News Release

Recent Increases in Firearm Deaths of Children and Adolescents Have Been Driven by Gun Assaults, Black Youths Are Disproportionally Affected

Published: Feb 22, 2024

A new KFF analysis of provisional 2022 data from the Centers for Disease Control shows that the recent increases in firearm death rates among children and adolescents ages 17 and under were driven largely by gun assaults, which accounted for 66% of firearm deaths among young people in 2022, up from 54% in 2019.

Data also show that in 2022, seven children ages 17 and below per day died by firearm, similar to 2021. This caps a decade in which firearm death rates gradually rose until 2017, then slowed through 2019 before climbing sharply by 46% from 2019 to 2022. 

From 2012 to 2022, nearly 19,700 children ages 17 and younger died by firearm. The analysis shows that both the national rise in overall firearm-related deaths and those specifically involving gun assaults have disproportionately affected Black and Hispanic children and adolescents. In 2022, the rate of firearm deaths among Black youth was 12.2 deaths per 100,000 people – higher than any other racial and ethnic group and six times higher than White youth.

Additionally, since the onset of the pandemic, the gap in gun assault death rates between Black and White children and adolescents has significantly widened. As a result of worsening trends in firearm deaths, in 2022, Black youth accounted for 48% of all youth firearm deaths although they made up only 14% of the U.S. youth population. Exposure to gun violence disproportionately impacts Black youth and gun violence exposure is linked to poor mental health and substance use outcomes.

Overall, as in 2021, more children and adolescents in the U.S. now die by firearms than from any other single cause, including motor vehicle crashes. Compared to its peer countries, the U.S. has by far the highest rate of child and teen firearm mortality. 

Other key findings include:

  • Male children and adolescents are over four times more likely than their female peers to die by firearm. From 2018 to 2022, the rate of deaths due to firearms increased by 50% among male children and adolescents but remained lower and stable among females.
  • Among child and adolescent firearm deaths in 2022, 27% were due to suicides and 5% were accidental. Suicides by firearm have increased over the past decade among children and adolescents, peaking in 2021 with 827 deaths before declining to 686 deaths in 2022.
  • Firearm death rates among children and adolescents vary by state; however, almost all states have seen a growth in these death rates in pandemic years. Louisiana, Mississippi, and the District of Columbia were the states or areas with the highest firearm death rates among children and adolescents, while Massachusetts, New Jersey, and New York were the states with the lowest. 
  • Exposure to gun violence is linked to post-traumatic stress disorder and anxiety, in addition to other mental health concerns among youth. Gun violence may also lead to challenges with school performance, including increased absenteeism and difficulty concentrating.
News Release

What the Data Show: Abortions Later in Pregnancy 

Published: Feb 21, 2024

Following recent news about former President Trump’s potential support for a national 16-week abortion ban, KFF examines the data about how often abortions later in pregnancy occur, exploring the potential reasons why, and detailing the various laws that regulate access to abortions later in pregnancy.

The updated analysis considers 2021 CDC data, before the Dobbs decision, in a post-Dobbs policy landscape. The analysis shows that abortions at or after 21 weeks are uncommon and represent 1% of all abortions in the U.S. Ninety-six percent occurred at or before 15 weeks gestation, while 3% occurred from 16 to 20 weeks gestation.

Notably, discussions about abortions occurring later in pregnancy are often fraught with misinformation; in fact, abortions occurring “moments before birth” or even “after birth” are illegal in the U.S. and do not occur.

KFF also looks at the other issues with abortions later in pregnancy, including the expense of the procedures, which often require travel and lost wages, and the lack of availability given that they are only performed by a fraction of abortion providers. Additionally, KFF explores why people seek abortions later in pregnancy, including medical concerns such as fetal anomalies, maternal health, or life endangerment, as well as barriers to care that cause delays in obtaining an abortion.

For more information, read the full brief.

Abortions Later in Pregnancy in a Post-Dobbs Era

Published: Feb 21, 2024

Text and figures 1 and 5 were updated on July 23, 2024 to reflect policy updates in Maryland & Michigan. 

Key Takeaways

  • Abortions at or after 21 weeks are uncommon and represent 1% of all abortions in the U.S. The procedures are expensive and often require travel and lost wages. They normally require treatment over multiple days and are only performed by a subset of all abortion providers.
  • Claims of abortions occurring “moments before birth” or even “after birth” are false. These scenarios do not occur, nor are they legal in the United States.
  • Reasons individuals seek abortions later in pregnancy include medical concerns such as fetal anomalies or maternal life endangerment, as well as barriers to care that cause delays in obtaining an abortion.
  • Fourteen states currently ban abortion and 11 have gestational bans that restrict abortion at a certain point in pregnancy. An additional 16 states ban abortion at or near “viability”, the point where a fetus can survive outside the womb.
  • Access to abortions later in pregnancy has always been limited; there are few providers that offer the services and the costs are often prohibitive. Changes in the landscape of abortion access in the U.S. post-Dobbs has led to an increase in out of state travel for abortion services as well as an increase in delays. It is still unknown whether this has led to an increase in the share of abortions that are performed later in pregnancy.

Introduction

Abortions occurring at or after 21 weeks gestational age are rare. They are often difficult to obtain, as they are only available in a handful of states, performed by a small subset of abortion providers and are typically costly and time-intensive. Yet, these abortions receive a disproportionate share of attention in the news, policy and the law. Discussions on this topic are often fraught with misinformation; for example, intense public discussions have been sparked after several presidential candidates claimed there were abortions occurring “moments before birth” or even “after birth.” In reality, these scenarios do not occur, nor are they legal, in the United States. Discussion of this topic is distorted and inflamed by the terminology that is sometimes used to describe abortions later in pregnancy— including “late-term,” “post-viability,” “partial birth,” “dismemberment” and “born-alive” abortions. There have been some news reports of former President and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s support of a national 16-week abortion ban that would eliminate access to abortions later in pregnancy except when the life of the pregnant person is in danger or the pregnancy is a result of rape/incest. This brief explains why individuals may seek abortions later in pregnancy, how often these procedures occur, and the various laws which regulate access to abortions later in pregnancy across the country.

Clarifying Pregnancy Dating: pregnancies are measured using gestational age (GA), calculated in days and weeks since the first day of the last menstrual period (LMP). Since some people do not know the date of their LMP, ultrasound can also be used to calculate GA. Post-fertilization or fertilization age refers to the time since the egg and sperm fused to create a fertilized egg. Fertilization occurs approximately 2 weeks after menses, thus gestational age by LMP predates fertilization age by ~2 weeks. By convention, gestational age is used to discuss pregnancy dating as most pregnant individuals know their LMP, however certain abortion regulations reference fertilization age instead.

What is a so-called “late-term” abortion?

“Late term” abortion typically refers to abortions obtained at or after 21 weeks, however it is not an accepted medical term, nor is there a consensus around to which gestational ages it refers. Members of the medical community have criticized the term “late-term” abortion, as it implies abortions are taking place after a pregnancy has reached “term” (37 weeks) or “late term” (>41 weeks) which is false. In fact, the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) has written that “late-term abortion” has no medical meaning. As such, this brief discusses abortions occurring at ≥21 weeks gestation as abortions later in pregnancy, but it should be noted that 21 weeks is a largely arbitrary cutoff based on how the CDC collects data on abortions. Abortions at this stage in pregnancy are sometimes referred to as “later abortions” by the medical community as well.

How do states restrict or regulate abortions later in pregnancy?

On June 24, 2022, in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, the Supreme Court overturned Roe and eliminated the federal constitutional standard that had protected the right to abortion. Without any federal standards, states can now set their own policies banning or protecting abortion at any point in pregnancy. This has drastically changed the landscape of abortion in the United States, as 14 states have now banned abortion at any stage of pregnancy and 11 others have gestational limits banning abortion after a certain point in pregnancy, such as before cardiac activity is detected in the fetus or up to a certain number of weeks of pregnancy.

