Putting U.S. Global COVID-19 Vaccine Donations in Context

Published: May 25, 2021

On May 17, 2021 President Biden announced that by the end of June, the U.S. would donate 80 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine for use internationally. Sixty million of these doses are expected to be U.S.-owned doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine (enough to vaccinate 30 million people), which has yet to be authorized in the U.S. but is authorized in multiple countries. An additional 20 million U.S.-owned doses will be from a mix of Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson and Johnson vaccines (while the exact combination of doses for each was not announced, this could amount to enough vaccines for an additional 10-20 million people).

Prior to this point, the U.S. had provided 4 million doses of AstraZeneca to Canada and Mexico (via a “loan”), so 80 million doses would represent a significant increase in U.S. vaccine donations and make the U.S. the largest single country donor of in-kind vaccine doses worldwide (see Figure). In addition, the U.S. has also appropriated $4 billion to COVAX, the international partnership for COVID-19 vaccine procurement and distribution overseen by the Gavi Alliance, CEPI, and the World Health Organization, making the U.S. the largest donor to this effort as well.* In addition, vaccine production and manufacturing continue to lag and a key supplier of global vaccines has announced it will not be exporting any additional doses until the end of this year, underscoring the importance of countries donating doses in the near term.

While some have praised the most recent U.S. donation announcement as an important development, others have said the U.S. could do much more, pointing to the large supply of doses the U.S. is building up and the slowing demand for vaccinations in the country.  We sought to put the U.S. pledge of 80 million doses in further context, looking at what it represents relative to the current landscape:

  • Almost 3 times the number of doses pledged by the next largest country donor, France;**
  • 56% of donated doses from all other governments combined;
  • 115% of the total number of doses already delivered by COVAX through May 20;
  • Less than 2% of the number of doses needed to vaccinate all people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs);
  • 8-16% of the number of doses sufficient to vaccinate the highest risk groups in LMICs – health care workers and adults over 65;
  • 29% of the total cumulative vaccine doses administered in the U.S. (as of May 18).
  • Figure: US pledge of 80 million doses vs. pledges from other donor governments

The world is still very unequal in terms of access to vaccines across regions and income groups, with estimates that some lower-income countries may not be able to vaccinate a majority of their adult populations for a year or more, even as many high-income countries approach or have already exceeded this milestone. Therefore, donated doses can help speed global vaccinations, provided the doses are distributed efficiently and administered effectively in the countries that need them. The U.S. has so far pledged to donate more doses than any other country and has provided the largest contribution to COVAX to date. Still, the U.S. effort represents only a fraction of what would be needed to vaccinate everyone, raising challenging questions about how access to COVID-19 vaccines will be scaled up and on what timeline, and what the role should of high income countries like the U.S. will be going forward.

Notes and Sources

*Information on the price of vaccine doses paid by COVAX to manufacturers is not available, so it is not known how many COVAX doses the U.S. contribution would support.

**Donors have pledged to provide COVID-19 doses over different time frames. For example, France has pledged to provide 30 million doses by the end of 2021, while the U.S. has pledged to provide 80 million doses by the end of June.

Data on COVID-19 vaccine dose donations were obtained from the UNICEF COVID-19 Vaccine Market Dashboard and other public news sources. Data include donations provided bilaterally as well as through COVAX. Data include donations with a confirmed delivery status and pledges.

COVAX delivery data were obtained from the UNICEF COVID-19 Vaccine Market Dashboard.

Population data for adults over 65 years in low- and middle-income countries, as defined by the World Bank, were obtained from the United Nations World Population Prospects using 2020 estimates. Health workforce data for low- and middle-income countries were obtained from World Health Organization National Health Workforce Accounts Data Portal, limiting data to the estimated number of physicians, nurses, and midwives under 65 years for the most recent year of data available.

U.S. vaccine administration data obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID Data Tracker.

Role of Mothers in Assuring Children Receive COVID-19 Vaccinations

Published: May 24, 2021

Introduction

Much has been written about the multiple roles that women, particularly mothers have played in all stages of the pandemic – including as frontline workers, paid and informal caregivers, and ad hoc homeschool teachers just to name a few. Mothers will also play a pivotal role in the national efforts to get as many eligible children as possible vaccinated against COVID-19. Use of the COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer has now been authorized for adolescents ages 12 – 15, and younger children may become eligible for vaccination later this year. While on average children have had less severe impact of COVID-19, cases of death, severe illness, and long-term consequences of COVID-19 have been documented among children. Even when they do not fall ill from COVID-19, asymptomatic children can be a source of spread of the disease.

Who will ensure that kids receive vaccinations?

Parents will be the ones who determine whether children get their vaccines (Figure 1). In the 2020 Kaiser Women’s Health Survey, roughly seven in ten mothers of children under 18 say they are usually the ones who select their children’s doctor (68%), take children to medical appointments (70%) and follow up on recommended care (67%). Mothers and fathers differ somewhat on their assessment of involvement in children’s health care, but even among fathers, less than a fifth report they take care of these tasks and a substantial share say their partner takes care of them (Figure 1). However, about half of fathers say they share these responsibilities equally with a partner or other parent, compared to about a quarter of mothers.

Most mothers say they take care of health care needs for children, may extend to obtaining COVID-19 vaccinations too

While the majority of mothers in all groups say they are the ones who usually take care of kids’ health care needs, it is higher among Black and low-income mothers compared to those who are White and low-income, as we have previously reported. These differences are particularly important, given the disproportionate toll of the pandemic on communities of color and those who are low-income. More than one-third (36%) of children ages 12-15 are in low-income families. Not surprisingly, single mothers shoulder a higher share of children’s health care needs compared to those who are married/living with a partner.

Another concern will be how mothers will find the time to take their children to get vaccinated and to deal with the potential side effects from the vaccine their children may experience and the impact on their pay. The Pfizer vaccine requires two shots and children may experience side effects that prevent them from attending school or other care. For employed parents, this may require taking time off from work and this responsibility has typically fallen on the shoulders of the mother. Six in ten (61%) employed mothers report that they are usually the ones who care for children when they are sick and cannot go to school, and nearly half (46%) of this group report that they are not paid for that time off. This gap is larger among some groups, particularly mothers who are Hispanic, low-income, or single, who also are more likely to have to care for children when they are sick and cannot attend school (Figure 2). In fact, less than half of employed low-income mothers (46%) report being offered paid sick leave compared to nearly three in four with higher incomes (72%).

Three in four employed mothers who are low-income do not get paid if they miss work when their children are sick and cannot go to school

What do we know about parents’ interest in vaccines?

While mothers have traditionally played a leading role in managing their children’ health care, it is unclear how families are making decisions about whether their children should be vaccinated against COVID-19.  Data from the latest KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor find that as of mid-April (before the FDA authorized the vaccines for use in children ages 12-15), about a third of mothers (32%) of children under 18 said they would get their children vaccinated as soon as a vaccine was authorized for their child’s age group or have already gotten their child vaccinated (Figure 3). Nearly a third (31%) wanted to wait and see how the vaccine is working, 15% said they would only get it if required for school, and about a fifth (19%) said they would not get their children vaccinated. Rates among fathers are similar.

While the majority of mothers said they were not planning to get their children vaccinated right away, nearly half (48%) of mothers and 40% of fathers say they are worried (very or somewhat) about someone in their family getting sick from COVID-19. The share who are worried about someone in their family getting sick from COVID-19 rises to 65% among mothers whose kids are already vaccinated or want to get their kids vaccinated right away, 57% among mothers who want to wait and see before deciding on children’s vaccinations, but only 21% among mothers who do not want to get their children vaccinated or will only do so if required.

Figure 3: Many mothers do not plan to get their children the COVID-19 vaccine right away. Those that do are more worried about family members becoming sick.

When it comes to adult vaccinations, more than half (56%) of mothers with children under 18 said they themselves have already been vaccinated or want to get vaccinated as soon as possible. A fifth of mothers said they want to wait and see about getting vaccinated themselves (20%) and about a fifth (21%) said they will not get vaccinated or will do it only if it is required (Figure 4). These percentages are similar among fathers.

With regard to COVID-19 vaccinations for themselves, about four in ten mothers of school age children say they want to wait and see, will only get it if required or will not get it

While we do not know the rationale for the lack of urgency some parents have so far regarding getting their children vaccinated, it can be informative to look at the reasons that parents state for not getting vaccinated yet themselves (Table 1). Among unvaccinated parents, the vast majority of mothers (88%) are concerned about experiencing serious side effects, higher than fathers (74%). Relatedly, nearly two-thirds of mothers (65%) also report concern about missing work if the side effects make them feel sick for a day or more, compared to less than half of fathers (47%). Many mothers and fathers also fear that the vaccines are not as safe as they are said to be.

Additionally, a larger share of unvaccinated parents with household incomes below $40,000 annually compared to those with higher incomes are also worried about experiencing serious side effects and having to miss work due to vaccine side effects. Parents may have these same concerns about their children experiencing side effects and needing to miss work to attend to them, particularly if they do not have paid sick leave benefits. Compared to higher income parents, a larger share of lower-income parents are also concerned about having to pay out-of-pocket costs for the vaccines (48% vs. 24%) and not being able to get the vaccine from a place they trust (48% vs. 27%).

