period, former President Trump was convicted of 34 felonies in New York City, though our analysis finds that Republican women voters maintain the same levels of enthusiasm, hopefulness, and satisfaction with the candidate options before and after the ruling. Democratic women voter attitudes are also unchanged. ↩︎
  3. Click here to see a map of states where abortion is banned, limited, or available. ↩︎
News Release

Democratic Women are More Motivated to Vote in States with Potential Abortion Ballot Initiatives than in Other States

Two Battleground State Polls: In Arizona, Two Thirds of Women Voters Favor Ballot Initiative to Protect Abortion Access; in Michigan, Women Voters Largely Say the Issue Was Settled By 2022 Initiative

Published: Jun 20, 2024

A new KFF poll of women voters reveals that the issue of abortion is boosting Democratic women’s eagerness to vote most in states with potential abortion-related ballot initiatives.

As of mid-June, there are 10 states where voters may be deciding on abortion access in November, including 4 states where abortion is already set to appear on the ballot. In these states, more than half (53%) of Democratic women voters say that they are more motivated to vote this year than in past elections, while in other states, more than half say they are just as motivated as in past elections or less motivated to vote this year (57%). 

In states with potential ballot initiatives, Republican and Democratic women voters are about equally likely to say they are certain to vote (82% and 83%, respectively). In all other states, however, Republican women voters are more likely than Democratic women voters to say that they’ll definitely vote in November (80% vs. 72%).

The greater motivation to vote among Democratic women voters in states that may have ballot initiatives occurs even though they are no more satisfied with President Biden’s job performance than Democratic women voters in states without similar initiatives – a sign that the ballot issues may be driving interest.

Another sign of the ballot initiatives’ potential impact shows up in women voters’ perceptions about the election’s impact on abortion access in their state. 

In states where abortion will or may be on the ballot, two thirds (67%) of Democratic women voters say the election will have a “major impact” on access to abortion in their state, more than double the share of Republican woman voters (30%) in these states.

In addition to the national sample of women voters, KFF conducted state polls of women voters in Arizona and Michigan, two battleground states, that highlight the way in which abortion-related ballot initiatives may affect turnout.

In Arizona, which is likely to have a constitutional amendment protecting abortion access on November’s ballot, two thirds of women voters say they support the ballot initiative, including strong support among independent (68%) and Democratic (91%) women voters. Most Republican women (61%) say they oppose the initiative.

About six in 10 (60%) Arizona Democratic women voters say specifically that if the initiative appears on the ballot in November, they will be more motivated to vote, compared to 52% of independent women voters and 37% of Republican women voters. In addition, three-quarters (74%) of all younger women voters in Arizona (under age 30) say having the initiative on the ballot would make them more motivated to vote. 

That contrasts with Michigan, which approved a constitutional amendment to protect abortion access two years ago. Now, most Michigan women voters (60%) – including most Democratic women voters (69%) – say that the issue of whether abortion is legal in their state has already been settled. This year Michigan women are largely focused on inflation, an issue in which President Biden struggles among his Democratic base. 

Extensive results from the polls can be explored using the project’s interactive dashboard. The dashboard includes findings on the top voting issues for key groups of women voters, views on reproductive health policies, and how various issues may be playing a role in voters’ decisions to turn out or stay home on Election Day for the national, Arizona and Michigan surveys. 

Other key findings include:

  • While inflation dominates as women voters’ top issue in the presidential race – four in ten (40%) say it is the most important to determining their vote – one in ten (10%) women voters identify abortion as their most important voting issue. This group strongly supports abortion access and skews more Democratic and younger than voters overall.
  • Two-thirds (67%) of women voters identify as pro-choice, and three in four (74%) say they want abortion to be legal in at least some cases, though partisanship plays a major role in determining support for specific policies. For example, while most (57%) Republican women voters support a national ban on abortions after 15 weeks, most Democratic (89%) and independent (74%) women voters support a law guaranteeing a national right to abortion.
  • Some policies are popular among women voters across partisan groups. For instance, there is consistent majority support among Democratic, independent, and Republican women voters for laws protecting access to abortion for patients experiencing pregnancy-related emergencies, and for a federal law protecting access to abortion in cases of rape or incest in all states.
  • While most women who voted in 2020 say they are going to pick the same candidate this year, about one in six women who voted for President Biden in 2020 say they will either not vote or will vote for a different candidate this year, including 7% who say they plan to vote for former President Trump. By contrast, just 1% of women voters who voted for Trump in 2020 say they plan on voting for President Biden in 2024.
  •  A path to victory for President Biden would need to include strong majority support from Black women voters, a group that he won overwhelmingly in 2020. At this time, the national poll shows that a majority of Black women voters say they plan on voting for President Biden (70%) in November, though one in six (17%) say they may either stay home on Election Day or vote for a third-party candidate. For half of Black women (53%), the most important issue determining their vote is inflation, and many (55%) disapprove of how Biden has handled the issue as president. 

The KFF Survey of Women Voters and companion surveys in Arizona and Michigan examine the attitudes, motivations, and voting intentions of women voters to provide insights how this diverse, dynamic, and influential voting group views the upcoming elections. Additional reports examining subgroups of women voters and key issues will be released in the weeks ahead.

Designed and analyzed by public opinion researchers at KFF, the KFF Survey of Women Voters was conducted May 23 – June 5, 2024, online and by telephone among a nationally representative sample of 3,102 U.S. women registered voters in English and Spanish. The project includes separate samples of 928 registered women voters in Arizona and 876 registered women voters in Michigan. The national sample as well as the samples in Arizona and Michigan were from L2, one of the major providers of voter list samples. The margins of sampling error including the design effect for the national sample of women voters, Arizona women voters, and Michigan women voters are plus or minus 3 percentage points, 5 percentage points, and 4 percentage points respectively. For results based on other subgroups, the margin of sampling error may be higher.

KFF Survey of Women Voters Dashboard

The KFF Survey of Women Voters and KFF Survey of Women Voters: Revisited examine differing motivations, attitudes, and experiences among women by race and ethnicity, age, and partisanship heading into the 2024 election at two points in time: before Harris was the Democratic nominee, and after Harris’s nomination.

The initial survey results presented below are from a multi-mode survey of women voters from state-level voter files, fielded May 23-Jun. 5, 2024, including 1,383 women voters nationally, 928 women voters in Arizona, and 876 Michigan women voters. The resurvey — fielded Sept. 12-Oct. 1, 2024 — includes 649 women voters across the U.S. who took part in the initial national survey, giving a unique perspective on how this election has shifted over the past three months.

Published: 10/11/2024

Key Findings

Introduction

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In the three months since the initial KFF Survey of Women Voters, several major unexpected political events have taken place, impacting voters’ motivations and voting decisions for Election Day. This includes President Biden’s announcement that he would no longer seek reelection, with Vice President Harris quickly garnering the Democratic nomination as his replacement. To better understand how this and other events have impacted campaign dynamics and how voters feel leading into the November election, KFF resurveyed women voters and finds a very different female electorate one month before Election Day.

Top Issues

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Inflation, including the rising cost of household expenses, continues to be the most important issue for women voters overall, with over a third (36%) citing it as the “most important” issue in their vote for president. This is followed by threats to democracy (24%) and immigration and border security (13%). A slightly larger share of women voters now say abortion is the most important issue to them (13%) than earlier this summer (10%), perhaps a reflection of the increased emphasis placed on reproductive rights by the Harris-Walz ticket.

With Harris as the Democratic nominee heading into the election, about one in five (18%) Democratic women voters, rising to one in four (26%) Democratic women voters of reproductive age, say abortion is the most important issue to them. Even still, inflation remains the most important issue for Democratic and Republican women voters alike, unchanged from earlier in this campaign season.

Abortion is now the single most important issue to women under age 30, with about four in ten (39%) naming it as their top issue, followed by inflation (28%). This is a dramatic shift from earlier this summer, when half (48%) of women under age 30 cited inflation, and one in five (20%) cited abortion as their top issue. About one in ten women ages 30-54 (12%) or ages 55 and older (7%) say that abortion is their top issue, unchanged from earlier this summer.

Most Important Issues for Women Voters Heading Into the 2024 Presidential Election

Mood of the Election

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In early summer 2024, the initial KFF Survey of Women Voters reported that women voters were not largely enthusiastic about the upcoming 2024 presidential election. Resurveyed three months later, women voters are not only more satisfied about their options for president, but two-thirds (64%) say they are more motivated to vote in this election compared to previous presidential elections. And while many still feel “anxious” and “frustrated,” a majority now say they are “hopeful” and half say they are “enthusiastic” – marking a massive shift in how women voters see the 2024 election.

Democratic Women Voters Report Feeling More "Hopeful," A Majority Across Party Are Still Anxious, Frustrated
Most Women Voters Are Now Satisfied With Presidential Choices for 2024 Election, Though Republican Women Voters' Satisfaction Has Not Changed Since June
Majorities of Women Voters Across Race and Age Are Now More Motivated to Vote, Including Seven in Ten Democratic Women

For many, the increase in motivation isn’t just because it is closer to Election Day; half of voters (51%) say Vice President Harris becoming the Democratic nominee for president has made them “more motivated” to vote in the upcoming election. The share of voters who say Harris’ candidacy has made them more motivated increases to nearly six in ten Black women voters and Democratic women voters. The share of women voters who say they are more motivated this election cycle because of Harris’ candidacy also includes 55% of women voters who say abortion is the most important issue in determining their vote choice.

At Least Half of Democratic Women and Women Across Race Say Harris' Candidacy Has Made Them More Motivated to Vote

When asked explicitly why they are more motivated now that President Biden has decided not to run for reelection and VP Harris is the nominee, Democratic women offer responses saying she is a better candidate or that she has a better chance of beating former President Trump, and Republican women are more motivated because they see her as a greater threat.

In Their Own Words

“Why are you now more motivated to vote in the upcoming election now that Vice President Harris is the Democratic nominee?”

Among Democratic women voters: “She seems like a competent candidate closer to my age group and will understand issues that affect my generation more than Biden.” – Hispanic Democratic woman from California, age 37“She is younger, female and a person of color. I was concerned that President Biden could not win reelection. I now think we have a chance.” – White Democratic woman from Michigan, age 50“I think she is educated I think she is on top of it smart and intelligent and knows some of the ropes. If we need a change we might as well start with her.” – Black Democratic woman from Oklahoma, age 70

Among Republican women voters: “She hasn’t done anything to help the American people in four years, why would we want her to be commander in chief!” – White Republican woman from Ohio, age 75 “So President Trump will be reelected.” – Multi-racial Republican woman from Illinois, age 43 “She hasn’t done anything to help the American people in four years, why would we want her to be commander in chief!” – White Republican woman from Ohio, age 75 “Hoping she doesn’t become the first female president.” – White Republican woman from Texas, age 38“Because Kamala Harris is a threat to our country.” – White Republican woman from Nebraska, age 77

Economy and Inflation as an Election Issue

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With inflation and the rising cost of household expenses top of mind, Vice President Harris holds the edge among women voters when it comes to handling the rising cost of household expenses, with about half (46%) trusting her over former President Trump (39%). One in six women voters say they trust “neither” candidate to address costs. Harris’ overall advantage on this issue is especially notable because back in June, voters were split evenly on which party they trusted more to deal with this issue, giving neither party the advantage.

