Health Care in the Michigan Democratic Primary: KFF Analysis of AP VoteCast Polling

Published: Mar 11, 2020

This slideshow examines the role of health care as an issue in the 2020 Michigan Democratic primary and is based on KFF analysis of AP VoteCast, a survey of Michigan primary voters conducted for the Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago.

The survey was conducted for seven days, concluding as polls closed, and is based on 2,460 interviews conducted in English and Spanish with registered voters drawn from a random sample of the state voter file and from self-identified registered voters selected from non-probability online panels. The margin of sampling error for results based on the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Find more details about AP VoteCast’s methodology here.

Updated: March 11, 2020 at 1:00pm EST

Paid Sick Leave is Much Less Common for Lower-Wage Workers in Private Industry

Authors: Gary Claxton and Larry Levitt
Published: Mar 10, 2020

Concerns over the potential spread of the coronavirus have refocused attention on the leave policies of employers.  People are being encouraged to remain in their homes if they show any symptoms of respiratory illness, but workers without access to paid sick leave may feel that they cannot afford to miss work, potentially exposing their co-workers and others to the coronavirus or other respiratory illness.

That lower-wage workers are much more likely to lack access to paid sick leave makes their economic decisions more acute.  Among the 25% of private industry occupations with the lowest wages ($13.25 per hour or less), 47% have access to paid sick leave; for the 10% of private industry occupations with the lowest wages ($10.48 per hour or less), the percentage with access to paid sick leave falls to 30%. Workers in higher-wage occupations are much more likely to have access to this benefit (Figure 1). For example, 77% of private industry workers with occupations in the second wage quartile ($13.25 to $19.00 per hour) have access to paid sick leave, with the percentage rising to 90% of private industry workers with occupations in the top wage quartile.

Figure 1: Share of Private Industry Workers with Paid Sick Leave, by Wage Level, 2019

A corollary point is that many lower-wage jobs require considerable interaction with members of the general public – just the type of situation where we would want people to elect to remain at home if symptoms arise. Unfortunately, only 48% of private industry workers in leisure and hospitality sector have access to paid sick leave, a much lower percentage than other major occupation categories.  These people handle food, money and other items that could be part of the transmission of the coronavirus or other illnesses.

[Visit our special coronavirus topic page for all our resources.]

The potential spread of the coronavirus highlights the issues associated with the lack of paid sick leave for many private industry workers, particularly those with low wages. The lack of access not only exposes these workers to economic hardship if they are forced to miss work, but concerns over lost income may discourage them from seeking health care or missing work when symptoms appear, exposing their co-workers and members of the public to greater risk of transmission.

Methods

The data from this brief is from Employee Benefits in the United States, March, 2019.  The data on paid sick leave is available here: https://www.bls.gov/ncs/ebs/benefits/2019/ownership/private/table31a.pdf.  We focused in data for workers in private industry; the percentages of lower-wage State and Local Government workers with access to paid sick leave are higher.

The wage percentiles are calculated based on the average hourly wages for occupation into which workers are classified. See https://www.bls.gov/ncs/ebs/benefits/2019/tech_note.htm for a complete description of the methods used.  The percentiles were based on the following average wage levels.

Average Hourly Wage Percentiles
10th25th50th75th90th
Private industry workers$10.48$13.25$19.00$30.61$48.28
News Release

New Online Resource Tracks Donor Funding for Coronavirus Response

Published: Mar 10, 2020

A new KFF resource compiles publicly available information on donor funding for the global novel coronavirus response. Donors have begun providing support to China and other low- and middle-income countries, but currently there is no centralized repository to track this information.Through March 9, donors have pledged over $8.3 billion in financial support for the COVID-19 response. This includes donor assistance provided directly to countries as well as their contributions to the World Health Organization. The vast majority of the funding was provided by donor governments (including the U.S.), the World Bank, and other multilateral organizations. It does not include funding from governments for their own domestic response efforts or commitments focused on economic stimulus or recovery efforts related to the outbreak.The tracker will be updated as more information becomes available.

