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What to Watch

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Work Requirements

Challenges with Implementing Work Requirements

Many states are anticipating a variety of implementation challenges, including the need for complex system changes, a compressed implementation timeline, and limited staff capacity.

What is the Medicaid Hardship Exception?

The number of Medicaid expansion enrollees who ultimately qualify for the high unemployment hardship exception will depend on how the exception is implemented and how unemployment rates changes.

Tracking Implementation of the 2025 Reconciliation Law: Medicaid Work Requirements

KFF’s interactive tracks key data and policies that will affect how states implement Medicaid work requirements, which are required under the 2025 budget reconciliation law starting in January 2027. The tracker includes state-level data on Medicaid enrollment and renewal outcomes as well as current state enrollment and renewal policies.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

The Essentials

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Provider Taxes

    This brief describe states’ current provider taxes and how the 2025 reconciliation law changed the federal rules governing them, including potential impacts across states.

  • Medicaid Financing: The Basics

    Medicaid is a major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term services and supports for low-income residents. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

  • 5 Facts: Immigrants and Medicaid

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

    This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Nursing Facilities

    The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.
Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

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  • Unwinding of Medicaid Continuous Enrollment: Key Themes from the Field

    Issue Brief

    Data are important to help monitor how unwinding is going across states, but trackers and dashboards only tell part of the unwinding story. This brief examines the perspectives of state officials and others involved in the unwinding process. The brief provides information on outreach and engagement, renewal processes and coverage transitions, providing lessons for the ongoing unwinding process, as well as for how to conduct more effective Medicaid renewals generally in the future.

  • 10 Things to Know About the Unwinding of the Medicaid Continuous Enrollment Provision

    Issue Brief

    Medicaid enrollment increased since the start of the pandemic, primarily due to the continuous enrollment provision.KFF estimates that between 8 million and 24 million people will lose Medicaid coverage during the unwinding of the continuous enrollment provision.The Medicaid continuous enrollment provision stopped “churn” among Medicaid enrollees.States approaches to unwinding the continuous enrollment provision vary.

  • Medicaid Work Requirements

    Event Date:
    Event

    Three experts joined series moderator Larry Levitt in a discussion about work and reporting requirements in public programs such as Medicaid, their effects on enrollment and employment, and what we can expect on the state and federal levels regarding the future of Medicaid work requirements.

  • A Look at Substance Use Disorders (SUD) Among Medicaid Enrollees

    Issue Brief

    In its role as a public program and the single largest payer of behavioral health services in the country, Medicaid is particularly well positioned to implement policy to improve the delivery, quality, and effectiveness of behavioral health services. Our analysis finds that 7.3 percent of Medicaid enrollees ages 12 to 64 had at least one clinically-identified substance use disorder in 2019, but this is likely an undercount, as other research suggests that prevalence is at least 4 times higher. People with clinically-identified SUD were more likely to be male, White, over 25 years old, and qualify for Medicaid based on a disability or through Medicaid expansion. Rates of clinically-identified SUD vary across states not only because of prevalence, but also because of other factors, such as provider screening behavior and variation in Medicaid coverage of services. National recommendations instruct providers to screen for substance use and conduct brief interventions for adults 18+, yet there may be gaps between SUD screening and referral. Other factors--such as patient privacy concerns or few healthcare visits--may also play a role in low identification of SUD.