Also in June, the Democratic Party fared better than the Republican Party among Black and Hispanic women, though to a lesser extent. At the time, four in ten Black (41%) and Hispanic (43%) women voters said they trusted neither political party to best address costs.

VP Harris Holds Edge Over Former President Trump Among Women Voters To Address Cost of Household Expenses

Harris also has a strong advantage as the candidate women voters trust to do a better job addressing health care costs, with half saying they trust her and one in three (34%) saying they trust Trump.

Among Black women, Harris holds the strongest advantage, with three in four saying they trust the VP more on this issue, while just 5% say they trust Trump more. Hispanic women trust Harris more, at a 2 to 1 ratio (55% for Harris vs. 27% for Trump). White women are split evenly between the two candidates on who they would trust to lower the cost of health care for people like them (43% trust Harris vs. 42% trust Trump). Again, partisans are most likely to trust their party’s candidate on this issue, though nearly one in five Republican women (18%) and one in ten Democratic women say they trust neither candidate.

Women Voters Trust VP Harris Over Former President Trump To Address Health Care Costs

Abortion as an Election Issue

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Women voters are more likely to say that this election will have a “major” impact on abortion access than they were June, when President Biden was still the Democratic nominee. Now, two-thirds (65%) of women voters—including large majorities across race, ethnicity, and age—think this election will have a “major” impact, up from just over half (54%) in June. . Even greater majorities of Democratic women of reproductive age now compared to June say this election will  majorly impact abortion access, though Republican women overall continue to see the stakes as relatively low.

A Majority of Women Voters Across Age, Race, and Ethnicity Say This Election Will Majorly Impact Abortion Access, Four in Ten Republican Women Voters Agree

Majorities across partisans as well as women of reproductive age say they think it is likely that former President Trump will sign a federal law banning abortions after 15 weeks in the U.S., if such a law is passed by Congress. Trump has repeatedly said that he will not sign a federal abortion ban. A federal ban on abortion is unpopular among women voters, with two-thirds overall saying they would oppose a nationwide ban on abortion at 15 weeks of pregnancy.

In contrast, most women across party lines, including about nine in ten (94%) Democratic women and three in four Republican women, say VP Harris is likely to sign a law restoring Roe v. Wade, protecting nationwide access to abortion, if she is elected and if such a law is passed by Congress. Seven in ten women voters support a nationwide right to abortion, including majorities of Democratic and independent women voters.

Notably, these women voters were less certain of President Biden’s intentions for abortion policy in his second term when he was the Democratic nominee; in June, about seven in ten (72%) women voters said it was likely Biden would sign a law guaranteeing a federal right to abortion until fetal viability, including about one-third (36%) who said this was “very likely.” At the time, Republican women were more likely to say this was “very likely” than Democratic women (46% vs. 32%), suggesting that the messaging from the Harris campaign has been clearer to Democratic voters.

Most Women Voters Think Harris Would Sign a Law Protecting Nationwide Abortion Access, if Congress Passed Such a Law
Most Women Think Trump Would Sign a Federal Law Banning Abortion if Congress Passed Such a Law

Nearly twice the share of women voters say they trust Vice President Harris to do a better job than former President Trump deciding policy related to abortion access in the U.S. (58% v. 29%), birth control access (60% vs. 25%) and IVF (55% vs. 29%).

Harris fares better on each of these issues than Biden did in June among women voters overall. While President Biden had the edge over Trump on each of these issues, a substantial share of women voters said they trusted “neither” candidate.

Nine in Ten Democratic Women Voters Trust Harris Over Trump on Reproductive Health Access; A Smaller Majority of Republicans Trust Trump

Topline, Methodology, and Report

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Download: Topline & MethodologyReport: Women Voters Revisited: Inflation, Abortion, and Increased Motivation in the 2024 Election Countdown

The International Health Regulations and the U.S.: Implications of an Amended Agreement

Published: Jun 18, 2024

This brief was updated on June 18 to reflect developments at the 2024 World Health Assembly.

In 2022, due to challenges and gaps exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic, member states of the World Health Organization (WHO) agreed to a process to review and potentially revise an existing international legal agreement known as the International Health Regulations (IHR). This agreement outlines rights and responsibilities of WHO and governments, including the U.S., in handling international public health events and global health emergencies such as pandemics. The IHR are separate from, though somewhat overlapping with, the potential “pandemic agreement” that has also been negotiated in parallel by WHO member states. The IHR negotiation process reached its conclusion at this year’s World Health Assembly (WHA) meeting, with member states formally approving a number of revisions to the IHR on June 1, 2024 (at the same time, member states did not reach consensus on a pandemic agreement text and those negotiations will continue into 2025).

The U.S. government, already a party to the IHR, was actively engaged in the negotiations since they began, with Biden Administration officials highlighting a number of U.S. priorities, many of which are in the final revised document. At the same time, Republican lawmakers have criticized the IHR, calling for comprehensive WHO reform before having the U.S. support any IHR amendments. More generally, the outcome of U.S. elections in November stands to significantly affect U.S. engagement with the WHO; if President Trump is elected, he is expected to initiate a process to end U.S. membership in the WHO, as he did when he was President, and as recommended by Project 2025, widely seen as a blueprint for another Trump administration.

Here we review what the IHR agreement is, the revisions that have been approved, and the role of and implications for the United States.

What are the International Health Regulations (IHR)?

The IHR are an international legal agreement adopted by all 194 member states1  of the WHO, authorized under Article 21 of the WHO Constitution, which allows the adoption of regulations concerning “sanitary and quarantine requirements and other procedures designed to prevent the international spread of disease.”  The agreement at WHO dates back to 1951 (when they were called the International Sanitary Regulations) and has been revised multiple times since then, including adoption of the IHR name as part of the revision in 1969. Before this year, the most recent version was approved in 2005, in the wake of the original SARS epidemic.

The agreement is legally binding for member states of the WHO, meaning parties have agreed to be subject to the implementation and other requirements in the IHR text (see below for further information on these requirements). However, there is no mechanism to ensure or enforce compliance by member states and WHO does not have a role in, or any means to, enforce their implementation in countries.

What are some key elements of the IHR?

The IHR set out definitions, principles, rules, and obligations for countries and the WHO in preparing for and responding to international public health emergencies. For example, through the IHR member states have agreed to:

  • report all potential international health threats (according to an agreed-upon rubric in Annex 2 of the IHR) to WHO within 24 hours of their detection whether they occur naturally, accidentally, or intentionally,
  • develop national “core capacities” to detect and respond to health threats, including in the areas of laboratories, surveillance, human resources, and national policy and legislation,
  • designate a National IHR Focal Point available for 24/7 communications with WHO, and
  • collaborate with and assist each other in meeting core capacity and other obligations, including through technical and financial assistance (especially in support of developing countries).

WHO roles and responsibilities under the IHR include:

  • collecting and assessing information about potential public health emergencies of international concern (PHEICs) from member states and other sources,
  • coordinating with and assisting, when applicable, member states to investigate and respond to potential PHEICs,
  • following a process to officially declare a PHEIC, including having an Emergency Committee of external experts provide input and recommendations to the WHO Director-General,
  • developing and regularly reviewing recommended health measures for countries to implement during PHEICs with input from an Emergency Committee, and
  • providing guidance and assistance to countries affected or threatened by a PHEIC as requested.

What have been U.S. obligations under the prior version of the IHR?

The U.S. has been a supporter of and state party to the IHR since their inception. In 1996, President Clinton issued a Presidential Decision Directive calling for the U.S. to support the process to amend the IHR. In 2005, countries agreed to a number of revisions, and that version of the IHR went into effect for the U.S. in July 2007. The IHR (2005) was adopted as a sole executive agreement (which means it did not require review and consent from the Senate). At the time, the Bush administration did submit a formal reservation and three understandings to the agreement, citing concerns for implementation in the U.S. related to federalism and national security, among others.

As a state party to the IHR, the U.S. has already been obligated to meet certain requirements. One is to designate a National IHR Focal Point to serve as the main point of contact for communications with WHO. The U.S. National IHR Focal Point includes the HHS Secretary’s Operation Center (SOC), Office of Global Affairs (OGA), and Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR). The OGA is responsible for event assessments, managing IHR National Focal Point policies and procedures, and IHR monitoring and evaluation, the SOC monitors IHR communications 24/7, and the ASPR is the authorizing official for formal communications and notifications to the WHO.

In addition, the U.S. is obligated to develop and maintain capacities related to detecting and responding to public health emergencies. These capacities include surveillance, laboratory systems, human resources, financing, among others. Each year, state parties, including the U.S., are expected to submit a self-assessment report (known as the IHR States Parties Self-Assessment Report, or SPAR) on their progress in reaching and maintaining these capacities. While SPAR is the only mandatory reporting requirement, there are numerous other resources available to state parties to assess their implementation of the IHR, including the Joint External Evaluation (JEE). The JEE involves a joint evaluation of public health emergency response capabilities between the state party’s own experts and an external team. Though voluntary, the U.S. completed a JEE in 2016, and is planning to conduct a new JEE by the end of 2024. The U.S. has also supported other state parties in developing national plans for health security following a JEE.

What changes are included in the newly revised IHR?

Following the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO member states and other key global health stakeholders acknowledged gaps and areas that could be improved in the existing IHR, and recommended strengthening the agreement to improve global health emergency preparedness and response for future outbreaks and pandemics.

Potential revisions to the agreement have been negotiated by member states via the member state-led Working Group on the International Health Regulations (WGIHR), which has convened eight formal sessions since November 2022. The most recent session occurred from April 22 to April 26; a draft of the proposed text changes was provided to member states by WGIHR on April 17, 2024, and final wording changes continued to be negotiated over the next six weeks. Member states were able to reach consensus on the proposed text, and on June 1, 2024, formally approved revisions to the agreement.

Some of the key revisions and additions in the updated IHR (2024) agreement are presented in Table 1.

Key Revisions to the International Health Regulations (IHR), by Category

The IHR and pandemic agreement negotiation processes have happened in parallel, both with facilitation from the WHO. Both instruments are focused on the same basic issues: improving global capacity and coordination to address the threat of health emergencies such as outbreaks and pandemics. They have similar statements of purpose: the IHR’s purpose as stated in the current (2005) version is to “to prevent, protect against, control and provide a public health response to the international spread of disease” (Article 2), while the language in the latest draft (from April 22) of the pandemic agreement defines its purpose as “to prevent, prepare for and respond to pandemics” (Article 2). Among other areas of overlap, both instruments discuss obligations for member states to commit to capacity-building and mobilizing financing, particularly for developing countries.

However, there are also differences. Elements unique to the IHR that the pandemic agreement does not address include:

  • responsibilities and guidance for member states for reporting potential PHEICs, and the rules by which health emergencies are declared by WHO,
  • rules on points of communication between states and WHO, and
  • rules regarding points of entry and conveyances in the context of health emergencies.
  • Elements unique to the draft pandemic agreement that the IHR do not address include:
  • a proposed pathogen and benefits sharing (PABS) system,
  • the establishment of a “coordinating” financial mechanism for pandemic prevention and response, and
  • explicit inclusion of a “One Health” approach to pandemics (that addresses human, animal, and ecosystem considerations).

