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Medicare Advantage in 2025: Enrollment Update and Key Trends

In 2025, more than half (54%) of eligible Medicare beneficiaries - 34.1 million out of about 62.8 million with both Medicare Parts A and B - are enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the share will rise to 64% by 2034.

One in five (21%) Medicare Advantage enrollees is in a special needs plan (SNP), reflecting a steady increase in recent years. Overall, Medicare Advantage enrollment is highly concentrated among plans owned by a few firms.

Also: Medicare Advantage in 2025: Premiums, Out-of-Pocket Limits, Supplemental Benefits, and Prior Authorization

Medicare Advantage Enrollees Account for 25% of Inpatient Hospital Days

Most Medicare Advantage Markets are Dominated by One or Two Insurers

Medicare Advantage Quality Bonus Payments Will Total at Least $12.7 Billion in 2025

Medicare Advantage Insurers Made Nearly 50 Million Prior Authorization Determinations in 2023

New & Noteworthy
Medicare PArt D

The Uncertain Future of Medicare's Stand-Alone PDP Market and Why It Matters

This brief discusses the uncertain future of Medicare’s Part D stand-alone prescription drug plan (PDP) market, in light of declining PDP availability, rising premiums, and the unknown fate of a temporary demonstration program designed to stabilize the market more broadly. The uncertain future of the market is especially relevant for rural areas, where nearly 6 in 10 beneficiaries are enrolled in traditional Medicare and PDPs, and where there are fewer Medicare Advantage options.

A Current Snapshot of the Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Benefit

Stand-Alone Drug Plans Cover a Larger Share of Part D Enrollees Living in the Most Rural Areas Than Medicare Advantage Plans

Key Facts About Medicare Part D Enrollment, Premiums, and Cost Sharing in 2025

Changes to Medicare Part D in 2024 and 2025 Under the Inflation Reduction Act and How Enrollees Will Benefit

Prescription Drugs

The Effect of Delaying the Selection of Small Molecule Drugs for Medicare Drug Price Negotiation

Part of a recent executive order from President Trump directs the Secretary of HHS to work with Congress to implement a change in the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program to delay negotiation of so-called “small molecule” drugs beyond 7 years after FDA approval under current law. If that timeframe had already been in place, more than half of the Part D drugs that were selected for price negotiation in the first or second rounds – 13 out of 25 – would not have been eligible at the time drugs were selected.

FAQs About the IRA's Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program

Allowing Medicare to Negotiate Drug Prices Is Broadly Popular

The Facts About the $35 Insulin Copay Cap in Medicare

Enrollees in Most Rural Areas Rely More on Stand-alone Part D Plans

Data Visualization

The Facts About Medicare Spending

This interactive provides the facts on Medicare spending. Medicare, which serves 67 million people and accounts for 12 percent of the federal budget and 21 percent of national health spending, is often the focus of discussions about health expenditures, health care affordability and the sustainability of federal health programs.

Explore data on enrollment growth, Medicare spending trends overall and per person, growth in Medicare spending relative to private insurance, spending on benefits and Medicare Advantage, Part A trust fund solvency challenges, and growth in out-of-pocket spending by beneficiaries.

Related: FAQs on Medicare Financing and Trust Fund Solvency

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  • Modifying Traditional Medicare’s Benefit Design Could Reduce Federal Spending But With Cost Tradeoffs Between Beneficiaries and The Federal Government

    News Release

    Revamping traditional Medicare’s benefit design and restricting “first-dollar” supplemental coverage could reduce federal spending, simplify cost sharing, protect against high medical costs, decrease out-of-pocket spending for many beneficiaries, and provide more help to those with low incomes -- but would be unlikely to achieve all of these goals simultaneously.

  • Modifying Medicare’s Benefit Design: What’s the Impact on Beneficiaries and Spending?

    Report

    This report examines an approach to reforming Medicare that has been a focus of Congressional hearings and featured in several broader debt reduction and entitlement reform proposals, and was included in the June 2016 House Republican health plan. The analysis models four different options for modifying Medicare's benefit design, all of which include a single deductible, modified cost-sharing requirements, a new cost-sharing limit, and a prohibition on first-dollar Medigap coverage. The analysis models the expected effects on out-of-pocket spending by beneficiaries in traditional Medicare, and assesses how each option is expected to affect spending by the federal government, state Medicaid programs, employers, and other payers, assuming full implementation in 2018.

  • Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB) Process: A Timeline

    Feature

    IPAB Timeline Download Source Kaiser Family Foundation, “The Independent Payment Advisory Board: A New Approach to Controlling Medicare Spending,” 2011, https://modern.kff.org/health-reform/issue-brief/the-independent-payment-advisory-board-a-new/.

  • Medicare Advantage Hospital Networks: How Much Do They Vary?

    Report

    This report takes an in-depth look at Medicare Advantage plans’ hospital networks. The analysis draws upon data from 409 Medicare Advantage plans serving beneficiaries in 20 diverse counties that together accounted for about one in seven (14%) Medicare Advantage enrollees nationwide in 2015. The report examines the size and composition of plans’ hospital networks, the variation across counties, the inclusion of Academic Medical Centers and NCI-Designated Cancer Centers, and the relationship between network size and other plan features, including premiums, quality star ratings, per capita Medicare spending, parent organization, and plan tax status.

  • Medicare Advantage 2016 Spotlight: Enrollment Market Update

    Issue Brief

    This Data Spotlight reviews national and state-level enrollment trends as of March 2016 and examines variation in enrollment by plan type and firm. It analyzes the most recent data on premiums, out-of-pocket limits, Part D cost-sharing for drugs, and plans’ quality ratings for Medicare Advantage enrollees.

  • What Paul Ryan’s Stance on 2016 Means for Health Care

    From Drew Altman

    In this column for The Wall Street Journal's Think Tank, Drew Altman discusses the implications of Paul Ryan’s decision to rule out being drafted as a Republican presidential candidate for the 2017 health care agenda and how it could focus greater attention on proposals to change Medicare and Medicaid along with the Affordable Care Act.

  • Total Medicare Private Health Plan Enrollment, Current and Projected

    Feature

    Total Medicare Private Health Plan Enrollment, 1992-2026 Download Source Congressional Budget Office's March 2016 Medicare Baseline, CMS Medicare Advantage enrollment files for 2008-2014, and MPR's "Tracking Medicare Health and Prescription Drug Plans Monthly Report" for 1992-2007.