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What to Watch

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Work Requirements

Challenges with Implementing Work Requirements

Many states are anticipating a variety of implementation challenges, including the need for complex system changes, a compressed implementation timeline, and limited staff capacity.

What is the Medicaid Hardship Exception?

The number of Medicaid expansion enrollees who ultimately qualify for the high unemployment hardship exception will depend on how the exception is implemented and how unemployment rates changes.

Tracking Implementation of the 2025 Reconciliation Law: Medicaid Work Requirements

KFF’s interactive tracks key data and policies that will affect how states implement Medicaid work requirements, which are required under the 2025 budget reconciliation law starting in January 2027. The tracker includes state-level data on Medicaid enrollment and renewal outcomes as well as current state enrollment and renewal policies.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

The Essentials

  • 5 Facts: Immigrants and Medicaid

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

    This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • Medicaid Financing: The Basics

    Medicaid is a major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term services and supports for low-income residents. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid’s Share of National Health Spending

    This brief explores how Medicaid spending contributes to national health spending and how different service areas contribute to Medicaid costs.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Nursing Facilities

    The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

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  • States Look to Bolster Maternal Health

    Feature

    Starting April 1, states have a new option to extend Medicaid postpartum coverage from 60 days to 12 months without having to seek a waiver.

  • Medicaid Administrative Data: Challenges with Race, Ethnicity, and Other Demographic Variables

    Issue Brief

    There are persistent disparities in health and health care for people of color, which reflect structural and systemic inequities rooted in racism and discrimination. High-quality comprehensive data are key to enabling policymakers, community leaders, and other key stakeholders to identify and address these inequities and measure progress over time. Medicaid/CHIP administrative data, also known as Transformed Medicaid Statistical Information System (T-MSIS) or TAF (T-MSIS Analytic File), hold the potential to inform disparities research through detailed demographic, service utilization, and spending data of Medicaid and CHIP beneficiaries —but there are current limitations.

  • Nursing Facility Staff Vaccinations, Boosters, and Shortages After Vaccination Deadlines Passed

    Issue Brief

    This analysis uses nursing facility-level data reported by the federal government to track the increase in vaccination rates among nursing facility staff nationally and by state between August 2021 (when the vaccine mandate was first announced) and March 27th, 2022 (after the vaccine deadline for health workers had passed in all states). Additionally, this analysis provides state-level information on booster rates among nursing home staff and the prevalence of staffing shortages after all vaccination deadlines had passed.

  • Mitigating Childhood Lead Exposure and Disparities: Medicaid and Other Federal Initiatives

    Issue Brief

    Exposure to lead can seriously harm a child’s health, including damage to the brain and nervous system, slowed growth and development, learning and behavior problems, and hearing and speech problems. The effects of lead on the nervous system can cause lower IQ, decreased ability to pay attention, and under performance in school.

  • How Community Health Centers Are Serving Low-Income Communities During the COVID-19 Pandemic Amid New and Continuing Challenges

    Issue Brief

    Community health centers are a national network of safety-net primary care providers serving low-income, medically underserved communities. Based on findings from a national survey of health centers, this brief examines how the pandemic has affected health center patients and services as well as the ongoing challenges health centers and their patients face.

  • How Did Medicaid Renewal Outcomes Change During the Unwinding?

    Policy Watch

    This policy watch uses unwinding data collected through KFF’s Medicaid Enrollment and Unwinding Tracker to examine how national-level renewal outcomes changed over the course of unwinding, including changes in the share of people who had their coverage renewed or were disenrolled from Medicaid each month.

  • Medicaid Waiver Priorities Under the Trump and Biden-Harris Administrations

    Issue Brief

    Section 1115 Medicaid demonstration waivers offer states an avenue to test new approaches in Medicaid that differ from what is required by federal statute, so long as the approach is likely to “promote the objectives of the Medicaid program.” As with broader Medicaid policy, the future landscape of Section 1115 waivers depends on the outcome of the November 2024 presidential election as a new administration could focus on different priorities, rescind existing guidance, or withdraw already-approved waivers. This waiver watch summarizes five key areas of difference in 1115 waiver policy and waiver approvals under the Trump and Biden-Harris administrations.

  • Again, No Medicaid

    From Drew Altman

    In his latest column, KFF President and CEO Drew Altman explains why Medicaid, despite former President Donald Trump's silence on the topic, warrants greater attention given the potential for drastic changes or cuts to it should Republicans win control in the election.

  • What Administrative Changes Can Trump Make to Medicaid?

    Policy Watch

    With Donald Trump returning to the presidency, the future of Medicaid is uncertain. While Medicaid did not receive a lot of attention directly during the campaign, Trump’s first term can shed light on potential changes that could be implemented administratively without Congress.