Coverage

This analysis details the number of people who would become uninsured from policy changes in the ACA Marketplaces and Medicaid. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that, taken together, these changes will result in 16 million more uninsured people in the year 2034 than would otherwise be the case.

On May 22, the House passed a reconciliation bill, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which would partially pay to extend expiring tax cuts by cutting Medicaid. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $793 billion over ten years and 10.3 million fewer people would be enrolled in Medicaid in 2034, including 1.3 million people with Medicare, otherwise known as “dual-eligible individuals”.

Through regulations and the House budget reconciliation bill, significant changes are being considered by Congress and the Trump Administration for how the Affordable Care Act’s health insurance Marketplaces would work. To examine how these changes could reshape the ACA’s Marketplaces, KFF held a virtual briefing on June 11 featuring leaders from two state-based Marketplaces to get perspectives from the field.

In his latest column, President and CEO Drew Altman discusses how, with nearly half, or about 10 million MAGA supporters and Republicans receiving coverage through the ACA Marketplaces, the policy changes and cuts being considered by Republicans to the Marketplaces will directly affect their own voters. Altman writes: “Republicans are no longer interested in repealing the ACA but seem comfortable shrinking it significantly if they can, so long as they don’t touch protections for pre-existing conditions, which is now a political third rail.”

House Republicans have passed a reconciliation package (the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”) that would make significant changes to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplaces and increase the number of people without health insurance by an estimated 10.9 million. This analysis estimates state-level increases in the number of uninsured people due to this legislation, along with other changes to the Marketplace, including the expiration of the enhanced premium tax credits.

As Congress weighs spending cuts and other changes to Medicaid, more than half (54%) of the public say they are worried significant reductions in federal Medicaid spending would negatively affect their family’s ability to obtain and afford health care, a new KFF Health Tracking Poll finds. This includes about three…

This analysis examines the potential impacts of a provision in the House reconciliation bill that proposes reducing the federal matching rate for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansion population from 90% to 80% for states that either provide health coverage or financial assistance to purchase health coverage to individuals who are not “a qualified alien.”

What percentage of people are covered by Medicaid in your state? Our State Medicaid fact sheets provide a snapshot with key data for Medicaid in every state related to current coverage, access, and financing, as well as a politics section for each state.

This page displays an interactive map of the current status of state decisions on the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion. Additional Medicaid expansion resources are listed (with links) below the map.