However, in states without abortion bans or gestational bans before 22 weeks LMP, access to abortions later in pregnancy is often limited for many reasons, including viability bans, bans on certain abortion procedures, and a limited number of abortion providers who are trained or willing to provide abortions later in pregnancy. While viability, the point when a fetus can survive outside the womb, is no longer the federal standard that defines the legality of abortion in the U.S., 16 states that still allow abortions currently have laws restricting abortion at “viability” or at 24 weeks LMP / 3rd trimester, when viability is presumed to occur (Figure 1). These states have abortion exemptions similar to the exemptions in abortion bans (such as to preserve the health or life of the pregnant person) and gestational limits, defining when an abortion is allowed to be performed after viability. Most of the 11 states that restrict abortions at “viability” define it as the point where a physician or other healthcare provider determines whether a fetus can survive outside the womb. Four of these states include language in their abortion policies defining viability as the point where there is a likelihood that the fetus could survive without the “application of extraordinary measures” and another three states have language clarifying the fetus could survive with or without extraordinary measures.

States With Policies That Ban Abortion at or Near Fetal Viability

Box 1: What is viability?

Prior to the Dobbs decision, viability was the delineating factor in the abortion debate established by Roe v Wade and subsequent Supreme Court decisions. However, viability has never been properly defined by the courts and in reality, depends on the individual pregnancy and on various factors, including gestational age, fetal weight and sex, and medical interventions available. While viability does not refer to a specific gestational age, it is often presumed at 24 weeks gestation, with “periviability” referring to the time around viability (20 to 26 weeks gestation). The hospital at which the infant is delivered can greatly affect viability. Preterm infants born in resource-rich settings have a higher likelihood of survival than those born in resource-poor settings, thus their point of viability can be earlier than in other setting with fewer resources or trained clinicians. This is in part due to access to neonatologists and maternal-fetal-medicine doctors, but also due to hospital-specific policies; in a study of 24 academic hospitals, active treatment for infants born at 22 weeks ranged from 0% to 100% depending on the hospital, showing that the criteria used to determine viability at one hospital may not be the same at another.

Some states have also passed laws banning clinicians from performing certain abortion procedures that are commonly used in later abortions (Figure 2). Almost all abortions performed at or after 21 weeks are performed by a dilation and evacuation (D&E) procedure (9395% per CDC data). This involves dilating the cervix and evacuating the pregnancy tissue using forceps, with or without suction. D&Es can be performed safely up to at least 28 weeks gestational age, and when compared to their alternative of labor induction, have been found to be quicker and result in fewer complications; further, many individuals may prefer surgical management as they will be sedated and do not have to undergo labor and delivery of the fetus.

Nebraska has enacted a D&E ban, although the state also has a 12-week gestational ban. Nine states ban dilation and extractions (D&Xs), a rarely used abortion procedure also referred to as an intact D&E or a “partial birth abortion” by policymakers (Appendix Table 1).

Certain Abortion Procedures Used Later in Pregnancy Are Prohibited in States That Do Not Ban Abortion

In addition to gestational age limits and method bans used for abortions later in pregnancy, abortions later in pregnancy are subject to the same regulations that apply to abortions earlier in pregnancy, including mandatory waiting periods and physician and hospital requirements.

How common are abortions later in pregnancy?

Abortions occurring at or after 21 weeks gestation are rare. According to the CDC’s Abortion Surveillance Data for 2021, prior to the Dobbs decision, the vast number of abortions (96%) occurred at or before 15 weeks gestation, while 3% occurred from 16 to 20 weeks gestation, and just 1% of abortions were performed at or after 21 weeks (Figure 3). This amounts to approximately 4,100 abortions per year occurring at or after 21 weeks. However, this estimate only includes the 41 reporting areas that report abortions to the CDC by gestational age and excludes major states such as California and New York. The percentage of abortions occurring at or before 13 weeks gestation has remained stable over the last few decades at 91-92%, however within this timeframe, more abortions are occurring earlier in pregnancy, at or before 9 weeks. This is likely in part due to the greater availability of medication abortions over the last two decades.

Prior to the Dobbs Decision, the Vast Majority of Abortions Occurred Early in Pregnancy

The CDC does not elaborate on the breakdown by gestational age for abortions occurring past 21 weeks, but it is likely that the vast majority occur soon after 21 weeks rather than much later in the pregnancy. While very limited contemporary data exists on this issue, a study from 1992 estimated 0.02% of all abortions occurred after 26 weeks gestation (320 to 600 cases per year).

Preliminary findings from a study on abortion provision since the Dobbs decision has found that patients living in states where abortion is banned or restricted have experienced increased delays in obtaining abortion care, in part due to arranging out-of-state travel to states where abortion is legal and limited appointment availability in abortion clinics in states where abortion is legal. Out-of-state travel for abortion services doubled in the first half of 2023 compared to the first half of 2020, likely driven by the overturning of Roe. Delays in accessing abortion services push people who want an abortion further along in their pregnancies, which could lead to an increase in the share of people who need abortions later in pregnancy.

In addition, even if patients can travel to a different state to access later abortion services, there are a few clinicians who provide abortions later in pregnancy. This was the case even before the Dobbs decision. Researchers from Advancing New Standards in Reproductive Health (ANSIRH) found that in 2023, 60 clinics provided abortions at or after 24 weeks and five clinics provided services at or after 28 weeks, meaning that most individuals in need of abortions later in pregnancy often have to travel significant distances to find an available and trained provider.1  A University of California San Francisco study found that compared to before Dobbs there was a slight increase in the number of abortion clinics that provide abortions after 24 weeks after the Dobbs ruling. Abortions at this stage also typically require two days to complete with inpatient care, as opposed to outpatient or at-home management that is possible earlier in pregnancy. Some facilities in the U.S. perform abortions later in pregnancy as outpatient procedures (up to certain gestational ages), but it is less common than offering inpatient care for these cases.

Why do people have abortions later in pregnancy?

Individuals seek abortions later in pregnancy for a number of reasons. As part of the Turnaway study out of the University of California San Francisco, from 2008-2010 over 440 women were asked about why they experienced delays in obtaining abortion care, if any (Figure 4). Almost half of individuals who obtained an abortion after 20 weeks did not suspect they were pregnant until later in pregnancy, and other barriers to care included lack of information about where to access an abortion, transportation difficulties, lack of insurance coverage and inability to pay for the procedure. A 2022 study of patients seeking abortions later in pregnancy found that they fell into two categories: either they had learned new information about their pregnancies that made them no longer desirable, such as not finding out they were pregnant until very late in the pregnancy or the emergence of serious fetal or their own health issue; or experiencing barriers to abortion services earlier in the pregnancy that force them to delay the abortion until the third trimester.

Many Factors Contribute to Delays in Obtaining Abortion Care

Delays Stemming from Financial Barriers to Abortion Access: Abortions can be cost-prohibitive for many; a study examining abortion costs in 2021 found that the median out-of-pocket self-pay costs for medication abortion services was $568, $625 for first trimester procedural abortions, and $775 for second trimester procedural abortions (range $465 to $2,885). These costs do not account for lodging and transportation costs, loss of work or childcare costs, which can drive the price higher. Third trimester abortion costs can range from a couple thousand dollars to over $25,000, depending on how far along the pregnancy is and how clinically complex it is. The Federal Reserve Board found 32% of U.S. adults do not have enough in savings to pay for a $400 emergency expense, meaning many individuals may need to delay having an abortion until they can raise the necessary funds.

Fetal Anomalies: Individuals also seek abortions later in pregnancy due to medical reasons. With medical advances, many genetic fetal anomalies can be detected early in pregnancy; for example, chorionic villus sampling can diagnose Down Syndrome or cystic fibrosis as earlier as 10 weeks gestation. Structural fetal anomalies, however, are often detected much later in pregnancy. As part of routine care, a fetal anatomy scan is performed around 20 weeks, which entails ultrasound imaging of all the developing organs. Many structural anomalies are discovered at this time that would not have been apparent previously. A proportion of these are lethal fetal anomalies, meaning that the fetus will almost certainly die before or shortly after birth, meaning the fetus may be nonviable (consensus does not always exist as to which anomalies are fatal, and thus nonviable). In these cases, many individuals wish to terminate their pregnancies, rather than risk carrying the pregnancy until the fetus or newborn passes away. Very often these pregnancies are desired, making this decision exceedingly difficult for parents. Inadequate data exist to know how many abortions later in pregnancy occur due to fetal anomalies, but a study by Washington University Hospital showed almost all women whose fetuses had lethal fetal anomalies chose to terminate their pregnancies. Three (Alabama, Indiana and West Virginia) of the fourteen states with abortion bans and five states with early gestational bans (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Utah) currently have exceptions for pregnancies with lethal fetal anomalies, but it is unknown whether any abortions under these exemptions have occurred. Among the states with viability or near viability bans, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts and New Hampshire have exemptions for fetal anomalies. Pregnant people who reside in states where abortion is banned and with no fetal anomaly exceptions who are unable to travel out of state can be forced to carry their pregnancies to term and deliver infants who are stillborn or die shortly after birth.