3 Key Questions About the Arkansas Medicaid Work and Reporting Requirements Case

Author: MaryBeth Musumeci
Published: Mar 6, 2020

On February 14, 2020, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit issued a unanimous decision setting aside the Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary’s approval of a Section 1115 Medicaid waiver amendment that included work and reporting requirements and restriction of retroactive coverage in Arkansas. The court found that Secretary’s approval was unlawful because he failed to consider the impact on coverage. The case was decided by a 3-judge panel, and the opinion was written by Judge David Sentelle, appointed by President Reagan. The appeals court affirmed the district court’s earlier decision that reached the same conclusion. In addition to Arkansas, the district court has set aside similar waiver approvals in Kentucky and New Hampshire.

The appeals court’s decision likely ultimately affects not only the Arkansas Medicaid program and its enrollees but also is being watched by other states with pending litigation, other states with waiver approvals and those seeking approvals for work requirements, and other states considering adopting similar policies. While litigation is ongoing, in January 2020, the Trump Administration released guidance inviting states to apply for new Section 1115 demonstrations that would allow states to impose work requirements and other restrictions on eligibility and benefits in exchange for a cap on federal financing and has again proposed a legislative change to condition Medicaid on work and reporting requirements in all states in its budget for fiscal year 2021. This issue brief answers three key questions about the implications of the appeals court’s decision.

1. What is the rationale behind the appeal court’s decision setting aside Arkansas’ waiver amendment?

The appeals court decided that the HHS Secretary’s approval of Arkansas’s waiver amendment was outside the scope of his Section 1115 demonstration authority. The court set the waiver amendment approval aside because the Secretary failed to adequately analyze its impact on Medicaid’s primary objective: providing health insurance coverage to low income people, consistent with the ruling and rationale of the district court. While Congress has granted the Secretary “considerable discretion” to approve waivers, the Secretary must exercise that discretion within the guardrails established by Congress. Specifically, the Secretary’s waiver authority is limited to approving experimental projects that will advance Medicaid program objectives. The courts’ role is to review the Secretary’s decisions and determine whether those guardrails are being observed.

The court found that the Secretary’s waiver amendment approval in Arkansas is arbitrary and capricious because he failed to consider the impact on coverage. The appeals court underscored that the “text of the [Medicaid] statute includes one primary purpose, which is providing health care coverage without any restriction geared to healthy outcomes, financial independence or transition to commercial coverage.” The Administrative Procedures Act – which governs agency decision-making — requires a reasoned basis for the Secretary’s decision, grounded in evidence in the administrative record. The administrative record includes the evidence before the Secretary when deciding whether to approve the waiver, such as the state’s waiver application and public comments. Estimates and concerns about coverage loss were raised in the public comments on Arkansas’ waiver amendment, and the court determined that the Secretary dismissed these concerns “in a handful of conclusory sentences.” The court found that the failure to consider an important aspect of the problem is not “reasoned decision-making.”

The court found that the Secretary’s waiver amendment approval in Arkansas also is flawed because he prioritized other objectives that are not in the statute to the exclusion of the objective identified by Congress. Congress did not include improving health outcomes or promoting financial independence as among Medicaid’s objectives, and the Secretary cannot approve a demonstration to further objectives that Congress has not identified, according to the court. The appeals court “agree[s] with the district court that the alternative objectives of better health outcomes and beneficiary independence are not consistent with Medicaid.” While HHS argued that the waiver restrictions were appropriate because ACA expansion adults in its view are a different population compared to other Medicaid populations, the appeals court concluded that nothing in the statute indicates that Congress intended to treat expansion adults differently from any other Medicaid enrollees. The appeals court also rejected HHS’s argument that the waiver restrictions are appropriate because they promote financial independence, observing that the statute’s reference to independence refers to assisting people with achieving functional independence by provided rehabilitative and other health care services. In contrast to the TANF and SNAP statutes, Congress has not conditioned Medicaid coverage on fulfilling work requirements.

