How Corporate Executives View Rising Health Care Cost and the Role of Government

Authors: Gary Claxton, Larry Levitt, Shawn Gremminger, Bill Kramer, and Matthew Rae
Published: Apr 29, 2021

Introduction

With the events of past year, how we view health care in the United States is changing. The COVID pandemic has made even more clear the problems with our current system, including high costs, incomplete coverage, limited access to care, under-investment in public health, and serious racial and ethnic inequities. All of this, occurring against a backdrop of ever-rising health care costs, is causing many to re-think their priorities and positions on key health care policy issues.

In addition, the recent election has changed the political landscape and extended the range of policy options that likely will be discussed at the national level. During his campaign, President Biden proposed new coverage options that would broaden access to public coverage. One would create a Medicare-like public health coverage option that some people could elect in lieu of their current coverage. Another would lower the age of eligibility for Medicare to age 60. In addition, there appears to be bipartisan support for strengthening antitrust enforcement and limiting anti-competitive actions that are used by some health care entities to gain market power and increase prices, including proposals that would regulate or cap prices for high-cost drugs. Each of these proposals interject an expanded public role in providing coverage and restraining costs for populations that are largely now served by private health plans. Since these proposals are controversial and likely to face opposition from large parts of the health care industry, it is important to assess the level of support among key stakeholders.

Large employers are a primary source of private coverage, and thus are important stakeholders who will be influential in policy debates. Their views on health policy issues, however, are largely unknown. Many assume that business leaders tend to favor market solutions and oppose government involvement, but this is untested. Our objective was to find out what business leaders felt about health care issues – especially cost and coverage – and their opinions about potential government actions to address these problems.

To better understand how large employers may react to these and similar proposals, the Purchaser (formerly “Pacific”) Business Group on Health (PBGH) and the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) surveyed executive decision-makers at over 300 large private employers about how they view the costs of health care and health coverage and the potential advantages and disadvantages of increasing the government’s role in providing health coverage and reducing costs. The interviews were conducted in December 2020 and January 2021 by Beresford Research. The research project was supported by a grant from the Gary and Mary West Health Institute.

At a high level, we found significant concerns regarding health care costs. A significant majority of responding large employers “moderately” (49%), considerably (28%), or “strongly” (6%) agreed that the cost of health benefits is excessive. Employers did not blame any single cause for excessive costs, with large shares agreeing that the cost of prescription drugs, provider market consolidation and increased market power, volume-based payments, and unhealthy behaviors each are “moderate” or “considerable” or “very large” factors for high costs.

In addition, we found a significant amount of agreement with the need for greater government roles in providing coverage and addressing health care costs. A majority of responding large employers expressed some level of agreement with policy changes that would create a public option for employees and lower the Medicare eligibility age, both for their own employees and for the public more generally. Equally interesting, only small shares expressed disagreement with these ideas.

Majorities of responding large employers also expressed agreement with the need for more government involvement in containing health care costs. Interventions including capping hospital prices in non-competitive markets, limiting out-of-network charges, and negotiating or limiting drug prices in certain cases all had majority support. There was considerable support for pursuing policies that would increase transparency of prices and costs and that would increase antitrust enforcement or otherwise address non-competitive conduct. Overall, large shares of respondents agreed that a greater role for the government in providing coverage and containing health care costs would better for their business (83%) and better for their employees (86%).

Findings

APPROACH

PBGH and KFF worked with Beresford Research to survey key decision-makers at large U.S. employers that provide health benefits to their employees. Respondents were surveyed about their views around the cost of health benefits and potential expansion of government roles in providing benefit alternatives and in addressing health care costs. The survey was designed by researchers at KFF, PBGH, and Beresford Research. Telephone surveys were completed by Beresford Research with a convenience sample of representatives from 302 employers with at least 5,000 employees, widely distributed by region and industry. Respondents were chief executive officers, chief financial officers, chief operational officers, chief human resource officers, or people directly reporting to those positions. A detailed breakout of respondents is shown (see Toplines). Follow-up conversations were completed with 10 of the respondents to get additional information and perspective on their views. The telephone surveys were completed in December 2020 and January 2021. KFF and PBGH researchers analyzed the responses and prepared this report.

BACKGROUND

Health benefits make up a meaningful share of employee compensation, averaging 7.3 percent for private-sector employers. While annual growth in benefit costs has been modest in recent years (at least relative to prior decades), benefit costs are already high and they continue to increase faster than wages and prices in general. Employer health plans already pay much higher prices for health care goods and services than public coverage programs, and the gap is growing. Provider consolidation, particularly among hospitals, limits the potential for competitive strategies to reduce benefit costs. Pricing for new pharmaceutical products, where manufacturers have significant power to set prices, also fuels cost growth. Innovative approaches developed by employers and other payers to address costs (e.g., centers of excellence for back surgeries; expanding virtual care alternatives; value-based cost-sharing) may affect the rate of cost growth, but they have had little impact on reducing cost levels or reducing the gap with respect to public payment rates.

The recent election brought into office policymakers, including the new President, who support more expansive governmental roles in both coverage and cost containment. As a candidate, President Biden proposed providing people with the choice to enroll in a new public health insurance option, similar to Medicare, that would negotiate prices with health care providers. The option would be broadly available, including to employees and family members now covered through employer-based coverage. People offered employer-based plans generally are not eligible for this assistance now, though President Biden’s campaign plan would remove that restriction. Candidate Biden also proposed, as part of the Biden-Sanders Unity Task Force proposals, that people be given the option of enrolling in Medicare when they turned age 60.

In terms of health care costs, President Biden made several proposals to restrain prices and cost growth that could assist sponsors and enrollees in employer-based plans including government negotiating of drug prices, limiting price growth for new brand, biotech, and certain generic drugs, aggressively using anti-trust authority to address consolidation in health care markets, restricting surprise medical bills, and accelerating the development and use of generic drugs and biosimilars.

FINDINGS

The responding employers largely believe that the cost of health benefits is excessive. While in general respondents felt that employers individually or collectively can have an impact on health care costs, more than four in five believe that the cost of providing health benefits will become unsustainable at some point in the next five to ten years, and that there will need to be a greater role for government in providing coverage and controlling costs. Respondents generally expressed some agreement with a variety of policies that would expand the government’s role in health benefits, including limiting provider prices in non-competitive situations and expanding options for employees and others to enroll in public programs.

Cost of Health Benefits

Nearly all respondents agreed that health benefit costs are excessive. About half (49%) of respondents moderately agreed with the statement that employer costs for health benefits are excessive, with another 33% considerably or strongly agreeing. Only 4% of respondents disagreed with the statement.