A 2011 survey of maternal fetal medicine (MFM) doctors—specialists who manage pregnancies with fetal anomalies— found most agreed that termination of pregnancy due to a lethal fetal anomaly should be allowed in all circumstances (76%). The majority (75%) discuss abortion as a management option soon after diagnosing a lethal fetal anomaly, but services for terminating pregnancies in these scenarios are limited. Even over decade before the Dobbs decision, only 40% of MFM doctors worked at healthcare centers offering abortions past 24 weeks for lethal fetal anomalies. An additional 12% knew of available services <50 miles away.

Health Risk to the Pregnant Person: Life threatening conditions may also develop later in pregnancy. These include conditions like early severe preeclampsia, newly diagnosed cancer requiring prompt treatment, and intrauterine infection (chorioamnionitis) often in conjunction with premature rupture of the amniotic sac (PPROM). If these conditions occur in a state where abortion is legal, the pregnant individual may pursue termination of pregnancy to preserve their own health. All states that ban abortion, have gestational bans, or limit abortion at or near viability, have exceptions allowing for abortions to occur when the life of the pregnant person is in danger, and 34 states have exceptions for when the health of the pregnant person is at risk (Figure 5). Former President Donald Trump reportedly supports a 16-week national abortion ban with exceptions for when the life of the pregnant person is in danger and in cases for rape or incest, but the 16-week national ban would not have an exception for when the health of the pregnant person is at risk. It is likely that a ban such as this would be structured so that it would limit abortions in states that currently permit abortions later in pregnancy, but allow states with abortion bans or gestational restrictions to keep their laws in effect.

The legal standards states use to determine when a pregnant person qualifies for a life or health exception can be ambiguous, with some standards leaving physicians in a legally vulnerable position that allow a prosecutor to bring an expert witness to contradict the physician’s medical judgment. In a recent case out of Texas, Kate Cox, a pregnant women seeking an abortion, sought a court order that would have allowed her to have an abortion under the exceptions to the Texas abortion ban. Fearing prosecution for providing abortion care that she believed it fit under the abortion ban’s exception based upon her good faith medical judgement, Ms. Cox’s physician asked a Texas District Court to determine that providing the abortion was not a violation of the state’s ban. While the District Court agreed with the plaintiffs that the case qualified for an exception, the Texas state Attorney General wrote a letter to the hospital stating that his office would still enforce the state abortion ban if abortion care was provided. Consequently, the Texas Supreme Court overruled the lower district court, finding that the physician’s “good faith belief” was insufficient to qualify for the exception, and only abortions that are certified to be necessary under the “reasonable medical judgement” standard are allowable under Texas law.

The Majority of States with Abortion Bans, Gestational Limits, or Limits Near or At Viability Have Exceptions for When the Pregnant Person's Health is at Risk

In states where abortion is banned, there have been questions and confusion about how ill a pregnant person must be for an abortion under a health exception to be performed. There are reports of patients having health complications that are not life threatening at the moment they are seeking care, and being sent home and subsequently developing serious complications that do threaten their lives as a result. In Idaho, Indiana, Tennessee, and Texas, physicians and people who were denied abortion care despite facing pregnancy complications that jeopardized their health have filed lawsuits regarding harms experienced as a result of the lack of health exceptions in their respective state abortion bans. They are asking for courts to clarify the scope of the state bans’ health exceptions and for physician judgment in making determinations about abortion as a medical treatment for emergent conditions to be granted greater deference.

In July 2022, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) issued guidance regarding the enforcement of EMTALA (Emergency Medical Treatment and Active Labor Act), the law that requires hospitals that take Medicare enrolled patients to perform appropriate medical screening examination to any patient who presents at the emergency department and to provide stabilizing care to patients identified as having an emergency medical condition. The 2022 guidance clarifies that hospitals and physicians have obligations to provide stabilizing care, including abortion in medically appropriate circumstances, when a patient presenting at an emergency department is experiencing an emergency medical condition. Since the guidance was issued, HHS has sued the state of Idaho for their abortion ban, which did not contain exceptions for health, and the state of Texas has sued to block enforcement of the guidance in Texas. The two federal district courts that have considered this issue have reached opposite decisions. In Texas, a federal district court blocked HHS from enforcing the EMTALA guidance in Texas and the Biden administration has appealed this decision to the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals. In Idaho, a federal district court issued a temporary stay blocking part of the Idaho ban, which was also stayed by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. However, in January 2024, the Supreme Court of the United States agreed to hear the Biden Administration’s challenge to the Idaho abortion ban and allowed Idaho’s ban to be fully in effect while the litigation is ongoing.

Have states taken action to expand access to abortions later in pregnancy?

Recognizing that access to abortions later in pregnancy can be a health preserving or life-saving medical service to a small group of pregnant people, yet very difficult to access, a few states have sought to expand access to abortions later in pregnancy. The New York Reproductive Health Act enacted in January 2019 expanded protections for abortion providers and pregnant individuals who have abortions after 24 weeks in cases of health or life endangerment or lethal fetal anomalies. In May 2023, Minnesota repealed its viability ban and in July 2023, Maine enacted L.D. 1619, allowing abortions after viability anytime a doctor deemed them medically necessary. Previously the law only allowed abortions after viability if the pregnant person’s life was in danger.

The authors would like acknowledge Gabriela Weigel, MD, former KFF-UCSF Fellow, who co-authored the 2019 version of this brief.

The authors would like to acknowledge Jennifer Karlin, MD, PhD (University of California, San Francisco) for her review of an earlier version of this brief.

Appendix

Non-Medical Terminology Used to Describe Abortions in Policy and Law
  1. Berglas NB, Schroeder R, Kaller S, Stewart C, and Upadhyay UD. Change in service availability of 2nd and 3rd trimester abortion care following Dobbs. Society of Family Planning Conference, October 2023. ↩︎
Poll Finding

KFF Health Tracking Poll February 2024: Voters on Two Key Health Care Issues: Affordability and ACA

Published: Feb 21, 2024

Findings

Key Takeaways

  • Inflation and health care affordability continue to be the top issues voters want the 2024 presidential candidates to talk about on the campaign trail, and while national news has recently emphasized an improving national economy alongside expanded consumer spending, most voters (67%) rate the national economy as “not so good” or “poor.” Voters’ assessment of the economy is largely influenced by their perceptions of their own costs, as majorities describe the economy negatively due to the cost of everyday expenses (64%), inflation (63%), the cost of housing (57%), or the cost of health care (48%). About half of all voters say the economy is “not so good” or “poor” due to the state of the federal budget deficit and national debt (52%), and few say financial indicators such as the unemployment rate (24%) or the state of the stock market (20%) factor into their assessment in a major way.
  • Unexpected medical bills and health care costs top the list of expenses that adults, regardless of partisanship, say they worry about affording, with three in four adults saying they are “very” or “somewhat worried” about being able to afford unexpected medical bills (74%) or the cost of health care services (73%) for themselves and their family. Just over half (55%) report worrying about being able to afford prescription drug costs, and about half of insured adults (48%) say they are worried about being able to afford their monthly health insurance premium.
  • Voters are divided along party lines over which candidate they think has the better approach to the future of the Affordable Care Act, with partisans overwhelmingly choosing their party’s candidate. Nine in ten Democratic voters (90%) say Biden has the better approach and nine in ten Republican voters (91%) say Trump does. Although the vast majority of Republicans say Trump has a better approach to the ACA, few (30%) Republican voters think Trump has a health care plan to replace it. At the same time, most of the public does not associate President Biden with playing a major role in the passage of the ACA, which was signed into law when he was Vice President. One in five (21%) say he had a major role in the law’s passage, including a larger share of Democrats ages 50 and older (42%).
  • The Affordable Care Act continues to be more popular than it was prior to Republican attempts to repeal it in 2017, with six in ten (59%) expressing a favorable view, though partisans are divided on what they want to see done with the law. About three in four Democrats want the next Presidential Administration and Congress to expand what the law does (77%), while about two-thirds of Republicans either want the law to be scaled back (23%) or repealed entirely (39%). A majority of independents want the law to be expanded (48%) or kept as is (18%).
  • One of the most consistently popular provisions of the Affordable Care Act is its protections for people with pre-existing conditions. Most adults across partisans say it is very important that the aspects of the law that prevent health insurance companies from denying coverage due to someone’s medical history (67%) and that prevent health insurance companies from charging sick people higher premiums (65%) remain law. However, few – between three and four in ten for each aspect – are aware that these are provisions of the ACA.
  • Knowledge among the public is low regarding the Affordable Care Act’s impact on lowering the rate of uninsured in the U.S. and the all-time high rate of enrollees during the recent open enrollment period. One-third (35%) of adults – rising to about half (48%) of Democrats – correctly say that since the ACA was passed in 2010, the uninsured rate in the U.S. has decreased. A similar share (34%) correctly say that more people signed up in this enrollment period than in the past.