Table 1: Among unvaccinated parents, mothers more concerned than fathers about time off work for vaccine side effects

Now that the FDA has authorized the Pfizer vaccine for adolescents, with younger children likely soon to follow, eyes have begun to shift to vaccine uptake among children. However, with less than a third of parents ready to get their children vaccinated right away, it will be important to provide accurate information to address their concerns. In addition, many parents, particularly mothers, report apprehension about side effects, and missing work with respect to their own vaccination decisions. Efforts to address these concerns such as paid sick leave or time off for children’s vaccinations could provide indirect avenues to allay potential fears regarding vaccinations for their children as well. Mothers have long played an outsize role in managing their children’s health, a role which could be central in determining how many children get vaccinated for COVID-19.

How Might Current Federal Drug Pricing Proposals Impact Medicaid?

Author: Rachel Dolan
Published: May 24, 2021

Prescription drug spending has again returned to the policy agenda, with Congress and the Administration developing proposals to target drug prices. Though attention in current federal actions is largely focused on Medicare and private insurance drug prices, federal legislation also has been recently introduced or enacted that would affect Medicaid prescription drug policy. In 2019, Medicaid gross drug spending was $66 billion and $37 billion was offset by rebates, resulting in $29 billion of net spending that is shared by states and the federal government.  A separate analysis examines an array of leading federal and state policy drug pricing proposals and implications for Medicaid. A number of these proposals are included in two key bills that have been reintroduced in the 117th Congress:  H.R. 3, The Elijah E. Cummings Lower Drug Costs Now Act, passed the house in 2019, it did not become law and has since been reintroduced in the 117th Congress. H.R. 19, The Lower Costs More Cures Act has also been reintroduced (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Overview of Provisions Impacting Medicaid in H.R. 19 and H.R. 3

Among the most notable provisions of H.R. 3 are allowing the government to negotiate drug prices for Medicare, which is not allowed under current law, and levying a penalty on drug prices that rise faster than inflation, both of which will likely affect Medicaid drug rebates. H.R. 3 would grant the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) authority to negotiate prices for between 50 and 250 drugs without market competition, with an upper limit based on prices in a set of foreign countries. The negotiated price would apply to both Medicare and could also be used by commercial payers. There is also an additional penalty on Medicare drugs with prices rising faster than inflation. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Medicaid direct spending would likely increase by about $2.5 billion due to lower rebate payments and higher launch prices due to the Medicare price negotiation and expanded inflation rebates, but federal spending overall would decrease significantly due to the large amount saved on Medicare drugs. Because Medicaid already receives inflationary rebates on drugs that have had large price increases over time, decreasing those prices may lead to lower rebates for the program. For brand drugs, inflation rebates account for about half of the total rebate Medicaid receives.

H.R. 19 includes provisions that would limit spread pricing by pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) in Medicaid. Spread pricing refers to the difference between the payment the PBM receives from the state or MCO and the reimbursement amount it pays to the pharmacy. H.R. 19 would eliminate spread pricing in Medicaid by requiring pass-through pricing and only allow PBMs to collect an administrative fee. The version of H.R. 3 that passed the house in 2019 included a ban on spread pricing in Medicaid but the version reintroduced in 2021 does not. Eliminating spread pricing would generate savings for states and the federal government, through lower payments to MCOs or PBMs, approximately $929 million over ten years.

Both H.R. 3 and H.R. 19 would make information about list prices more accessible in an effort to curb drug costs. H.R. 19  includes a number of transparency provisions targeted both at Medicaid and at drug prices overall, including making National Average Drug Acquisition Cost (NADAC, a federal survey of pharmacies that helps states to determine pharmacy acquisition cost) mandatory, increasing oversight of manufacturer reporting for the MDRP, requiring manufacturers to provide notification and justification for certain price increases and for that information to be made available to the public. H.R. 3 would require the HHS Secretary to make the negotiated prices for drugs available to the public and would also require manufacturers to report to the Secretary of HHS to justify certain price increases. The impact of transparency on actual prices is uncertain, and may not produce savings for the Medicaid program unless transparency results in more accurate reimbursement to pharmacies or more accurate price reporting that increases rebates paid to states and the federal government.

H.R. 19 includes other provisions that have implications for Medicaid. H.R. 19 also includes other Medicaid-specific provisions, including collecting data on prescribing patterns and increased oversight of Medicaid pharmacy and therapeutic (P&T) committees. The bill would also create a state option for risk-sharing value-based agreements for curative drugs that would allow states to pay in installments over time.

Both H.R. 3 and H.R. 19 would make significant changes to the Medicare drug benefit and lower out of pocket costs for beneficiaries and people with private insurance, too. The proposals are expected to yield significant federal savings related to Medicare and private insurance, but there are implications for Medicaid as well. H.R. 3 and H.R. 19 have been introduced in the House and referred to committees, but a relatively narrow Democratic majority in the House and even narrower majority in the Senate could make legislative action difficult. However, if drug pricing proposals that offer significant savings, such as H.R. 3, do gain traction, the federal savings could be used as offsets for policies to advance other health care initiatives, such as lowering the age of Medicare eligibility and improving Medicare benefits or covering people in the Medicaid coverage gap.

News Release

Lowering the Age of Medicare Eligibility to 60 Could Reduce the Cost of Health Care and Have a Modest Effect on the Number of People Who Are Uninsured

Published: May 21, 2021

A new KFF analysis shows that lowering the age of Medicare eligibility to 60 could improve the affordability of coverage for people who are already insured and expand coverage to over a million of the nation’s 30 million uninsured.

Such a policy could provide a path to Medicare coverage for up to 11.7 million people with employer-based insurance and 2.4 million with private, non-group coverage who are ages 60 to 64, although it is unclear how many would take up such coverage. Another 1.6 million people age 60-64 are uninsured and would be eligible for Medicare coverage under such a policy.

Lowering the age of Medicare eligibility could shift the cost of coverage largely from employers to the federal government and lower the cost of coverage for newly eligible people while increasing federal spending.

President Biden proposed lowering the age of Medicare eligibility to 60 during the presidential campaign and reiterated his support recently. Proposals to lower the age of Medicare, either to 60 or a younger age, may be considered by Congress.

The ultimate effect on coverage, access, and affordability of such a plan would depend on decisions individuals make and how the program is designed, including what type of premium and cost sharing assistance it provides to newly-eligible adults.

Coverage Implications of Policies to Lower the Age of Medicare Eligibility

Authors: Rachel Garfield, Matthew Rae, and Robin Rudowitz
Published: May 21, 2021

President Biden proposed lowering the age of Medicare eligibility to 60 during the presidential campaign and reiterated his support recently, with the goal of broadening coverage and making health coverage affordable for older adults.  Proposals to lower the age of Medicare, either to 60 or a younger age, may be considered by Congress.  One KFF analysis shows that lowering the age of Medicare eligibility to 60 could reduce costs for employer health plans by as much as 15 percent if all eligible employees shifted from employer plans to Medicare. In addition, another KFF analysis shows that 60- to 64-year-olds who move from employer plans to Medicare could be covered more cheaply because Medicare payments to hospitals, physicians and other health care providers are generally lower than what private insurance pays.

This data note looks at who might be affected by such policies and the implications for health coverage. Most people affected by a policy change to lower the age of Medicare already have private coverage, making the cost and affordability implications paramount. A relatively small share of people in this age range are currently uninsured, so the policy is likely to have a modest effect on increasing the number of people with health coverage.

Two-thirds of adults age 60-64 have private coverage, either through an employer (56%) or though the non-group market, including those in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace (11%) (Figure 1). The policy to lower the age of Medicare eligibility could potentially shift 11.7 million people with employer coverage and 2.4 million with non-group coverage into Medicare. It is not clear how the policy would affect the 14.5% (3 million) who have Medicaid coverage, including the 4% within this group (just under 1 million) that are dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid coverage (those who qualify on the basis of disability for both programs).  About 8% of people age 60-64, or 1.6 million people, are uninsured and could newly gain Medicare coverage under this policy.

Among uninsured adults age 60-64, most (66%) are eligible for financial assistance for coverage through the ACA marketplace or Medicaid (Figure 1). Nearly half (48%) are eligible for marketplace premium help, including those eligible under temporary ARPA subsidies, and 18% are Medicaid-eligible. About 15% are estimated to have access to private coverage offered by an employer, which they may view as unaffordable.  The remainder are in the coverage gap because they live in a state that has not expanded Medicaid (10%), are unauthorized immigrants (7%), or otherwise ineligible (2%).