Respondents did not single out any one factor as the primary reason for excessive costs. We asked respondents about the importance of four contributors to high health care costs: prescription drug prices; market consolidation among hospital and health care provider consolidation (with increased market power to raise prices); unhealthful behaviors among large segments of the population; and payments to hospitals and clinicians based on volume of services and not on patient outcomes. The pattern of responses was similar for each, with large shares of respondents saying that each was a “moderate” or “considerable” reason for high costs.

Although respondents largely agreed that the cost of health benefits is excessive, large shares believe that employers can change the cost of health care to some extent, both overall and for their own companies. Over half (56%) of respondents agreed that employers collectively can change health care costs to a moderate extent, with another 29% agreeing that employers can change costs to a considerable or large extent. For their own companies, 42% said that they could change health care costs to a moderate extent while 35% said that they could change costs to a considerable or large extent.

When asked why they believed that employers could influence costs, respondents mentioned things such as the ability to adjust employee costs (deductibles and worker contributions) or benefits as well as the potential of wellness programs to moderate costs. Others noted that many factors were outside of employer control. Large shares of respondents said that they were at least moderately likely to implement one or more cost-control practices, ranging from value-based benefit designs to higher deductibles.

Even while a majority of respondents felt that they could change the costs of health care, 87% of respondents believe that the cost of providing health benefits to employees will become unsustainable in the next 5 to 10 years, and 85% believe that there will need to be greater government roles in providing coverage and containing costs.

Greater Government Roles in Cost and Coverage

Respondents overwhelmingly believe that a greater government role in providing coverage and containing costs would be better for their business (83%) and better for their employees (86%). Respondents who said that a greater government role might be better for their business or their employees were asked why they thought so; among those who believed it would be better for their business, 43% said that it could reduce employee premium costs and 42% said that it could reduce costs for employers. Other potential benefits mentioned by these respondents included improving employee health and productivity and providing more benefit options for employees.

We asked respondents about their support for more specific government policies that would increase the government’s role in controlling health care costs, particularly in non-competitive market situations. Large shares of respondents agreed that policymakers should pursue policies that would strengthen anti-trust enforcement and prohibit anti-competitive conduct by providers, pharmaceutical manufacturers, and health plans (92%) or improve the transparency of prices and the total cost of care (90%). Although less well supported, 56% of respondents thought policymakers should pursue policies to reduce barriers to the development and use of generic drugs and biosimilar products.

Many respondents also expressed some support for more direct government intervention in health care pricing in certain circumstances. More than one-third of respondents “somewhat” or “strongly” agreed with government policies that would cap prices for hospitals in markets with limited or no competition; limit prices charged by out-of-network providers in surprise billing situations, and negotiate prices for high-cost sole-source drugs or setting limits on drug price increases. Fewer than 5% of respondents expressed any disagreement with any of these potential interventions.

In addition to policies to directly control health care prices and spending, we asked respondents about two proposals made by President Biden during his campaign that would extend public benefit coverage options to more people, including people with employment-based coverage. The first would create a public program option, similar to Medicare, broadly available to residents, and the second would provide people the option of enrolling in Medicare when they reach age 60.

These proposals could be of interest to employers because they are potential alternatives to the employment-based benefits that they offer, and which could be available to employees at the employee’s option. Depending on the financing, these options could reduce employer costs by reducing plan enrollment; this could be particularly significant in the case of lowering the Medicare eligibility age because older workers have some of the highest costs on average in employer plans. At the same time, providing options to employees could be disruptive to employer plans and upset planning, at least at the outset, and particularly if employees could move back and forth. Employers also may be concerned that they may be asked to participate in the financing of these options, which could offset any potential cost savings.

Respondents were asked about their level agreement with these two proposals, for either the general public or for their employees. Overall, large shares of responding employers expressed at least slight agreement with each proposal, both for the public in general and for their own employees. Perhaps surprising, few respondents expressed any level of disagreement with the options, with virtually no strong disagreement expressed by any respondent. This lack of disagreement may reflect the lack of detail about how these coverage options might operate or be financed, but it appears that employers may be open to this type of proposal and not opposed in general to extending public coverage options to more people, including their own employees.

More generally, we also asked respondents for their opinions about several potential advantages and disadvantages that could result from greater government roles in health care coverage and costs. As potential positives, about three in five respondents agreed that a greater government role might relieve employers of the responsibility and costs of managing health benefits, with a similar percentage agreeing that it may enable the government to hold down health care costs. Forty-seven percent of respondents said that a greater government role may enable increased consumer choices, while only 29% said that it could reduce administrative costs. As potential negatives, 43% said that the government does not have a great track record of managing big programs effectively, 41% said that the political influence of the health care industry would deter government actions to reduce costs, and 30% said that the government may not be able to design benefits to meet employee needs.

DISCUSSION

The business executives we surveyed showed perhaps a surprising degree of openness to proposals that would increase government roles in health care. Judging from some of the follow-up interviews, this openness appears to be less reflective of a belief that the government operates programs better or more effectively than the private sector, and more reflective of a long-standing frustration with the health care system and what are perceived to be constant and excessive increases in costs with little transparency into why they occur. More than four in five respondents agreed that the cost of providing health benefits would become unsustainable in the not too distant future and that this would necessitate a greater government role in providing coverage and restraining costs. As one respondent noted in a follow-up interview, “if it’s not the government stepping in, who would it be?”

While many respondents are confident that they can affect their own benefit costs at least to some degree, the primary levers they mentioned – increasing employee costs or reducing benefits – are not necessarily appealing or consistent with the goal of having an attractive benefit package for current and prospective employees. From this perspective, proposals to cap or limit prices in cases where markets are not working may be attractive to business executives because they offer employees some respite from high prices without reducing benefits or increasing enrollee costs. One respondent noted in the follow-up interviews about why he felt that government intervention was needed:

Over the long-term, yes. I think it will be business’ approach to continue to cut costs and cut benefits to control costs, simply because we don’t have the scale with which to really affect the change in the cost to us as well as we would want to. The end result is our employees get less benefits and use more of their take-home pay towards their share of their benefits to subsidize what the employer needs. I do think the model has to change because we’re going to be delivering less value to our employees unless the model does change and more pressure is put back in control of pricing to the providers and to the healthcare system generally.

The proposals to expand government programs also may be seen as an opportunity for employers to offload some of their costs, which may explain the clear openness to the ideas without any strong disagreement. In particular, providing people age 60 with the option to enroll in Medicare could help employers with some of their most costly enrollees. While the financing and benefit details associated with these proposals will be very important in how employers ultimately assess them, what seems clear from the responses is that respondents were more worried about the status quo than the prospect of a greater government role in providing health coverage alternatives for their workers.

