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Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Medicaid Watch

Featuring policy research, polling and news about how Medicaid is changing, and the impact of those changes due to the tax and spending cuts law

Medicaid and work

Tracking Medicaid Work Requirements:
Data and Policies

To implement Medicaid work requirements, states will need to make important policy and operational decisions, implement needed system upgrades or changes, develop new outreach and education strategies, and hire and train staff, all within a relatively short timeframe. The information tracked here can serve as a resource to understand Medicaid work requirements and state options, gauge readiness, and track implementation of the requirements.

understanding medicaid

5 Facts: Provider Taxes

All states except Alaska cover some state Medicaid costs with taxes on health care providers. This brief uses data from KFF’s 2024-2025 survey of Medicaid directors to describe current practices and the federal rules governing them.

5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

Absorbing reductions in Medicaid spending could be challenging for hospitals, particularly for those that are financially vulnerable. This brief provides data on the reach of Medicaid across hospitals, patients, and charity care.

5 Facts: Medicaid and Immigrants

Confusion persists about immigrants’ eligibility for federal programs. This brief helps readers understand how current Medicaid policy affects immigrants as well as the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

5 Facts: Medicaid and Rural Areas

Approximately 66 million people live in rural areas – about 20% of the U.S. population. Nearly 1 in 4 of them have Medicaid, a higher share than in urban areas (24% vs 21%).

5 Facts: Nursing Facilities

The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill that has been passed by the House could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

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  • State Actions to Address Nursing Home Staffing During COVID-19

    Issue Brief

    This issue brief summarizes federal and state standards related to nursing home staffing prior to COVID-19 and builds on existing information by identifying changes to state minimum staffing requirements adopted since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We also examine state legislative and regulatory actions since the onset of the pandemic that directly affect worker wages and training requirements.

  • An Overview of Medicaid Work Requirements: What Happened Under the Trump and Biden Administrations?

    Issue Brief

    The Trump Administration aimed to reshape the Medicaid program by newly approving Section 1115 demonstration waivers that imposed work and reporting requirements as a condition of Medicaid eligibility. However, courts struck down many of these approvals and the Supreme Court recently dismissed pending challenges in these cases. Available implementation data suggests that work requirements were confusing to enrollees and result in substantial coverage loss, including among eligible individuals.

  • Unwinding the PHE: What We Can Learn From Pre-Pandemic Enrollment Patterns

    Issue Brief

    This brief examines typical enrollment patterns for Medicaid and CHIP and uses 2018 Medicaid claims data to gain insight into the effects of the continuous enrollment requirements by eligibility group. Roughly 2% of Medicaid enrollees come on or leave the program in an average month, although there is variation across eligibility groups. A policy to require continuous enrollment would result in sharp reductions in monthly disenrollment rates and would also reduce monthly enrollment rates due to reductions in churn.

  • KFF Survey of Consumer Experiences with Health Insurance

    Poll Finding

    The survey finds nearly six in 10 people with health insurance experienced a problem using their insurance in the past year, with even larger shares reporting problems among people who are sick or who have mental health needs. It includes data for people with different types of coverage, including employer, Marketplace, Medicare and Medicaid, and also examines affordability issues and mental health access.

  • Behavioral Health Crisis Response: Findings from a Survey of State Medicaid Programs

    Issue Brief

    Crisis behavioral health services provide access to trained mental health professionals for individuals experiencing mental health or substance use emergencies--an alternative to emergency departments and law enforcement. About three-quarters of responding state Medicaid programs do not cover all three core crisis services for FFS adults, but most states cover at least one core behavioral health crisis service. As crisis response systems continue to grow and expand, states are navigating a variety of concerns—including workforce shortages, training needs, geographic challenges, and uncertainty about sustainable funding.

  • How Do Dual-Eligible Individuals Get Their Medicare Coverage?

    Issue Brief

    People who are dually eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid coverage can get their Medicare coverage in a variety of ways. The brief breaks out the data for traditional Medicare, Medicare Advantage plans that are available to all Medicare beneficiaries, and plans that are designed specifically for dual-eligible beneficiaries.