Health Care Affordability as a Voting Issue

Voters want to Hear from Candidates on Inflation, The Affordability of Health Care and The Future of Government Health Care Programs

Heading into the election, the issues that voters are most interested to hear candidates talk about are related to the economy and health care costs. At least eight in ten voters say it is “very important” for the 2024 presidential candidates to talk about inflation (83%) and the affordability of health care (80%) – relatively unchanged from November 2023. Following inflation and health care affordability, about seven in ten voters say it is “very important” to hear presidential candidates talk about the future of Medicare (73%), the future of democracy (72%), and immigration (69%).

The future of the Affordable Care Act, an issue that was once a key health care issue for Republican voters, is ranked as a “very important” issue for larger shares of Democratic voters (71%) than Republican voters (36%). In December 2023, former President Donald Trump reignited the issue by announcing that he plans to replace the 2010 health care law. However, similar minorities of Republicans now and before these statements say the issue is “very important” to them.

With inflation and health care affordability remaining among the most important issues voters want to hear the presidential candidates talk about heading into the 2024 election, two-thirds of voters (67%) describe the national economy as either “not so good” or “poor.” Republican voters are more than twice as likely as Democrats to rate the economy negatively (88% v. 37%) and seven in ten independent voters (72%) rate the economy negatively.

Large shares of voters who rate the economy negatively cite cost issues, including health care costs, as a major reason for doing so. A majority of voters rate the economy negatively and say a “major reason” for doing so is the cost of everyday expenses (64%), inflation (63%), or the cost of housing (57%). About half of voters describe the economy as “not so good” or “poor” and say the state of the federal budget deficit and national debt (52%) or health care costs (48%) are a “major reason” for their negative views. Far fewer voters cite indicators such as the unemployment rate (24%) or the state of the stock market (20%) as a “major reason” they rate the economy negatively.

Majority of Voters Say Inflation And Cost Of Everyday Expenses, Housing And Healthcare Are Major Reasons They Describe Economy Negatively

Among those who rate the economy negatively, Democratic voters are more likely than Republican voters to cite the cost of health care and the rate of unemployment as “major reason” for doing so, while Republican voters are more likely to cite the state of the federal budget deficit and national debt.

Health Care Expenses Top List of Financial Worries

Alongside voters’ overwhelmingly negative views of the economy, large shares of the public say they worry about being able to afford basic living expenses with health care cost concerns topping the list. About three in four adults say they are either “very” or “somewhat worried” about being able to afford unexpected medical bills (74%) or the cost of health care services (73%) for themselves and their families. Just over half of adults (55%) say they are “very worried” about being able to afford prescription drug costs, and about half of insured adults say they are “very” or “somewhat worried” about being able to afford their monthly health insurance premium (48%).

Beyond health care cost concerns, a majority of the public reports worrying about being able to afford gasoline or other transportation costs (65%), their monthly utilities like electricity and heat (64%), food (62%), paying down debt (61%), or their rent or mortgage (58%). About four in ten parents (43%) say they are worried about being able to afford child care for themselves and their family.

About Three In Four Adults Say They Are Worried About Being Able To Afford Unexpected Medical Bills, The Cost Of Health Care

Unexpected medical bills and the cost of health care services are the top financial worries across partisans. At least seven in ten Democrats and Republicans say they are “very” or “somewhat worried” about being able to afford the cost of health care services (72% and 75%, respectively) or unexpected medical bills (71% and 78%, respectively) for themselves and their family.

Majorities Across Partisans Say They Are Worried About Being Able To Afford Unexpected Medical Bills, Health Care Costs, And Other Everyday Expenses

Biden vs. Trump on Addressing High Health Care Costs

With health care affordability topping the list of issues voters want to hear about and leading the list of financial worries, the latest KFF Tracking Poll suggests neither President Biden nor former President Trump has a clear advantage on this issue, but Republicans give Trump higher marks on this issue than Democrats give Biden.

Reflecting the current dynamic of the 2024 election overall, voters are divided along partisan lines on which candidate did more when they were president to address health care costs. Most Democrats (90%) say Biden has done more to address health care costs and most Republicans (91%) say Trump did more during his time as president. Independents are split, with similar shares saying each did more to address health care costs.

Partisans Are Split On Who Did More To Address Health Care Costs

While partisans say their party’s candidate did more to address health care costs, Trump receives higher levels of satisfaction on the issue from voters overall and Republican voters than Biden does from voters overall and Democratic voters. One in seven (14%) voters overall say Biden has done more than Trump and has done enough to address health care costs, while one in four (26%) say Trump has done more than Biden and that he did enough on this issue. A majority of voters say neither president did enough, including about one in three who say President Biden did more than Trump but not enough (36%) and about one in five who say former President Trump did more than Biden but not enough (22%). Trump may be reaping the benefits of the retrospective views of voters, whereas criticism of Biden may be more reflective of voters’ general dissatisfaction with the current state of the national economy.

This also holds true when examining partisan attitudes, with Democratic voters being less satisfied with Biden’s performance than Republican voters are with Trump on health care costs: About one in three (33%) Democratic voters say Biden has done enough to address health care costs while six in ten (59%) Republican voters say Trump has done enough. Few independent voters are satisfied with either candidate’s addressing of health care costs, as one in ten (9%) say President Biden has done enough and 14% say former President Trump has done enough. This is in-line with Democrats’ overall lack of enthusiasm of President Biden and strong support for Trump among Republicans as each party’s respective presidential candidate at this time.

One Third Of Democratic Voters Say Biden Has Done Enough To Address Health Care Costs; Six In Ten Republicans Say The Same Of Trump

Perhaps reflecting younger voters’ overall lower enthusiasm for President Biden, one in four (24%) younger Democratic voters say Biden has done enough when it comes to addressing health care costs, compared to four in ten (40%) Democratic voters ages 50 and older who say the same.

Younger Democratic Voters Are Less Likely To Say Biden Has Done Enough To Address Health Care Costs

Republican voters, however, by age are aligned, with similar shares across age groups saying Trump has done enough to address health care costs. Trump may be reaping the benefits of the retrospective views of a largely Republican base, whereas Democrats’ critiques of President Biden may reflect voters’ general dissatisfaction with the current state of the economy.

The Affordable Care Act as a Voting Issue

In November of last year, former President Trump reignited the conversation of replacing the Affordable Care Act if elected president, an issue that was once a key health care issue for Republicans. Once a more contentious issue, the health care law enacted under the Obama Administration in 2010 has consistently garnered more support than opposition since 2018.

Since 2018, The Public Has Consistently Been More Favorable Than Unfavorable Of The Affordable Care Act

However, views of the Affordable Care Act remain partisan with nearly nine in ten (87%) Democrats and about half (55%) of independents holding positive views of the law while two-thirds (67%) of Republicans view the law unfavorably. One-third (33%) of Republicans view the law favorably, a share that has increased since the law was enacted. See here for full trend on views of the ACA by partisanship.

Large Majorities Of Democrats And Half Of Independents Favor The ACA; Most Republicans Have Unfavorable Views Of ACA

Building on the ACA has been a focal point of President Biden’s health care agenda, while former President Trump has recently discussed his desire to try again to repeal and replace the law. Half of the public say they would like to see the next president and Congress expand what the ACA does. A smaller share wants to keep the law as it is (16%) and about a third want to either scale back what the law does (14%) or repeal it entirely (18%). Partisans differ on these approaches, with about three in four Democrats wanting the 2024 incoming administration and Congress to expand what the law does (77%), while two-thirds of Republicans want the law to be scaled back (23%) or repealed entirely (39%). A majority of independents want the law to be expanded (48%) or kept as it is (18%). Views towards what to do with the health care law have remained largely unchanged since 2020.