The new political landscape may portend a new and more viable discussion of expanded roles for government in providing health coverage and restraining prices and costs. While this has long been controversial, the results of this study suggest that the employers are frustrated by the current health care system and their limited opportunities to address cost and that they may be open to options that involve a broader role for government.

This work was supported in part by the West Health Institute. We value our funders. KFF maintains full editorial control over all of its policy analysis, polling, and journalism activities.

 

News Release

Vast Majority of Large Employers Surveyed Say Broader Government Role Will Be Necessary to Control Health Costs and Provide Coverage, Survey Finds

Most Business Leaders Favor Increased Anti-Trust Enforcement, Prohibitions on Anti-Competitive Practices, Capping Drug and Hospital Prices in Non-Competitive Markets; A Public Option and Lower Medicare Eligibility Age Seen as Viable Options

Published: Apr 29, 2021

Top executives at nearly 90% of large employers surveyed believe the cost of providing health benefits to employees will become unsustainable in the next five-to-10 years, and 85% expect the government will be required to intervene to provide coverage and contain costs, according to a new survey released today from Purchaser Business Group on Health (PBGH) and KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation), with support from the West Health Institute.

The research exposes large employers’ mounting concerns about the future of employer-sponsored coverage, with 87% of respondents saying they believe that the cost of providing health benefits to employees will become unsustainable in the next five to 10 years.

More than 300 executive decisionmakers at companies with over 5,000 employees responded to the survey in December 2020 and January 2021. The survey report was released today in advance of a web briefing jointly held by PBGH and KFF examining the views of business leaders on health policy.

“This survey highlights what we’ve understood for some time: The current health care system is on an unsustainable path,” said Elizabeth Mitchell, President and Chief Executive Officer of PBGH. “Our large employer members support competition and prefer market solutions. But they have reached their limit; they’re tired of pouring tons of money into a broken health care market that delivers uneven quality at bloated costs.”

Annual family premiums for employer-sponsored health insurance reached $21,342 in 2020, up 55% since 2010 and increased at a rate at least twice that of both wages (27%) and inflation (19%). During the same period, the average single employee deductible increased from $917 to $1,644 among workers with a deductible.

Employer health plans are already paying much higher prices for health care goods and services than public plans: Hospitals across the country charge employers and private insurance companies an average of 2.5 times what they get from Medicare for the same care, and three or more times Medicare prices in a half-dozen states.

“Any efforts to expand public coverage options or restrain prices will be met with strong opposition from the health care industry,” said Larry Levitt, Executive Vice President for Health Policy at KFF and an author of the report. “Employers, who foot much of the nation’s health care bill, could be a powerful counterweight.”

“Skyrocketing health care costs pose a significant threat to the prosperity of business and American workers. Every extra dollar spent on health care is one less dollar available for wages, investments and other essential business expenses,” said Shelley Lyford, President and Chief Executive Officer for West Health.

“Employers are getting a raw deal and they need to leverage their collective power in Washington to inspire action from lawmakers – particularly at a time when the economy is reeling from a pandemic.”

Among the central takeaways from the PBGH-KFF-West Health Survey:

Four-in-five respondents (87%) believe the cost of providing health benefits will become unsustainable in the next five to 10 years.

85% of respondents said the government will be required to play a greater role in providing health care coverage and containing costs in the next five-to-10 years; 83% said such actions would be better for their business and 86% said these actions would be better for their employees.

92% of respondents believe policymakers should pursue policies that would strengthen anti-trust enforcement and prohibit anti-competitive conduct by providers, pharmaceutical manufacturers and health plans; 90% would support actions that improved the transparency of prices and the total cost of care.

More than one-third of respondents somewhat or strongly agreed with government policies that would cap prices for hospitals in markets with limited or no competition; limit prices charged by out-of-network providers; and negotiate prices for high-cost, sole-source drugs or set limits on drug price increases.

Relatively few respondents generally disagreed with proposals that would lower the age of Medicare eligibility to age 60 or create a new public plan coverage option, either for their own employees or the general public. This lack of disagreement may reflect the absence of detail about how these options ultimately could play out, but employers nonetheless appear open to extending public coverage options to more individuals, including their own employees.

Mitchell of PBGH concluded: “Clearly, a consensus has emerged among those who foot the bills that the health care industry is not taking seriously enough the impact of rising costs that fail to correlate with higher quality health care.”

The KFF-PBGH survey was conducted between December 2020 and January 2021 by Beresford Research in partnership with the Gary and Mary West Health Institute (West Health). The telephone survey was designed by researchers at KFF, PBGH and Beresford Research, and relied on convenience sample of opinion from representatives of 302 employers with at least 5,000 employees. The responding organizations were widely distributed by region and industry. Individual respondents included chief executive officers, chief operational officers, chief human resource officers, or individuals directly reporting to these positions. Follow-up conversations were conducted with 10 of the respondents to gain additional information and insight.

About Purchaser Business Group on Health. PBGH is a nonprofit coalition representing nearly 40 private employers and public entities across the U.S. that collectively spend $100 billion annually purchasing health care services for more than 15 million Americans and their families. In partnership with large employers and other health care purchasers, PBGH initiatives are designed to test innovative operational programs and scale successful approaches that lower health care costs and increase quality across the U.S.

About KFF. Filling the need for trusted information on national health issues, KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation) is a nonprofit organization based in San Francisco, California.

About West Health. Solely funded by philanthropists Gary and Mary West, West Health is a family of nonprofit and nonpartisan organizations including the Gary and Mary West Foundation and Gary and Mary West Health Institute in San Diego, and the Gary and Mary West Health Policy Center in Washington, D.C. West Health is dedicated to lowering healthcare costs to enable seniors to successfully age in place with access to high-quality, affordable health and support services that preserve and protect their dignity, quality of life and independence. Learn more at westhealth.org and follow @westhealth.

 

Federal Medicaid Outlays During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Authors: Madeline Guth, Robin Rudowitz, and Rachel Garfield
Published: Apr 27, 2021

This data note analyzes federal Medicaid outlays before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the one year since the onset of the pandemic, federal Medicaid outlays totaled $500.8 billion and grew by 19.5%, compared to 6.3% growth in the one year before the pandemic. The first fiscal quarter of the pandemic (April to June 2020) saw particularly high outlays due to the beginning of enhanced federal Medicaid funds. Outlays remained high in the following three quarters (July 2020 through March 2021), reflecting this continued enhanced federal match as well as increased enrollment.