2. What happens next in Arkansas?

The appeals court’s decision means that work and reporting requirements cannot be re-instated in Arkansas at this time. Arkansas’s waiver implementation began in summer 2018, with over 18,000 people losing coverage by the end of that year. The district court’s decision stopped implementation, before the first coverage losses scheduled for 2019 took effect on April 1st. In addition to the work and reporting requirements, Arkansas also cannot re-instate the restriction of retroactive coverage, which also was included in the vacated waiver amendment.

Looking ahead, HHS and/or Arkansas can ask the entire DC Circuit Court of Appeals to reconsider the case in a rehearing “en banc.” They also can ask the U.S. Supreme Court to grant cert and review the case. This means that the recent appeals court decision might not be the last word on the scope of the Secretary’s waiver authority, although both of these further appeals are at each’s court’s discretion.

3. What does the decision mean for HHS and other states that want to condition Medicaid coverage on work and reporting requirements?

While the appeals court’s decision in Arkansas does not directly invalidate Medicaid work requirement approvals in other states, it does signal that lawsuits challenging similar approvals are likely to be successful. While a similar appeal in Kentucky has been dismissed as moot after the new governor terminated the waiver, the New Hampshire case is currently pending in the appeals court, and there are cases challenging waiver approvals in Indiana and Michigan in the district court. In addition to the waivers currently being challenged in court, HHS has approved similar work requirement waivers in five other states, while 10 other states’ requests are pending as of February 14, 2020. The New Hampshire appeal was put on hold while the Arkansas appeal was pending. The appeals court has ordered the parties in the New Hampshire case to file motions by March 16, 2020, setting out how they think the case should proceed given the Arkansas decision.

Applying the appeals court’s decision in Arkansas, the district court set aside the work requirement waiver approval in Michigan; the Indiana case is still pending in the district court. The district court has to follow the legal standards set out in the appeals court’s decision. Prior to the appeals court’s decision in Arkansas, HHS conceded that the Indiana and Michigan work requirements would be unlawful “absent further judicial review” if the appeals court affirmed the district court’s decision setting aside the Arkansas approval. However, HHS argues that other waiver provisions challenged in Indiana and Michigan such as premiums and healthy behavior requirements were lawfully approved and should survive even if the work requirements are vacated; the court has not yet ruled on these other provisions. The plaintiffs argue that the Secretary’s entire approval is flawed, and none of the challenged provisions can survive.

Implementation of work requirements has been suspended in New Hampshire, Indiana, and Arizona, given the pending litigation, leaving Utah as the only state currently implementing a work requirement. Other states pursuing similar requirements also may reconsider, given the recent appeals court decision about Arkansas. However, there is nothing to stop states from adopting programs to support Medicaid enrollees’ ability to work without the threat of coverage lossMontana has a voluntary work supports program, Maine rejected a work requirement waiver in favor of a similar program, and Kansas has pending Medicaid expansion legislation that includes a voluntary work referral.

The appeals court’s statements about Medicaid’s primary purpose as articulated by Congress and the bounds of the Secretary’s discretion under Section 1115 are likely to inform potential future lawsuits challenging other demonstration approvals. The recent CMS guidance inviting states to apply for new demonstrations with capped federal funding would allow states to impose work requirements and other restrictions on eligibility and benefits similar to those set aside in Arkansas, Kentucky, and New Hampshire to date, making continuing developments in the current lawsuits important to watch.

News Release

New Interactive Map Offers State Data on What Democratic Primary Voters Say About Health Care

Published: Mar 4, 2020

Democratic voters across the primary states that have already cast their ballots for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination consistently name health care as the top issue or among the top issues in this year’s election.

A new interactive map highlights what Democratic primary voters are saying about health care as they vote.

Based on KFF’s analysis of the state-level AP VoteCast data collected in most states as they hold their primary elections, health care ranked as either the top issue or tied as the top issue in each contest analyzed, with between 31% to 39% of voters ranking it as the most important issue in each state. However, a larger share of Democratic voters in each primary contest say it is very important to choose a candidate who can beat President Trump than to choose a candidate who has the best policy ideas.

