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What to Watch

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Work Requirements

Challenges with Implementing Work Requirements

Many states are anticipating a variety of implementation challenges, including the need for complex system changes, a compressed implementation timeline, and limited staff capacity.

What is the Medicaid Hardship Exception?

The number of Medicaid expansion enrollees who ultimately qualify for the high unemployment hardship exception will depend on how the exception is implemented and how unemployment rates changes.

Tracking Implementation of the 2025 Reconciliation Law: Medicaid Work Requirements

KFF’s interactive tracks key data and policies that will affect how states implement Medicaid work requirements, which are required under the 2025 budget reconciliation law starting in January 2027. The tracker includes state-level data on Medicaid enrollment and renewal outcomes as well as current state enrollment and renewal policies.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

The Essentials

  • 5 Facts: Immigrants and Medicaid

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

    This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • Medicaid Financing: The Basics

    Medicaid is a major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term services and supports for low-income residents. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid’s Share of National Health Spending

    This brief explores how Medicaid spending contributes to national health spending and how different service areas contribute to Medicaid costs.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Nursing Facilities

    The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

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  • CMS’s Final Rule on Medicaid Managed Care: A Summary of Major Provisions

    Issue Brief

    On April 21, 2016, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued final regulations that revise and significantly strengthen existing Medicaid managed care rules. In keeping with states’ increasingly heavy reliance on managed care programs to deliver services to Medicaid beneficiaries, including many with complex care needs, the regulatory framework and new requirements established by the final rule reflect increased federal expectations regarding fundamental aspects of states’ Medicaid managed care programs.

  • Overview of Medicaid Per Capita Cap Proposals

    Issue Brief

    The House Republican Plan (“A Better Way”) released on June 22, 2016, includes a proposal to convert federal Medicaid financing from an open-ended entitlement to a per capita allotment or a block grant (based on a state choice). This proposal is part of a larger package designed to replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and reduce federal spending for health care. Often tied to deficit reduction, proposals to convert Medicaid’s financing structure to a per capita cap or block grant have been proposed before. Such changes represent a fundamental change in the financing structure of the program with major implications for beneficiaries, providers, states and localities. Key things to understand about a per capita cap include the following: how a per capita cap works, key design challenges, and implications of a per capita cap.

  • Two Year Trends in Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment Data: Findings from the CMS Performance Indicator Project

    Issue Brief

    This brief provides an overview of recent trends in Medicaid and CHIP enrollment as of January 2016, based on data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) produced as part of its Performance Indicator Project. The project was designed to provide timely data on Medicaid and CHIP eligibility and enrollment that are intended to help strengthen data-driven program management and oversight efforts at both the national and state level. They also provide insight into Medicaid and CHIP eligibility and enrollment experiences as the ACA is implemented. This brief examines data as of January 2016 to be able to look at two full years of data post implementation of the major coverage provisions in the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

  • Children’s Health Coverage: The Role of Medicaid and CHIP and Issues for the Future

    Issue Brief

    This brief summarizes the role Medicaid and CHIP plays in providing coverage to children, discusses the importance of Medicaid and CHIP for children’s health and well-being, provides an overview of the eligibility for coverage of the remaining uninsured children, and raises issues impacting the future of children’s coverage.

  • Proposed Changes to Medicaid Expansion in Kentucky

    Fact Sheet

    On June 22, 2016, Governor Bevin released his proposed Section 1115 demonstration waiver application called Kentucky HEALTH (Helping to Engage and Achieve Long Term Health) as an alternative to the current Medicaid expansion which is being implemented through a state plan amendment according to the terms in the ACA. On July 3, 2017, Kentucky submitted an amendment, proposing several changes, to its pending waiver application to the new Administration. This fact sheet summarizes the proposed changes to the current Medicaid expansion in Kentucky.