The outlay data analyzed in this data note comes from The Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the United States Government. The Bureau of the Fiscal Service (part of the U.S. Department of the Treasury) publishes these Monthly Treasury Statements, which summarize the financial activities of the U.S. federal government including receipts and outlays of funds. Specifically, this data note analyzes the Treasury data on outlays of the federal government classified as “grants to states for Medicaid.”1   This analysis examines quarterly and yearly outlays to understand the implications of the pandemic and the enhanced federal matching funds. Prior to the pandemic, states reported only incremental changes to Medicaid enrollment and spending, generally driven by rising prescription drug costs, incremental provider rate increases, and, in a small number of states, recent implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansion.2  Comparing quarterly outlays for the years before and during the pandemic allows for a comparison to what may be more typical quarterly variation.

As part of the federal response to the COVID-19 pandemic, states may access enhanced federal Medicaid funds. States and the federal government jointly finance Medicaid. The pandemic has generated both a public health crisis and an economic crisis, with major implications for Medicaid, a countercyclical program. During economic downturns, more people enroll in Medicaid as incomes fall, increasing program spending at the same time state tax revenues may be falling. To both support Medicaid and provide broad fiscal relief as state revenues declined precipitously, the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA) authorized a 6.2 percentage point increase in the federal Medicaid match rate (“FMAP”) (retroactive to January 1, 2020) available if states meet certain “maintenance of eligibility” (MOE) requirements. This FMAP increase does not apply to the Affordable Care Act expansion group, for which the federal government already pays 90% of costs. States could draw down the increased federal matching funds beginning at the end of March for claims paid in the first quarter of 2020 and in early April for the second quarter of 2020.3  The FMAP increase will expire at the end of the quarter in which the public health emergency (PHE).

In the one year since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, federal Medicaid outlays grew by 19.5%, compared to 6.3% growth in the one year before the pandemic (Figure 1). Total outlays in the four fiscal quarters since the pandemic (April 2020 through March 2021) were $500.8 billion, representing a 19.5% increase over the prior year’s outlays of $419.1 billion. After the onset of the COVID-10 pandemic and the passage of the FFCRA in March 2020, quarterly outlays in Quarter 3 of FFY 2020 (April through June 2020) were $127.4 billion, an increase of 22.5% over Quarter 3 outlays in the prior year. This initial increase likely reflects Medicaid claims retroactive to January that were made available at the end of March as well as enhanced matching funds for the second quarter. After this initial spike in outlays immediately following the FMAP increase, quarterly outlays have been somewhat lower but still significantly higher than the prior year. This trend reflects the continued enhanced federal match as well as increased enrollment due to requirements that states maintain continuous coverage for Medicaid enrollees to access the enhanced match and also to the economic downturn.

Figure 1: Federal Medicaid outlays have increased by 19.5% in the year since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.

Continued growth in federal Medicaid outlays through March 2021 (the end of the second quarter of FFY 2021) likely reflects federal matching for increased state Medicaid spending during the pandemic. National data shows an increase in Medicaid enrollment of 10.8% from February to November 2020, a reversal of trends prior to the pandemic when enrollment was declining. While the enhanced FMAP shifts some state spending on this increased enrollment to the federal government, the sustained federal outlay growth in the quarters after the FMAP increase first took effect likely reflects overall Medicaid spending growth that is experienced at the state-level as well as the federal level. State spending growth during the pandemic likely varies across states based on economic conditions as well as the populations experiencing increased enrollment in each state (for example, increases in expansion enrollment would result in smaller increases in state spending due to the 90% federal match rate for this population).

The duration of federal fiscal relief to state Medicaid programs during the pandemic, which will affect both state and federal Medicaid spending in the future. The enhanced FMAP provides federal fiscal relief that helps replace state spending, so federal Medicaid spending growth may continue to outpace state spending growth while the enhanced FMAP is in place. When the fiscal relief expires, federal spending growth will fall and state spending growth will increase sharply. Although the current PHE declaration expires on July 20, 2021 (which means the enhanced FMAP is slated to expire at the end of September 2021), the Biden Administration has indicated that the PHE will likely remain in place throughout 2021 and that states will receive 60 days’ notice prior to its expiration or termination. This announcement means that the FMAP increase is likely to continue through at least the end of March 2022. The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 expanded the FMAP to 100% for the administration of COVID-19 vaccines to Medicaid enrollees and also provided options for states to receive additional temporary FMAP increases, including for expanded home and community-based services and as an incentive for new adoption of the ACA Medicaid expansion. These increases will likely shift additional Medicaid spending from states to the federal government.

  1. The March 2021 Monthly Treasury Statement can be accessed at https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/current.html and all others included in this data note (April 2018 through February 2020) can be accessed at https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/mts/previous.html. The data included in this date note is from the row titled “Grants to States for Medicaid” in Table 5 of these statements, titled “Outlays of the U.S. Government.” These grants to state Medicaid programs are included in the federal government’s total outlays to the Department of Health and Human Services. These grants do not include outlays to the Children’s Health Insurance Fund (CHIP). ↩︎
  2. Two states (Maine and Virginia) implemented Medicaid expansion under the ACA in January 2019 and two others states (Idaho and Utah) implemented the expansion in January 2020. These expansions may contribute to higher federal Medicaid outlays in the quarter that expansion was implemented. Similarly, Nebraska’s implementation of expansion in October 2020 may contribute to higher federal Medicaid outlays in the first quarter of FFY 2021. ↩︎
  3. CMS, COVID-19 FAQs for State Medicaid and CHIP Agencies, Section 5.F (updated as of 1/6/2021), https://www.medicaid.gov/state-resource-center/downloads/covid-19-faqs.pdf. ↩︎
News Release

Lowering the Age of Medicare Eligibility Would Likely Reduce Health Spending for Employers, But Raise Costs for the Federal Government by Covering More People in Medicare

Medicare’s Lower Provider Payment Rates Would Contribute to Lower Spending on Older Adults Moving From Employer Coverage

Published: Apr 27, 2021

Two new KFF analyses find that lowering the age of Medicare eligibility from 65 to 60 could significantly reduce health spending for employers, who could potentially pass savings to employees in the form of lower premiums or higher wages.

Additionally, per person health spending for older adults who move from employer coverage on to Medicare would likely be lower, though such moves would shift costs to taxpayers and increase Medicare program expenditures overall.

President Biden proposed lowering the age of Medicare eligibility to 60 during the presidential campaign, with the goal of broadening coverage and making health coverage affordable for older adults.