Across states, majorities of Democratic voters favor a single-payer health plan, similar to the one proposed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, and a proposal similar to the one put forward by former Vice President Biden, in which all Americans would have the option of buying a government health insurance plan. In each state, the public option plan garnered more support from Democratic voters than the single-payer plan.

The map includes links to state-specific charts highlighting other health care findings from the AP VoteCast data, including key demographic breakouts. Currently, state data is available from Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, as well as eight of the 14 states that voted Tuesday: Alabama, California, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia. KFF will add analysis for additional states after they vote.

The interactive map is part of KFF’s ongoing efforts to provide useful information related to the health policy issues relevant for the 2020 primary and general election campaigns, including policy analysis, polling, and journalism.

Health Care in the North Carolina Democratic Primary: KFF Analysis of AP VoteCast Polling

Published: Mar 4, 2020

This slideshow examines the role of health care as an issue in the 2020 North Carolina Democratic primary and is based on KFF analysis of AP VoteCast, a survey of North Carolina primary voters conducted for the Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago.

The survey was conducted for seven days, concluding as polls closed, and is based on 2,706 interviews conducted in English and Spanish with registered voters drawn from a random sample of the state voter file and from self-identified registered voters selected from non-probability online panels. The margin of sampling error for results based on the full sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Find more details about AP VoteCast’s methodology here.

Updated: March 4, 2020 at 2:30pm EST

Health Care in the California Democratic Primary: KFF Analysis of AP VoteCast Polling

Published: Mar 4, 2020

This slideshow examines the role of health care as an issue in the 2020 California Democratic primary and is based on KFF analysis of AP VoteCast, a survey of California primary voters conducted for the Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago.

The survey was conducted for seven days, concluding as polls closed, and is based on 4,023 interviews conducted in English and Spanish with registered voters drawn from a random sample of the state voter file and from self-identified registered voters selected from non-probability online panels. The margin of sampling error for results based on the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Find more details about AP VoteCast’s methodology here.

Updated: March 4, 2020 at 2:30pm EST

News Release

Abortion is Back at the Supreme Court: New Analysis of June Medical Services LLC v. Russo

Published: Mar 2, 2020

A new KFF brief explains June Medical Services LLC v. Russo, a challenge to a Louisiana abortion regulation that will be heard at the Supreme Court on March 4, 2020. The brief discusses the issues raised by this case and reviews the potential implications of various rulings.

The June Medical Services LLC v. Russo case is a challenge to a Louisiana law, the Louisiana Unsafe Abortion Protection Act (“Act 620”), which requires physicians who perform abortions in the state to have “active admitting privileges” at a hospital within 30 miles of the facility where the doctor provides abortions. Doctors who perform an abortion without having admitting privileges may be imprisoned or fined and the clinics that employ them can have their licenses revoked and may also be fined or face civil liability.

The law in dispute is nearly identical to the Texas admitting privileges law struck down in Whole Woman’s Health v. Hellerstedt in June 2016, the last time the Court ruled on abortion. In that case, the Court ruled that the Texas admitting privileges law was unconstitutional as the burden the law placed on women’s access to abortion outweighed the benefit.

The Supreme Court will likely issue its decision in this case at the end of its term, in late June 2020. With the election only months away, and party conventions in July, this case once again puts abortion right in the middle of the political debate. While the Court’s decision is unlikely to overturn Roe v. Wade, the decision could affect the type and scope of abortion restrictions that states can enact and the availability of abortion services in Louisiana and other states with similar laws.

Health Care in the South Carolina Democratic Primary: KFF Analysis of AP VoteCast Polling

Published: Mar 1, 2020

This slideshow examines the role of health care as an issue in the 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary and is based on KFF analysis of AP VoteCast, a survey of South Carolina primary voters conducted for the Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago.

The survey was conducted for seven days, concluding as polls closed, and is based on interviews conducted in English and Spanish with a random sample of 1,499 registered voters drawn from the state voter file. The margin of sampling error for results based on the full sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Find more details about AP VoteCast’s methodology here.

Updated: March 1, 2020 at 1:00pm EST