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What to Watch

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Work Requirements

Challenges with Implementing Work Requirements

Many states are anticipating a variety of implementation challenges, including the need for complex system changes, a compressed implementation timeline, and limited staff capacity.

What is the Medicaid Hardship Exception?

The number of Medicaid expansion enrollees who ultimately qualify for the high unemployment hardship exception will depend on how the exception is implemented and how unemployment rates changes.

Tracking Implementation of the 2025 Reconciliation Law: Medicaid Work Requirements

KFF’s interactive tracks key data and policies that will affect how states implement Medicaid work requirements, which are required under the 2025 budget reconciliation law starting in January 2027. The tracker includes state-level data on Medicaid enrollment and renewal outcomes as well as current state enrollment and renewal policies.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

The Essentials

  • 5 Facts: Immigrants and Medicaid

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

    This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • Medicaid Financing: The Basics

    Medicaid is a major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term services and supports for low-income residents. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid’s Share of National Health Spending

    This brief explores how Medicaid spending contributes to national health spending and how different service areas contribute to Medicaid costs.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Nursing Facilities

    The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

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  • Section 1115 Waiver Watch: Medicaid Pre-Release Services for People Who Are Incarcerated

    Issue Brief

    In April 2023, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released guidance encouraging states to apply for a new Section 1115 demonstration opportunity to test transition-related strategies to support community reentry for people who are incarcerated. As of August 19, 2024, CMS has approved Section 1115 reentry waiver requests from 11 states, while 13 additional reentry waivers remain pending.

  • Disparities in Health and Health Care: 5 Key Questions and Answers

    Issue Brief

    Disparities in health and health care for people of color and underserved groups are longstanding challenges. This brief provides an introduction to what health and health care disparities are, why it is important to address disparities, the status of disparities today, recent federal actions to address disparities, and key issues related to addressing disparities looking ahead.

  • The Collision of Medicaid World Views

    From Drew Altman

    In his latest column, KFF President and CEO Drew Altman writes about the fundamentally different world views of the Medicaid program by Republicans and Democrats and how those ideological divides have affected policy proposals, sometimes despite the program's popularity and broad reach.

  • Compare the Candidates on Health Care Policy

    Feature

    The side-by-side comparison tool provides a quick overview of former President Trump's and Vice President Harris' records, positions, public statements, and proposed policies on a range of key health care topics.

  • 10 Things About Long-Term Services and Supports (LTSS)

    Issue Brief

    Medicaid paid for more than half of the $415 billion that the US spent on long-term services and supports in 2022, most of which went to home and community-based services as well as to care in nursing homes and other institutional settings.

  • Health Insurer Financial Performance in 2023

    Issue Brief

    Using health insurer financial data for 2023, we find that in 2023, per enrollee gross margins were highest in the Medicare Advantage market, and medical loss ratios were lowest in the individual insurance market. Across most markets, gross margins have been relatively stable in recent years.

  • Supreme Court Decision Limiting the Authority of Federal Agencies Could Have Far-Reaching Impacts for Health Policy

    Issue Brief

    On June 28, 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a longstanding legal precedent that required federal courts to defer to reasonable agency interpretation when statutes are ambiguous. The decision will shift many policy decisions from federal agencies to federal judges, with implications for health policy that will reverberate for years to come. This issue brief examines the decision and assesses what’s ahead.