Larger Shares Of the Public Want to See The ACA Expanded Than Repealed Or Scaled Back

Views of the ACA may be driven by interactions with the law and perceptions about what it has done for access to health insurance. About four in ten (39%), including similar shares across household income, say the Affordable Care Act has made it easier for people like them to get health insurance, while about one quarter (23%) say it has made it more difficult and about one-third (37%) say it has had no impact on people like them to get health insurance. Similar to other assessments of the 2010 health care law, this perception varies by partisanship, as Democrats are about three times as likely as Republicans (60% v. 22%) to say the ACA has helped people like them get insurance. More than four in ten independents (44%) say the ACA has had no impact on the ability of people like them to get health insurance.

Similar shares of adults under and over age 65 – the age of eligibility for Medicare, a government health insurance program – say the ACA has made it easier for people like them to get health insurance (40% among adults ages 18 to 64 vs. 36% among adults ages 65 and older), though younger adults are more likely to say the ACA has made it more difficult for them to access health care (25% v. 17%) and less likely to say it has had “no impact” on people like them (34% v. 45%).

Four In Ten Adults Say The ACA Has Made It Easier For People Like Them To Get Health Insurance, Including Similar Shares Across Household Income; Partisans Divide

The passing of the Affordable Care Act under the Obama Administration was one of Biden’s achievements as Vice President, and its expansion became a cornerstone for his 2020 presidential campaign and administration, but many voters do not associate Biden with the ACA. About half of adults associate President Biden with the passing of the Affordable Care Act, with one in five saying he had a major role (21%) and about three in ten (28%) saying he had a “minor role” in the passing of the legislation. Few (14%) say he had no role, and about four in ten (38%) are not sure. About one third (32%) of Democrats say that Biden had a “major role” in the passing of the ACA, including larger shares of Democrats ages 50 and older (42%) than younger Democrats (23%). About one in five (22%) Republicans say that Biden had a major role, including similar shares across age groups. About one third of partisans say they are not sure about Biden’s role in the ACA.

Democrats Ages 50 And Older Are Most Likely To Credit Biden With A Role In The Passing Of The ACA During His Time As Vice President

Biden vs. Trump on the Affordable Care Act

Voters are split along party lines in their assessments of the potential 2024 presidential candidates’ approaches to the ACA, with about nine in ten Democratic voters saying they think President Biden has the better approach to determining the future of the ACA, and similar shares of Republicans saying the same of Trump. Independent voters are split, with half (50%) saying Biden has the better approach and about half (47%) saying Trump has the better approach. Neither President Biden nor former President Trump has the edge among voters overall when it comes to approaches to determining the future of the Affordable Care Act.

Democratic And Republican Voters Divide On Whether Biden Or Trump Has The Better Approach To Determining The Future Of The ACA

While Republican voters think President Trump has a better approach to determining the future of the ACA, many say they either don’t think he has a health care plan to replace the 2010 law or are unsure. A majority of voters, including seven in ten Republican voters, say they do not think President Trump has a health care plan to replace the ACA (42%) or that they are not sure if he has a plan (43%). Trump’s supporters, or MAGA Republican voters, are most likely to say Mr. Trump does have a plan, with one-third (35%) saying this compared to one in seven (16%) non-MAGA Republicans.

Few Voters Say Trump Has A Health Care Plan To Replace The ACA

Pre-Existing Conditions Protections

As part of the ACA, private health insurance companies are prohibited from denying coverage based on a person’s medical history and are prohibited from charging those with pre-existing conditions more coverage. These protections have been consistently popular among the public, and about two-thirds of adults say it is “very important” that provisions prohibiting insurance companies from denying coverage because of a person’s medical history (67%) and prohibiting insurance companies from charging sick people more (65%) remain law.

Majorities Say It Is Very Important The ACA Provisions Protecting Those With Pre-Existing Conditions Remain Law

Pre-existing condition provisions are popular across party lines. For example, about eight in ten (79%) Democrats and two-thirds (66%) of independents say it is “very important” to them that the provision prohibiting health insurance companies from denying coverage because of one’s medical history remains intact. A slight majority (54%) of Republicans say this is “very important” to them, and an additional third (35%) say it is “somewhat important.” Similarly, half (51%) of Republicans and majorities of Democrats (79%) and independents (65%) say it is “very important” that insurance companies are prohibited from charging sick people more.

ACA Protections For People With Pre-Existing Conditions Are Overwhelmingly Popular

Although the future of the Affordable Care Act has reentered the news cycle with Trump’s reigniting of repeal efforts, awareness of the law’s provisions is low. About three in ten (31%) adults are aware that the ACA prohibits private health insurance companies from charging sick people higher premiums, while about seven in ten say they are not sure or incorrectly say it does not, though Democrats (37%) are more likely than Republicans (29%) to correctly say it does. Six in ten adults either say they are not sure or do not know if the ACA prohibits private health insurance companies from denying coverage for a pre-existing condition, including similar shares across partisans.

Knowledge of the law’s provisions has dropped over the past 14 years. At its height, seven in ten U.S. adults were aware of the ACA’s protections for people with pre-existing conditions at the law’s inception in 2010. Since 2017, fewer than half of U.S. adults have been aware, while the popularity of these provisions remains high.

Less Than Half Of Adults Across Partisans Are Aware Of The ACA's Protections For People With Pre-Existing Conditions

The ACA Marketplace

Since 2010, with the enactment of the Affordable Care Act Marketplaces and expansion of Medicaid, the share of uninsured non-elderly adults in the U.S. has dropped from 18% to about 10%. About one in three (35%) are aware of this decrease – rising to half (48%) of Democrats – while about three in ten adults say the uninsured rate has increased (32%) or remained the same (31%) since 2010. Republicans (39%) are more likely than Democrats to say the uninsured rate has stayed the same.

About One Third Of U.S. Adults Are Aware That Since The Passing Of The ACA, The Rate Of Uninsured Has Decreased, Rising To About Half Of Democrats

During the open enrollment period at the end of 2023, a record breaking number of individuals selected health insurance plans through the ACA Marketplace, or healthcare.gov, continuing a trend of increases in enrollment since 2020’s open enrollment period. However, this fact is not widely known among the public: one in three (34%) U.S. adults correctly say more people purchased their own health insurance through the Affordable Care Act Marketplace during this enrollment period than in past years, while about one in five (23%) say fewer people signed up, and four in ten (40%) say about the same number of enrollees signed up. There are sharp partisan divides on knowledge of the latest enrollment period, as half of Democrats correctly say more people signed up, compared to one in four Republicans who say the same.

Fewer Than Half Of U.S. Adults Are Aware That More People Enrolled In Health Insurance Through The ACA Marketplace Last Year Than In Years Past

Methods

This KFF Health Tracking Poll was designed and analyzed by public opinion researchers at KFF. The survey was conducted January 30 – February 7, 2024, online and by telephone among a nationally representative sample of 1,309 U.S. adults in English (1,231) and in Spanish (78). The sample includes 1,026 adults (n=58 in Spanish) reached through the SSRS Opinion Panel either online (n=1,002) or over the phone (n=24). The SSRS Opinion Panel is a nationally representative probability-based panel where panel members are recruited randomly in one of two ways: (a) Through invitations mailed to respondents randomly sampled from an Address-Based Sample (ABS) provided by Marketing Systems Groups (MSG) through the U.S. Postal Service’s Computerized Delivery Sequence (CDS); (b) from a dual-frame random digit dial (RDD) sample provided by MSG. For the online panel component, invitations were sent to panel members by email followed by up to three reminder emails.

Another 283 (n=20 in Spanish) interviews were conducted from a random digit dial telephone sample of prepaid cell phone numbers obtained through MSG. Phone numbers used for the prepaid cell phone component were randomly generated from a cell phone sampling frame with disproportionate stratification aimed at reaching Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black respondents. Stratification was based on incidence of the race/ethnicity groups within each frame.

Respondents in the phone samples received a $15 incentive via a check received by mail, and web respondents received a $5 electronic gift card incentive (some harder-to-reach groups received a $10 electronic gift card). In order to ensure data quality, cases were removed if they failed attention check questions in the online version of the questionnaire, or if they had over 30% item non-response, or had a length less than one quarter of the mean length by mode. Based on this criterion, one case was removed.