Figure 1: Distribution of Health Insurance Coverage and Eligibility Among the Uninsured, among People Age 60-64​

While a policy to lower the age of Medicare may have a small effect on covering the nearly 30 million uninsured people in the United States, it could improve access or affordability for millions.  Policies to lower the age beyond 60—for example, to age 55 or even 50— could extend coverage to a larger number of uninsured adults (Table 1). Further, as other analysis shows, lowering the age of Medicare eligibility could shift the cost of coverage largely from employers to the federal government and lower the cost of coverage for this population while increasing federal spending. The ultimate effect on coverage, access, and affordability will depend on what type of premium and cost sharing assistance it provides to newly-eligible adults, as well as other structural factors.

Table 1: Health Insurance Coverage among Nonelderly Adults by Age, 2019
Coverage Distribution (%)
Number of People in Age Group (millions)EmployerNon-GroupMedicaidOther PublicUninsured
18-49 Years132.661.0%7%15.3%2.1%14.6%
50-54 Years20.264.8%7.8%12.8%4.0%10.6%
55-59 Years21.362.3%8.7%13.9%6.0%9.2%
60-64 Years20.856.3%11.3%14.5%10.1%7.8%
NOTE: Other public includes Medicare and military coverage. Medicaid includes people with multiple sources of coverage including Medicaid. For additional detail on coverage definitions, see sources and data notes here.SOURCE: KFF estimates based on the 2008-2019 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates.

Key Questions: HIV and COVID-19

Published: May 20, 2021

Just as the COVID-19 pandemic hit the United States (U.S.), the nation was ramping up efforts to address a different epidemic, HIV. Successful HIV outcomes require consistent access to care and medication, as does harnessing the preventive benefits of HIV treatment adherence. Similarly, key tools in HIV prevention are HIV testing and PrEP which necessitate access to health services. Yet, with options for medical care reduced, social distancing guidelines in place, and fears about COVID-19 exposure, COVID-19 threatened access to HIV care and prevention services and national efforts to address HIV. In addition, understanding the interplay of COVID-19 disease, vaccination, and HIV is important to the health of people with and at risk for HIV and curbing both epidemics. This analysis explores key questions around COVID-19 and HIV – what we know and what we are still learning.

Are people with HIV at higher risk for COVID-19?

NIH guidance states “whether people with HIV are at greater risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 infection is currently unknown.” While some researchers have proposed that people with HIV who are not virally suppressed or on treatment may be at increased risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, because of a compromised immune system, others have found no such correlation. Most research and guidance to date has focused on whether people with HIV are more likely to experience severe outcomes from COVID-19 (e.g. severe illness, hospitalization, and death). Findings in this area were mixed for many months but a recent WHO report examining data from 24 countries and more than 15,500 people with HIV hospitalized for COVID-19 finds HIV is an independent risk factor for severe or critical COVID. Most previous research concludes that risk appears greatest for those who are immunocompromised or face other comorbid conditions. This study is particularly notable as it isolates HIV as a risk factor after controlling for disease severity and comorbidities along with a range of other factors. A significant limitation to the study, however, is that it lacked data on engagement with HIV treatment or viral suppression. Additional data on HIV and COVID risk includes:

  • Referring to severity of COVID-19 outcomes, the CDC states that while information is still somewhat limited, “we believe people with HIV who are on effective HIV treatment have the same risk for COVID-19 [disease] as people who do not have HIV.” Elsewhere CDC states that people “who have serious underlying medical conditions might be at increased risk for severe illness” and this may include “people who have weakened immune systems,” including people with HIV with a low CD4 cell count or not engaged in HIV treatment. As such CDC includes HIV in its list of conditions that “can” make someone more likely to get severely ill from COVID-19.
  • NIH guidance and a recent article by Dr. Anthony Fauci and others also finds the evidence as to whether people with HIV are at higher risk for COVID-19 or severe disease outcomes mixed. However, it concludes, “it is clear that the COVID-19 pandemic has had a great negative impact on persons with HIV” and that “the severity of COVID-19 disease in persons with HIV is related strongly to the presence of comorbidities that increase the risk of severe disease in COVID-19 patients in the absence of HIV.” Indeed, some of these comorbidities are more common in people with HIV than in those who are HIV negative.
  • Another review article finds that “the interaction between SARS-CoV-2 and HIV infection is still unclear and data are, at times, conflicting” but highlights larger more recent studies that find “that people living with HIV (particularly with low CD4 cell counts or untreated HIV infection) might have a more severe clinical course than those who are HIV-negative.”

Notably, many people with HIV in the U.S. could be considered at increased risk for severe COVID-19 illness based on the CDC definition due to uncontrolled HIV. An estimated 7% of people with HIV had a geometric mean CD4 count of less than 200 cells/µL (a marker of severely impaired immune system), another 11% had a CD4 count of less than 350 cells/µL. Further, just 60% of people with HIV report 100% antiretroviral therapy dose adherence in the preceding 30 days and over one-third (38%) do not have sustained viral suppression.

Beyond risk associated with HIV infection, immunosuppression, or comorbidities, there are broader structural and contextual factors – the social determinants of health – that may have an impact on COVID-19 susceptibility among those with HIV.

How do the social determinants of health, and their relationship to HIV, affect COVID-19 risk?

Apart from HIV, or comorbidities that heighten the risk for increased COVID-19 severity, people with HIV are overly represented in many of the demographic groups that that have been hardest hit by the COVID pandemic. Indeed, many are the very factors that place communities at risk for HIV. As such, people with HIV may be at higher risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes by virtue of their representation in these groups.

Race/Ethnicity

People of color have been disproportionately impacted by both COVID-19 and HIV, with overlapping risk factors. Compared to White people, people of color have been harder hit by COVID-19 in terms of cases, hospitalization, and deaths. This is true among Black, Hispanic, and especially American Indian or Alaskan Native people. American Indian or Alaskan Native people faced 1.6 times the case rate, 2.4 times the death rate, and 3.5 times the hospitalization rates compared to White people. Hispanic people also faced higher comparative rates at 2.0, 3.0, and 2.3 times that of White people, respectively (see figure 1). While case rates among Black people were similar to those among White people, rates of hospitalization and death were higher at 3.0 and 2.3 times the rate, respectively.

Notably, Black and Hispanic people, groups hard hit by COVID-19, are also hardest hit by HIV. While Black people represent just 12% of the U.S. population, they account for 41% of HIV cases; Hispanic people make up 19% of the US population but 23% of HIV cases (see figure 2). In addition, compared to White people with HIV, people of color with HIV have lower rates of viral suppression and engaging in HIV care, which could also make them more vulnerable to severe COVID-19 illness.

Age

Severe COVID-19 disease and deaths have been concentrated among older adults and on average, people with HIV are older compared to the general population. Nearly all (95%) COVID related deaths occurred among those 50 years and older; 81% have been among those 65 years and older. Those aged 64-74 have forty-times the risk of COVID-19 hospitalization compared to children aged 5-17 and the risk is ninety-five times greater among those 85 and older.

While people 55 years or older make-up just over one-third of the US population (35%), they comprise 58% of people with HIV. COVID deaths are heavily concentrated among older adults. In addition, HIV has been associated with premature aging, even among those with viral suppression, which can lead to comorbidities typically seen in those 10-13 years older without HIV. As some of these comorbidities, such as cancer and heart disease, are also associated with severe COVID morbidity and mortality, people with HIV may be at greater risk for severe COVID-19 compared to those without HIV.

Sexual Orientation

While national data on COVID-19 cases and outcomes by sexual orientation is not available, LGBT people have been hard hit by the pandemic in other ways, including with respect to job loss and negative mental health effects. Our recent survey found that a larger share of LGBT adults compared to non-LGBT adults report that they or someone in their household has experienced COVID-era job loss (56% v. 44%). In addition, three-fourths of LGBT people (74%) say that worry and stress from the pandemic has had a negative impact on their mental health, compared to 49% of those who are not LGBT, and LGBT people are more likely to say that the negative impact has been major (49% v 23%).

People with HIV are more likely to be LGBT than those in the general population and thus could be especially vulnerable to these negative effects of the pandemic. Over half (53%) of people with HIV identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or have a sexual identity other than heterosexual. Separately, two percent identify as transgender. This compared to 4.5% of people in the general population who identify as LGBT.

Income

People who live on lower incomes are thought to be at higher risk of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and for serious illness if they become infected, compared to those who live on moderate to high incomes. Given that on average people with HIV live on substantially lower incomes than the general population, this too could put them in a higher risk group for COVID-19. Forty-three percent (43%) of adults with HIV live below the poverty level compared to 11% of U.S. adults overall.

Factors that contribute to these increased risks include socioeconomic and demographic circumstances and higher rates of certain comorbidities. People who live on lower incomes may be more likely to live in dense settings, work in essential jobs that did not allow for work remotely during the pandemic, or work in high-risk environments, such as in the service and healthcare industries. People on lower incomes may also be at higher risk due to increased rates of certain health conditions. For example, one KFF study found that non-elderly adults earning below $15,000 a year had double the risk of serious illness if they contracted COVID-19 compared to those earning $75,000 per year based on the presence of certain high-risk health conditions.

How likely is it that people with HIV live in COVID-19 hot spots?

