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What to Watch

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Work Requirements

Challenges with Implementing Work Requirements

Many states are anticipating a variety of implementation challenges, including the need for complex system changes, a compressed implementation timeline, and limited staff capacity.

What is the Medicaid Hardship Exception?

The number of Medicaid expansion enrollees who ultimately qualify for the high unemployment hardship exception will depend on how the exception is implemented and how unemployment rates changes.

Tracking Implementation of the 2025 Reconciliation Law: Medicaid Work Requirements

KFF’s interactive tracks key data and policies that will affect how states implement Medicaid work requirements, which are required under the 2025 budget reconciliation law starting in January 2027. The tracker includes state-level data on Medicaid enrollment and renewal outcomes as well as current state enrollment and renewal policies.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

The Essentials

  • 5 Facts: Immigrants and Medicaid

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

    This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • Medicaid Financing: The Basics

    Medicaid is a major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term services and supports for low-income residents. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid’s Share of National Health Spending

    This brief explores how Medicaid spending contributes to national health spending and how different service areas contribute to Medicaid costs.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Nursing Facilities

    The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

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  • Medicaid Authorities and Options to Address Social Determinants of Health

    Issue Brief

    Social determinants of health (SDOH) are the conditions in which people are born, grow, live, work and age. While there are limits, states can use Medicaid – which, by design, serves a primarily low-income population with greater social needs – to address social determinants of health. This brief outlines the range of Medicaid authorities and flexibilities that can be used to add benefits and design programs to address the social determinants of health.

  • State Medicaid Home & Community-Based Services (HCBS) Programs Respond to COVID-19: Early Findings from a 50-State Survey

    Issue Brief

    This issue brief presents early findings from the most recent KFF survey of Medicaid HCBS programs in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. It focuses on state policies adopted in response to challenges posed by the pandemic, the pandemic’s impact on Medicaid HCBS enrollees and providers, and states’ initial plans for the new American Rescue Plan Act 10 percentage point temporary increase in federal Medicaid matching funds for HCBS available from April 2021 through March 2022.

  • The Impact of the COVID-19 Recession on Medicaid Coverage and Spending

    Issue Brief

    Unlike previous recessions in modern history, this past recession was spurred by the spread of a virus (COVID-19), which created a public health crisis with unique health implications. This brief describes the broader impacts of this most recent recession – which lasted from February 2020 to April 2020 -- and also explores how trends in Medicaid spending and enrollment differed from past recessions and what that might mean for state Medicaid programs moving forward.

  • Unwinding of the PHE: Maintaining Medicaid for People with Limited English Proficiency

    Issue Brief

    Provisions in the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA) require states to maintain continuous Medicaid enrollment for enrollees until the end of the month when the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE) ends. When the continuous enrollment requirements end and states resume redeterminations and disenrollments, individuals with LEP may be at increased risk of losing Medicaid coverage or experiencing a gap in coverage due to barriers completing these processes, even if they remain eligible for coverage.

  • Medicaid Home & Community-Based Services: People Served and Spending During COVID-19

    Issue Brief

    This issue brief presents FY 2020 state-level data on the number of people receiving Medicaid HCBS and HCBS spending. This is the latest data available, and the first since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The data were collected in KFF’s 19th survey of state officials administering Medicaid HCBS programs in all 50 states and DC. A related brief presents the latest data and highlights themes in key state policy choices about optional HCBS.

  • How Many Medicaid Enrollees Moved In 2020 And What Are The Implications For Unwinding the Public Health Emergency?

    Issue Brief

    Once states resume redeterminations and disenrollments at the end of the public health emergency (PHE), Medicaid enrollees who moved within a state during the pandemic but are still eligible for coverage are at increased risk of being disenrolled if their contact information is out of date. We analyzed federal survey data for 2020 and found that roughly 1 in 10 Medicaid non-elderly enrollees (9%) moved in-state in 2020. A much smaller share, just 1%, moved to a different state in the U.S. Individuals that move within state may continue to be eligible for Medicaid, while a move out of state would make them no longer eligible for Medicaid coverage in their previous residence. States can take a number of actions to update enrollees’ addresses and other contact information to minimize coverage gaps and losses for eligible individuals after the end of the PHE, particularly for individuals who may have moved within a state.

  • What to Watch in Medicaid Section 1115 Waivers One Year into the Biden Administration

    Issue Brief

    Section 1115 demonstration waivers provide states an avenue to test new approaches in Medicaid and generally reflect changing priorities from one presidential administration to another. This issue brief summarizes waiver priorities and actions under the Biden Administration as well as pending waiver themes and other issues to watch. If the Build Back Better Act (BBBA) fails to pass or is narrowed significantly, Medicaid waivers and other administrative actions may be a key tool for the Biden Administration to advance policy priorities absent legislation.