The combined cell phone and panel samples were weighted to match the sample’s demographics to the national U.S. adult population based on parameters derived from the Census Bureau’s 2022 Current Population Survey (CPS), 2021 Volunteering and Civic Life Supplement data from the CPS, and the 2023 KFF Benchmarking survey with ABS and prepaid cell phone samples. The demographic variables included in weighting for the general population sample are sex, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, education, civic engagement, internet use, and political party identification by race/ethnicity. The sample of registered voters was weighted separately to match the U.S. registered voter population using the parameters above plus recalled vote in the 2020 presidential election by county quintiles grouped by Trump vote share. Both weights account for differences in the probability of selection for each sample type (prepaid cell phone and panel). This includes adjustment for the sample design and geographic stratification of the cell phone sample, within household probability of selection, and the design of the panel-recruitment procedure.

The margin of sampling error including the design effect for the full sample and registered voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Numbers of respondents and margins of sampling error for key subgroups are shown in the table below. For results based on other subgroups, the margin of sampling error may be higher. Sample sizes and margins of sampling error for other subgroups are available by request. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll. KFF public opinion and survey research is a charter member of the Transparency Initiative of the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

GroupN (unweighted)M.O.S.E.
Total1,309± 4 percentage points
Total Registered Voters1,055± 4 percentage points
Republican Registered Voters343± 7 percentage points
Democratic Registered Voters368± 7 percentage points
Independent Registered Voters241± 8 percentage points

 

 

Poll Finding

KFF Health Tracking Poll: Economic Views and Experiences of Adults Who Struggle Financially

Published: Feb 21, 2024

Findings

About half of adults say they either have difficulty affording monthly bills or are just able to afford their household expenses without having money left over, according to the latest KFF Tracking Poll. These groups are much more likely than those who can afford their monthly costs with money left over to rate the national economy negatively and worry about affording everyday expenses. Worries about health care costs, however, pervade regardless of financial situation, with a majority of adults who can afford their bills with money left over saying they worry about affording unexpected medical bills or the cost of health care services. Thinking ahead to the upcoming 2024 presidential election, voters who have difficulty affording household expenses are more likely than others to say it is “very important” for presidential candidates to discuss inflation and affordability of health care on the campaign trail.

Assessments of the national economy are historically linked to presidential approval, and KFF’s latest tracking poll reflects this, with large shares of Republicans describing the economy negatively compared to fewer than half of Democrats saying the same. Yet at least three quarters of adults who report difficulty affording bills or say they can just afford their bills rate the economy negatively, suggesting that negative perceptions of the economy, at least in part, also reflect adults’ personal financial situations.

Who Struggles Affording Monthly Bills?

About one in five adults (19%) say they have difficulty affording their bills each month and about four in ten (37%) say they are just able to afford their bills each month, while a little over four in ten (44%) say they are both able to pay their bills and have some money left over.

Adults who have difficulty affording their monthly bills as well as those who are just able to pay their bills each month are younger and have lower household incomes compared to adults who say they can afford their bills each month with money left over. These groups are also disproportionately made up of Black adults, Hispanic adults, and women. The groups struggling to afford household expenses are equally made up of Democrats, independents, and Republicans, while adults who say they can afford their monthly bills with money left over are more likely to be Democrats than independents or Republicans.

Demographics Of Adults By Self-Reported Financial Situation

Majorities of adults who report difficulty affording their monthly bills and those who are just able to afford their bills say they are worried about affording expenses for themselves and their family, from health care costs to food and paying down debt. About nine in ten adults who have difficulty affording their monthly bills are “very” or “somewhat worried” about being able to afford their monthly utilities like electricity and heat (95%), food (90%), or their rent or mortgage (88%) for themselves or their family. Similarly large majorities of the group who can just afford their bills also say they are worried about affording monthly utilities (80%), food (77%), or their rent or mortgage (76%).

Health care costs are also a concern for those who struggle with bills, with more than eight in ten saying they are worried about the cost of health care services (86%) or unexpected medical bills (83%). Among those who are just able to afford their bills, about eight in ten are worried about being able to afford unexpected medical bills (84%) or health care services (83%). Fewer, but still majority shares, of both these groups report being worried about affording prescription drug costs (65% for each), and – among those with health insurance – their monthly health insurance premium (60%).

Notably, worry about health care costs pervade among a majority of adults, regardless of their financial situation. Six in ten adults who say they can afford their bills with money left over nonetheless say they are “very” or “somewhat worried” about being able to afford unexpected medical bills (62%) or the cost of health care services (60%) for themselves and their family. For this group, larger shares worry about affording health care services and unexpected medical bills than other expenses like housing, food, and utilities, perhaps reflecting anxieties associated with the uncertainty and potential high costs of a prospective medical episode.

Majorities Of Adults Who Struggle To Afford Monthly Bills And Those Who Can Just Pay Their Bills Report Worrying  About Most Everyday Costs

Beyond affordability worries, large shares of adults overall – including even larger shares of those who have difficulty affording bills or can just afford their bills – express worry about the prospect of medical debt, which prior KFF polling has found is held by about four in ten U.S. adults. Overall, seven in ten (70%) adults say they are “very” or “somewhat worried” a medical or dental bill will put them into debt or add to their current debt. Over eight in ten (85%) adults who struggle to afford their monthly bills say they are worried a medical or dental bill will put them in debt or add to their debt, including two-thirds (66%) of this group who say they are “very worried” about the prospect of taking on medical debt. Similar shares of the group that can just afford their bills also worry about health care debt, with 85% saying they are “very” or “somewhat worried” a medical or dental bill will lead to debt or add to their debt. Half (51%) of adults who can afford their bills with money left over report worrying that a bill will put them into health care debt or add to their debt.

Over Eight In Ten Adults Who Struggle To Pay Bills And Those Who Can Just Pay Their Bills Report Worrying About Going Into Medical Debt

How Personal Finances Impact Views of National Economy and Politics

Adults who struggle with their monthly bills are much more likely than those who are able to afford bills to rate the economy negatively, even as recent news reports have emphasized an improving national economy, although inflation rates have recently remained higher than expected. While there are notable partisan divides on the economy, with Republican voters much more likely than Democratic voters to rate the economy negatively, views on the economy also differ by financial situation. More than eight in ten adults (84%) who report difficulty affording their bills say the national economy is either “not so good” or “poor,” as do three-fourths (77%) of those who are just able to afford their monthly bills. These assessments of the national economy are at least twenty percentage points more negative than the views of adults who can afford their bills with money left over (57%).

Adults Who Report Difficulty Affording Monthly Bills Are More Likely Than Those Who Are Able To Afford Bills To Rate The Economy Negatively

Voters struggling to afford their monthly costs are more likely to say they want to hear the 2024 presidential candidates discuss economic issues and the future of Medicaid, suggesting that these issues may resonate even more with these voters during the presidential campaign. However, a majority of voters, regardless of financial situation, say they want to hear about cost issues. Voters who have trouble affording their monthly bills are more likely than those who can afford their bills with money left over to say it is “very important” for the 2024 presidential candidates to talk about several economic and health care related issues such as inflation (93% v. 77%), affordability of health care (89% v. 79%), prescription drug costs (76% v. 64%), the future of Medicaid (75% v. 49%) and student loan debt (44% v. 27%).

Voters Who Have Difficulty Affording Monthly Bills Are More Likely To Say It Is Important For 2024 Candidates To Talk About Economic, Health Care Issues

Large Shares of Voters Who Are Struggling to Afford Monthly Bills Say Trump Has Done More to Address Health Care Costs

Former President Trump may be reaping the benefits of retrospective views when voters are asked which president did more in office to address health care costs, while criticism of President Biden may be largely a result of general dissatisfaction with the current state of the economy. The groups of voters who struggle to afford their bills or can just afford their bills are more likely to say former President Trump did more than President Biden to address health care costs.

Six in ten (59%) voters who report difficulty affording their bills and about half (52%) of those who can just afford their bills say former President Trump did more as president to address health care costs than President Biden, while more than half of voters (56%) who can afford their bills with money left over side with Biden.

On the question of whether each president did enough to address health care costs, one-third (34%) of voters who have difficulty affording their monthly bills say former President Trump did enough to address health care costs, compared to one in ten (11%) who say President Biden has done enough to address the cost of health care. The group of voters who have difficulty affording bills are also more likely than those who can afford their bills with money left over to say former President Trump did enough to address health care costs (34% v. 22%).