People with HIV commonly live in counties hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Three-quarters (75%) of the top 20 US counties by HIV prevalence are also among the top 20 counties by COVID case and/or death burden. These 15 counties are home to 32% of people with HIV (see figure 3). While some of the overlap might be accounted for by urbanicity, 20% (4 in 20) of the counties hardest hit by COVID and HIV were not among the nation’s 20 most populous counties. In addition, counties hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic also face high levels of racial and ethnic, income, and other structural inequalities driven by deeply rooted discrimination.

What do we know about COVID-19 vaccines and HIV?

NIH clinical guidelines on COVID-19 and people with HIV state that “people with HIV should receive SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, regardless of CD4 or viral load, because the potential benefits outweigh potential risks” and also notes that people with HIV “who are well controlled on antiretroviral therapy (ART) typically respond well to licensed vaccines.” In addition, CDC states “people with moderately to severely compromised immune systems are especially vulnerable to COVID-19, and may not build the same level of immunity to 2-dose vaccine series compared to people who are not immunocompromised.” As such the agency “recommends that people with moderately to severely compromised immune systems receive an additional dose of mRNA COVID-19.” CDC includes people with “advanced or untreated HIV infection” in this group.

People with HIV were at first excluded from COVID-19 vaccine trials but were permitted to join midway through phase 3 clinical trials. Ultimately, all companies with vaccines authorized for use in the U.S. included people with HIV in their phase 3 trials. The largest group was in the Jansen (J&J) trial which enrolled 1,218 participants with HIV, representing 2.8% of the trial population, split evenly in the vaccine and placebo groups. In analysis the company provided to the FDA in February 2021, vaccine efficacy could not be observed specially among people with HIV based on limited data availability. However, data were not suggestive of any harm. Smaller numbers of people with HIV were enrolled in Moderna and Pfizer vaccine trials. In addition, AstraZenenca, Novavax, Sanofi/GlaxoSmithKline, which do not have authorization in the US, also recruited HIV positive participants. Overall, because participation to date has been relatively low, drawing conclusions about immune response among people with HIV is not yet possible.

Finally, CDC includes HIV among a list of conditions that can make someone more likely to get severely ill from COVID-19. In the past, the CDC list was divided into conditions known to have an increased risk for severe COVID-19 and conditions that might pose an increased risk. HIV was not included in the original list on its own, but “immunocompromised state,” defined to include immunocompromised due to HIV, was included in the second list. When making recommendations regarding prioritizing high-risk populations for COVID-19 vaccination, CDC referred to the main list which was also used by most states. States varied in how they incorporated the second list, including immunocompromised state, in their vaccine prioritization. Separately, some states elected to include HIV as a standalone priority condition. As a result, states varied on how early they prioritized people with HIV in their vaccine efforts.

The HIV Medical Association (HIVMA) and the Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) provide a regularly updated frequently asked questions documents on HIV and COVID-19 vaccinations aimed at clinicians.

What role is the federal government playing in addressing COVID-19 among people with HIV?

Several federal agencies or programs have specifically responded to the impact of COVID-19 on people with and at risk for HIV, including, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Health Resources Service Administration’s (HRSA) Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program, the National Institute of Health (NIH), and Housing and Urban Development’s (HUD’s) Housing Opportunities for People with AIDS (HOPWA) program:

  • CDC: CDC provides general guidance on people with HIV and COVID-19, including an evolving statement on risk and, as noted above, includes HIV in a list of conditions that can make someone more likely to get severely ill from COVID-19. HIV was not included in an earlier version of this list..In addition to providing public health guidance on people with HIV and COVID-19, CDC has also modified some of its prevention activities in light of the pandemic. CDC released guidance related to home or self-HIV testing, recognizing that “HIV testing that requires face-to-face contact has been scaled back or suspended because of the COVID-19 pandemic response.” Similarly, the agency also released guidance around PrEP and COVID-19 for “when facility-based services and in-person patient-clinician contact is limited,” describing options for home STI specimen collection and self-testing for HIV.CDC HIV program staff are also contributing significantly to the nation’s COVID response which has, per the agency, caused disruptions to care and treatment activities as the National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention. As of April 2021, nearly 700 CDC staff (with 1,125 cumulative deployments) from the National Center had been deployed to work on the COVID response since the epidemic began, in part, leveraging infectious disease expertise.1 
  • NIH: NIH’s national HIV guidelines now include a section on “Interim Guidance for COVID-19 and Persons with HIV.” In addition, the NIH’s COVID-19 treatment guidelines include a “special population” section on “Special Considerations in People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus.” These sections review recommendations for ongoing HIV treatment during the pandemic (and in the case of COVID-19 infection) as well as COVID-19 prevention, treatment, and vaccination among people with HIV and are considered “living documents,” updated on a regular basis as more data become available.
  • The Ryan White Program (HRSA): Ryan White, the nation’s safety-net for HIV care and treatment, faced significant challenges in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic. In our survey of Ryan White care providers conducted in late 2020, we found that operating challenges were common. Among those surveyed, 28% shut down all or most of their HIV prevention services in response to the pandemic at some point and others faced difficulty connecting with service partners or increased operating costs. Dealing with client and staff trauma and isolation was a significant challenge. However, in many cases, programs reported transforming to meet shifting client needs and to improve safety for staff and clients, including through offering telehealth, providing COVID-19 testing, and engaging in multi-month prescribing, among other activities..Recognizing the potential for increased need among people with HIV during the pandemic and, in order to “to prevent, prepare for, and respond to coronavirus,” Congress provided the Ryan White Program with $90 million in emergency funding in the CARES Act, the 3rd major COVID-relief package signed into law in March 2020. The Ryan White Program distributed the funding to 581 program grantees across the country, including to health departments, health clinics, community-based organizations and national training centers. In June 2021, The Program released a report examining grantees use of CARES Act funds for activities such as telehealth, COVID-19 testing, and other traditional program activities. It finds that, in December 2020, over 85,000 Ryan White clients received a service funded through the CARES Act grants. Grantees have used CARES Act funding to conduct and build out telehealth services including for ambulatory and mental health services, medical case management, and support services as well as to conduct COVID-19 testing, purchase protective equipment for staff and clients, fund client nutrition assistance programs, and support staff positions needed as part of pandemic response, and for other purposes. Between January 20, 2020 and December 31, 2020 CARES Act funded providers served nearly 19,000 clients with newly diagnosed COVID-19.In addition, the program has encouraged grantees to utilize existing flexibilities and waived certain requirements when possible, recognizing that business as usual has been challenged by the pandemic. In particular, the program has asked grantees to “reassess their organization’s eligibility and recertification policies and procedures and remove any procedures that may impede social distancing or other public health strategies necessary to minimize COVID-19 transmission, or that impose” unnecessary requirements. Historically, while some grantees have already simplified these processes, others have policies in place that can create barriers not required by the program. Certain penalties and requirements were waived for all grantees either automatically or by request, though some were only able to be extended to CARES Act funded activities. Waivers generally relate to penalties and how funds can be used.The program maintains an updated list of frequently ask questions about Ryan White and COVID-19. In addition, In January 2021, The Program issued a letter outlining how grant recipients can engage in vaccination efforts, noting that Ryan White grantees and subgrantees may “play an important role in COVID-19 vaccine administration” and that all play “a critical role in addressing COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and distributing information about local access to vaccines.”
  • Housing Opportunities for People AIDS Program (HOPWA) (HUD): The CARES Act also provided $65 million for the HOPWA program to maintain operations, for rental assistance, supportive services, and other necessary actions, in order to prevent, prepare for, and respond to coronavirus. Grants were distributed to 140 formula grantees, 82 current HOPWA competitive renewal grantees, and existing technical assistance providers. The HOPWA program also provided grantees with clarity around waivers and flexibilities to improve services during the pandemic.

What do we know about HIV care, treatment, and prevention service use during the pandemic?

It appears that for some, HIV care and especially prevention access, in the U.S., has been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. While in some cases services and prescription fills have improved, it does not yet appear they have returned to the pre-pandemic baseline:

  • Care and Testing: As noted above, despite pivots to providing care in new ways that mitigated some of the impact, Ryan White providers reported that their ability to provide certain services declined during the pandemic, though there are some reports that it has picked up to a certain extent. While some patients were harder to reach through telemedicine, others thrived with the technology and some who had been out-of-care, were brought back in..CDC researchers found that HIV testing and viral load monitoring declined in the wake of the pandemic. While HIV testing and viral load monitoring has begun to pick back up, as of September 2020, it had not recovered to 2019 levels. In a separate analysis, CDC also found that ambulatory care visits and viral load testing declined while telemedicine visits increased in 2020. However, despite the increase in telemedicine, total visits did not fully rebound to pre-pandemic levels. Other research has echoed this with one analysis of 8 clinical sites finding that outpatient office visits for HIV care declined 78% between January and June 2020, even when accounting for telehealth visits.Researchers in Oregon found that public sector HIV and bacterial STI testing declined substantially in the state in the wake of COVID related distancing measures but once testing rebounded to a certain extent, primary and secondary syphilis diagnoses increased, “indicating ongoing sexual risk during physical distancing.”
  • ARVs (for treatment and prevention): Data from Gilead, the company supplying ARVs to the majority of people with HIV in the U.S., show that sales for HIV medications (presumably for both prevention and treatment) dropped initially in 2020 and picked up by the end of the year but had not fully recovered.One San Francisco clinic found that the share of patients with viral load suppression declined 30% during the pandemic, suggesting lack of access to or adherence with ARVs.A CDC analysis found that PrEP prescriptions in the U.S. declined 21%, and that there was a 28% drop in new PrEP starts, between March and September 2020, compared to what was expected. Decreases were sharpest for younger people, those paying with cash or using patient assistance programs, and those in certain states.