To illustrate the potential for employer savings, one analysis shows that lowering the age of Medicare eligibility to 60 could reduce costs for employer health plans by as much as 15 percent if all eligible employees shifted from employer plans to Medicare. Similarly, costs for employer plans could drop by as much as 30 percent if all people age 55 and over were no longer in employer-sponsored insurance, the analysis finds, and by up to 43 percent if everyone 50 and older chose to enroll in Medicare. The actual impact on health spending for employers would depend on how many older workers shifted from employer coverage to Medicare.

The savings in employer plans would come from employers covering fewer older adults, who tend to have higher health care spending than younger enrollees.

A second analysis by KFF experts shows how 60- to 64-year-olds who move from employer plans to Medicare could be covered more cheaply because Medicare payments to hospitals, physicians and other health care providers are generally lower than what private insurance pays.

Average monthly health care spending (per person) for enrollees ages 60-64 in large employer plans is 38 percent higher than average monthly spending for traditional Medicare beneficiaries ages 65-69 ($1,061 vs. $770), despite the fact that health needs and service use tend to increase with age.

Lowering the age of Medicare eligibility could lower overall health care costs, but would also shift costs from employer plans to the Medicare program. Such a shift also would likely lead to lower revenues for hospitals, physicians, and providers who deliver care to older adults who choose Medicare over employer coverage.

The full analyses are available here:

The first analysis is only available on the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, an online information hub dedicated to monitoring and assessing the performance of the U.S. health system.For more data and analyses related to health reform, employer-sponsored insurance and Medicare, visit kff.org.

Health Spending for 60-64 Year Olds Would Be Lower Under Medicare Than Under Large Employer Plans

Authors: Matthew Rae, Juliette Cubanski, and Anthony Damico
Published: Apr 27, 2021

Medicare currently offers health insurance coverage to more than 60 million Americans ages 65 and older and younger adults with long-term disabilities. During the presidential campaign, President Biden proposed to lower Medicare’s eligibility age from 65 to 60, along with other policies to address health insurance coverage and affordability. Then-candidate Biden stated that the proposal would not affect Medicare’s Hospital Insurance trust fund or premiums for currently eligible Medicare beneficiaries, but other important policy design features have yet to be specified, including how it would be financed or administered. While many details are unknown, the proposal would potentially allow millions of adults to switch from non-group or employer plans to Medicare.

Lowering the age of Medicare eligibility from 65 to 60 would likely lead to lower revenues for hospitals, physicians, and providers who deliver care to 60-64 year olds. Provider payment rates from private plans tend to be considerably higher than those paid by Medicare; for example, large employer plans pay between 1.6 to 2.5 times more than Medicare for the same type of inpatient admission. Over time, the payment rate differential has been increasing. If private plans paid the same rates as Medicare, their spending would decrease by 41%, or over $350 billion in 2021.

The flipside of lowering provider reimbursement to Medicare payment rates for the 60-64 age cohort is the potential to reduce health care spending for people who shift from large employer plans to Medicare, potentially saving money for people, employers, and the federal government in the form of reduced tax subsidies for employer coverage. In this analysis, we use claims data for covered medical services from both large employer plans and traditional Medicare to illustrate the potential spending effects of using Medicare payment rates in lieu of higher rates paid by employer plans. There may be some differences in plan design and structure between Medicare and private insurance plans, though covered benefits are likely similar. (See Data and Methods for details.)

While health care spending increases with age within a given payer type, our analysis shows substantially higher per person spending among 60-64 year olds in large employer plans than among 65-69 year olds in Medicare, primarily reflecting the differences in payment rates noted above.

  • Average health care spending per person per month for enrollees ages 60-64 in large employer plans ($1,061) is 38% higher than average monthly spending for traditional Medicare beneficiaries ages 65-69 ($770) (Figure 1). This comparison understates the savings that could be realized by shifting 60-64 year olds to Medicare, since one would expect 65-69 year olds to have roughly 20-25% higher spending, because health needs rise with age.
  • Average monthly health care spending for large employer plan enrollees ages 60-64 is similar to that of traditional Medicare beneficiaries in their early 70s, who tend to use more health care services than people in the younger age cohort.

Our previous analysis of the difference between provider payment rates from private plans and Medicare suggests that the adoption of Medicare payment rates could reduce per enrollee health spending for those aged 55-64 by almost $4,000 dollars per year. This analysis suggests that lowering Medicare’s eligibility age would lower total and per capita health care spending for people who shift from large employer plans to Medicare, thereby generating savings for employers and potentially increasing the affordability of health care for these individuals, while also shifting costs to the federal government associated with coverage for 60-64 year olds. The exact savings possible and the trade-offs involved would on depend many policy details that have yet to be specified.

Matthew Rae and Juliette Cubanski are with KFF. Anthony Damico is an independent consultant.

This work was supported in part by Arnold Ventures. We value our funders. KFF maintains full editorial control over all of its policy analysis, polling, and journalism activities

Data and Methods

Large employer plans: We analyzed a sample of medical claims obtained from the 2018 IBM Health Analytics MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database, which contains claims information provided by large employer plans. We only included claims for people under the age of 65. This analysis used claims for almost 18 million people representing about 22% of the 82 million people in the large group market in 2018. Weights were applied to match counts in the Current Population Survey for enrollees at firms of a thousand or more workers by sex, age and state. Weights were trimmed at eight times the interquartile range. Costs include both amounts paid by enrollees in the form of cost-sharing and spending by the plan. These data reflect cost sharing incurred under the benefit plan, but do not include balance-billing payments that beneficiaries may make to health care providers for out-of-network services or out-of-pocket payments for non-covered services. In addition, total health spending includes spending on retail prescription drugs, and is not reduced by the amount of any rebates that a plan may receive.

Medicare: We analyzed 2018 claims from a 20% sample of Medicare beneficiaries from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Chronic Conditions Data Warehouse. The analysis includes 25.4 million traditional Medicare beneficiaries only, excluding beneficiaries enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans (for whom claims data are not available), beneficiaries who originally qualified for Medicare due to having end-stage renal disease or a long-term disability, and beneficiaries who were not enrolled in both Part A and Part B for each month of enrollment during 2018. Claims include spending on health care services covered by Medicare and exclude non-covered services. Total health spending reflects payments by Medicare and beneficiary liability, and includes spending on retail prescription drugs, which is not reduced by the amount of any rebates that a plan may receive.

To derive estimates of average monthly per capita spending for each age cohort, we calculated the sum total of spending for each month of enrollment for all beneficiaries included in the cohort and the sum of the number of months those beneficiaries were enrolled, and divided the sum total spending by the sum total number of months.