Further, the legal status of the two instruments could differ. While the IHR are considered a “regulation” that is authorized under Article 21 the WHO Constitution, the pandemic agreement is being positioned legally as a “treaty” authorized under Article 19. Approval of the pandemic agreement as a “treaty,” according to its advocates, would allow for it to be more ambitious and have a broader scope compared to the IHR, and potentially greater influence on the actions of member states.

How has the U.S. government been involved in IHR negotiations?

The U.S., under the Biden administration, was actively engaged in the process to amend the IHR. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of Global Affairs (OGA) led the U.S. delegation in the negotiations. Additionally, the U.S. served as one of the vice-chairs for the WGIHR meetings. At the start of the negotiation process, the U.S. submitted a number of proposed amendments along with many other countries, and has identified the top U.S. priorities:

  • “clarify early-warning triggers” for health emergencies, including allowing for a tiered warning system instead of a simple binary PHEIC or no PHEIC decision,”
  • “ensure rapid information sharing,”
  • “improve WHO’s ability to use publicly available information to assess global health threats,” and
  • “create a mechanism to improve implementation and compliance with the IHR.”

These priorities are reflected in the revisions in the revised IHR. For example, the Director-General of WHO can now declare a “pandemic emergency”, which is considered to be a higher level of emergency compared to other PHEICs. The revisions also include a section creating a new States Parties Committee and have a new requirement that member states designate a National IHR Authority to help support implementation.

How might U.S. obligations change and what concerns have been raised?

Under the revisions in the revised IHR, there would be little expected change in terms of U.S. obligations, save for designating a National IHR Authority (likely to be at HHS where the current National IHR Focal Point is located) and providing the required implementation updates to WHO. In the event of a future PHEIC, U.S. obligations under the revised IHR would include supporting international efforts by providing information regarding U.S.-based health products and R&D, engaging with “relevant stakeholders” to contribute towards equitable global access to health products, and voluntarily assisting in the mobilization of financial resources for responses to health emergencies in developing countries.

Some U.S. policymakers, and conservative policy initiatives such as Project 2025 initiative, raised concerns about the IHR negotiations and what a new agreement could mean for the U.S. Below are the main issues that have been raised, and available evidence regarding these concerns:

  • Concerns about how the IHR might impact U.S. sovereignty.  Concerns have been raised about how the revisions to the IHR might impact U.S. sovereignty, such as requiring the U.S. to take certain actions during public health emergencies and that WHO or other multilateral organizations would have greater authority to ensure implementation of the IHR. The U.S. delegation to the WGIHR stated that they would not accept an agreement that in any way undermined U.S. sovereignty. Additionally, the WHO does not have authority or enforcement mechanisms to dictate countries’ domestic policies. Further, in the draft text, the States Parties Committee serves in a “non-punitive” manner and provide recommendations for country compliance, rather than serve as an enforcement mechanism. Lastly, one of the principles of the IHR acknowledges countries’ “sovereign right to legislate and to implement legislation in pursuance of their health policies.” This principle has not been changed in the draft revision.
  • Concerns around the requirements to share health data and the potential impact on individuals’ privacy. Some raised concerns that a revised IHR could require additional health data sharing and negatively impact individuals’ privacy. The 2005 version of the IHR provides safeguards for the processing of individuals’ personal data, including keeping data confidential and anonymous, and requiring states to only keep individuals’ personal data for as long as necessary. Additionally, travelers must explicitly consent to providing their individual health data if required by another state party for entry. These requirements are not changed in the updated IHR.
  • Concerns about transparency of the WGIHR process and worry that parties were not provided enough information about IHR amendments before governments voted on the revised version at the WHA. Concerns were raised that the WGIHR had not been transparent enough throughout the negotiating process, and that parties outside the negotiating rooms had not been able to see the package of amendments to be voted on with enough advance notice. While some WGIHR sessions were webcast and meeting materials made public, much of the negotiations did indeed take place in closed-door sessions among member states, and negotiating texts were released to the public infrequently, which made it a challenge for outside parties to track developments closely. Another concern raised is that according to the current IHR, member states were to have at least four months advance notice prior to voting on proposed amendments to the agreement. This requirement was met, however, because a full list of proposed amendments from member states was made available in 2022 and proposed revisions draw from this list; WGIHR negotiations focused on narrowing the set of amendments to be considered, and clarifying the exact language for inclusion in the revised agreement.

In addition to specific concerns raised about the IHR and the new revisions, some policymakers and stakeholders have called for broader reforms to the WHO following the COVID-19 pandemic. These calls for reform cite concerns related to WHO’s transparency and effectiveness, including WHO’s ability to promptly respond to conduct investigations and promptly respond to potential public health emergencies. Some policymakers have stated that the U.S. should focus on efforts to reform the WHO before adopting additional international agreements.

The outcome of the upcoming Presidential election will have significant implications for U.S. involvement with the WHO. If President Trump is re-elected, he may seek to initiate U.S. withdrawal from the WHO as he did in his last presidential term. If the U.S. were to withdraw from the WHO, this would have implications for the U.S.’s role in the governance of the WHO, as the U.S. currently serves as a member of the Executive Board. Additionally, a withdrawal may impact U.S. participation in the IHR.

What are the next steps for the IHR?

With countries approving a final set of IHR revisions on June 1, 2024, the updated text has now been formally adopted by WHO member states. The revisions do not take effect immediately, however, but will instead take effect according to an agreed upon timetable (expected to be two years after their recent approval).

The revision does not require further Congressional approval or ratification in the U.S. The U.S. can lodge reservations to the IHR revision (all member states have 18 months from time of approval to register reservations). The U.S. has frequently lodged reservations with international agreements and did so with the previous 2005 revision of the IHR.

  1. The WHO has 194 member states, which includes all UN member states except Liechtenstein, as well as the Cook Islands and Niue. The IHR has 196 “states parties” which include the 194 WHO member states plus “observers” Liechtenstein and the Holy See. In the brief we use the terms “member states” and “parties” interchangeably to refer to the 196 governments for which IHR obligations apply. However, as observers Liechtenstein and the Holy See do not have voting power at WHO. ↩︎

Five Things to Know About Medicare Site-Neutral Payment Reforms

Published: Jun 14, 2024

Amid rising concerns about health care spending and voters’ worries about health care affordability, there is growing, bipartisan interest in proposals to align Medicare payments for outpatient services across care settings, otherwise known as “site neutral” payments. The goal of this approach would be for Medicare to pay the same rate for the same service, whether it is provided in a hospital outpatient department (HOPD), ambulatory surgical center (ASC), or freestanding physician office, subject to patient safety and quality safeguards. Private payers could also achieve savings if they adopt similar payment policies. Policymakers have been focusing recently on site-neutral payment reform in response to concerns about health care costs and the rapid pace of consolidation, given that the differences in payment across settings for the same service create a financial incentive for hospitals to acquire physician practices.

Site-neutral payment reforms would lower costs by reducing the amount Medicare pays for certain services when conducted in more expensive settings and could also lower costs by reducing incentives for hospitals to buy up physician practices, a pattern which has also been associated with higher commercial prices. Through legislation and rulemaking, Medicare has moved incrementally forward by aligning payments for clinic visits provided at off-campus HOPDs and for all other services provided at off-campus HOPDs that started billing on or after November 2, 2015, with some exceptions. Some policymakers are pressing to broaden the reach of site-neutral payment reforms to include additional settings, such as on-campus HOPDs and off-campus HOPDS that were grandfathered and exempted from certain site-neutral payments under current law. In December 2023, for example, the House of Representatives passed the Lower Costs, More Transparency Act on a bipartisan basis, which would align Medicare payments for drug administration services in off-campus HOPDs, including those exempt under prior reforms.

Opponents, principally in the hospital industry, argue that site-neutral payment reforms would adversely affect patients’ access to services by reducing hospital revenues, raising particular concerns about access for rural and low-income populations. They also suggest that the higher payments for services in hospital outpatient settings are justified by the level of care patients need, the higher costs of providing care in hospitals (e.g., due to regulatory requirements), and the costs of maintaining emergency care and standby capacity.

This issue brief describes five things to know about Medicare site-neutral payment reforms for outpatient services. It does not discuss a related set of proposals to regulate outpatient facility fees charged by hospitals and other institutional providers in commercial markets, such as a bill introduced in the Senate. Those options are intended to achieve similar policy goals but are more complicated, in part, because prices in commercial markets are determined through negotiations between payers and providers rather than being set by the government.

1. Medicare often pays more for the same service when provided in a hospital outpatient department versus other settings

Traditional Medicare generally pays more for outpatient services when provided in HOPDs than in ASCs or freestanding physician offices—which is usually the least-expensive setting. For example, one report estimated that payments for initial preventive exams were 51 percent higher in 2023 when provided in an HOPD than in a freestanding physician office, based on national payment amounts. Another estimated that average reimbursement for drug administration services was 129 to 211 percent higher in HOPDs than in freestanding physician offices in 2021. (Both sets of number exclude HOPDs that are subject to existing site-neutral reforms).

Medicare generally pays the same amount for services provided by HOPDs whether the HOPD is on the main campus of the hospital—i.e., “on-campus”—or off-campus. Off-campus HOPDs often resemble physician offices and may have previously been freestanding physician offices that were acquired by a hospital.

Traditional Medicare Payment System for Outpatient Services by Care Setting*

Hospital outpatient department (HOPD). Under the standard reimbursement approach, Medicare makes one payment to the hospital under the outpatient prospective payment system (OPPS)—sometimes referred to as a “facility fee”—and a separate payment to clinicians using the physician fee schedule (PFS) rate for facility settings. Some hospitals are excluded from the OPPS, such as critical access hospitals (CAHs), which receive cost-based reimbursement.

Ambulatory surgical center (ASC). Medicare generally uses a similar approach to reimburse services provided in ambulatory surgical centers (ASC) as it does for services provided in HOPDs but with a facility fee that is lower than the OPPS rate.

Freestanding physician office. Medicare makes a single payment to the clinician using the physician fee schedule (PFS) rate for nonfacility settings.

*Traditional Medicare uses the same payment system across settings for outpatient therapy services, mammography tests, dialysis services, and clinical lab tests. Provider reimbursement under Medicare Advantage is negotiated between plans and providers, is not public, and may or may not differ from traditional Medicare rates.

Differences in Medicare payments across settings result in higher costs for Medicare and its beneficiaries. Differences in Medicare payments mean that, by definition, program spending is higher than it would have been if the program reimbursed for services based on the least-expensive setting. Higher Medicare spending leads to higher Part B deductibles and cost-sharing amounts in traditional Medicare. For example, MedPAC estimated that aligning Medicare payment rates for a set of outpatient service categories (described below) would have reduced total traditional Medicare Part B spending by $6.0 billion in 2021 and beneficiary cost sharing by $1.5 billion. Higher Part B spending would also contribute to higher premiums for beneficiaries, because Medicare premiums are based on total Part B spending.

Savings for beneficiaries attributable to site-neutral payment reforms would vary, in part, depending on the amount of outpatient services they use and where they receive their care. For instance, one recent study estimated that aligning reimbursement for drug administration services between off-campus HOPDs and freestanding physician services would have reduced cost sharing for traditional Medicare beneficiaries by about $1 on average in 2021 but $1,055 among beneficiaries with the greatest use of chemotherapy who receive care at off-campus HOPDs that are not subject to existing site-neutral reforms (in addition to reducing the standard Part B premium by about $1).

