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2025 Reconciliation Law

How Will the 2025 Reconciliation Law Affect the Uninsured Rate in Each State?

This analysis apportions the increase in the number of uninsured across the 50 states and DC. CBO estimates that the reconciliation law will increase the number of uninsured by 10 million in 2034. That number would rise to over 14 million if enhanced premium tax credits for ACA Marketplace enrollees expire later this year.

ANALYSIS

The Impact of H.R. 1 on Two Medicaid Eligibility Rules

ANALYSIS

Allocating Federal Medicaid Spending Reductions Across States

Policy Tracker

Medicaid Provisions in the 2025 Budget Reconciliation Law

ANALYSIS

How Might Federal Medicaid Cuts Affect Rural Areas?

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

The Essentials

  • 5 Facts: Immigrants and Medicaid

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

    This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • Medicaid Financing: The Basics

    Medicaid is a major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term services and supports for low-income residents. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid’s Share of National Health Spending

    This brief explores how Medicaid spending contributes to national health spending and how different service areas contribute to Medicaid costs.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Nursing Facilities

    The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

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  • No Easy Choices: 5 Options to Respond to Per Capita Caps

    Issue Brief

    Under a per capita cap, per enrollee spending would be capped, but the total amount of federal dollars to states could vary with enrollment changes and states would not be able to impose enrollment caps. Faced with restrictions in federal financing, states would have to make hard choices. This brief outlines the key measures states could use to manage their budgets and the associated challenges under a per capita cap: raise taxes or make other cuts, reduce benefits, limit coverage of high cost enrollees, reduce rates or implement delivery system reforms, and promote personal responsibility. Each option has challenges that are identified in the brief.

  • Strategies to Reduce Medicaid Spending: Findings from a Literature Review

    Issue Brief

    This issue brief considers the feasibility of realizing substantial Medicaid cost savings through strategies aimed at improving delivery system and administrative efficiency. We review the literature about the potential for Medicaid cost savings from four strategies related to acute care services: (1) premiums, cost-sharing, and enrollee wellness incentives, (2) complex care management, (3) patient-centered medical homes, and (4) alternative payment models, and another four strategies related to long-term services and supports: (5) tightening financial eligibility rules for long-term care services, (6) promoting private long-term care insurance, (7) expanding home and community-based services (HCBS), and (8) increasing use of managed long-term services and supports.

  • Current Flexibility in Medicaid: An Overview of Federal Standards and State Options

    Issue Brief

    The Trump Administration and new Congress have indicated that they will seek to cap Medicaid financing through a block grant or per capita cap, reduce federal funding for the program, and offer states increased flexibility to manage their programs within this more limited financing structure. The size of the federal reductions as well as which federal program standards would remain in place and what increased flexibility might be provided to states under such proposals would have significant implications. To help inform discussion around increased flexibility, this brief provides an overview of current federal standards and state options in Medicaid and how states have responded to these options in four key areas: eligibility, benefits, premiums and cost sharing, and provider payments and delivery systems.

  • What Might a Trump Administration Mean for Medicaid?

    News Release

    This new fact sheet examines key questions around the potential changes President-elect Donald Trump and the next Congress may seek to make in Medicaid, a program that covers 73 million people nationally.

  • Medicaid Enrollment & Spending Growth: FY 2024 & 2025

    Issue Brief

    This brief analyzes Medicaid enrollment and spending trends for FY 2024 and FY 2025, based on data provided by state Medicaid directors as part of the 24th annual survey of Medicaid directors.

  • What is Medicaid Estate Recovery?

    Issue Brief

    Under estate recovery, state Medicaid programs are required to recover the costs of long-term care and related hospital and prescription drug services for enrollees ages 55 and older. KFF examines the wide variation in estate recovery practices across states as well as the criticisms of this policy, which have led to federal proposals to modify or reduce it.