How Lowering the Medicare Eligibility Age Might Affect Employer-Sponsored Insurance Costs

Published: Apr 27, 2021

President Biden proposed lowering the age of Medicare eligibility to 60 during the presidential campaign, with the goal of broadening coverage and making health coverage affordable for older adults.

This analysis illustrates the potential for employer savings and finds that lowering the age of Medicare eligibility to 60 could reduce costs for employer health plans by as much as 15 percent if all eligible employees shifted from employer plans to Medicare. Similarly, costs for employer plans could drop by as much as 30 percent if all people age 55 and over were no longer in employer-sponsored insurance, the analysis finds, and by up to 43 percent if everyone 50 and older chose to enroll in Medicare. The actual impact on health spending for employers would depend on how many older workers shifted from employer coverage to Medicare.

The brief is available on the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, an online information hub dedicated to monitoring and assessing the performance of the U.S. health system.

News Release

KFF’s Kaiser Health News and “This American Life” Team Up for a Chilling Account of the Threats and Menace Upending the Lives of Local Health Officials

Published: Apr 26, 2021

In the course of the pandemic, health officers have become the face of local government authority. And, in turn, many have become targets for the rage and resentment of some of the same loose-knit militia and white nationalist groups that stormed the U.S. Capitol in January, smashing windows, bloodying officers and savagely chanting “Hang Mike Pence.”

Kaiser Health News joined forces with the iconic public radio team at This American Life to chronicle this disturbing trend through the lens of California’s Santa Cruz County. The county, though widely viewed as liberal and progressive, saw an escalating succession of threats, capped by the cold-blooded killing of a sheriff’s deputy, that have upended the lives of health leaders trying to navigate the covid response.

KHN senior correspondent Anna Maria Barry-Jester tells the story of Dr. Gail Newel, Santa Cruz County’s health officer, and her boss, Mimi Hall, the county’s health services director, who have soldiered on as legitimate debate over their covid-related public health orders has devolved into vitriol and sinister intimidation. Their daily routines now incorporate security patrols, surveillance cameras and, in some cases, personal firearms.

They are public servants who no longer feel safe in public.

This is KHN’s first collaboration with This American Life. It follows similar partnerships with the investigative public radio team at Reveal and St. Louis Public Radio.

Listen to the This American Life audio story, entitled “The Herd,” here. And read KHN’s companion digitalstory here.

About KFF and KHN

KHN (Kaiser Health News) is a national newsroom that produces in-depth journalism about health issues. Together with Policy Analysis and Polling, KHN is one of the three major operating programs at KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation). KFF is an endowed nonprofit organization providing information on health issues to the nation.

About This American Life

This American Life is an award-winning weekly public radio program and podcast hosted by Ira Glass. It is heard by 2 million listeners each week on over 500 public radio stations in the U.S., with another 2.8 million people downloading each episode as a podcast. The show is produced in collaboration with WBEZ Chicago and delivered to stations by PRX, Public Radio Exchange.

 

 

Poll Finding

KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: Vaccine Attitudes Among Essential Workers

Authors: Liz Hamel, Alauna Safarpour, Mellisha Stokes, and Mollyann Brodie
Published: Apr 23, 2021

Findings

The KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor is an ongoing research project tracking the public’s attitudes and experiences with COVID-19 vaccinations. Using a combination of surveys and qualitative research, this project tracks the dynamic nature of public opinion as vaccine development and distribution unfold, including vaccine confidence and acceptance, information needs, trusted messengers and messages, as well as the public’s experiences with vaccination.

Overview

There has been little research on how essential workers not employed in the health care sector have been impacted by the pandemic and their views on and experiences with COVID-19 vaccines. According to estimates from the latest KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor, these workers make up about three in ten of the total U.S. adult population. These workers are those whose work requires them to work outside of the home during the pandemic, and many of them perform crucial jobs that Americans depend on, such as factory or warehouse work, delivery drivers, construction jobs, school and childcare center workers, retail jobs such as grocery and hardware store clerks among other jobs.

This analysis of the March KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor examines the attitudes of those who identify as essential workers working outside their homes in non-health care settings. Despite many states prioritizing these workers during their vaccine rollouts, when compared to other employed adults these types of essential workers are less eager to get the vaccine right away, and a larger share express opposition to employer mandated vaccination.

Who ARE ESSENTIAL WORKERS?

For this analysis, essential workers are classified as anyone who self-identifies as being required to work full time or part time outside their home during the coronavirus outbreak. This analysis excludes essential workers employed in health care settings, a group discussed in the KFF/Washington Post Frontline Health Care Worker Survey. Essential workers in non-health care settings report working in a variety of different types of jobs including office jobs (16%), factories and warehouses (15%), delivery or transportation jobs (10%), retail (10%), schools and childcare centers (7%), construction (7%), and food service (6%). The remaining essential workers are employed in other settings such as house cleaners, landscapers, plumbers, and home maintenance workers (4%), or working at farm, garden, or agricultural sites (2%).

Compared to employed adults working from their homes, those identifying as essential workers are disproportionately male (63% vs. 52%), of Hispanic ethnicity (22% vs. 13%), and have less than a college degree (74% vs. 41%). Four in ten (39%) in this group also identify as either Republican or Republican-leaning independents compared to about a quarter (26%) of other employed adults.

About one-third (34%) of essential workers say they know someone who has died from the coronavirus and 64% know someone who tested positive for the disease. Another 13% of essential workers report that they themselves tested positive for the coronavirus (compared to 6% of adults employed in non-essential jobs).

Attitudes Towards COVID-19 Vaccination

As of mid-March, roughly half (48%) of essential workers say they have already received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine or will get a vaccine as soon as they can. This is a lower share than the nearly 7 in 10 workers employed in other professions (69%) and among adults without jobs (67%), despite the fact that most states prioritized these populations early during vaccine distribution.

About one in five essential workers (19%) say they will “wait and see” how the vaccine is working for others before getting vaccinated themselves, the same share as among those who are employed in non-essential jobs. However, essential workers are more likely than those who are doing their jobs from home to say they will get the vaccine “only if required” (11% vs. 3%) or that they will “definitely not” get vaccinated (21% vs. 7%).

Differences between demographic groups among essential workers

As with the public overall, partisanship plays a role in vaccination intentions among essential workers. Four in ten (40%) of Republican and Republican-leaning essential workers say they will “definitely not” get vaccinated, compared to just 5% of Democratic-leaning essential workers who say the same. Three-fourths (74%) of Democratic or Democratic-leaning essential workers say they’ve already been vaccinated or will get the vaccine as soon as possible compared to about three in ten (29%) Republican or Republican-leaning essential workers. By race and ethnicity, opposition to the vaccine is highest among White essential workers, with about a quarter (26%) saying they will definitely not get the vaccine compared to 7% of Black and 11% of Hispanic essential workers.

