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Number of States Affected by Key Medicaid Provisions in the 2025 Reconciliation Law

Which States Will Be Affected by Key Medicaid Provisions in the 2025 Reconciliation Law?

The 2025 reconciliation law makes sweeping changes to Medicaid that will affect every state through key eligibility and financing changes, including new work requirements, immigrant eligibility restrictions, and changes to provider taxes and state directed payments. This issue brief explains which states will be affected by each of these key provisions.

Medicaid work requirements

Nebraska Renewal Outcomes Among Individuals Subject to Medicaid Work Requirements

Early Medicaid Work Requirement Insights From Nebraska

This brief describes the verification process for Medicaid work requirements in Nebraska and examines early data on outcomes for individuals subject to work requirements. Among Medicaid enrollees renewing coverage under Nebraska's work requirements, 93% met the requirements or qualified for an exemption —while 7% lost coverage.

Tracking Implementation of the 2025 Reconciliation Law: Medicaid Work Requirements

KFF’s interactive tracks key data and policies that will affect how states implement Medicaid work requirements, which are required under the 2025 budget reconciliation law starting in January 2027. The tracker includes state-level data on Medicaid enrollment and renewal outcomes as well as current state enrollment and renewal policies. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the 2025 reconciliation law will increase the number of people who are uninsured in 2034 by 10 million. Coverage losses from Medicaid work requirements account for over half, or 5.3 million, of the increase in the number of uninsured.

understanding medicaid

Medicaid Financing: The Basics

Medicaid represents $1 out of every $5 spent on health care in the U.S. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

Medicaid and Provider Taxes

This brief explores how rules governing provider taxes are changing because of the 2025 reconciliation law and the regulations implementing that law, and summarizes which changes may affect each state.

5 Key Facts About Medicaid and Hospitals

This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

Medicaid home Care

Medicaid Home Care/HCBS Survey

Since 2001, KFF has administered regular surveys of states about their Medicaid home- and community-based services (HCBS) programs. The survey is sent to officials administering Medicaid HCBS programs in all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

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  • A quote in green text against a white background reads, "The math is conclusive: Major cuts to Medicaid are the only way to meet the House’s budget resolution requirements. There are a myriad of options available for cutting Medicaid, but all of them would leave the states facing  difficult choices to raise revenues or cut spending."

    The Math is Conclusive: Major Medicaid Cuts Are the Only Way to Meet House Budget Resolution Requirements

    Quick Insights

    The CBO letter confirms early expectations, finding that over the next 10 years, 93% of non-Medicare spending in the E&C [House Energy & Commerce Committee] jurisdiction is from the federal share of Medicaid spending…Even if E&C eliminated all non-Medicaid and CHIP spending, the committee would need to cut federal spending on Medicaid and CHIP by well over $700 billion, nearly 10% of projected spending.

  • 5 Key Facts About Medicaid and Hospitals

    Issue Brief

    We explain the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • Trump Voters On Medicaid, On Medicaid Cuts

    From Drew Altman

    In a new column, KFF President and CEO Drew Altman discusses how recent KFF focus groups with Trump voters on Medicaid show that voters were not expecting big Medicaid cuts from the Trump administration and worry about what the impact of potential cuts in federal Medicaid spending will be. As Drew writes: “Trump built a populist base of working people formerly in the Democratic party.” When details of specific Medicaid cuts emerge, tension could develop…

  • Capping Per Enrollee Spending Could Reduce Federal Medicaid Expenditures by $532 billion to Nearly $1 Trillion Over 10 Years Depending on How States Respond and Result in as Many as 15 Million People Losing Medicaid Coverage by 2034

    News Release

    As Congress considers ways to cut Medicaid spending to help finance the extension of federal tax cuts, a new KFF analysis finds that imposing a cap on federal spending per Medicaid enrollee—known as a “per capita cap”—could trigger a decrease in federal Medicaid spending over a 10-year period of $532 billion to almost $1 trillion, depending on how states respond to the cuts. An estimated 15 million people could lose Medicaid coverage by 2034, if…

  • A Medicaid Per Capita Cap: State by State Estimates

    Issue Brief

    This analysis examines the potential impacts on states, Medicaid enrollees, and providers of implementing a per capita cap on federal Medicaid spending, which is one proposal that has been discussed in Congress. Such a plan could decrease federal Medicaid spending by $532 billion to almost $1 trillion over a 10-year period, depending on how states respond. An estimated 15 million people could lose Medicaid coverage by 2034.

  • The Debate Over Federal Medicaid Cuts: Perspectives of Medicaid Enrollees Who Voted for President Trump and Vice President Harris

    Report

    The Republican-led Congress is considering plans to cut Medicaid to help pay for tax cuts, with the House budget resolution targeting $880 billion or more in potential reductions to federal Medicaid spending. To better understand the experiences of Medicaid enrollees and their perceptions of potential changes to the program, KFF conducted five virtual focus groups in January, including three groups with participants who had voted for President Trump in the 2024 election and two groups…

  • What Does the Federal Government Spend on Health Care?

    Issue Brief

    As Congressional Republicans and President Trump search for trillions of dollars in cuts to mandatory federal spending that could help offset the cost of extending expiring tax cuts, this brief analyzes current support from the federal government for health programs and services, including both spending and tax subsidies as context for those federal budget discussions.

  • 5 Key Facts About Medicaid Coverage for Adults with Mental Illness

    Issue Brief

    Nationwide, an estimated 52 million nonelderly adults live with mental illness, and Medicaid covers nearly one in three (29%) of them, or about 15 million adults. More than 1 in 3 Medicaid enrollees has a mental illness. Mental health treatment rates for Medicaid adults are higher than or similar to those with insurance.

  • 5 Key Facts About Immigrants and Medicaid

    Issue Brief

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.