As with Medicare, prices paid by private plans for outpatient services can also vary across care settings. Research from the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association found that average prices paid for a large commercial population were 31% higher for clinic visits in 2022 when provided in an HOPD versus a freestanding physician office, 238% higher for chest x-rays, and 563% higher for prostate biopsies, among other differences. These differences could in part reflect Medicare’s reimbursement system to the extent that commercial payers are benchmarking to Medicare rates.

Higher commercial prices attributable to differences in payments by site of care lead to higher costs for employers, higher premiums and cost sharing for workers and other health plan enrollees, and potentially higher spending or lower revenues for the federal government. A CBO report discussing policies to reduce commercial prices stated that they would “would mainly affect the budget by lowering federal subsidies for health insurance.”

Higher Medicare payments for services provided in HOPDs than in freestanding physician offices create a financial incentive for hospitals to acquire physician practices, which could lead to higher costs. Both the CBO and MedPAC have observed that Medicare’s reimbursement system creates an incentive for hospitals to acquire physician practices. Doing so allows providers to bill Medicare at the higher rates for the same services when provided in an HOPD, leading to higher costs. Some studies provide evidence that differences in payments across settings have led to increases in consolidation of physician practices with hospitals and that consolidation has led to higher spending in Medicare and commercial markets, with unclear effects on quality.

2. While Congress enacted legislation in 2015 to align Medicare payments across settings in certain circumstances, there is interest in adopting additional site-neutral payment reforms

Proponents say that site-neutral payment reforms would reduce Medicare program and beneficiary spending, lead to spillover effects that reduce spending in commercial markets, and further decrease commercial prices by slowing the pace of consolidation. Through legislation and rulemaking, Medicare has aligned payments for clinic visits at off-campus HOPDs as well as for all other services at off-campus HOPDs that started billing on or after November 2, 2015, with some exceptions. More recently, policymakers have expressed some interest in applying these reforms to additional services and settings, based on Congressional hearings and legislation that passed the House of Representatives in 2023.

The Bipartisan Budget Act (BBA) of 2015 introduced site-neutral payment reforms for services provided at relatively new off-campus HOPDs. Under this change, Medicare began to pay for services in some HOPDs at a lower amount more closely aligned with what would be paid in a freestanding physician office. The BBA provisions applied to off-campus HOPDs that started to bill Medicare under the OPPS on or after the date that the law was enacted (November 2, 2015), while grandfathering off-campus HOPDs that existed and billed earlier. The BBA of 2015 and subsequent legislation (the 21st Century Cures Act of 2016) created additional exemptions for off-campus HOPDs, including for those that are dedicated emergency departments, are related to a dedicated cancer hospital, or were under construction when the BBA was enacted. Under current law, exempt off-campus HOPDs are permitted to bill under the OPPS for new services provided, for example, as a result of incorporating additional physician practices.

In 2015, the CBO estimated that the BBA site-neutral payment reforms would save about $9 billion over ten years. CMS implemented this reform by reducing facility fees for affected services to 50% of OPPS rates beginning in 2017 and to 40% beginning in 2018, with the intent of aligning payment in these settings with freestanding physician offices.

In practice, this reform has been relatively modest in scope. According to MedPAC, services provided in non-exempt off-campus HOPDs and paid at lower amounts account for less than one percent of all OPPS spending.

In 2019, CMS extended Medicare’s site-neutral payments to cover clinic visits at all off-campus HOPDs that submit claims to Medicare under the OPPS. This includes all off-campus HOPDs that were exempt under the BBA of 2015. CMS reduced the facility component of reimbursement for clinic visits to 40% of OPPS rates, which it intended to phase in over 2019 and 2020. Implementation was temporarily interrupted when the American Hospital Association (AHA) and others filed a lawsuit against the Department of Health and Human Services, arguing that CMS had exceeded its authority. However, a federal appeals court rejected the industry’s claim in 2020 and the Supreme Court declined to consider an appeal in 2021, which allowed CMS to fully implement the rule. In 2022, CMS announced that rural sole community hospitals would be exempted from this site-neutral payment reform beginning in 2023.

Two-thirds of HOPD clinic visits are provided in on-campus HOPDs and so are not subject to the lower rates.

Given the limited reach of current site-neutral payment policies, MedPAC and others have recommended that Congress implement additional site-neutral reforms for outpatient services. MedPAC’s recommendation is that Congress “more closely align payment rates across ambulatory settings for selected services that are safe and appropriate to provide in all settings and when doing so does not pose a risk to access,” with CMS choosing the services. MedPAC presented one approach that would align HOPD and ASC payment rates with freestanding physician offices for 57 service categories that are most commonly provided in that setting, which the Commission views as an indication that they can be safely provided there. This includes services such as clinic visits, drug administration, and certain imaging services. MedPAC’s approach would also align HOPD payment rates with ASCs for 9 service categories that are most commonly provided in that setting, such as certain types of colonoscopies. The approach would increase aligned payments when related to emergency visits or trauma care. Site-neutral payment reforms have also been endorsed by groups from across the political spectrum— including Families USA, Americans for Prosperity, the Bipartisan Policy Center, and former Secretaries of Health and Human Services (HHS) Kathleen Sebelius and Alex Azar—as well as by the Government Accountability Office and the HHS Office of Inspector General.

In December of 2023, the House of Representatives passed legislation to apply Medicare site-neutral payments to drugs administered in an outpatient setting. The House of Representatives passed the Lower Costs, More Transparency Act (320-71) in December 2023, which would align Medicare payments for drug administration services—such as for chemotherapy—in off-campus HOPDs with rates for freestanding physician offices. Policymakers have considered a variety of other proposals, including proposals to apply site-neutral reforms to cancer diagnosis and treatment services at off-campus HOPDs, all services provided at off-campus HOPDs, or services provided at all HOPDs (off-campus and on-campus) and ASCs when they are most commonly provided in less expensive settings, such as freestanding physician offices (in line with the MedPAC approach). Former President Trump’s 2021 budget proposal included relatively broad site-neutral payment reforms (as described below). President Biden did not include similar proposals in the Administration’s budgets for 2022 through 2025.

Despite bipartisan interest, and a House-passed bill, site-neutral payment reforms were considered but ultimately excluded from a government spending package that was enacted in March 2024. Proponents are pushing for these reforms to be included in a year-end spending package.

3. Site-neutral payment proposals vary in scope, with CBO estimates of savings ranging from less than $5 billion to more than $100 billion over ten years

Estimated savings from proposed site-neutral payment reforms vary widely (see Figure 1). For example, CBO estimated that the provision in the Lower Costs, More Transparency Act that would align payments for drug administration services in off-campus HOPDs would save $4 billion over ten years. In contrast, in their evaluation of former President Trump’s 2021 budget proposal, CBO estimated that a proposal to extend reforms to all services in off-campus HOPDs would have saved $39 billion over ten years. The Trump budget proposal to align payments for on-campus HOPDs for services commonly provided in non-hospital settings would have saved $102 billion over ten years. Differences in savings to the government would also correspond to varying savings for beneficiaries.

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Estimates of Site-Neutral Payment Reforms Have Ranged From Less Than $5 Billion to More Than $100 Billion Over Ten Years

Large differences in expected savings reflect the varying scope of site-neutral payment reforms:

  • Which sites of care are covered? Proposals vary based on whether they would apply to off-campus HOPDs alone or all HOPDs. Site-neutral payment reforms for a given set of services could lead to substantially larger savings if they were also applied to on-campus HOPDs. One study estimated that on-campus HOPDs accounted for 87 percent of Medicare’s spending on hospital outpatient services in 2022 and, as noted above, on-campus HOPDs account for two-thirds of clinic visits provided at HOPDs. Another study estimated that aligning payments for the services identified by MedPAC would save Medicare $18 billion over ten years if applied to off-campus HOPDs alone but $127 billion over ten years if on-campus HOPDs were also included.Nonetheless, most reforms have focused on off-campus HOPDs, which may be less controversial given that off-campus HOPDs often resemble physician offices (and may have been freestanding physician offices that were acquired by a hospital). While several options would align rates in HOPDs with freestanding physician offices, some would align rates in HOPDs with ASCs and in ASCs with freestanding physician offices for certain services, resulting in additional savings.
  • What services would be covered? Proposals vary in the services that would be covered, which in turn affects the estimated savings. For example, proposals relating to off-campus HOPDs vary in whether they would align payment for cancer diagnosis and treatment, drug administration (estimated by one group to save Medicare $5 billion over ten years), services most commonly provided in less expensive settings as identified by MedPAC (estimated to save $18 billion over ten years), or all services (estimated to save $28 billion over ten years). Recent proposals relating to on-campus HOPDs have focused on services commonly provided outside of hospitals. Proposals also vary in terms of whether they would carve out or augment payments for services related to emergency care or that are provided in dedicated emergency departments.
  • Which providers would be given special consideration or exempted? Proposals vary in whether they include provisions to limit or offset the impact on certain providers, such as by excluding rural hospitals, capping losses for hospitals that care for a relatively large number of low-income patients, or targeting new resources to safety-net or rural hospitals.
  • Are proposals designed to be budget neutral? Site-neutral payment reforms are often designed to reduce government spending but could be pursued in a budget neutral manner. For example, MedPAC noted that its recommendation to Congress would not have an immediate effect on total OPPS spending due to budget neutrality requirements under current law, which would result in offsetting increases in reimbursement for hospital outpatient services that are not affected by site-neutral reforms. However, policies that are implemented in a budget neutral fashion may nonetheless lower Medicare spending over time by reducing the incentive for hospitals to acquire physician practices.
  • Timing. Proposals vary in how quickly they would be implemented and whether they would be phased in over time.

Some site-neutral reform proposals would require that off-campus HOPDs provide a separate, unique identifier from the main campus when submitting claims, which is expected to produce modest savings. This provision would make it easier for private insurers to identify and prohibit facility fees and could improve the accuracy of Medicare payments to off-campus HOPDs. CBO estimated that one version of this proposal would reduce federal spending by about $2 billion over ten years, primarily through its effect on commercial markets.

4. Opponents say site-neutral reforms would adversely affect patient care

Critics of site-neutral payment reforms, primarily hospital industry representatives, have voiced concern about the likely impact on hospital revenues and patient care. Opponents warn that decreases in Medicare reimbursement attributable to site-neutral reforms could lead some hospitals to scale back or eliminate services that they offer in HOPDs or other departments. Just as reforms could lead to savings for the government and patients, they could also lead to decreases in revenues for hospitals. For example, MedPAC estimated that its approach—i.e., aligning payments for services provided in on- and off-campus HOPDs and ASCs that are mostly commonly provided in less-expensive settings—would reduce Medicare revenues among OPPS hospitals by about 3.8% if implemented without budget neutrality requirements. Critics say that the revenue losses would be especially challenging for hospitals in light of financial challenges facing the sector, including higher costs due to labor shortages. Hospital employment now exceeds pre-pandemic levels, and industry reports indicate that finances have been improving, though some hospitals continue to struggle.