Similarly, essential workers’ opinions about the coronavirus vaccine show deep divides by education. Essential workers without college degrees are less likely than college graduates to say they have already gotten the vaccine or will get it as soon as they can. Among those with less than a college degree, 42% say they have already gotten the vaccine or will do so as soon as possible compared to two-thirds (66%) of those with a college education. Across income levels, roughly half (Household income under $40K: 47%, $40K-$89.9K: 48%, $90K+: 47%) of essential workers had already received a vaccine or plan to get one as soon as they can.

Although there are divides among essential workers in their attitudes towards the vaccine by party, race, and education, the demographics of essential workers cannot fully account for the lower enthusiasm for the vaccine among essential workers. A statistical analysis using the technique of multiple regression shows that even after controlling for demographic factors such as party, age, gender, education, race, income, ideology, and experience with contracting the coronavirus, essential workers remain more likely than non-essential workers to say they will “definitely not” get the vaccine. However, this analysis shows among these factors, the strongest predictors of vaccine intentions are party identification and political ideology.

VACCINE CONCERNS, ELIGIBILITY AND INFORMATION ABOUT WHERE TO BE VACCINATED

Among those who are not yet vaccinated and do not plan to get the vaccine as soon as they can, two-thirds (66%) are concerned about the possibility of experiencing serious side effects from the vaccine. In addition, essential workers express several work-related concerns about the COVID-19 vaccine. Majorities of these workers are very or somewhat concerned that they will be required to get vaccinated even if they don’t want to (63%), and about half (53%) are concerned they may have to miss work if they experience side effects from the vaccine.

This analysis also finds that substantial shares of essential workers are not sure where they can be vaccinated or aren’t sure whether they are currently eligible to receive the vaccine. Among unvaccinated essential workers, roughly 3 in 10 (31%) say they do not have enough information about where they will be able to get a vaccine and nearly 4 in 10 (39%) are not sure whether they are currently eligible to receive the vaccine in their state.

Among essential workers, education and income sharply divide understanding of where to get a coronavirus vaccine. Over one-third (37%) of unvaccinated essential workers without a college degree and 7% of college educated workers say they do not know where to get a COVID-19 vaccine. Among lower income essential workers (those with household incomes under $40,000), 45% say they do not have enough information about where they will be able to get a vaccine, compared to one quarter among those with incomes $40,000 and over.

As with knowledge of where to get a vaccine, uncertainty about current eligibility shows stark divides by education, ethnicity, and income. Unvaccinated essential workers without a college education express greater uncertainty about whether they are currently eligible to receive a vaccine, with 44% of essential workers without college educations saying they do not know whether they are eligible compared to 16% of college educated essential workers. Hispanic essential workers who are unvaccinated are also more likely to express doubt about whether they are eligible to receive a vaccine: half (53%) of unvaccinated Hispanic workers do not know whether they are eligible compared to three in ten (31%) unvaccinated White essential workers. A higher share of low-income essential workers are not sure whether they are eligible to receive the vaccine than essential workers with higher incomes; a 58% majority of those with household incomes under $40,000 are not sure whether they are eligible, compared to three in ten (30%) essential workers in households earning $40,000 or more. Uncertainty about vaccine eligibility may be mitigated moving forward now that all people ages 16 and older are eligible to receive a vaccine nationwide as of April 19.

Employer policies THAT MIGHT INCREASE VACCINATION UPTAKE

The latest COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor tested several policies that employers could implement to increase vaccination uptake among their workers. The hypothetical policies tested may be helpful to convert some unvaccinated essential workers to getting vaccinated. For example, roughly one-quarter (23%) of essential workers who are not convinced to get vaccinated right away say they would be more likely to get the vaccine if a medical provider came to their work to administer the shot.

Financial incentives also may convince some essential workers to get the vaccine. About one in five (19%) non-health essential workers who are not yet convinced to get the vaccine as soon as possible say they would be more likely to get the vaccine if their employer offered them $50 to get it, a share that increased slightly to 22% if the incentive was raised to $200.

EMPLOYER MANDATED VACCINATION

A 57% majority of non-health care essential workers say employers should not be allowed to require certain employees to get vaccinated for COVID-19. Opposition among essential workers is higher than among non-essential workers (42%) and those who are not currently employed (36%). Currently, employers can mandate vaccinations for their employees except under specific circumstances that conflict with federal law. However, a number of states have pending legislation that address vaccine mandates which may limit employer mandated vaccination on a state-by-state basis.

Views on employer mandates are divided along partisan lines among essential workers as they are among the general public. Nearly 8 in 10 (79%) Republican and Republican leaning essential workers oppose employer required vaccinations while about two-thirds (65%) of Democratic leaning workers support such mandates.

Methodology

This KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor was designed and analyzed by public opinion researchers at the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF). The survey was conducted March 15-22, 2021, among a nationally representative random digit dial telephone sample of 1,862 adults ages 18 and older (including interviews from 476 Hispanic adults and 490 non-Hispanic Black adults), living in the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii (note: persons without a telephone could not be included in the random selection process). Phone numbers used for this study were randomly generated from cell phone and landline sampling frames, with an overlapping frame design, and disproportionate stratification aimed at reaching Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black respondents. Stratification was based on incidence of the race/ethnicity subgroups within each frame. Specifically, the cell phone frame was stratified as: (1) High Hispanic: Cell phone numbers associated with rate centers from counties where at least 35% of the population is Hispanic; (2) High Black: Cell phone numbers associated with remaining rate centers from counties where at least 35% of the population is non-Hispanic Black; (3) Else: numbers from all remaining rate centers. The landline frame was stratified as: (1) High Black: landline exchanges associated with Census block groups where at least 35% of the population is Black; (2) Else: all remaining landline exchanges. The sample also included 190 respondents reached by calling back respondents that had previously completed an interview on the KFF Health Tracking Poll at least nine months ago. Another 402 interviews were completed with respondents who had previously completed an interview on the SSRS Omnibus poll (and other RDD polls) and identified as Hispanic (n = 178; including 63 in Spanish) or non-Hispanic Black (n=224). Computer-assisted telephone interviews conducted by landline (356) and cell phone (1,506, including 1,093 who had no landline telephone) were carried out in English and Spanish by SSRS of Glen Mills, PA. To efficiently obtain a sample of lower-income and non-White respondents, the sample also included an oversample of prepaid (pay-as-you-go) telephone numbers (25% of the cell phone sample consisted of prepaid numbers) Both the random digit dial landline and cell phone samples were provided by Marketing Systems Group (MSG). For the landline sample, respondents were selected by asking for the youngest adult male or female currently at home based on a random rotation. If no one of that gender was available, interviewers asked to speak with the youngest adult of the opposite gender. For the cell phone sample, interviews were conducted with the adult who answered the phone. KFF paid for all costs associated with the survey.