    Analysis of prescription data from GoodRx point to declines in prescriptions for the medications used for PrEP during early months of the pandemic. While those drugs are also sometimes used for treatment, other non-PrEP treatment drugs saw a smaller, though still detectable decline.  Prescriptions for the medications used for PrEP declined 18% compared to baseline while other drugs used for HIV treatment declined 5% compared to baseline.

In addition, for many with and at risk for HIV, meeting basic needs is a common struggle and for some, this was heighted during the pandemic. There have been reports that some people with HIV and HIV service organizations faced delays in access to food and financial assistance during the pandemic. Lack of basic security for key resources such as food, housing, and economic stability, can undermine people’s ability to access and engage in HIV care, treatment, and prevention.

This work was supported in part by the Elton John AIDS Foundation. We value our funders. KFF maintains full editorial control over all of its policy analysis, polling, and journalism activities.

  1. CDC/HRSA Advisory Committee on HIV, Viral Hepatitis and STD Prevention and Treatment (CHAC). April 20, 2021. Presentation by Dr. Jonathan Mermin. ↩︎
News Release

New Campaign from THE CONVERSATION / LA CONVERSACIÓN Responds to Information Needs about COVID-19 Vaccines Among Latinos and Spanish-speaking People in U.S.

Latinx Doctors, Nurses and Promotoras Featured in Latest Installment of KFF’s Public Information Response to COVID-19, Presented with UnidosUS

Published: May 20, 2021

News Release

May 20, 2021THE CONVERSATION / LA CONVERSACIÓN expands to address information needs about the COVID-19 vaccines in the Latinx community with new videos featuring doctors, nurses and promotoras (community health workers) in English and Spanish. This installment of the campaign is produced by KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation) under its Greater Than COVID public information response and presented with UnidosUS.

THE CONVERSATION / LA CONVERSACIÓN campaign—and our efforts with the UnidosUS Esperanza Hope for All campaign—use trusted voices to send the message that the vaccines are our best chance at getting back to our lives. But we need more support to make sure everyone can get a vaccine as a new report from our friends at KFF shows.  Unvaccinated Latinos want to get the vaccine but face obstacles such as not having access to paid leave, being asked by vaccine providers for sensitive information that increases barriers to getting more Americans vaccinated, or hard to access vaccination sites.  We need to reaffirm that COVID-19 vaccines are free and available to ALL, regardless of immigration status or access to health insurance and we also urge that sites are put in places where Latinos are: schools, workplaces, and community centers across the country,” said UnidosUS President and CEO Janet Murguía.

The new messaging comes at a critical time with vaccines now authorized for individuals 12 and older. Even as vaccine availability expands, concerns about equitable distribution remain with most states reporting that Hispanic, as well as Black, populations, have received smaller shares of vaccinations relative to their population size to date.

Recent findings from the KFF COVID Vaccine Monitor shows strong interest from many Hispanic adults in getting vaccinated as soon as possible, indicating an opportunity for increased outreach and information. Health care providers, especially those representing the community, have consistently been shown to be the most trusted and preferred resources for information about the vaccines.

“Unvaccinated Hispanic adults are much more likely to want to get vaccinated than other adults and THE CONVERSATION/LA CONVERSACIÓN provides a platform for trusted messengers to build on interest in the Latino community in getting vaccinated,” said KFF President and CEO Drew Altman.

Eligibility and access issues, as well as questions about vaccine safety and efficacy, are among issues highlighted in more than 75 FAQ videos from Latinx healthcare workers, reflecting some of the most common concerns raised in KFF research.

In addition to providing accessible facts and dispelling misinformation, the health care workers also share their own experiences getting vaccinated, what it meant for them both personally and professionally, as well as their hopes for what it means for the community. “This is about returning to our roots, to our families, to being able to be safe and not live in fear,” says Susana Morales, MD, a primary care doctor in one of the videos included in the campaign. Dr. Morales, who is Vice Chair for Diversity in the Department of Medicine at Weill Cornell Medicine, is one of 10 Latinx health care workers featured in the new campaign.

YouTube provided funding to support development and distribution of the series and both YouTube and Google are providing high visibility promotion on their platforms. Facebook is supporting the campaign as part of a broader effort to amplify trusted voices in communities to help reach people most affected by COVID-19. Twitter and Pinterest are also helping to get out the messaging on their platforms.

Previously released messaging focused on the Black community and featured Black health care workers. This content was presented with the Black Coalition Against COVID and is supported by a broad array of health and community groups.

All content is available rights-free and designed to be shared on social media and can be easily embedded on other organization’s websites. A community toolkit provides additional graphics and promotions to extend reach of the messaging. For more information about THE CONVERSATION / LA CONVERSACIÓN go to: www.BetweenUsAboutUs.org l www.EntreNosotrosSobreNosotros.org www.youtube.com/GreaterThanCOVID

The California Health Care Foundation, California Community Foundation, The California Endowment and Sierra Health Foundation have generously contributed to the production and are supporting distribution of the Latinx series.

UnidosUS, previously known as NCLR (National Council of La Raza), is the nation’s largest Hispanic civil rights and advocacy organization. Through its unique combination of expert research, advocacy, programs, and an Affiliate Network of nearly 300 community-based organizations across the United States and Puerto Rico, UnidosUS simultaneously challenges the social, economic, and political barriers that affect Latinos at the national and local levels. For more than 50 years, UnidosUS has united communities and different groups seeking common ground through collaboration, and that share a desire to make our country stronger. For more information on UnidosUS, visit www.unidosus.org or follow us on FacebookInstagram, and Twitter.

KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation) is a national nonprofit leader in health policy analysis and polling, journalism and social impact media. No affiliation with Kaiser Permanente. Visit the COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor Dashboard, Racial Equity and Health topic page and KHN.

Greater Than COVID is a public information initiative from KFF to help individuals take charge of their health during the evolving COVID-19 public health crisis. Tailored media messages and community tools address information needs about the vaccines.

News Release

Nueva campaña de THE CONVERSATION/LA CONVERSACIÓN responde a las necesidades de información sobre las vacunas para COVID-19 entre latinos e hispanohablantes en los Estados Unidos.

Doctores, enfermeras y promotoras latinas en la nueva entrega de la respuesta de información pública de KFF al COVID-19, presentado con UnidosUS

Published: May 20, 2021

May 20, 2021THE CONVERSATION/LA CONVERSACIÓN se expande para abordar las necesidades de información sobre las vacunas contra el COVID-19 en la comunidad latina con nuevos videos protagonizados por médicos, enfermeras y promotoras (trabajadoras de salud comunitarias) en inglés y español. Esta entrega de la campaña es producida por KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation) a través de su respuesta de información pública Greater Than COVID y presentada con UnidosUS.

“La campaña THE CONVERSATION/LA CONVERSACIÓN —y nuestros esfuerzos con la campaña Esperanza Hope For All— utiliza voces confiables para diseminar el mensaje de que las vacunas son la mejor oportunidad para volver a nuestras vidas. Pero necesitamos más apoyo, para asegurarnos de que todos puedan recibir una vacuna, como muestra un nuevo informe de nuestros amigos de KFF. Los latinos que no están vacunados quieren vacunarse, pero enfrentan obstáculos como no tener licencias pagas, el temor de que los que administran las vacunas les pidan información confidencial que aumentan las barreras para que más estadounidenses se vacunen, o sitios de vacunación a los que es difícil llegar. Necesitamos reafirmar que las vacunas para COVID-19 son gratuitas y que están disponibles para TODOS, independientemente del status migratorio o el acceso a un seguro médico. Y también instamos a que los sitios de vacunación estén en los lugares en donde están los latinos: escuelas, lugares de trabajo y centros comunitarios alrededor de todo el país”, dijo Janet Murguía, presidenta y CEO de UnidosUS.

El nuevo mensaje llega en un momento crítico con las vacunas ahora aprobadas para individuos de 12 años en adelante. Incluso a medida que la disponibilidad de vacunas aumenta, las preocupaciones sobre la distribución equitativa continúan, y la mayoría de los estados informan que, hasta la fecha, las poblaciones hispanas, así como las comunidades negras han recibido proporciones menores de vacunas en relación con el tamaño de la población.

