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What to Watch

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Work Requirements

Challenges with Implementing Work Requirements

Many states are anticipating a variety of implementation challenges, including the need for complex system changes, a compressed implementation timeline, and limited staff capacity.

What is the Medicaid Hardship Exception?

The number of Medicaid expansion enrollees who ultimately qualify for the high unemployment hardship exception will depend on how the exception is implemented and how unemployment rates changes.

Tracking Implementation of the 2025 Reconciliation Law: Medicaid Work Requirements

KFF’s interactive tracks key data and policies that will affect how states implement Medicaid work requirements, which are required under the 2025 budget reconciliation law starting in January 2027. The tracker includes state-level data on Medicaid enrollment and renewal outcomes as well as current state enrollment and renewal policies.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

The Essentials

  • 5 Facts: Immigrants and Medicaid

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

    This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • Medicaid Financing: The Basics

    Medicaid is a major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term services and supports for low-income residents. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid’s Share of National Health Spending

    This brief explores how Medicaid spending contributes to national health spending and how different service areas contribute to Medicaid costs.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Nursing Facilities

    The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

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  • Interactive Maps: Estimates of Enrollment in ACA Marketplaces and Medicaid Expansion

    Interactive

    As the 115th U.S. Congress deliberates the future of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, an interactive map from the Kaiser Family Foundation provides estimates of the number of people in each congressional district who enrolled in a 2017 ACA marketplace health plan and the political party of each district’s representative as of October 2017. The analysis also includes maps charting the total number of people enrolled under the ACA Medicaid expansion in 2016 in states that implemented the ACA Medicaid expansion, along with the political parties of their governors and U.S. senators.

  • Community Health Centers: Recent Growth and the Role of the ACA

    Issue Brief

    This brief draws on federal data and our 2016 survey of health centers to provide a 2015 profile of health centers, analyze recent changes in patient coverage and service capacity, and compare health centers in Medicaid expansion and non-expansion states. It also considers the implications of a repeal of the ACA for health centers and the low-income communities they serve.

  • 5 Key Questions: Medicaid Block Grants & Per Capita Caps

    Issue Brief

    Medicaid covers more than 70 million low-income children, pregnant women, adults, seniors, and people with disabilities in the United States. The program represents $1 out of every $6 spent on health care in the US and is the major source of financing for states to provide coverage for the health and long-term needs of low-income residents. President Trump and other GOP leaders have called for fundamental changes in the structure and financing of Medicaid. This brief outlines five key questions to consider as the debate moves forward as well as some potential implications of these changes for states, beneficiaries and providers.

  • Key Issues in Children’s Health Coverage

    Issue Brief

    This brief reviews children’s coverage today and examines what is at stake for children’s coverage in upcoming debates around CHIP funding, repeal and replacement of the ACA, and Medicaid restructuring.

  • Amid Repeal Debate, Public Views Obamacare More Favorably Than Unfavorably

    News Release

    Large Majorities Want to Continue Federal Funding for Medicaid Expansion; Two Thirds Favor Current Federal Role over Block Grants or Per-Capita Caps As President Trump and Congress weigh repealing the Affordable Care Act, the latest Kaiser Health Tracking Poll finds more Americans viewing the law favorably than unfavorably (48% compared to 42%).

  • Data Note: What if Per Enrollee Medicaid Spending Growth Had Been Limited to CPI-M from 2001-2011?

    Issue Brief

    Congress is currently debating the American Health Care Act (AHCA), which would repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and also make substantial changes to the structure and financing of Medicaid. Among other provisions, the AHCA would use a per capita cap policy to cap federal funds to states for Medicaid. This data note examines what the implications of tying per enrollee growth to CPI-M would have been for the 2001-2011 period for federal spending nationally and state-by-state by major enrollment group. This analysis is meant to illustrate how actual spending compares to spending limits that would have been in place if growth rates had been limited to CPI-M, similar to the limits proposed by the AHCA.

  • Medicaid Restructuring Under the American Health Care Act and Implications for Behavioral Health Care in the US

    Issue Brief

    This brief outlines Medicaid’s role for people with behavioral health conditions and the implications of the American Health Care Act for these enrollees. It includes information on the potential impact of ending the enhanced federal financing for newly eligible adults, removing essential health benefits from state plan amendments, and converting federal Medicaid funding into a per capita cap.