The combined landline and cell phone sample was weighted to balance the sample demographics to match estimates for the national population using data from the Census Bureau’s 2019 U.S. American Community Survey (ACS), on sex, age, education, race, Hispanic origin, and region, within race-groups, along with data from the 2010 Census on population density. The sample was also weighted to match current patterns of telephone use using data from the January- June 2020 National Health Interview Survey and to adjust for non-response bias, predominantly in the callback sample frames, on health insurance coverage, registered voter status, age, and reported vaccination rates (based on the non-callback RDD sample). The weight takes into account the fact that respondents with both a landline and cell phone have a higher probability of selection in the combined sample and also adjusts for the household size for the landline sample, and design modifications, namely, the oversampling of prepaid cell phones and likelihood of non-response for the re-contacted sample. All statistical tests of significance account for the effect of weighting.

The margin of sampling error including the design effect for the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Numbers of respondents and margins of sampling error for key subgroups are shown in the table below. For results based on other subgroups, the margin of sampling error may be higher. Sample sizes and margins of sampling error for other subgroups are available by request. Note that sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error in this or any other public opinion poll. Kaiser Family Foundation public opinion and survey research is a charter member of the Transparency Initiative of the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

This work was supported in part by grants from the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative DAF (an advised fund of Silicon Valley Community Foundation), the Ford Foundation, and the Molina Family Foundation. We value our funders. KFF maintains full editorial control over all of its policy analysis, polling, and journalism activities.

GroupN (unweighted)M.O.S.E.
Total1,862± 3 percentage points
Essential workers, non-health care477± 6 percentage points
News Release

Essential Workers Employed Outside Health Care are Less Enthusiastic about Getting a COVID-19 Vaccine than Other Adults

Employers Could Encourage Some to Get Vaccinated Through Incentives, Though Most of These Workers Oppose a Mandate

Published: Apr 23, 2021

There has been little research on how essential workers not employed in the health care sector have been impacted by the pandemic and their views on and experiences with COVID-19 vaccines. The latest KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor report finds that this group of workers – roughly 3 in 10 of all adults who have been required to work outside their homes during the pandemic – are less enthusiastic about getting vaccinated than other adults.

As of mid-March, nearly half (48%) of non-health care essential workers said they had received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine or will get a vaccine as soon as they can – fewer than the share among those who work from home (69%) and among adults who aren’t working (67%). Non-health care essential workers are also more likely than those who work from home to say they will get the vaccine “only if required” (11% vs. 3%) or that they will “definitely not” get vaccinated (21% vs. 7%).

These differences in enthusiasm in part reflect the underlying demographics of the two groups.

Compared to employed adults working from their homes, those identifying as essential workers are less likely to have a college degree (26% vs. 59%) and are more likely to identify as Republican or Republican-leaning independents (39% vs. 26%). People without a college degree and those who are or lean Republican in general are more likely to be resistant to getting a vaccine than their counterparts, though even after accounting for these and other demographic factors, essential workers are more likely than other adults to say they won’t get vaccinated.

Among essential workers who are not already vaccinated or planning to do so as soon as possible, two thirds (66%) say they worry about experiencing serious side effects, and about half (53%) are concerned they may have to miss work if they experience side effects from the vaccine.

The analysis finds employers could encourage some of these workers to get a vaccine through incentives. About 1 in 5 say they would be more likely to get vaccinated if their employer arranged for a health care provider to administer the vaccine at work (23%), or if their employer offered to pay them an extra $50 (19%) or $200 (22%) to get vaccinated.

Overall, most non-health care essential workers (57%) say that employers should not be allowed to require their workers to get vaccinated, compared to 42% of workers employed in other types of non-healthcare jobs.

The issue divides along partisan lines. Among non-health essential workers, those who identify as Republican or lean that way overwhelmingly say employers should not be allowed to mandate their workers get vaccinated (79%), while two thirds (65%) of Democrats and Democratic leaners say they should be able to do so.

Designed and analyzed by public opinion researchers at KFF, the KFF Vaccine Monitor survey was conducted from March 15-22 among a nationally representative random digit dial telephone sample of 1,862 adults, including oversamples of adults who are Black (490) or Hispanic (476). Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by landline (356) and cell phone (1,506). The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 6 percentage points for results based on the sample of 477 essential workers. For results based on subgroups, the margin of sampling error may be higher.

The KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor is an ongoing research project tracking the public’s attitudes and experiences with COVID-19 vaccinations. Using a combination of surveys and qualitative research, this project tracks the dynamic nature of public opinion as vaccine development and distribution unfold, including vaccine confidence and acceptance, information needs, trusted messengers and messages, as well as the public’s experiences with vaccination.

News Release

COVID-19 Deaths and Cases in Long-Term Care Facilities Have Fallen to All-Time Lows in the Four Months Since Vaccinations Began

Published: Apr 22, 2021

COVID-19 deaths and cases among residents and staff of long-term care facilities have fallen dramatically since vaccinations began in December, with deaths declining by nearly 89 percent and cases declining by nearly 92 percent as of April 2021, according to a new KFF analysis.

COVID-19 deaths in long-term care settings fell from 1.7 deaths per 100,000 state residents in December to just 0.2 deaths per 100,000 state residents in April, an all-time low, the analysis finds.

By mid-April, about a third (34%) of all COVID-19 deaths were in long-term care facilities, down from a peak of nearly half (49%) in June 2020 and 42 percent around the time that long-term care residents and staff began receiving vaccines in late December.

Similarly, average new weekly cases in long-term care facilities were just 1.6 per 100,000 state residents in April, also an all-time low, compared to a peak of 20.3 in December 2020 across the 39 states (38 states plus DC) for which trend data is available.

Not all the news is good. Eight states experienced a rise in COVID-19 cases in long-term care facilities between March and April 2021. The increases ranged from a 6 percent uptick in New Hampshire to a more than 150 percent jump in Connecticut and Michigan. Such increases may be reflective of increased COVID-19 cases and community spread in such states overall, often attributed to rising infections among younger people due to “pandemic fatigue.”

No states reported increases in both cases and deaths in long-term care settings between March and April, so it remains to be seen whether recent increases in cases in a few states will lead to increases in deaths.

For more data and analyses about COVID-19 and long-term care settings, visit kff.org.