Los hallazgos recientes del COVID Vaccine Monitor de KFF muestran que muchos adultos hispanos tienen un gran interés en vacunarse lo antes posible, lo que indica una oportunidad para aumentar la divulgación y la información. Los proveedores de atención médica, especialmente los que representan a la comunidad, han demostrado de manera constante ser los recursos más confiables y preferidos para obtener información sobre las vacunas.

“Los adultos hispanos no vacunados tienen muchas más probabilidades de querer vacunarse que otros adultos y THE CONVERSATION/LA CONVERSACIÓN proporciona una plataforma para que los mensajeros confiables generen el interés de la comunidad latina en vacunarse”, dijo Drew Altman, presidente y CEO de KFF.

Los problemas de elegibilidad y acceso, así como las preguntas sobre la seguridad y eficacia de las vacunas, se encuentran entre los temas destacados en más de 75 videos de trabajadores de salud latinos sobre preguntas frecuentes, que reflejan algunas de las preocupaciones más comunes planteadas en la investigación de KFF.

Además de proporcionar datos accesibles y disipar información errónea, los trabajadores de salud también comparten sus propias experiencias al vacunarse, lo que significó para ellos tanto personal como profesionalmente, así como sus esperanzas de lo que significa para la comunidad.

“Se trata de regresar a nuestras raíces, a nuestras familias, a poder estar seguros y no vivir con miedo”, dice la doctora Susana Morales (MD), médica de atención primaria, en uno de los videos incluidos en la campaña. La doctora Morales, quien es vicepresidenta para diversidad del Departamento de Medicina de Weill Cornell Medicine, es una de los 10 trabajadores de salud latinos que aparecen en la nueva campaña.

YouTube proporcionó fondos para apoyar el desarrollo y la distribución de la serie, y tanto YouTube como Google están brindando promoción de alta visibilidad en sus plataformas. Facebook apoya la campaña como parte de un esfuerzo más amplio para amplificar las voces confiables en las comunidades para ayudar a llegar a las personas más afectadas por COVID-19. Twitter y Pinterest también están ayudando a difundir los mensajes en sus plataformas.

Los mensajes lanzados anteriormente se centraron en la comunidad negra y presentaron a trabajadores de la salud negros. Este contenido fue presentado con la Black Coalition Against COVID y recibió apoyo de una amplia gama de grupos comunitarios y de salud.

Todo el contenido está disponible libre de derechos y está diseñado para ser compartido en las redes sociales, y puede integrarse fácilmente en los sitios web de otras organizaciones. Un kit de herramientas comunitarias proporciona gráficos y promociones adicionales para ampliar el alcance del mensaje.

Para más información sobre THE CONVERSATION/LA CONVERSACIÓN visite:

www.BetweenUsAboutUs.org l www.EntreNosotrosSobreNosotros.org

http://www.youtube.com/GreaterThanCOVID

La California Health Care Foundation, California Community Foundation, The California Endowment y Sierra Health Foundation han contribuído generosamente con esta producción y están apoyando la distribución de la serie para latinos.

UnidosUS, anteriormente conocido como NCLR (Consejo Nacional de La Raza), es la organización de abogacía y defensa de los derechos civiles hispanos más grande del país. A través de su combinación única de investigación experta, promoción, programas y una red de afiliados de casi 300 organizaciones comunitarias en los Estados Unidos y Puerto Rico, UnidosUS desafía simultáneamente las barreras sociales, económicas y políticas que afectan a los latinos a nivel nacional y local. Por más de 50 años, UnidosUS ha unido comunidades y diferentes grupos que buscan un espacio común a través de la colaboración, y que comparten el deseo de fortalecer nuestro país. Para obtener más información sobre UnidosUS, visite www.unidosus.org o síganos en FacebookInstagram, y Twitter.

KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation) es una organización nacional sin fines de lucro líder en análisis y encuestas de políticas de salud, periodismo y medios de impacto social. No tiene afiliación con Kaiser Permanente. Visite el COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor Dashboard, Racial Equity and Health topic page y KHN.

Greater Than COVID es una iniciativa de información pública de KFF para ayudar a las personas a hacerse cargo de su salud durante la evolución de la crisis de salud pública del COVID-19. Sus mensajes personalizados para los medios y herramientas comunitarias abordan las necesidades de información sobre las vacunas.

Poll Finding

Post-Mortem On KFF 2020 Election Polling

Published: May 19, 2021

Findings

Digging Back Into The Sun Belt Voices Project

In early fall 2020, KFF in collaboration with the Cook Political Report conducted the Sun Belt Voices Project which included interviews with a random sample of 3,479 registered voters in three Sun Belt states (1,298 in Arizona, 1,009 in Florida, and 1,172 in North Carolina). Relying on an innovative probability-based approach of contacting registered voters sampled from voter registration files and allowing respondents to participate online or over the telephone, the project had two main goals, 1) to provide insights into the attitudes and experiences of voters in three key states for the 2020 presidential election; and 2) examine the issues that resonate with and motivate voters in state s in which shifting population characteristics are resulting in increasing Democratic vote shares in more traditionally Republican region of the U.S..

The original report released on September 17, 2020 found most voters had made up their minds about who they were going to vote for with more than six weeks before the official Election Day and that President Trump was a motivating force for both voters who intended to vote for the former President as well as those who were planning on voting for now-President Biden.

Now, more than nine months after we conducted the survey and six months after the 2020 presidential election, we are looking back into the data we collected and matching it with actual voter records from Election Day to better understand the demographics of voters who cast ballots during this election. By matching the original sample file from L2, including those who participated in the survey as well as those who were contacted to participate but did not, with the updated voting records from the 2020 election, this new analysis examines whether voters’ planned intentions to vote match their actual turnout in the 2020 presidential election. In addition, it does a deep dive into better understanding the demographics and views of the new 2020 voters who did not vote in the 2016 election. These voters fall into two categories: low propensity voters (those who were eligible to vote in 2016 but chose not to) and newly eligible voters, for whom the 2020 election is the first general election for which they are at least 18 years old.

Finally, this analysis examines whether the sampling methodology used in this project can help researchers better understand how the polling field can adapt to reach voters missed by traditional polling methodologies, a problem that contributed to underestimates of President Trump’s vote margins across key states in pre-election polling.

Executive Summary

The 2020 presidential election was unlike any other election in U.S. history. It was held in the middle of a global pandemic as the nation grappled with issues around the coronavirus, police violence against black Americans, and an uncertain economy. In an effort to address concerns about voting in-person, many states expanded access to early voting and absentee (mail-in) ballots and after all of the votes were counted, it was the highest voter turnout in more than a decade.

One of the major narratives out of the 2020 election, especially in the absence of a decision on Election Night, was that pre-election polls incorrectly estimated the support for President Trump in key battleground states. While the Sun Belt Voices Project was conducted more than six weeks prior to the election and was not designed to estimate support for the presidential candidates, our goal in this analysis was to examine whether the polls we conducted in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina misgauged voters’ opinions and experiences leading up to Election Day. By linking the data we collected from the survey with voter records, we can better understand which voters chose to cast ballots in the 2020 election and whether their views and experiences were different than those who chose not to vote.

Several theories have arisen to explain why both the national polling average and state polling averages in the weeks leading up to the presidential election underestimated President Trump’s vote share. The first is turnout. In a high turnout election, it is more difficult for pollsters to predict who is going to show up to vote as you can’t rely on past voting behavior. Our analysis finds one-third of 2020 general election voters in our sample are “new” voters, that is they did not vote in the 2016 presidential election. This includes one quarter (26%) of total voters who were low propensity voters – voters who had been eligible in 2016 (at least 22 years old in 2020) but did not vote in 2016, and an additional 6% who were newly eligible to vote.

Tied to turnout is the role of Hispanic voters in the 2020 election. Our analysis finds a disproportionate share of Hispanic voters are in the low propensity voter group as over one-third of Hispanic voters who were eligible in 2016, but chose not to vote, chose to vote in 2020 (an additional 12% of Hispanic voters were newly eligible for this historic election). This may be due to increased access to absentee (mail voting) in Florida and North Carolina. Overall, a slightly larger share of new 2020 voters said they voted absentee (through the mail) with seven in ten (72%) low propensity voters taking advantage of absentee voting, and an additional one in five voted early in person. Our analysis finds neither political party had an advantage among the low propensity voters, but the Democratic Party did have a slight advantage among the newly eligible voters.

In the 2016 election, there was some evidence that many late deciding voters went disproportionately for President Trump in key battleground states. Overwhelmingly, self-reported turnout and enthusiasm matched what voters ended up doing in the 2020 election. The vast majority (91%) of voters who voted in the 2020 election reported they were “absolutely certain to vote” back in September and many Sun Belt voters who decided not to vote in the 2020 election had previously reported they were less motivated to vote and were “undecided” about their vote choice. While some of these voters did choose to cast a ballot, our analysis finds they were not disproportionately Republican or viewed President Trump more favorably. In fact, most of them identified as political independents.