Revenue losses would be larger for some hospitals than for others. For example, MedPAC estimated that its approach would lead to relatively large decreases in Medicare revenues for smaller and rural hospitals. Other research has found that off-campus HOPDs—the focus of some reforms—account for a smaller share of total hospital or facility outpatient revenues in rural versus urban areas. Relatedly, according to research supported by the AHA, Medicare beneficiaries treated in HOPDs are more likely than those treated in physician offices to be dual-eligible individuals.

The potential impact of site-neutral payment reforms on rural hospitals has been a sticking point for some Members of Congress amid broader concerns about the financial stability of these facilities. As described below, some have proposed options that are intended to soften the impact on hospital finances and mitigate access concerns. Previous site-neutral payment reforms and many proposals to expand upon these reforms do not apply to Critical Access Hospitals (CAHs)—which are typically in rural areas—because these facilities are reimbursed by Medicare under a separate payment system.

Critics of site-neutral payment reforms say that higher payment rates for outpatient hospital services are justified by higher overhead costs (including those due to stricter regulatory requirements for hospitals) and higher costs associated with maintaining certain essential services, including 24/7 emergency care and standby capacity for public health crises and other emergencies. Proponents counter that rates should not be based on hospital costs but on the costs of providing the service in the least-expensive setting that is safe and appropriate. Some have proposed to refine payments to provide a mechanism to pay for emergency care and standby services, rather than building in the cost of these services through higher reimbursement for outpatient services more generally.

Opponents of site-neutral payment reforms have also suggested that reimbursement should be higher for HOPDs because they care for patients with more complex care needs who are more costly to treat. For example, research supported by the AHA found that Medicare beneficiaries treated in HOPDs are more likely than those treated in physician offices to have a major complication and comorbidity or have had a recent emergency department visit or hospital stay. However, another analysis found that differences in patient severity across HOPDs and physician offices are small. MedPAC has also noted that the services they have focused on typically have low complexity—and may not necessarily cost more to provide for sicker patients—and that hospitals can often bill for additional services under the OPPS if patients need them.

In addition, physician groups and others suggest that Medicare reimbursement rates under the physician fee schedule—i.e., the basis for aligned payment rates—are inadequate. The preponderance of research finds that Medicare beneficiaries do not have problems accessing clinicians, although the AHA argues that hospital acquisitions of physician practices have helped preserve access. Some have raised the option of using savings from site-neutral reforms to increase payment rates for physicians, which could help to mitigate these concerns.

5. Site-neutral payment reforms could be designed to limit or offset the impact on certain providers, such as rural or safety-net hospitals

To address concerns about the effect of site-neutral payment reforms on hospital finances and the implications for access to care and quality, policymakers could include provisions that limit or offset the impact on vulnerable hospitals, such as rural or safety-net hospitals. Options include the following:

  • Use savings to fund targeted assistance to vulnerable hospitals. Examples of targeted assistance include increasing reimbursement for rural or safety-net hospitals for services, delaying scheduled cuts to Medicaid Disproportionate Share Hospital (DSH) payments, increasing and improving the targeting of Medicare uncompensated care and DSH payments, extending Medicare payment designations for Medicare Dependent Hospitals and Low-Volume Hospitals, expanding Medicare Critical Access Hospital (CAH) designations to additional facilities, and investing in the rural health care workforce.
  • Cap losses for vulnerable hospitals. An alternative approach would limit the reduction in Medicare revenues to a specified percent for any given hospital meeting certain criteria (e.g., that care for a relatively large share of low-income beneficiaries) on a temporary or permanent basis. One tradeoff of this approach is that it would retain some of the incentives under Medicare’s current reimbursement system to acquire physician practices, as the effect of the reform would be eliminated above the cap. One approach for addressing this would be to calculate what the offset would have been prior to implementation and then using that amount as the basis for future offsets (which would therefore not be affected by later acquisitions).
  • Exclude certain hospitals altogether. Previous site-neutral payment reforms and many proposals to expand upon these reforms do not apply to CAHs, which accounted for 61 percent of rural hospitals in 2021. Former President Trump’s 2021 budget proposal would have excluded rural hospitals from proposed site-neutral reforms for on-campus HOPDs, without defining how broadly this exemption would be applied. Excluding hospitals would reduce the savings, although extending the policy to on-campus HOPDs produces substantially larger savings than policies that are limited to off-campus HOPDs. One study estimated that off-campus HOPDs affiliated with rural facilities would account for about six percent of traditional Medicare program and beneficiary savings under the Lower Costs, More Transparency Act’s site-neutral payment reform. The tradeoff of excluding rural hospitals altogether is that it would necessarily eliminate the potential benefits of site-neutral payment reform for rural areas, such as lower spending for beneficiaries and reduced consolidation.
Key terms

Ambulatory surgical center (ASC). ASCs are distinct health care providers that mostly provide outpatient surgical procedures to patients who do not need to stay overnight.

Critical access hospital (CAH). More than 1,300 hospitals are designated as a CAH by Medicare on the basis of having 25 or fewer beds and meeting other requirements. Medicare reimburses CAHs based on costs, rather than under the inpatient or outpatient prospective payment systems. CAHs are typically in rural areas.

Facility fee. Fees charged by hospitals and other institutional providers that are meant to cover the operational costs of running the facility. These are distinct from professional fees for the care provided by physicians and other health care professionals.

Freestanding physician office. Freestanding physician offices operate independently from a hospital. Services in freestanding physician offices are reimbursed by Medicare using the physician fee schedule (PFS). When a hospital acquires a freestanding physician office, the same services can be billed under Medicare’s reimbursement system for care provided in hospital outpatient departments, which generally results in higher payments. In that scenario, Medicare makes a payment to the clinician under the PFS at a rate that is typically lower than for freestanding physician offices but also makes a separate payment to the hospital under the outpatient prospective payment system (OPPS).

Hospital outpatient department (HOPD). Hospital departments that provide outpatient services, such as clinic visits, injections, and outpatient surgeries. There has been a large increase in Medicare spending on HOPD services over time as care has shifted from inpatient to outpatient settings and as hospitals have acquired physician practices and directly employed more physicians.

Off-campus HOPD. HOPDs that are not part of the hospital campus (i.e., are not physically close to the main hospital buildings). Off-campus HOPDs often resemble physicians’ offices and may have previously been freestanding physician offices that were acquired by a hospital.

On-campus HOPD. HOPDs that are part of the hospital campus (i.e., are part of or physically close to the main hospital buildings).

Outpatient prospective payment system (OPPS). The payment system that Medicare generally uses to cover hospitals’ costs for HOPD services, such as for nursing services, medical supplies, equipment, and rooms. OPPS rates vary geographically and based on the complexity of the service, among other things. Medicare also provides a separate payment to clinicians under the PFS for services provided in an HOPD.

Physician fee schedule (PFS). Medicare’s payment system for physician and other health care professional services. This accounts for clinicians’ labor, practice expenses (such as for rent, equipment, and staff), and malpractice insurance. The PFS includes separate rates for facility and nonfacility settings. The PFS rate for services provided in HOPDs (the rate for facility settings) is typically smaller than for services provided in freestanding physician offices (the rate for nonfacility settings), which reflects the fact that HOPDs cover many expenses otherwise incurred by clinicians in freestanding offices and are reimbursed for these costs under the OPPS.

This work was supported in part by Arnold Ventures. KFF maintains full editorial control over all of its policy analysis, polling, and journalism activities.

Looking to the Future: Implications of the SCOTUS Ruling on Mifepristone

Published: Jun 13, 2024

SCOTUS has ruled on the Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. FDA, a case that had the potential to severely restrict access to mifepristone, one of the pills used in the medication abortion regimen across the nation. The verdict was unanimous. The defendants lacked standing to sue the FDA for injury.

So, what does this mean for access to medication abortion pills? The status quo is unchanged. The ruling preserves abortion access to mifepristone. Today, over 6 in 10 abortions are medication abortions, and according to data from #WeCount, a national study that is tracking use of abortion services after Dobbs, many of those pills are going to women who live in states where abortion is banned. One in five abortions are provided to pregnant people through telemedicine. This newer approach to distribution is a result of the changes in the FDA’s protocol regarding how mifepristone can be prescribed and dispensed and by whom. Telemedicine visits and mailing the pills are still approved, and advance practice clinicians and doctors can distribute if they are certified. Many states without abortion bans also restrict access to telemedicine by requiring in-person visits for abortions or mandating that all abortion patients receive an ultrasound.

In addition to the abortion issues, there was potential for this case to set a precedent for doctors to challenge FDA decisions and the Court to overrule an FDA action that was based on years of experience and research. In fact, the Court did not even get to this issue and decided that there was no evidence of harm to the plaintiffs and sent it back to the lower court. This lawsuit not only got the attention of those focused on abortion, but also the pharmaceutical industry, which was troubled about what this case could mean for the other drugs that have long been approved but could be caught in the crosshairs of today’s culture wars.

While this decision preserves the status quo, there will be other efforts to limit access to medication abortion, which has been a major avenue of abortion access for those who live in one of the 14 states where abortion is completely banned.

A few things to keep in mind:

  • While SCOTUS has said that these anti-abortion doctors and organizations lack standing, there are other cases that are still trying to ban or limit access to mifepristone, notably including anti-abortion state Attorneys’ General who have intervened in this case. It’s not clear how this action will shape the case when it goes back to the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals and then back to the originating federal court, presided over by anti-abortion conservative Judge Kacsmaryk in Amarillo, Texas.
  • A new Louisiana law that has classified mifepristone (and misoprostol) as Class IV controlled substances which will even further restrict access to these drugs. Louisiana already has a complete abortion ban. Look for other anti-abortion states to start copying this law.
  • On the abortion rights side, there is a pending case filed by the state AGs, led by Washington state. It’s the mirror image of the anti-abortion state claims. They are claiming that the FDA does not need to place any restrictions on how mifepristone can be dispensed, and that the medication should be available without the current restrictions. Some anti-abortion states sought to intervene in this case, but the district court denied their request. The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals heard their appeal of this motion in March and will likely rule soon.
  • Finally, potentially looming on the horizon is whether the Comstock Act , an 1873 anti-vice law that has not been enforced in many years, will be resurrected. Enforcing the Comstock Act has been raised as priority issue by a coalition of conservative anti-abortion groups seeking to advise Trump on priorities for his next administration should he win the election. Democrats are exploring options to repeal the law.

Access to mifepristone is a significant resource for abortion access and is going to be a central focus to efforts to both protect and limit abortion access.

While the Court has ruled, the case for mifepristone access is not closed.

VOLUME 1

Raw Milk Myths, Vaccine Falsehoods, and Reproductive Health Narratives

This is Irving Washington and Hagere Yilma. We direct KFF’s Health Misinformation and Trust Initiative and on behalf of all of our colleagues across KFF who work on misinformation and trust we are pleased to bring you this edition of our bi-weekly Monitor. 

Welcome to the first edition of the Health Misinformation Monitor, a key component of KFF’s Misinformation and Trust Initiative which is aimed at tracking health misinformation in the U.S, analyzing its impact on the American people, and mobilizing media to address the problem. The Monitor will provide everyone working on health misinformation and trust with a short report, every two weeks, summarizing the latest developments and research on health misinformation. Of course it’s free of charge, as is all KFF information. We will track health misinformation policy, news, online narratives, and public opinion on health misinformation and trust in the United States. Look for our report on the second and fourth Thursdays of each month.


