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What to Watch

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Work Requirements

Challenges with Implementing Work Requirements

Many states are anticipating a variety of implementation challenges, including the need for complex system changes, a compressed implementation timeline, and limited staff capacity.

What is the Medicaid Hardship Exception?

The number of Medicaid expansion enrollees who ultimately qualify for the high unemployment hardship exception will depend on how the exception is implemented and how unemployment rates changes.

Tracking Implementation of the 2025 Reconciliation Law: Medicaid Work Requirements

KFF’s interactive tracks key data and policies that will affect how states implement Medicaid work requirements, which are required under the 2025 budget reconciliation law starting in January 2027. The tracker includes state-level data on Medicaid enrollment and renewal outcomes as well as current state enrollment and renewal policies.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

The Essentials

  • 5 Facts: Immigrants and Medicaid

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

    This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • Medicaid Financing: The Basics

    Medicaid is a major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term services and supports for low-income residents. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid’s Share of National Health Spending

    This brief explores how Medicaid spending contributes to national health spending and how different service areas contribute to Medicaid costs.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Nursing Facilities

    The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

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  • Addressing Health and Social Needs of California’s Immigrant Families: Lessons Learned from Local Responses and Future Priorities

    Event Date:
    Event

    A flurry of federal activity on immigration rules and policies is affecting health care and coverage for both lawfully residing immigrants and undocumented immigrants in the country, ranging from deportation policies, a revised “public charge” rule, and a new proclamation from President Trump requiring health insurance for entry via immigrant visas.

  • Federal Legislation to Address the Opioid Crisis: Medicaid Provisions in the SUPPORT Act

    Issue Brief

    On October 3, 2018, the Senate overwhelmingly passed comprehensive, bipartisan legislation to address the opioid epidemic, sending the measure to President Trump who has indicated he will sign it. The bill, the Substance Use Disorder Prevention that Promotes Opioid Recovery and Treatment for Patients and Communities (SUPPORT) Act, was passed earlier by the House and tackles many aspects of the epidemic, including treatment, prevention, recovery, and enforcement. While very broad in scope, the final legislation contains a number of provisions related to Medicaid’s role in helping states provide coverage and services to people who need substance use disorder (SUD) treatment, particularly those needing opioid use disorder (OUD) treatment.

  • What Does the Outcome of the Midterm Elections Mean for Medicaid Expansion?

    Fact Sheet

    While not typically an election issue, Medicaid — particularly the Medicaid expansion created under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) — was an important issue in the 2018 midterm elections in a number of campaigns throughout the country. This fact sheet highlights key states in which the results of the 2018 midterm elections have implications for Medicaid adoption or implementation. States examined include those that had Medicaid expansion ballot initiatives as well as states that have not yet adopted or implemented expansion but elected governors who support Medicaid expansion. In these states that had gubernatorial races with implications for Medicaid expansion, it will be important to monitor changes in the composition of state legislatures, as governors in most states will need to work with their legislatures in order to adopt the expansion.

  • The New Health Care Agenda: Gridlock, Lots of Hearings

    From Drew Altman

    In an Axios column, Drew Altman analyzes what the midterm election means for the health policy agenda between now and 2020--mostly political positioning and gridlock in Congress, with most of the action affecting people in the states. 

  • President Trump’s Record on Health Care

    Issue Brief

    This issue brief provides a detailed overview of the Trump Administration’s record on health care issues relating to: the Administration’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the ACA and private insurance markets, Medicaid, Medicare, reducing prescription drug and other health care costs, sexual and reproductive health, mental health and substance use, immigration and health, long-term care, HIV/AIDS policy, and LGBTQ health.

  • How Many Uninsured Adults Could Be Reached If All States Expanded Medicaid?

    Issue Brief

    As more people lose their jobs and accompanying ESI, more may fall into the coverage gap, particularly starting in 2021 after unemployment benefits expire for many who have lost their jobs and incomes are likely to drop below the minimum threshold for marketplace subsidies. This analysis estimates how many uninsured adults—including those uninsured even before the pandemic and those who could become uninsured as a result of it— could become eligible for Medicaid if states that have not yet expanded the program do so.