What is clear in our analysis and others’ is that polls are missing a certain segment of voters who disproportionately supported President Trump. There has not been any evidence of “shy Trump voters” (voters who support President Trump may not be honest about their support for him either to purposely mislead researchers or because of a social desirability desire) in analyses of both the 2016 election and the 2020 election, and our results are similar. Voters who participated in the 2020 KFF/Cook Political Report Sun Belt Voices are representative of the demographics of all voters who voted in the 2020 election (in terms of education, race and ethnicity, and political partisanship), and those who chose to complete the survey online were no more likely to state support for President Trump. Yet, we strongly believe there is more work to do in better understand how polling’s failure to include or appropriately weight for a certain group of voters produced error that could explain a large portion of the polling error during the 2020 election and could have implications in future polls, both pre-election polls and others.

Key Findings

  • One-third (32%) of 2020 general election voters in Florida, North Carolina and Arizona are “new” voters, that is they did not vote in the 2016 presidential election. This includes one quarter (26%) of total voters who were low propensity voters—voters who had been eligible in 2016 (at least 22 years old in 2020) but did not vote in 2016, and an additional 6% who were newly eligible to vote.
  • Half (47%) of the Hispanic voters in Arizona, Florida, or North Carolina who cast their ballots in the 2020 election did not vote in 2016. This includes one-third of Hispanic voters who were eligible in 2016, but chose not to vote, and an additional 12% who were newly eligible for this historic election. One in three White (28%) and Black (30%) voters and in the three states had not voted in 2016.
  • Increased access to absentee or mail voting as well as early in-person voting was a key element in the 2020 election and may have both mitigated some concerns about exposure to coronavirus while voting and modestly expanded access to some groups that had not previously voted. Two-thirds of 2020 voters who participated in the Sun Belt Voices Project cast absentee ballots while the remaining shares either voted early in-person (22%) or voted in-person on Election Day (11%). A slightly larger share of new 2020 voters said they voted absentee (through the mail) with seven in ten (72%) low propensity voters taking advantage of absentee voting, and an additional one in five voted early in person.
  • Unlike the 2016 election, no major news event drastically impacted voters’ motivations or intentions during the last weeks of the 2020 presidential campaign. Many Sun Belt voters who decided not to vote in the 2020 election had previously reported they were “undecided” about who they were planning to vote for in the presidential election, and two in ten (22%) of them reported being “less motivated” to vote in 2020 compared to 2016 (compared to 6% of voters who voted in 2020), as well as said their chances of voting in the 2020 election were 50-50 or less. On the flip side, 91% of voters who voted in the 2020 election reported they were “absolutely certain to vote” back in September.
  • There were some late deciders in the KFF/Cook Political Report Sun Belt Voices pollingMore than three-fourths of voters who reported being “undecided” about who they would cast their ballot for in their responses to the Sun Belt Voices Projectconducted in early September ended up voting in the 2020 presidential election. While we do not know which candidate they chose to vote for, our analysis finds that half of these undecided voters identify as political independents (53%), 27% identify as Republicans or Republican-leaning independents and 20% identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. In addition, nearly six in ten (59%) held favorable views of Democratic candidate Biden at the time of the poll compared to 46% who held favorable views of President Trump. One-fourth of these voters had favorable views of both candidates.
  • The voters who participated in the 2020 the KFF/Cook Political Report Sun Belt Voices are representative of the demographics of all voters who voted in the 2020 election. However in each state, the poll underestimated support for President Trump. This analysis provides some insight into better mining of voter files to better understand who we missed in our polling and how to better reach these voters in all of KFF polling going forward.

Who Actually Voted?

According to the United States Election Project, 2020 was a high turnout election in each of the three states included in the Sun Belt Voices Project with 65.3% of voters in Arizona voting in the presidential election, 71.2% of Florida voters, and 71.2% of North Carolina voters. Participating in a pre-election poll is strongly correlated with actual voting in an election and this holds true in this project. Ninety-three percent of survey respondents voted in the 2020 election including 93% of Arizona participants, 94% of Florida participants, and 94% of North Carolina voters. If we expand this analysis to our entire sample (including those who were contacted but did not participate in the survey), three-fourths of all voters who were contacted to participate voted in the 2020 election.1 

Who Were The New Voters In 2020?

The 2020 election saw a surge of new voters, with a record breaking 159 million Americans voting in the general election compared to 138 million votes just four years earlier. This surge can likely be attributed to a combination of things, including the increased access with many states allowing ballots to be cast by mail for the first time and waves of political activism. This analysis of our Sun Belt Voices Project look at one segment of new voters – those voters who stayed home in 2016, despite being eligible to vote, but chose to cast a ballot in 2020. One quarter (26%) of the voters in the 2020 general election in Florida, North Carolina and Arizona were low propensity voters—voters who had been eligible in 2016 (at least 22 years old in 2020) but did not vote in 2016.2 

A lot of attention around the 2020 election was given to Hispanic voter turnout, as some polls underestimated Hispanic support for incumbent Donald Trump. According to our analysis, one-third of Hispanic 2020 voters were low propensity voters, meaning they turned out to vote in 2020 but did not in 2016. If we include those who were newly eligible due to age, half of Hispanic voters (47%) who voted in 2020 in Arizona, Florida, or North Carolina had not voted in the previous presidential election. About one quarter White (24%) and Black (25%) 2020 voters were low propensity voters. About half (53%) of Hispanic voters voted in both the 2020 and 2016 election, compared to seven in ten Black (70%) and White (72%) 2020 voters.

According to this analysis, neither political party had the advantage among this group of new 2020 voters, with about one quarter Democratic voters and one in five Republican voters being in this low propensity category, however the Democratic Party did have a slight advantage among newly eligible 2020 voters. Eight percent of 2020 Democratic voters were newly eligible, meaning they recently turned 18 and were able to vote in their first presidential election, compared to 4 percent of 2020 Republican voters.

Three in ten (28%) of younger adults who had been eligible to vote in 2016 (ages 22 to 29) voted for the first time in 2020. Those ages 65 and older were least likely to be low propensity voters, with about one in six (17%) of these voters not voting in 2016 as well.

In Arizona and North Carolina, around four in ten low propensity 2020 voters (who had been previously eligible to vote but had not) had said they were “definitely going to vote” for President Biden, compared to about three in ten who said they same about Donald Trump. In Florida, these low propensity voters were divided in their support for each candidate. Leading up to the election, our polling similarly found Hispanic voters in Florida were more divided in candidate support.

How Did Voters cast their Ballots?

While voting by mail in Arizona was a widely used practice before the 2020 election, it was less common in Florida and only become available in North Carolina leading up to the 2020 election. Two-thirds of 2020 voters who participated in the Sun Belt Voices Project cast absentee ballots while the remaining shares either voted early in-person (22%) or vote in-person on Election Day (11%).

One of the major focuses of 2020 pre-election polls was to gauge how voters planned on casting their ballots during a global pandemic. Our analysis found that for many voters, their actual voting method did not exactly match their self-reported plans on voting method back in September. For example, while four in ten of those who ended up voting absentee said this was their intention, one in five had planned to either vote early in-person (19%) or had planned to vote in-person on Election Day (22%). Three-fourths of those who voted in-person had planned to do so back in September (77%) while those who voted early in-person had previously intended to vote various ways including in-person on Election Day (32%), by absentee (20%), or as they did – early in-person (38%).

While we do not know why many voters did not vote in the way they had planned to back in September, our analysis finds larger shares of voters across both political party and within different racial and ethnic groups decided to vote absentee than they had originally planned. Half (48%) of Democratic voters and one in four (23%) Republican voters had said they would vote absentee, while three in four Democrats (74%) and six in ten (62%) of Republicans actually voted using an absentee ballot. In addition, considerably larger shares of White voters, Black voters, and Hispanic voters voted absentee than originally planned to back in September.

This increase in the share of voters who voted absentee from who intended to vote absentee back in September may be due to an increase in trust in mail-in voting over the course of the 2020 election as well as increased access to absentee voting in the Florida and North Carolina.

Nearly seven in ten (69%) of new 2020 voters voted absentee (through the mail). Seven in ten (72%) low propensity voters took advantage of absentee voting, and an additional one in five voted early in person. Eight percent of low propensity 2020 voters voted in person on election day. Compared to low propensity voters, a slightly smaller share of total voters voted absentee. Early and absentee voting may have expanded accessibility, leading to an increase in voting among groups that had not previously voted.

Motivation And Intention Of Voters, New Voters and Non-Voters

Our analysis allows us to provide some insights into the views of voters who decided not to vote in the 2020 election, and it does not appear that anything happened in the last weeks of the 2020 presidential campaign that drastically impacted voters’ motivations or intentions. When we look at the 229 voters who participated in the Sun Belt Voices survey but who ended up not voting in the 2020 election, we find six weeks prior to Election Day about one-fifth (22%) of them had said they were “undecided” about who they were planning to vote for in the presidential election, compared to 9% of those who voted in the 2020 election. In addition, 22% of non-voters also said they were “less motivated” to vote in 2020 compared to 2016 (compared to 6% of voters who voted in 2020), as well as said their chances of voting in the 2020 election were 50-50 or less. One in four (26%) of these 2020 non-voters voted in 2016 compared to 68% of 2020 voters. Majorities of both groups (voters who voted and those who did not) said they were voting for a specific candidate and were enthusiastic about their vote choice.