Summary

This first edition of the Health Misinformation Monitor explores misinformation about raw milk amid bird flu outbreaks on dairy farms, false vaccine narratives that continue to spread, and legal challenges against abortion pill reversal claims. Additionally, a growing number of states have required public schools to show fetal development videos that some have called biased and inaccurate. This Monitor report also provides a snapshot of new KFF misinformation polling on TikTok and discusses the early challenges faced by The World Health Organization’s new AI tool SARAH in providing accurate answers to health questions.


Recent Developments

Social Media Influencers Promoted Raw Milk as Bird Flu is Found on Dairy Farms

Social media influencers have been promoting raw milk despite FDA warnings about its health risks as bird flu has appeared in dairy cows. One report from CBS News shows how these influencers and celebrities make claims that raw milk has more health benefits than pasteurized milk, which has been refuted by public health officials. In response to growing demand for raw milk and some outbreaks of H5N1 bird flu on dairy farms, the FDA and CDC have strengthened their warnings that raw milk can harbor dangerous germs and urging people to consume only pasteurized products

Addressing Vaccine Misinformation Amid Measles and Continuing COVID-19 Challenges

Measles cases in the United States have significantly increased in 2024, with unvaccinated individuals accounting for 80% of this year’s cases. KFF Health News reported on how misinformation from various public figures has influenced parents to avoid vaccinating their children. Vaccine misinformation has downplayed the severity of diseases and questioned the necessity and safety of vaccines, despite extensive scientific evidence establishing their efficacy and safety. Skeptics’ claims, including those that vaccines are unnecessary or harmful, contradict well-documented research and have led to dangerous public health consequences.

New COVID-19 variants, known as FLiRT, part of the omicron family, have emerged as the dominant strain in the U.S. In one recent example of an effort to address vaccine misinformation, the Kentucky Lantern consulted with the CDC, the FDA, and other sources to debunk several false or misleading claims made by some lawmakers that the vaccine leads to serious health issues like sudden cardiac events and miscarriages. Their story shared information from the CDC and FDA that emphasized that vaccines are safe and effective.

Legal Challenges Against Abortion Pill Reversal Claims

According to CBS, Heartbeat International, along with other anti-abortion groups, is being sued by New York and California attorneys general for alleged false advertising and fraud by promoting “abortion pill reversal” as a safe and effective method to halt medical abortions. Heartbeat International is countersuing, citing First Amendment rights and asserting the safety and efficacy of abortion pill reversal.


Emerging Misinformation Narratives

Potentially Misleading Fetal Development Video, Baby Olivia, Mandated in Several Public-School Curricula

A growing number of states have passed or are considering bills that require public schools to show “Baby Olivia,” a video on fetal development made by the anti-abortion group Live Action. According to The Guardian, at least 10 states have introduced bills this year requiring “Baby Olivia”, or a similar video, following North Dakota’s lead last year. Live Action claims that the video is scientifically credible, but, according to the Associated Press, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists warned in an email that the video spreads misinformation and manipulates viewers’ emotions rather than providing evidence-based, scientific information. The Guardian also noted that the medical experts mentioned by Live Action are part of alleged anti-abortion or anti-LGBTQ+ groups.

The “Baby Olivia” video appeared online in August 2021 when the group Live Action published a three-minute video about fetal development titled, “A Never Before Seen Look at Human Life in the Womb – Baby Olivia”, on its website. Live Action then shared the video on Facebook. Nearly all of the 298 comments on the initial post were in support of the video, and some promoted false claims about abortion such as, “Mom’s don’t realize their babies are butchered and sold for body parts”

Conversations about the Baby Olivia video have been driven by the group’s own social media posts—primarily on Facebook. Since 2021, Live Action has reshared the video on Facebook during upticks in local and national conversation about abortion—in November 2021, after Tennessee upheld its 48-hour abortion waiting period (149 comments); in June 2022, when Roe v. Wade was overturned (4,700 comments); in November 2022, just after midterm elections (444 comments); and in March 2024, when Kentucky, West Virginia, and Iowa advanced bills that would require the Baby Olivia video to be shown in schools (87 comments).

The majority of comments on Live Action’s Facebook posts about the Baby Olivia video have expressed support for the video, but comments expressing concerns about the video spiked each time bills requiring the video to be shown in schools were introduced or passed. Still, the overall number of posts about the video was small in the context of the number of daily Facebook posts and overall media use in the U.S., reaching a high of 4,700. Additional social media engagement and general news media coverage may have created a larger echo chamber for the video.

Social media users commenting on Live Action’s Facebook posts debated whether or not an embryo is an “unborn baby” and whether or not abortion is murder. Some social media users applauded the video for what they believed to be its accuracy with comments like, “Biology at its finest” and “Development happens so quickly. It’s amazing how much is going on so early in development.” Others acknowledged the video’s false claims with comments like, “That is not the right timeline give me a break.” Some supporters of the video wrote that Baby Olivia should be shown to people who are seeking abortions and that the video should be “mandatory viewing” in schools. As more states consider legislation related to the Baby Olivia video, further spikes in engagement and conversation may occur. What appears interesting, and a subject for ongoing research, however, is that the overall “noise” surrounding the Baby Olivia video appears to be much greater than the actual volume of conversation about it on social media which has been modest.

Health Discussions to Watch

Abortion Pill Regulation: In May, Louisiana legislators passed, and the governor signed, a bill that categorizes abortion pills (both mifepristone and misoprostol) as controlled dangerous substances, initiating online conversation about abortion pills across multiple social media platforms. A KFF Fact Sheet explains that Mifepristone was approved by the FDA in 2000 and is already tightly regulated by the FDA and has not been classified by the FDA and Federal Drug Enforcement Agency as a controlled substance at risk for addition or abuse. Misoprostol is commonly used for other gynecologic and obstetric procedures. As of May 28, the bill was mentioned 7,800 times on X and in news articles with 38,800 engagements (e.g., likes, comments, shares). This story was also mentioned 256 times on Facebook, where it garnered 19,000 engagements. Most social media posts about the bill expressed criticism.

Gender-Affirming Health Care: A recent viral social media post from psychologist and author Jordan Peterson falsely claimed that gender-affirming health care causes children to die by suicide. As of May 28, there were 154 social media posts about Peterson’s claim across all platforms, and they garnered 10,800 total engagements. Some social media users questioned the safety and effectiveness of gender-affirming health care, while others pointed out that gender-affirming health care leads to better mental health outcomes.

Opioid Settlement Funds: On a recent episode of the late-night television show Last Week Tonight, host John Oliver said that opioid settlement funds should be used to support harm reduction programs, prompting online conversation about harm reduction across multiple social media platforms and in news articles. As of May 28, the YouTube video of this episode was viewed more than 2.3 million times and received 4,603 comments. There were 341 social media posts about Oliver’s segment on X, Facebook, and Instagram, attracting 3.9 million total engagements. Some social media users expressed support for harm reduction, while others claimed, “There is no opioid crisis.”


Polling Spotlight

A new KFF Health Misinformation Tracking Poll, as part of our Misinformation and Trust Initiative, explores how often people encounter health information on TikTok, how much they trust it, and whether it impacts their behavior. Fewer than half of TikTok users trust health information on the app, while four in ten say they trust such information “a great deal” (9%) or “somewhat” (32%; Figure 1). Younger users, particularly those aged 18-29, show higher trust levels, with 53% saying they trust health information at least somewhat, including 17% who trust it a great deal. Black and Hispanic TikTok users are somewhat more likely than White adults who use TikTok to say they trust health information on the app. Among daily TikTok users, who are predominantly younger adults, 58% trust health information on the platform at least somewhat.

About Four in Ten TikTok Users Say They Trust Health Information They See on the App, Including Larger Shares of Younger Users, Black or Hispanic Users, and Daily Users

The poll also investigated how often people saw health information about various topics on the platform and found that a majority of users report seeing health-related content on the app, most commonly information about mental health (66%) and weight loss (66%). About a third (36%) of TikTok users report seeing information about abortion on the platform. Younger users, particularly those aged 18 to 29, are more likely to encounter this content, with 59% having seen abortion-related information.

Approximately 42% of TikTok users say they have seen information or advice about vaccines on the platform. Most users report that the content they’ve encountered hasn’t affected their confidence in vaccine safety and effectiveness, with about 15% saying it made them less confident and 12% saying it made them more confident (Figure 2). Among parents who use TikTok, 17% report feeling less confident in vaccines due to content on the app, compared to similar shares (11%) who feel more confident. Previous KFF polling has found that about a quarter of parents believe false information about measles vaccines. Notably, Republican users on TikTok are more likely to say content on the app has decreased their confidence in vaccines, with 24% of Republicans saying TikTok content has led them to feel less confident compared to 7% say it has made them feel more confident.

Republican TikTok Users Are More Likely to Say Content They’ve Seen on the App Has Made Them Less Confident in Vaccines

Research Updates

Study Explores Challenges in Reducing Resistance to Vaccine Messaging

In this Monitor, we report on a study published in the journal Health Communication that explored ways to reduce “reactance”, or feeling like your personal freedom is threatened, when given vaccine-related communication. The researchers tested if the practice of “inoculation” or warning people about feeling reactance before a message promoting a fake vaccine would reduce reactance. They found that the warning didn’t reduce resistance or change minds about vaccines; sometimes it even caused more resistance in some of the participants. The study ultimately found that people who are naturally more resistant (high-reactant) were less willing to get vaccinated, especially when the message threatened their freedom a lot. But those less resistant (low-reactant) were more open to vaccines, especially with a high-threat message.

Source: Karlsson, L. C., Mäki, K. O., Holford, D., Fasce, A., Schmid, P., Lewandowsky, S., & Soveri, A. (2024). Testing psychological inoculation to reduce reactance to vaccine-related communication. Health Communication, 1-9.

Perceptions of Fact-Checking Labels Vary by Political Affiliation

study published in the Harvard Misinformation Review looked at how people view fact-checking labels, like those you might see on social media posts. They found that labels from professional fact checkers were seen as the most effective, followed by labels from news media. Labels by algorithms and users were seen as less effective. Republicans tended to trust these labels less than Democrats did. People who trust news media and have positive views of social media tend to see these labels as more effective. Also, if people had seen these labels before, they were more likely to trust them, especially if they trusted news media or had positive views of social media.

Source: Jia, C. & Lee, T. (2024). Journalistic interventions matter: Understanding how Americans perceive fact-checking labels. Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) Misinformation Review. https://doi.org/10.37016/mr-2020-138


AI & Emerging Technology

Features and Challenges of WHO’s New AI Tool

While not directly spreading misinformation, the World Health Organization’s new AI tool, SARAH, has faced challenges providing accurate health information, highlighting the potential for AI-generated content to contribute to the spread of misinformation inadvertently. SARAH is designed to provide health information through a human-like avatar that operates 24/7 in multiple languages to educate users on various health topics. However, according to Bloomberg, SARAH has outdated medical data and occasionally provides wrong or made-up answers, due to its reliance on ChatGPT 3.5. (deleted because unclear what this means). Despite these limitations, SARAH is seen as a first step towards using AI to enhance public health education. WHO seeks input to improve SARAH’s accuracy and utility, especially in emergency health situations. WHO also emphasizes that AI chatbots like SARAH are not substitutes for professional medical advice.

