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What to Watch

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Work Requirements

Challenges with Implementing Work Requirements

Many states are anticipating a variety of implementation challenges, including the need for complex system changes, a compressed implementation timeline, and limited staff capacity.

What is the Medicaid Hardship Exception?

The number of Medicaid expansion enrollees who ultimately qualify for the high unemployment hardship exception will depend on how the exception is implemented and how unemployment rates changes.

Tracking Implementation of the 2025 Reconciliation Law: Medicaid Work Requirements

KFF’s interactive tracks key data and policies that will affect how states implement Medicaid work requirements, which are required under the 2025 budget reconciliation law starting in January 2027. The tracker includes state-level data on Medicaid enrollment and renewal outcomes as well as current state enrollment and renewal policies.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

The Essentials

  • 5 Facts: Immigrants and Medicaid

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

    This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • Medicaid Financing: The Basics

    Medicaid is a major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term services and supports for low-income residents. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid’s Share of National Health Spending

    This brief explores how Medicaid spending contributes to national health spending and how different service areas contribute to Medicaid costs.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Nursing Facilities

    The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

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  • Voces de Puerto Rico: Reflexiones Dos Meses Después de María (Informe)

    Issue Brief

    Dos meses después que el huracán María tocara tierra, la Kaiser Family Foundation viajó a Puerto Rico. Este informe presenta los resultados de grupos focales y entrevistas individuales con 40 personas de 10 diferentes regiones de la isla afectadas por la tormenta.

  • Medicaid: What to Watch in 2018 from the Administration, Congress, and the States

    Issue Brief

    Medicaid provides health insurance coverage for about one in five Americans and is the largest payer for long-term care services in the community and nursing homes. Efforts in 2017 to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and cap federal financing for Medicaid were unsuccessful but help to set the stage for 2018. As 2018 begins, there is a focus on administrative actions using Medicaid Section 1115 demonstration waivers, state actions on Medicaid expansion, and funding for the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) and other federal health care priorities. Medicaid in 2018 is also likely to continue to be part of both federal and state budget deliberations. Pressures to control the federal deficit may reignite efforts to reduce or cap federal Medicaid spending. In addition, Governors will soon release proposed budgets for state FY 2019 that will need to account for uncertainty around CHIP and Medicaid, changes in the economy and the effects of the recent tax legislation as well as funding for rising prescription drugs and initiatives to combat the opioid epidemic. This brief examines these issues.

  • Summary of the 2018 CHIP Funding Extension

    Fact Sheet

    On January 22, 2018, Congress passed a six-year extension of CHIP funding as part of a broader continuing resolution to fund the federal government. Federal funding for CHIP had expired on September 30, 2017. Without additional funding available, states operated their CHIP programs using remaining funds from previous years. However, some states came close to exhausting funding, leading them to make contingency plans to reduce coverage and notify families of potential coverage reductions. In late December 2017, Congress provided some short-term funding for early 2018, but some states still expected to exhaust funds by March 2018. The six-year funding extension provides stable funding for states to continue their CHIP coverage. This fact sheet provides a summary of key provisions of the CHIP funding extension.

  • Kaiser Health Tracking Poll – January 2018: The Public’s Priorities and Next Steps for the Affordable Care Act

    Feature

    With the 2018 midterm elections still about ten months away, the January Kaiser Health Tracking poll examines what issues voters most want 2018 midterm candidates to talk about during their upcoming campaigns. Health care is at the top of a group of issues but health care is less important to Republicans and among voters in battleground states. While Congress is currently debating a budget to keep the government funded beyond February 8, 2018, the poll also examines the public’s priorities for President Trump and Congress and measures support for reducing federal funding for government programs.

  • Why Medicaid Work Requirements Aren’t the Same as Welfare Reform

    From Drew Altman

    Drawing on his experience in state welfare reform, Drew Altman, in his Axios column, discusses how new state Medicaid work requirements differ fundamentally from welfare reform, which was built on the idea of a “reciprocal obligation” between both beneficiaries and government to do more.  

  • Health Care Ranks Among Voters’ Top Issues for the 2018 Midterm Elections, But It’s a Lower Priority Among Voters in Battleground States and Districts

    News Release

    Only One in Three Know the Tax Reform Law Repeals the ACA’s Unpopular Individual Mandate Health care and the economy and jobs top voters’ list as “the most important issue” for Congressional candidates to talk about ahead of November’s midterm elections, but the lineup shifts among voters in states and districts with competitive elections, the…

  • Beyond Health Care: The Role of Social Determinants in Promoting Health and Health Equity

    Issue Brief

    Research demonstrates that improving population health and achieving health equity will require broad approaches that address social, economic, and environmental factors that influence health. This brief provides an overview of the broad factors that influence health and describes efforts to address them, including initiatives within Medicaid.

  • Implications of the ACA Medicaid Expansion: A Look at the Data and Evidence

    Issue Brief

    More than four years after the implementation of the Medicaid expansion included in the Affordable Care Act, debate and controversy around the implications of the expansion continue. Despite a large body of research that shows that the Medicaid expansion results in gains in coverage, improvements in access and financial security, and economic benefits for states and providers, some argue that the Medicaid expansion has broadened the program beyond its original intent diverting spending from the “truly needy”, offers poor quality and limited access to providers, and has increased state costs. New proposals allow states to implement policies never approved before including conditioning Medicaid eligibility on work or community engagement. New complex requirements run counter to the post-ACA movement of Medicaid integration with other health programs and streamlined enrollment processes. This brief examines evidence of the effects of the Medicaid expansion and some changes being implemented through waivers. Many of the findings on the effects of expansion cited in this brief are drawn from the 202 studies included in our comprehensive literature review that includes additional citations on coverage, access, and economic effects of the Medicaid expansion.