On the other hand, 91% of voters who voted in the 2020 election reported they were “absolutely certain to vote” back in September and 78% of them reported being enthusiastic about their vote choice for either President Biden or President Trump.

Worries about voter suppression, voter fraud, or technical problems were not strong factors in voters’ decisions on whether or not to vote. In addition, it appears concerns around the coronavirus did not drastically impact decisions to vote, maybe due to the expanded access to mail voting, with similar shares of voters and non-voters saying they were worried they may be exposed to coronavirus while voting.

Looking again at low propensity voters who ended up voting in the 2020 general election, one reason for this decision can be attributed to enthusiasm about their vote choice (86%) and higher motivation to vote compared to 2016 levels (66%).

Who Were the Late Deciders?

Yet, while motivation to vote for a specific candidate is a strong predictor of the likelihood that a voter would cast a ballot, more than three-fourths of voters who reported being “undecided” in their responses to the Sun Belt Voices Project conducted in early September ended up voting in the 2020 presidential election.

While we do not know which candidate they chose to vote for, our analysis finds that half of these undecided voters identify as political independents (53%), one quarter (27%) identify as Republicans or Republican-leaning independents and one in five (20%) identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. In addition, among the group of initial undecided voters who ended up casting a vote in the 2020 presidential election, nearly six in ten (59%) held favorable views of Democratic candidate Biden at the time of the poll compared to 46% who held favorable views of President Trump. One-fourth of these voters approved of both President Trump and now-President Biden back in September.

What Motivated Voters In 2020?

When you examine the motivations and attitudes of voters who voted in the 2020 election, the top issues for voters are the same as we reported in the initial Sun Belt Voices Project analysis. The economy was the most important issue in deciding their vote for president, followed by criminal justice and policing, the coronavirus outbreak, health care, race relations, and immigration.

Similarly, low propensity voters said that economy was the most important issue in deciding their vote for president (32%), followed by the coronavirus outbreak (17%), criminal justice and policing (15%), health care (14%), race relations (13%), and immigration (5%).

This analysis also finds that the candidates’ advantages on key electoral issues among voters match their advantages in our pre-election polling as well as our analysis of the AP VoteCast data. Across most issues leading up to the 2020 general election, President Biden had the advantage among both voters who cast their ballot for the first time and overall 2020 voters; the economy is the exception with President Trump having the advantage on this issue with both sets of voters (+6 percentage points among low propensity voters and +8 percentage points among all 2020 voters).

Low propensity voters trusted Biden by larger margins, saying they trust Joe Biden to handle health care (+11 percentage points, +8 percentage points among all 2020 voters), race relations (+21 percentage points, +15 percentage points among all 2020 voters), the coronavirus outbreak (+16 percentage points, +9 percentage points among all 2020 voters), immigration (+9 percentage points, +2 percentage points among all 2020 voters) and criminal justice and policing (+5 percentage points, +2 percentage points among all 2020 voters).

How Did Our Methodology Do In Representing Voters?

One of the main narratives out of the 2020 election cycle was that public opinion polls underestimated support for President Trump in key states, including the three states included in the Sun Belt Voices Project. While the KFF/Cook Political Report partnership project was conducted more than a month prior to the election and was not designed to determine which candidate was leading in each of the key states, it is also our intention to ensure that the voters included in our sample are representative of the voters who ended up voting in the 2020 election.

Our methodology was designed in an effort to account for many of the deficits of polling from the 2016 presidential election. We started by generating a probability-based sample among all registered voters in each of the three states, contacting 31,500 voters (10,500 in each state) to participate in this project. We added extra incentives and outreach for key voting groups who had historically been underrepresented in election polls including Republicans, white voters without a college degree, and Hispanic voters. We allowed voters to participate in the survey using their preferred mode (online or over the phone), collecting responses from 1,298 voters in Arizona, 1,009 voters in Florida, and 1,172 voters in North Carolina. Finally, during the weighting stage, we adjusted the data so that Republicans and Democrats were represented in proportion to their share of the voter population as well as both 2016 and 2018 voter turnout in order to account for any additional partisan nonresponse bias.

Our analysis finds that these extra efforts as well as post-stratification weighting did a good job at estimating partisan turnout, turnout among Black and Hispanic voters, and correctly gauging the share of non-college educated white voters who voted in 2020. When we limit the analysis to just those who voted in the 2020 election (3,250 voters who participated in the survey and 24,468 voters who we contacted to participate), we find no meaningful differences by race/ethnicity, education, or partisanship among our weighted results to the entire sample of Sun Belt Voices voters.

In addition to this, our analysis finds both the mode and the sampling frame didn’t result in demographically different groups of voters. Samples from both the online completes and listed phone numbers in the Sun Belt Voices Project were similar to voters overall, with one third being Democrats or Republicans, and similarly distributed across education levels and race and ethnicity. Despite this, in each of the three states, our original Sun Belt Voices data overestimated Biden’s advantage in the states ranging from 3 percentage point difference in North Carolina to 5 percentage points in Arizona underestimating voter preference for President Trump. This is regardless of whether we limit our analysis to just voters who turned out in the 2020 election, those who participated in the survey online, or those who had listed phone numbers in their voter file records.

As pollsters prepare for the 2022 election cycle, more work is needed to better understand how polling’s failure to include or appropriately weight for a certain group of voters produced error that could explain a large portion of the polling error during the 2020 election. A lot of this work is already being done and was presented at the 2021 AAPOR Conference last week but as of now, there are still more lingering questions to be answered.

Endnotes

  1. Individual voter turnout data for both respondents in the Sun Belt Voices Project and the entire Sun Belt Voices sample was provided by L2 with the assistance of SSRS. ↩︎
  2. Respondents to the poll supplied their age at the time they took the survey in late August to early September 2020, but not their birth date. Because of this, 15 respondents who were under 22 years old at the time they completed the survey and voted in the 2016 election were dropped from this analysis. ↩︎
News Release

More Than 1 in 4 Medicare Beneficiaries Had a Telehealth Visit Between the Summer and Fall of 2020

Over Half Who Had a Telehealth Visit Used Only a Telephone

Published: May 19, 2021

As the coronavirus pandemic kept people home last year, just over 1 in 4 Medicare beneficiaries had a telehealth visit with a doctor or other health professional between the summer and fall of 2020, a new KFF analysis finds.

Once limited to beneficiaries living in rural areas, coverage of telehealth services by traditional Medicare has undergone rapid expansion during the pandemic, with new options including allowing some services to be provided via audio-only telephone. Medicare Advantage plans have been able to offer additional telehealth benefits not covered by traditional Medicare outside of the public health emergency, and virtually all do. However, coverage of telehealth services under traditional Medicare would revert to the more limited availability when the public health emergency ends without a change in current rules.

The new analysis provides an overview of the pandemic-driven changes to Medicare’s coverage of telehealth, examines community-dwelling beneficiaries’ use of telehealth services, and discusses issues related to extending telehealth coverage under traditional Medicare beyond the public health emergency.

The new analysis provides an overview of the pandemic-driven changes to Medicare’s coverage of telehealth, examines community-dwelling beneficiaries’ use of telehealth services, and discusses issues related to extending telehealth coverage under traditional Medicare beyond the public health emergency.

The new analysis provides an overview of the pandemic-driven changes to Medicare’s coverage of telehealth, examines community-dwelling beneficiaries’ use of telehealth services, and discusses issues related to extending telehealth coverage under traditional Medicare beyond the public health emergency.

Among the key findings:

• Nearly two-thirds (64%, or 33.6 million) of Medicare beneficiaries with a usual source of care say that their provider currently offers telehealth appointments, up from 18% who said their provider offered telehealth before the pandemic. However, nearly a quarter (23%) of Medicare beneficiaries do not know if their provider offers telehealth appointments, and this share is larger among rural beneficiaries (30%).

• Among Medicare beneficiaries who said their provider offers telehealth, some groups of beneficiaries were more likely than others to report having a telehealth visit with a doctor or other health professional, including Medicare beneficiaries under age 65 with long-term disabilities, Black and Hispanic beneficiaries, Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in both Medicare and Medicaid, and beneficiaries with multiple chronic conditions. At the same time, there was no difference in reported rates of telehealth use between beneficiaries in traditional Medicare and Medicare Advantage.

• A majority (56%) of Medicare beneficiaries who had a telehealth visit report accessing care using only a telephone, while a smaller share had a telehealth visit via video (28%) or both video and telephone (16%).

A number of telehealth-related bills have been introduced in the 117th Congress, including proposals to make permanent the telehealth expansions provided during the public health emergency, expand Medicare coverage of mental health services, and expand the scope of providers eligible for payment for telehealth services covered by Medicare. Other bills are aimed at assessing the impact of expanded telehealth services on the quality of patient care and program spending.

For more data and analyses on telehealth and the pandemic, visit kff.org.