Voters Who Struggle Financially Are More Likely Than Others To Say Former President Trump Did More To Address Health Care Costs Than President Biden

Methods

This KFF Health Tracking Poll was designed and analyzed by public opinion researchers at KFF. The survey was conducted January 30 – February 7, 2024, online and by telephone among a nationally representative sample of 1,309 U.S. adults in English (1,231) and in Spanish (78). The sample includes 1,026 adults (n=58 in Spanish) reached through the SSRS Opinion Panel either online (n=1,002) or over the phone (n=24). The SSRS Opinion Panel is a nationally representative probability-based panel where panel members are recruited randomly in one of two ways: (a) Through invitations mailed to respondents randomly sampled from an Address-Based Sample (ABS) provided by Marketing Systems Groups (MSG) through the U.S. Postal Service’s Computerized Delivery Sequence (CDS); (b) from a dual-frame random digit dial (RDD) sample provided by MSG. For the online panel component, invitations were sent to panel members by email followed by up to three reminder emails.

Another 283 (n=20 in Spanish) interviews were conducted from a random digit dial telephone sample of prepaid cell phone numbers obtained through MSG. Phone numbers used for the prepaid cell phone component were randomly generated from a cell phone sampling frame with disproportionate stratification aimed at reaching Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black respondents. Stratification was based on incidence of the race/ethnicity groups within each frame.

Respondents in the phone samples received a $15 incentive via a check received by mail, and web respondents received a $5 electronic gift card incentive (some harder-to-reach groups received a $10 electronic gift card). In order to ensure data quality, cases were removed if they failed attention check questions in the online version of the questionnaire, or if they had over 30% item non-response, or had a length less than one quarter of the mean length by mode. Based on this criterion, one case was removed.

The combined cell phone and panel samples were weighted to match the sample’s demographics to the national U.S. adult population based on parameters derived from the Census Bureau’s 2022 Current Population Survey (CPS), 2021 Volunteering and Civic Life Supplement data from the CPS, and the 2023 KFF Benchmarking survey with ABS and prepaid cell phone samples. The demographic variables included in weighting for the general population sample are sex, age, education, race/ethnicity, region, education, civic engagement, internet use, and political party identification by race/ethnicity. The sample of registered voters was weighted separately to match the U.S. registered voter population using the parameters above plus recalled vote in the 2020 presidential election by county quintiles grouped by Trump vote share. Both weights account for differences in the probability of selection for each sample type (prepaid cell phone and panel). This includes adjustment for the sample design and geographic stratification of the cell phone sample, within household probability of selection, and the design of the panel-recruitment procedure.

The margin of sampling error including the design effect for the full sample and registered voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Numbers of respondents and margins of sampling error for key subgroups are shown in the table below. For results based on other subgroups, the margin of sampling error may be higher. Sample sizes and margins of sampling error for other subgroups are available by request. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll. KFF public opinion and survey research is a charter member of the Transparency Initiative of the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

GroupN (unweighted)M.O.S.E.
Total1,309± 4 percentage points
Financial situation
Have difficulty affording their bills each month279± 8 percentage points
Are just able to afford their bills each month482± 6 percentage points
Are able to pay all of their bills and have some money left over544± 5 percentage points
News Release

Health Care Costs Top the Public’s List of Financial Worries, and Those Who Are Struggling the Most Want to Hear Presidential Candidates Discuss Economic and Health Care Issues

Far More People Want to Expand What the Affordable Care Act Does Than Want to Repeal It; Most Don’t Know Popular Pre-Existing Condition Protections Are Part of the ACA

Published: Feb 21, 2024

At a time when kitchen table economic problems are on voters’ minds, unexpected medical bills and health care costs top the public’s list of financial concerns, and voters who are struggling to pay their monthly bills are the most eager to hear the presidential candidates talk about economic and health care issues, the latest KFF Health Tracking Poll finds.

Nearly 3 in 4 adults say they are worried about being able to afford unexpected medical bills (74%) and the cost of health care services (73%), more than say the same about other everyday expenses, such as gas, utilities, food, and housing costs, and about paying for prescription drugs (55%). Health care worries top the list regardless of partisanship.

About half of all voters (48%) say health care costs are a major reason for their negative views of the economy, though larger shares cite everyday expenses, inflation, and housing costs. Overall, two thirds (67%) of voters view the economy negatively. Republican voters are more than twice as likely as Democratic voters to hold such negative views. 

The poll probes how people’s economic struggles color their views of the economy and their priorities for candidates. Overall, 1 in 5 adults (19%) say they have trouble affording their monthly bills, and nearly 4 in 10 (37%) say they say they can just afford their monthly bills. These groups hold very different views than those who say that they afford their bills with money left over (44% of all adults).

Those who report difficulty affording monthly bills are more likely to view the national economy negatively and are more likely to worry about affording health care and other routine expenses. They are also more likely to want the presidential candidates to talk about economic issues, including health care costs and the future of Medicaid, compared to voters who can easily afford their bills. 

The ACA Remains Popular, and More Want to Expand It Than Scale It Back or Repeal It

The poll also explores views of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which remains popular generally, though voters again split sharply along partisan lines over what should happen to the law next. 

Most of the public (59%) views the law favorably, as has been true since Republicans’ failed attempt to repeal and replace it during President Trump’s presidency. Fewer hold unfavorable views (39%), though most Republicans do (67%).  

In addition, half (50%) of the public, including nearly a quarter of Republicans (23%), want the next president and Congress to expand what the ACA does, as President Biden has advocated. Another 16% want to keep it as is. In contrast, only about a third of the public favor either scaling back the law (14%) or repealing it entirely (18%), the options preferred by most Republicans.

While President Trump has talked about wanting to replace the ACA during his campaign, just 1 in 6 voters (16%) say that he has a plan to do so. Even among Republican voters, just 3 in 10 say that President Trump has a plan to replace the ACA.On the flip side, while the ACA was originally enacted during Biden’s tenure as vice president, just half of the public says he had either a major (21%) or minor (28%) role in its passage. Democrats ages 50 and older are most likely to say President Biden played a role in the ACA becoming law. Most adults want the law’s prohibition on insurers from denying coverage based on pre-existing medical conditions to stay. Two thirds (67%) of the public say that it is “very important” that this provision remain in place, including most Republicans (54%) However, only about 4 in 10 people (39%) are aware that that provision is part of the ACA.The poll also finds gaps in the public’s knowledge about the ACA’s impact on health coverage. While the share of adults under age 65 who are uninsured has fallen sharply since the ACA’s enactment, just over a third (35%) of the public correctly says the uninsured rate has gone down since the law’s enactment, while similar shares incorrectly say it has gone up (32%) or stayed the same (31%).

The poll findings are featured in two reports: a main report that captures the main findings on health costs, the Affordable Care Act, and the election, and a companion report that looks at differences in the economic views and priorities for adults based on their economic circumstances.

Designed and analyzed by public opinion researchers at KFF, the survey was conducted from January 30-February 7, 2024, online and by telephone among a nationally representative sample of 1,309 U.S. adults, including 1,055 registered voters. Interviews were conducted in English and in Spanish. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points for the full sample and the registered voter sample. For results based on other subgroups, the margin of sampling error may be higher.

News Release

KFF Health News and CBS News Win 2023 George Polk Award for Medical Reporting

Published: Feb 19, 2024

KFF Health News won the 2023 George Polk Award for Medical Journalism for its year-long investigation with CBS News into the failure of FDA-approved medical devices that were suspected of contributing to thousands of injuries and patient deaths.

The George Polk Awards were established in 1949 by Long Island University to commemorate George Polk, a CBS correspondent murdered in 1948 while covering the Greek Civil War. The awards place a premium on investigative and enterprising reporting that gains attention and achieves results.

The investigation, “When Medical Devices Malfunction,“ brought to light deep flaws in FDA oversight of a series of devices, including:

  • Artificial knee implants that wore out prematurely;
  • Metal hip implants that snapped in two and led to urgent surgeries;
  • Last-resort heart pumps that may have caused or contributed to thousands of patient deaths;
  • Insulin pumps that are blamed for contributing to at least a dozen patient deaths; and,
  • A dental device that lawsuits alleged caused catastrophic harm to teeth and jawbones.

“This investigation revealed the deeply significant, and sometimes deadly, impact of flawed devices and oversight, and is part of our continuing work across KFF to show how people are affected by health policy,” said Dr. Drew Altman, president and chief executive officer, KFF.