About The Health Information and Trust Initiative: the Health Information and Trust Initiative is a KFF program aimed at tracking health misinformation in the U.S., analyzing its impact on the American people, and mobilizing media to address the problem. Our goal is to be of service to everyone working on health misinformation, strengthen efforts to counter misinformation, and build trust. 


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The Monitor is a report from KFF’s Health Information and Trust initiative that focuses on recent developments in health information. It’s free and published twice a month.

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Support for the Health Information and Trust initiative is provided by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF). The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of RWJF and KFF maintains full editorial control over all of its policy analysis, polling, and journalism activities. The Public Good Projects (PGP) provides media monitoring data KFF uses in producing the Monitor.


Poll Finding

KFF Health Misinformation Tracking Poll: Health and Election Issues on TikTok

Authors: Alex Montero, Grace Sparks, Marley Presiado, and Liz Hamel
Published: Jun 13, 2024

Findings

With the rise of social media use and growing concerns about health misinformation that accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been increased attention to the role that various social media platforms play in the dissemination of health information, both accurate and inaccurate. Previous KFF polling has found that while few adults say they put a lot of trust in health information they come across on social media, those who use social media more frequently for health advice are more likely to believe false statements about issue like COVID-19 vaccines, reproductive health, and gun safety. This new KFF Health Misinformation Tracking Poll focuses on health and election-related information on the popular social media app TikTok in light of recent developments related to the platform.

In late April, President Joe Biden signed into a law a bill that would ban TikTok in the U.S. if its Chinese-owned parent company does not sell the platform within a year. The bill passed both chambers of Congress with bipartisan support, with many lawmakers, including President Biden, largely citing national security risks. At the same time, some media reports have documented the spread of various different types of health misinformation on the app, including misinformation related to prescription birth control.

Key Findings

  • Most adults who use TikTok report seeing health-related content on the app, with the largest shares saying they’ve seen content about mental health (66%) and weight loss (66%). Younger users are particularly likely to report being exposed to health information on TikTok, with large shares of users ages 18-29 reporting seeing advice or information about several different health topics on the app, including mental health (91%), weight loss (79%), while many other younger users report seeing advice or information about abortion (59%), and birth control (52%).
  • While about four in ten TikTok users say they trust information about health issues they see on the app, just one in eight say they have ever talked to a doctor (13%) or sought mental health treatment (12%) at least in part because of something they saw on TikTok. Larger shares of younger users ages 18-29 say they trust health information on TikTok (53%), and younger users are also more likely than older users to say they followed up with a doctor (19%) or sought mental health treatment (26%) due to content they’ve seen on the app.
  • Most TikTok users say the content they’ve seen on the app has not affected their confidence in science and scientists, birth control, or vaccines. Overall, about one in seven users say content on TikTok has made them “less confident” (15%) in the safety and effectiveness of vaccines and a similar share (12%) say it has made them “more confident.” Among Republican TikTok users, however, a larger share say content on the app has made them “less confident” in vaccines (24%) rather than “more confident” (7%).
  • When it comes to TikTok content centered on election issues, most users report either not seeing content related to these issues or seeing content that is a mix of different opinions on these topics. For the most part, TikTok users who identify as Democrats and Republicans report seeing a somewhat different mix of political content on the platform. On the issue of abortion, however, TikTok users across the political spectrum are much more likely to say the content they see on the app is mostly pro-choice or supportive or abortion rights rather than anti-abortion or supportive of abortion restrictions. Even among Republican TikTok users, the share who say they mostly see pro-choice content on the app is roughly three times the share who say they mostly see anti-abortion content (17% v. 5%).

TikTok Use and Exposure to Health Information

Just under half of adults say they use the social media app TikTok, including at least six in ten younger adults, Black adults, and Hispanic adults. About four in ten (44%) adults say they use TikTok, including larger shares of younger adults ages 18-29 (66%) and ages 30-49 (54%) and fewer adults ages 50 and older (27%). The app is more popular among people of color with about six in ten Hispanic adults (63%) and Black adults (62%) saying they use TikTok compared to about one-third of White adults (34%). Women are more likely than men to use say they use TikTok (47% v. 40%).

Similar shares – or at least four in ten – Democrats, independents and Republicans report using TikTok. About one in five adults (18%) report using the app every day, including nearly four in ten adults ages 18 to 29 (37%) and a similar share of Hispanic adults (36%).

One in Five Adults Say They Use TikTok Daily, with Use Highest Among Younger Adults, Black and Hispanic Adults, and Women

Most TikTok users report seeing health-related content on the app, including a majority who say they’ve seen information or advice about mental health (66%) or weight loss (66%). About four in ten TikTok users say they’ve seen information or advice about vaccines (42%) on the platform, while about a third say the same about abortion (36%), prescription drugs (34%), and birth control (34%). Younger TikTok users are more likely than older users to say they’ve seen some of these topics on TikTok, with larger shares of users ages 18 to 29 saying they’ve seen information or advice about mental health (91%), weight loss (79%), abortion (59%), or birth control (52%). Women are more likely than men who use TikTok to say they have seen information or advice about mental health (71% v. 61%) or birth control (41% v. 25%) on the app. About half of women of reproductive age – or those ages 18 to 49 – report seeing information or advice on TikTok about prescription birth control on (54%) or abortion (48%). Democrats (35%) and independents (41%) who use TikTok are more likely than Republican users (23%) to report seeing information or advice about birth control on the app; however, similar shares across partisans report seeing information about most of these other subjects.

Perhaps not surprisingly, there is a relationship between frequency of TikTok use and the amount of health-related content people report seeing on the app. Adults who use TikTok “every day” are more likely than those who use the app monthly or less often to say they’ve seen information or advice about each of the health-related topics included in the survey. Notably, larger shares of younger adults and women report using the app every day compared to older adults and men, respectively, which may at least partially explain why these groups report seeing more health-related content on the app.

Mental Health and Weight Loss Are Among the Top Health-Related Subjects TikTok Users Say They Have Seen Information or Advice About on the App

Trust and Conversations about Health Information on TikTok

Fewer than half of TikTok users say they trust information about health issues that they see on the app, but younger users, Black adults, and Hispanic adults report higher levels of trust. Overall, four in ten TikTok users say they trust information they see about health issues on TikTok at least “somewhat,” including 9% who say they trust such information a “great deal.” Most users say they trust health information on TikTok “not much” (36%) or “not at all” (23%).

TikTok users between the ages of 18-29 are more likely than older adults to say they trust health information on TikTok, with about half (53%) of these younger adults saying they trust information about health issues on the app at least somewhat – including one in six (17%) who say they trust health information on TikTok “a great deal” – compared to smaller shares of older TikTok users. Similar shares of women and men who use TikTok say they trust information about health issues that they see on the app.

Among those who report using TikTok every day (18% of all adults), six in ten (58%) say they trust information about health issues they see on the app at least “somewhat.” Adults who use the app less frequently are less likely than daily users to report trusting health information they see on TikTok. Notably, daily TikTok users are disproportionately made up of younger adults ages 18 to 29.

About Four in Ten TikTok Users Say They Trust Health Information They See on the App, Including Larger Shares of Younger Users, Black or Hispanic Users, and Daily Users

Few TikTok users overall and across demographics say they’ve talked to a doctor or sought mental health treatment because of something they saw on the app, but younger users and women are more likely than older users and men to report doing so. About one in eight adults who use TikTok say they have ever talked to a doctor or other health care provider at least in part because of something they saw on TikTok (13%) or decided to seek mental health treatment at least in part because of something they saw on the app (12%). Younger users are more likely than older adults to report either of these, with a quarter (26%) of TikTok users between the ages of 18 and 29 saying they decided to seek mental health treatment and one in five (19%) saying they talked to a doctor or health care provider because of something they saw on the app. Among TikTok users, women are about twice as likely as men to say they talked to a doctor or health care provider (17% v. 7%) or decided to seek mental health treatment due to something they saw on the app (15% v. 8%). The share who report talking to a doctor or seeking mental health treatment at least partly because of something they saw on TikTok rises to about one in five among those who use TikTok every day (20% and 18%, respectively). Nonetheless, most of these daily users say they have not followed up with a doctor or sought mental mental health treatment due to content they’ve seen on the app.

Few TikTok Users Say They Have Ever Talked to a Doctor or Sought Mental Health Treatment Because of Something They Saw on the App

While most TikTok users say content they’ve seen on the app has not affected their confidence in science and scientists, prescription birth control, or the safety and effectiveness of vaccines, users are more likely to say content on the app has made them more confident in science and scientists rather than less confident. At least seven in ten TikTok users say information they’ve seen on the app has not affected their confidence in the safety of prescription birth control (76%), the safety and effectiveness of vaccines (73%), or science and scientists (70%).

When it comes to trust in science and scientists, TikTok users are nearly three times as likely to say content they’ve seen on the app has made them more confident in science and scientists rather than less confident (22% vs. 8%). By contrast, when it comes to confidence in prescription birth control and the safety and effectiveness of vaccines similar shares of TikTok users say content they’ve seen on the app has made them more confident as less confident (12% each for birth control, 12% and 15% for vaccines). Similar shares of women and men – including women of reproductive age under the age of 50 — who use TikTok say content on the app has made them either more or less confident in prescription birth control, with about three in four saying it has not made a difference.

Most TikTok Users Say the App’s Content Has Not Impacted Their Confidence in Science, Birth Control, or Vaccines

Most TikTok users across demographics say content on the app has not affected their confidence in the safety and effectiveness of vaccines, however Republicans are more likely to say TikTok content has made them less confident in vaccines rather than more confident. Overall, about one in seven users say content on TikTok has made them “less confident” (15%) in the safety and effectiveness of vaccines and a similar share (12%) say it has made them “more confident.” For most groups across age, partisanship, race and ethnicity, the shares saying TikTok content increased their confidence in vaccines is similar to the share who say it decreased their confidence.

However, one group breaks with this pattern: Republican TikTok users are about three times as likely to say content on the app has made them “less confident” in the safety and effectiveness of vaccines rather than “more confident” (24% v. 7%).

Vaccine misinformation may affect parents’ confidence in vaccinating their young children, and recent KFF polling has shown that about a quarter of parents report believing false information about measles vaccines. Just under one in five (17%) parents who use TikTok say content they’ve seen on the app has made them “less confident” in the safety and effectiveness of vaccines while a similar share of parents say it has made them “more confident” (11%). However, most parents who use TikTok say the content they’ve seen on the app hasn’t affected their confidence in the safety and effectiveness of vaccines.

Republican TikTok Users Are More Likely to Say Content They’ve Seen on the App Has Made Them Less Confident in Vaccines

Election Issues on TikTok

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, TikTok users may be exposed to election-related topics and one-sided political discourse, particularly as growing shares of U.S. adults report regularly getting their news from the app. However, like other social media platforms, the content users see on their TikTok feeds may vary from person-to-person, as it is curated by the app’s proprietary algorithm.

When it comes to TikTok content centered on some key election issues, including the presidential candidates, abortion, guns, and immigration, most users report either not seeing content related to these issues or seeing content that is a mix of different opinions on these topics. For the most part, TikTok users who identify as Democrats and Republicans report seeing a somewhat different mix of political content, particularly when it comes to presidential candidates, but these patterns are not universal across the topics included in the survey.

