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2025 Reconciliation Law

How Will the 2025 Reconciliation Law Affect the Uninsured Rate in Each State?

This analysis apportions the increase in the number of uninsured across the 50 states and DC. CBO estimates that the reconciliation law will increase the number of uninsured by 10 million in 2034. That number would rise to over 14 million if enhanced premium tax credits for ACA Marketplace enrollees expire later this year.

ANALYSIS

Allocating Federal Medicaid Spending Reductions Across States

Policy Tracker

Medicaid Provisions in the 2025 Budget Reconciliation Law

ANALYSIS

How Might Federal Medicaid Cuts Affect Rural Areas?

From Drew Altman

Can Democrats Make Medicaid and ACA Cuts Their Winning Political Issue?

Work Requirements

How Will States Implement Medicaid Work Requirements?

Event Date:

Four experts, including two state Medicaid directors, will join Health Wonk Shop moderator Larry Levitt in an hour-long discussion of how states will go about implementing new Medicaid work requirements.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • Adults with Mental Illness

    Options under consideration in Congress to significantly reduce Medicaid spending could have major implications for adults who live with mental illness.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

The Essentials

  • 5 Facts: Immigrants and Medicaid

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

    This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • Medicaid Financing: The Basics

    Medicaid is a major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term services and supports for low-income residents. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid’s Share of National Health Spending

    This brief explores how Medicaid spending contributes to national health spending and how different service areas contribute to Medicaid costs.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Nursing Facilities

    The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

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  • Medicaid Expansion Waivers: What Will We Learn?

    Issue Brief

    Section 1115 waivers authorize research and demonstration projects that, in the view of the Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary, further the purposes of the Medicaid program. The ACA implemented new requirements for these waivers, including that states must have a publicly available, approved evaluation strategy. This brief examines some of the major research questions and hypotheses relevant to the federal and state evaluations of Medicaid expansion Section 1115 waivers and explores key challenges that may hamper research and evaluation efforts.

  • Outreach and Enrollment Strategies for Reaching the Medicaid Eligible but Uninsured Population

    Issue Brief

    This brief identifies a range of successful strategies to reach and enroll Medicaid- and CHIP-eligible individuals as well as options to facilitate renewals. It draws on a collection of previous work examining state enrollment experiences after implementation of the ACA. In sum, it shows that states that have achieved enrollment success have embraced an array of strategies and approaches that include promoting the expansion through strong leadership and collaboration, implementing broad marketing and outreach campaigns, establishing a coordinated and diverse network of assisters, developing effective eligibility and enrollment systems that coordinate with the Marketplace, and planning ahead to translate coverage gains into improved access to care.

  • How has the ACA Medicaid Expansion Affected Providers Serving the Homeless Population: Analysis of Coverage, Revenues, and Costs

    Issue Brief

    To further understand how the first full year of Medicaid expansion has affected patients who are homeless and the providers who care for them, this analysis uses data from the Uniform Data System (UDS) for health centers to examine changes in insurance coverage, revenues and costs among Health Care for the Homeless (HCH) projects serving the homeless population.

  • The Affordable Care Act After Six Years

    From Drew Altman

    In this column for The Wall Street Journal’s Think Tank, Drew Altman examines the role of the Affordable Care Act in the health system on its sixth anniversary, and how the hot debate about the law may have created an exaggerated impression of the good and the bad it can do.

  • “Partial Medicaid Expansion” with ACA Enhanced Matching Funds: Implications for Financing and Coverage

    Issue Brief

    The Affordable Care Act (ACA) provides enhanced federal matching funds to states that expand Medicaid to nonelderly adults up to 138% of the federal poverty level (FPL, $17,236/year for an individual in 2019). The ACA enhanced match (93% in 2019, and 90% in 2020 and thereafter) is substantially higher than states’ traditional Medicaid matching rate. A few states have sought Section 1115 demonstration waiver authority from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to receive the substantially higher ACA enhanced match while limiting coverage to individuals at 100% FPL, instead of covering the full 138% FPL ACA group. To date, CMS has allowed states to receive the ACA enhanced Medicaid matching funds only if the entire expansion group is covered. CMS has not approved waiver requests seeking enhanced ACA matching funds for a partial coverage expansion in Arkansas or Massachusetts, while a request is pending in Utah. This brief explores the current rules for partial expansion and explains some of the potential implications for financing and coverage if CMS approves waivers to allow for partial expansion with enhanced matching funds.

  • Key State Policy Choices About Medical Frailty Determinations for Medicaid Expansion Adults

    Issue Brief

    This issue brief answers 3 key questions and provides new data about state medical frailty determinations, which are assuming greater importance as more states adopt restrictive Section 1115 waivers that exempt medically frail enrollees from policies such as work requirements and premiums. The findings are excerpted from our 50-state survey on Medicaid financial eligibility for seniors and people with disabilities.