“When Medical Devices Malfunction“ was reported by Fred Schulte, an investigative reporter at KFF Health News, Holly K. Hacker, the data editor at KFF Health News, Daniel Chang, the Florida correspondent at KFF Health News, Brett Kelman, a correspondent at KFF Health News, Anna Werner, the national consumer investigative correspondent at CBS News, and Nicole Keller, consumer investigative producer at CBS. It is Schulte’s and Werner’s second Polk award.

About KFF Health News’ Partnership with CBS News

The reporting in “When Medical Devices Malfunction“ was done in partnership with CBS News to investigate the safety of devices suspected of causing patient harm and explore the FDA’s process for assuring patient safety. Reporters from KFF Health News and CBS reviewed FDA data and court records and conducted many interviews with patients, device manufactures, FDA officials, consumer advocates, and others.

The investigation stems from a broader editorial partnership between CBS News and KFF Health News. The editorial partnership also features regular appearances by Dr. Céline Gounder, KFF Health News’ senior fellow and editor-at-large for public health, on CBS News, the popular “Bill of the Month” series, in which KFF Health News editor-in-chief Elisabeth Rosenthal appears regularly on “CBS Mornings” to discuss surprising medical bills, and the KFF Health News “Health Minute,” a weekly feature for CBS News Radio stations that helps millions of listeners understand how developments in health care delivery and policy affect them.

About KFF and KFF Health News

KFF is the independent source for health policy research, polling, and journalism. Our mission is to serve as a nonpartisan source of information for policymakers, the media, the health policy community, and the public. KFF Health News is a national newsroom that produces in-depth and award-winning journalism about health issues and is one of the core operating programs at KFF. Other major KFF programs include Policy Analysis; KFF Polling and Survey Research; and KFF Social Impact Media, which conducts specialized public health information campaigns. A new program on Health Misinformation and Trust is under development.

Section 1115 Waiver Watch: Continuous Eligibility Waivers

Published: Feb 15, 2024

Note: For the latest information on states with approved and pending waivers to extend multi-year continuous eligibility for children, view our Section 1115 tracker “Key Themes Maps.

The pandemic continuous enrollment provision and other research show that continuous eligibility reduces Medicaid disenrollment and “churn” rates and helps to ensure stable coverage. Guaranteeing 12-month continuous coverage for children has long been an option in Medicaid and CHIP without a waiver, but not for adults. The Consolidated Appropriations Act required all states to implement 12-month continuous eligibility for children beginning on January 1, 2024. As many Medicaid enrollees are currently experiencing disruptions in coverage as a result of the Medicaid unwinding, a number of states are pursuing strategies to help promote continuity of coverage, including through unwinding waivers and Section 1115 demonstration waivers. This Waiver Watch summarizes approved and pending Section 1115 waivers with continuous eligibility provisions for children and adults in Medicaid.

What is continuous eligibility?

States are required to provide 12-month continuous eligibility for children in Medicaid and CHIP. Continuous eligibility generally allows individuals to remain enrolled for a specific period even if there are fluctuations in income. States have long had the option to provide 12 months of continuous eligibility to children (under age 19) without a waiver, and many states (23 as of January 2023) had taken up that option for all children in Medicaid and CHIP (additional states had adopted 12-month continuous eligibility for only some children or only children in CHIP). However, the Consolidated Appropriations Act required all states to implement 12-month continuous eligibility for all children in Medicaid and CHIP beginning on January 1, 2024. Additional guidance issued on October 27, 2023 prohibits states from terminating coverage of children enrolled in CHIP for failure to pay premiums. Under the previous 12-month continuous eligibility option, states were permitted to disenroll children in CHIP during the continuous eligibility period if a family did not pay their premiums; this exception to continuous eligibility was not available in Medicaid. On February 1, 2024, the state of Florida filed a lawsuit against HHS challenging the implementation of the law, asserting states should be allowed to terminate CHIP coverage (during the 12-month period) when premium payments are not made.

Under current law, states cannot provide continuous eligibility for adults without a Section 1115 waiver submitted to the federal government. States cannot require a renewal process for Medicaid coverage for adults who are eligible based on income more than once every 12 months. While states may conduct renewals for individuals who qualify for Medicaid based on age or disability more than once every 12 months, most states conduct annual renewals for these groups. However, because states cannot guarantee continuous eligibility for adults absent a waiver, adults may lose coverage if there are “changes in circumstance,” including changes in family income, during the year. Enrollees are required to report changes in circumstances, and some states conduct periodic electronic data matches between renewal periods to identify changes in circumstance.

Continuous eligibility has been shown to reduce Medicaid disenrollment and “churn” rates. Churn occurs when individuals temporarily lose Medicaid coverage and then re-enroll within a short period of time suggesting they are experiencing short-term changes in income or difficulty completing the renewal process. When individuals churn on and off coverage, the gaps in coverage may limit access to care or lead to delays in getting needed care, which can be especially problematic for young children who receive frequent screenings and check-ups. Research has found continuous eligibility for Medicaid is associated with improved child health. While continuous eligibility increases coverage costs due to longer average eligibility periods, there are also administrative costs associated with disenrolling individuals and then subsequently processing new applications.

How are states using 1115 waivers to provide extended continuous eligibility for children?

As of February 15, 2024, three states have approved Section 1115 demonstration waivers to provide multi-year continuous eligibility to children (Table 1). Section 1115 waivers allow states to obtain federal approval to operate Medicaid programs in ways that differ from federal standards and requirements. In September 2022, CMS approved Oregon’s waiver to implement continuous eligibility for children from birth to age six as well as 24 months of continuous eligibility for nearly all enrollees ages six and older. Since then, CMS has approved multi-year continuous eligibility requests for children in Washington and New Mexico. Hawaii, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania have requests pending with CMS.

A number of states are developing waivers to provide multi-year continuous eligibility to children. Several states have waiver proposals under development that have recently been released for state-level public comment (California, Colorado, and New York) that include multi-year continuous eligibility for children (Table 1). Other tracking shows state activity, including legislation directing the state Medicaid agency to seek approval for multi-year continuous eligibility for children, in Illinois, Ohio and the District of Columbia. In December 2023, growing concern over loss of Medicaid coverage for children prompted federal officials to issue additional guidance with strategies to protect coverage; one strategy CMS highlighted in its guidance is providing multi-year continuous eligibility for children through Section 1115 demonstration authority.

States can use Section 1115 waivers to extend multi-year continuous eligibility to children.

What options do states have to provide continuous eligibility for adults?

As of February 15, 2024, five states have approved Section 1115 waivers to provide varying lengths of continuous eligibility to certain adults (Table 2). Oregon provides 24 months of continuous eligibility to nearly all enrollees over age six. New York and New Jersey provide 12-month continuous eligibility to all income-eligible Medicaid adults. Kansas provides 12-month continuous eligibility to parents and caretaker relatives. Massachusetts provides 12-month continuous eligibility for individuals following release from a correctional institution and 24-month continuous eligibility for individuals under age 65 experiencing homelessness for at least 6 months; however, the state is seeking CMS approval to expand 12-month continuous eligibility to all adults (including those eligible based on income, age, or disability status) and 24 months of continuous eligibility to all adults experiencing homelessness. Minnesota is seeking to provide 12-month continuous eligibility to young adults ages 19 and 20, and Pennsylvania is seeking to provide 12-month continuous eligibility to individuals that qualify for proposed reentry services following release from a correctional facility.

As of February 2024, five states have implemented 12-month continuous eligibility for certain adults.

Looking Ahead

Experience during the pandemic demonstrated that continuous enrollment can ensure stable coverage and reduce churn. While increased enrollment may result in increased overall costs, the policy can also improve health outcomes and potentially lead to some longer-term savings due to less fragmented care. While the unwinding of the pandemic-era continuous enrollment provision is leading to high rates of procedural disenrollments and is expected to increase the number of people who are uninsured longer term, mandatory 12-month continuous eligibility for children as well as new continuous eligibility policies that some states are pursuing through 1115 waivers can help to provide more stable coverage once the unwinding period ends.

What Would Another Trump Presidency Mean for Health Care?

Published: Feb 15, 2024

In this JAMA Health Forum column,  Larry Levitt, KFF’s Executive Vice President for Health Policy, explores what a second Trump presidency would mean for health care based on President Trump’s record and remarks, and concludes that a new term likely would result in efforts to weaken the Affordable Care Act, reduce federal Medicaid costs, restrict abortion access to abortion, and scale back benefits for immigrants.