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This issue brief analyzes provides a profile of enrollment and spending on dual-eligible individuals, drawing on new analysis of data on chronic conditions to show how higher rates of chronic conditions contribute to higher average spending among this population.
CBO’s latest projections of Medicaid spending and enrollment from February 2026 show how enrollment and spending are expected to change over the next decade, accounting for the historic policy changes and their expected reductions in future federal Medicaid spending, as well as other economic and technical changes. This policy watch compares CBO’s February 2026 projections of Medicaid spending and enrollment to earlier CBO projections.
Enrollment dropped 13% following the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits at the beginning of this year. Enrollment fell from a high of 22.1 million people in 2025 to 19.2 million people in February 2026. While the Trump administration attributes this drop in enrollment to their attempts to address fraud, this coverage loss happened at the same time millions of people faced steep increases in their premium payments – often in the double or even…
The Medicare Part D program provides an outpatient prescription drug benefit to 56 million older adults and people with long-term disabilities in Medicare who enroll in private plans. This brief analyzes Medicare Part D enrollment, premiums, and cost sharing in 2026 and trends over time, based on data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS).
More than half (55%) of eligible Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in Medicare Advantage in 2026. To better understand trends in the growth of the Medicare Advantage program, this brief provides current information about enrollment, including by plan type and firm
The average Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace deductible experienced the steepest increase in history—growing by 37% or over $1,000, from $2,759 in 2025 to $3,786 in 2026 as enhanced premium tax credits expired, according to a new KFF analysis. After the enhanced tax credits ended, many Marketplace shoppers shifted toward lower-premium, higher-deductible plans.
This analysis examines early indicators of how the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits has affected effectuated enrollment levels (i.e., enrollment among people who have paid their premiums), plan selections, and out-of-pocket costs in 2026, drawing on plan selection and effectuated enrollment data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and state-based Marketplace (SBM) Open Enrollment reports, as well as KFF survey data and individual market enrollment estimates from Wakely Consulting Group.
On May 22, the House passed a reconciliation bill, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which would partially pay to extend expiring tax cuts by cutting Medicaid. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $793 billion over ten years and 10.3 million fewer people would be enrolled in Medicaid in 2034, including 1.3 million people with Medicare, otherwise known as “dual-eligible individuals”.
KFF hosted a virtual briefing focused on states’ efforts to implement these new Medicaid work and community engagement requirements, which have created new administrative demands on states at a time of federal funding cuts, slowing revenue growth, and increasing spending demands.
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