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Individual Market Enrollment Declined by 18% Since June 2025

Individual Market Enrollment Fell 18%, Suggesting Continued ACA Marketplace Losses

Enrollment in the individual health insurance market fell by 18%—over 4.6 million people—from 25.2 million in June 2025 to 20.5 million in June 2026. Falling individual market enrollment suggests further decline in ACA Marketplace enrollment this year, since Marketplace enrollees represent the vast majority of individual market coverage.

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Did the Affordable Care Act Make Health Care More Affordable?

The expiration of the ACA’s enhanced premium tax credits at the start of 2026, combined with rising insurer premiums, put a spotlight on health care affordability that extends beyond Marketplace enrollees. KFF’s Cynthia Cox examines the ACA’s record and the broader underlying question it raises: what’s a fair price for Americans people to pay for health care?

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  • Quick Takes: Timely insights and analysis from KFF staff

    What did Sen. JD Vance mean by ‘Reinsurance?’

    Quick Insights

    Vance’s debate comment likely refers to state reinsurance waivers, largely approved by the Trump Administration. These waivers aimed to lower unsubsidized premiums by offsetting insurer costs for very sick enrollees.

  • Why Might Republicans Consider Extending Obamacare Tax Credits?

    Quick Insights

    KFF Vice President Cynthia Cox takes a broader look at the expiring enhanced tax credits, which Congressional Democrats have made central to their government funding demands, and how they lower health costs for many traditionally Republican constituencies, such as people in southern states, small business owners and employees, farmers and ranchers, older adults, and rural Americans.

  • Is it Too Late for ACA Insurers to Change Their Premiums?

    Quick Insights

    Affordable Care Act Marketplace insurers are raising premiums by an average of 18% next year, due in part to the expiring enhanced premium tax credits. Even if the credits are extended in shutdown negotiations, it is unlikely that insurers will have time to revise premiums, though the credits would still offer enrollees relief from them.

  • Quote image from Shameek Rackshit's quick take reads, "While virtually all subsidized enrollees will pay more next year to keep the same plan, older middle-income ACA enrollees will see the largest dollar increases in premium payments due to the return of the “subsidy cliff.” "

    A Steep Subsidy Cliff Looms for Older Middle-Income Enrollees if ACA Enhanced Tax Credits Expire

    Quick Insights

    The expiration of the ACA enhanced premium tax credits at the end of this year would reintroduce the “subsidy cliff,” which abruptly ends the credit for Marketplace enrollees earning over 400% of poverty. That means some middle-income enrollees, especially older ones, would spend a much larger share of their income on premium payments than those earning just slightly less with the credit.