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Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Medicaid Watch

Featuring policy research, polling and news about how Medicaid is changing, and the impact of those changes due to the tax and spending cuts law

Medicaid and work

Tracking Medicaid Work Requirements:
Data and Policies

To implement Medicaid work requirements, states will need to make important policy and operational decisions, implement needed system upgrades or changes, develop new outreach and education strategies, and hire and train staff, all within a relatively short timeframe. The information tracked here can serve as a resource to understand Medicaid work requirements and state options, gauge readiness, and track implementation of the requirements.

understanding medicaid

5 Facts: Provider Taxes

All states except Alaska cover some state Medicaid costs with taxes on health care providers. This brief uses data from KFF’s 2024-2025 survey of Medicaid directors to describe current practices and the federal rules governing them.

5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

Absorbing reductions in Medicaid spending could be challenging for hospitals, particularly for those that are financially vulnerable. This brief provides data on the reach of Medicaid across hospitals, patients, and charity care.

5 Facts: Medicaid and Immigrants

Confusion persists about immigrants’ eligibility for federal programs. This brief helps readers understand how current Medicaid policy affects immigrants as well as the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

5 Facts: Medicaid and Rural Areas

Approximately 66 million people live in rural areas – about 20% of the U.S. population. Nearly 1 in 4 of them have Medicaid, a higher share than in urban areas (24% vs 21%).

5 Facts: Nursing Facilities

The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill that has been passed by the House could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

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  • Medicaid Delivery System and Payment Reform: A Guide to Key Terms and Concepts

    Fact Sheet

    There is wide state variation in Medicaid health care delivery and payment systems, as states design and combine service delivery models and payment approaches in a multitude of ways. To help those interested in understanding the diversity of Medicaid reform initiatives underway or in development in states across the country, this guide defines key terms.

  • Kaiser–Commonwealth Fund Survey: Most Primary Care Providers Report Seeing More Medicaid or Newly Insured Patients Since January 2014, But Little Change in Ability to Provide Quality Care

    News Release

    As with the Public, Physicians' Views on Affordable Care Act Split Along Party Lines The first in a series of reports on a comprehensive new survey finds most primary care doctors, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants report an increase in Medicaid or newly insured patients since the Affordable Care Act's (ACA) major coverage provisions took…

  • How Have State Medicaid Expansion Decisions Affected the Experiences of Low-Income Adults? Perspectives from Ohio, Arkansas, and Missouri

    Issue Brief

    This brief examines the experiences of low-income adults in three states that have made varied Medicaid expansion decisions: Ohio, which adopted the ACA Medicaid expansion, Arkansas which implemented the Medicaid expansion through a “Private Option” waiver, and Missouri, which has not adopted the expansion. While Arkansas and Ohio implemented the expansion in different ways, participants in both states described how obtaining coverage improved their ability to access care, contributing to improvements in their ability to work and family relationships. In contrast, participants in Missouri remained uninsured limiting their ability to obtain needed care, creating significant stress and anxiety in their lives, and interfering with their ability to work and care for their families.

  • Children’s Coverage: What Matters Most to Parents Results from Focus Groups in 6 Cities

    Issue Brief

    This report is based on based on focus group discussions with parents with moderate incomes enrolled in private coverage (employer sponsored or Marketplace) who had children in public coverage (primarily CHIP) or children with private coverage. This report is based on 14 focus group discussions conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation and John Snow, Inc. in six cities during February and March 2015. Sites included Birmingham, AL, Chicago, IL, Denver, CO, Philadelphia, PA, and Tampa, FL. Each of these states operate separate CHIP programs. An additional 4 focus groups were conducted in Los Angeles, CA (two in English and two in Spanish). The purpose of the groups was to gain insight into what low and middle-income families value in their children’s coverage, their experiences with CHIP and private insurance, and on parents’ perspectives on the future of CHIP. The information gathered can help inform policy questions such as would private coverage (either employer sponsored coverage or Marketplace) or Medicaid work for children who currently are enrolled in CHIP?

  • Medicaid Balancing Incentive Program: A Survey of Participating States

    Report

    The Balancing Incentive Program provides enhanced federal matching funds, allowing states to advance their efforts to rebalance Medicaid long-term services and supports (LTSS) spending and expand access to home and community-based services as an alternative to institutional care. This report highlights participating states' efforts to implement the program's three structural requirements and use the enhanced federal funds in support of other Medicaid LTSS rebalancing efforts.

  • Behavioral Health Parity and Medicaid

    Issue Brief

    This issue brief explains how behavioral health parity applies in the Medicaid program, including the major provisions of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ (CMS) April 10, 2015 proposed regulations, and identifies key policy issues at the intersection of behavioral health parity and Medicaid.