It’s important to note that this survey measures self-report views of TikTok content, which may not necessarily match up with other studies that look at actual content in users’ video feeds.

Overall, few TikTok users report mostly seeing one-sided content related to the presidential candidates, but slightly larger shares say the content they see on the app is mostly pro-Donald Trump or anti-Joe Biden rather than mostly pro-Biden or anti-Trump, with even larger tilts toward pro-Trump or anti-Biden content among Republican users and young adults. The shares of TikTok users who say the content they see on the app is mostly Pro-Donald Trump or anti-Joe Biden (14%) is slightly higher than the share who say the content they see is mostly pro-Joe Biden or anti-Donald Trump (10%), with one in three (34%) saying the content they see is a mix of both viewpoints, and four in ten saying they don’t see content related to either Trump or Biden on TikTok.

Perhaps not surprisingly, Republican TikTok users are about three times as likely to say the content they see is mostly pro-Trump/anti-Biden rather than pro-Biden/anti-Trump (29% v. 10%), while Democrats are about twice as likely to say the content they see mostly favors Biden rather than Trump (16% vs. 7%).

Notably, TikTok users ages 18 to 29 and Hispanic TikTok users are about twice as likely to say most of the content they see is pro-Trump or anti-Biden rather than pro-Biden or anti-Trump (21% vs. 11% for young users and 18% vs. 8% for Hispanic adults).

Younger TikTok Users and Republican Users Are More Likely to Report Seeing Pro-Trump or Anti-Biden Content on the App

Across partisanship and other demographics, the share of TikTok users who say the content they see on the app is mostly pro-choice or supportive of abortion rights (24%) is far larger than the share who say the content they see is mostly anti-abortion or supportive of abortion restrictions (4%). The share of TikTok users who say they mostly see pro-choice content rises to four in ten (42%) among those ages 18 to 29 – larger than the shares who say the same among those ages 30 to 49 (22%) and 50 and older (8%). These younger users are also more likely than older adults to report seeing any abortion-related content on TikTok.

Few users across partisan groups (including just 5% of Republicans) report seeing mostly anti-abortion content on TikTok, though Democrats who use TikTok are more likely than Republican users to say the content they see is mostly pro-choice of supportive of abortion rights (32% v. 17%).

Overall, men and women who use TikTok are each much more likely to report seeing mostly pro-choice content than to say they see mostly anti-abortion content. While about three in four (27%) women who use TikTok say the content they see is mostly pro-choice, this rises to about one-third (34%) among women ages 18 to 49.

Despite these differences, most users – including at least half across partisanship, age, and gender – say the content they see related to abortion on TikTok is either a mix of both pro and anti-abortion viewpoints (22%) or they don’t see this content related to abortion at all (50%).

TikTok Users Across Demographics Are More Likely to Report Seeing Content on the App That Is Mostly Pro-Choice or Supportive of Abortion Rights

Most TikTok users who report seeing gun-related content on the app say they see a mix of viewpoints, but Democrats and younger users are more likely to report seeing mostly anti-gun content. One quarter of TikTok users say they see a mix of gun-related viewpoints on the app, while about one in ten each say they mostly see pro-gun content (8%) or anti-gun content (10%) and over half (57%) report not seeing gun-related content on TikTok.

Democrats who use TikTok are about twice as likely to say they mostly see anti-gun content as opposed to pro-gun content on the app (16% v. 7%). Younger TikTok users ages 18 to 29 are about twice as likely to say they mostly see anti-gun content than pro-gun content (18% v. 9%), while other age groups report seeing either viewpoint in similar shares.

Among all TikTok users, and across these demographic groups, most users say the content they see is either a mix of both pro and anti-gun or say they do not see gun-related content on the app.

Most TikTok Users Who See Gun-Related Content Report Seeing a Mix of Viewpoints, but Democrats and Younger Users Are More Likely to See Anti-Gun Content

TikTok users report seeing a mix of immigration-related content on the app, with no clear differences by partisanship. For immigration-related content, somewhat larger shares of TikTok users say the content they see is mostly pro-immigration (15%) compared to those who say they mostly see anti-immigration content (10%). Most users, however, say the content they see is either a mix of both pro and anti-immigration viewpoints (27%) or they don’t see this content on TikTok (47%). Despite often bitter partisan debates over the country’s approach to immigration policy (an issue that has ranked high among voters’ top issues ahead the 2024 election) among Democrats, independents and Republicans who use TikTok, similar shares say the content they see on the app is either mostly pro-immigration or anti-immigration, with at least one in five across these groups saying they see a mix of viewpoints.

Younger TikTok users ages 18 to 29 are about twice as likely to say the content they see on the app is mostly pro-immigration rather than anti-immigration (25% v. 13%), but among older age groups, similar shares report seeing either mostly pro-immigration content or mostly anti- immigration content.

While About Half of TikTok Users Report Seeing Immigration Content on the App, Relatively Few Say the Content Is Mostly One-Sided

Methodology

This KFF Health Tracking Poll/Health Misinformation Tracking Poll was designed and analyzed by public opinion researchers at KFF. The survey was conducted April 23-May 1, 2024, online and by telephone among a nationally representative sample of 1,479 U.S. adults in English (1,396) and in Spanish (83). The sample includes 1,201 adults (n=65 in Spanish) reached through the SSRS Opinion Panel either online (n=1,176) or over the phone (n=25). The SSRS Opinion Panel is a nationally representative probability-based panel where panel members are recruited randomly in one of two ways: (a) Through invitations mailed to respondents randomly sampled from an Address-Based Sample (ABS) provided by Marketing Systems Groups (MSG) through the U.S. Postal Service’s Computerized Delivery Sequence (CDS); (b) from a dual-frame random digit dial (RDD) sample provided by MSG. For the online panel component, invitations were sent to panel members by email followed by up to three reminder emails.

Another 278 (n=18 in Spanish) interviews were conducted from a random digit dial telephone sample of prepaid cell phone numbers obtained through MSG. Phone numbers used for the prepaid cell phone component were randomly generated from a cell phone sampling frame with disproportionate stratification aimed at reaching Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black respondents. Stratification was based on incidence of the race/ethnicity groups within each frame.

Respondents in the phone samples received a $15 incentive via a check received by mail, and web respondents received a $5 electronic gift card incentive (some harder-to-reach groups received a $10 electronic gift card). In order to ensure data quality, cases were removed if they failed two or more quality checks: (1) attention check questions in the online version of the questionnaire, (2) had over 30% item non-response, or (3) had a length less than one quarter of the mean length by mode. Based on this criterion, two cases were removed.

The combined cell phone and panel samples were weighted to match the sample’s demographics to the national U.S. adult population using data from the Census Bureau’s 2023 Current Population Survey (CPS), September 2021 Volunteering and Civic Life Supplement data from the CPS, and the 2023 KFF Benchmarking survey with ABS and prepaid cell phone samples. The demographic variables included in weighting for the general population sample are sex, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, civic engagement, frequency of internet use, political party identification by race/ethnicity, and education. The sample of registered voters was weighted separately to match the U.S. registered voter population using parameters above plus recalled vote in the 2020 presidential election by county quintiles grouped by Trump vote share. Both weights account for differences in the probability of selection for each sample type (prepaid cell phone and panel). This includes adjustment for the sample design and geographic stratification of the cell phone sample, within household probability of selection, and the design of the panel-recruitment procedure.

The margin of sampling error including the design effect for the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points and is plus or minus 4 percentage points for registered voters. Numbers of respondents and margins of sampling error for key subgroups are shown in the table below. For results based on other subgroups, the margin of sampling error may be higher. Sample sizes and margins of sampling error for other subgroups are available by request. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll. KFF public opinion and survey research is a charter member of the Transparency Initiative of the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

GroupN (unweighted)M.O.S.E.
Total1,479± 3 percentage points
Total registered voters1,243± 4 percentage points
Republican registered voters372± 7 percentage points
Democratic registered voters417± 6 percentage points
Independent registered voters323± 7 percentage points
 
Have ever used GLP-1 drugs
Yes189± 9 percentage points
No1,288± 4 percentage points
TikTok use
TikTok users677± 5 percentage points

 

House Appropriations Committee Approves the FY 2025 State and Foreign Operations (SFOPs) Appropriations Bill

Published: Jun 12, 2024

The House Committee on Appropriations approved the FY 2025 State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs (SFOPs) appropriations bill and accompanying report on June 12, 2024. The SFOPs bill includes funding for U.S. global health programs at the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Funding for these programs, through the Global Health Programs (GHP) account, which represents the bulk of global health assistance, totaled $9.3 billion, a decrease of $1.3 billion (-12%) below the FY 2024 enacted level and $559 million (-6%) below President Biden’s FY 2025 request. As compared to FY 2024 enacted levels, funding for the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund) and family planning and reproductive health (FP/RH) declined (the Global Fund decrease is related to a funding match requirement that limits the amount the U.S. can contribute — a cap of 33% of total contributions to the Global Fund for all other donors), while all other areas either remained flat or increased slightly; funding for global health security was not specified.[i]  The bill does not include funding for the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), World Health Organization (WHO), or Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). The bill also eliminates funding for the International Organizations & Programs (IO&P) account, which has historically been the source of U.S. contributions to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF).[ii]

Policy provisions in the bill include:

  • the Helms amendment, a standard provision that is regularly included in appropriations bills (see the KFF fact sheet here),
  • an expanded Mexico City Policy (Protecting Life in Global Health Assistance) that was put in place by President Trump and rescinded by President Biden (see the KFF explainer here),
  • a provision stating that support for multilateral organizations through the Contributions to International Organizations (CIO) account must comply with statutory prohibitions and requirements related to abortion,
  • a provision stating that if the President/Executive Branch agrees to the pandemic treaty at the World Health Assembly without first submitting it to the Senate and receiving Senate approval, no funding for global health security may be obligated (see the KFF brief on the Pandemic Treaty here),
  • a provision for the Secretary of State to submit a report to the Committee on Appropriations within 90 days of the Act detailing the origins of COVID-19,
  • and a restriction on provision of funding to any domestic or international NGO that provides gender-affirming care.

See other budget summaries and the KFF budget tracker for details on historical annual appropriations for global health programs.

KFF Analysis of Global Health Funding in the FY25 House State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs (SFOPs) Appropriations Bill

[i] The explanatory statement accompanying the House FY25 SFOPs appropriations bill does not provide specific funding amounts for FP/RH or global health security (GHS) under the GHP account. After the funding amounts specified for all other areas (e.g., HIV, TB, MCH, etc.) are removed, $864.71 million remains under the GHP account at USAID, which is funding that could be used for FP/RH and GHS (or other areas as determined by the Administration). Since the House FY25 bill text states that “of the funds appropriated by this Act, not more than $461,000,000 may be made available for family planning/reproductive health” without specifying an account, it is possible the Administration could fund all or a portion of this amount through the GHP account with the remainder directed to GHS (or other areas as determined by the Administration). If the Administration funds the full $461 million through the GHP account, this could represent a significant decrease to GHS funding; if the Administration funds the full $461 million through non-GHP accounts, this could represent an increase to GHS funding.[ii] It is possible that funding for UNICEF may be provided through another account.