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Affordable Care Act Signups Are Down, But Still an Incomplete Picture

Data from CMS may not fully show how much the expiration of the enhanced premium tax credits has affected enrollment in the ACA Marketplaces. The extent of enrollment changes likely won’t be known until this summer, when effectuated enrollment data are typically released.
DATA

Marketplace Enrollment Snapshot for Open Enrollment 2026

ANALYSIS

Higher Premium Payments or Higher Deductibles: The ACA's Tradeoffs

QUIZ

Test Your Knowledge of the Affordable Care Act

ANALYSIS

Competition Increased in Individual Market But Fell in Fully Insured Group Markets

Enhanced Premium tax credits

2025 KFF Marketplace Enrollees Survey

If their premium payments double, about one in three ACA enrollees say they would be “very likely” to look for a lower-premium Marketplace plan.

Updated Larry QT on ePTCs

There is No Drop-Dead Date for an ACA Tax Credit Extension, But Coverage Losses Will Mount as the Clock Ticks

A discharge petition in the House paves the way for a vote on a three-year extension of the tax credits, which would provide ACA enrollees premium relief whenever it comes. While there is still time to extend the enhanced tax credits, with each passing day, more and more ACA Marketplace enrollees are going to drop their health insurance when faced with eye-popping increases in their premium payments, writes KFF’s Larry Levitt.

Timely insights and analysis from KFF staff

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  • Recent Trends in Commercial Health Insurance Market Concentration

    Issue Brief

    Commercial health insurance markets remain highly concentrated across coverage types. However, the individual market, which consists mostly of the ACA Marketplaces, has attracted more insurers and witnessed greater insurer competition across a variety of measures since the implementation of the enhanced premium tax credits in 2021, according to a new Healthy System Tracker analysis.

  • Health Insurance Marketplace Calculator

    Feature

    The Health Insurance Marketplace Calculator, updated with 2025 premium data, provides estimates of health insurance premiums and subsidies for people purchasing insurance on their own in health insurance exchanges (or “Marketplaces”) created by the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

  • Mapping the Uneven Burden of Rising ACA Marketplace Premium Payments due to Enhanced Tax Credit Expiration

    Issue Brief

    Enhanced premium tax credits expire at the end of this year. Among those with incomes over 400% poverty who are losing the tax credit altogether, the impact will be greatest for those whose unsubsidized premiums are highest: older Marketplace enrollees and those living in higher-premium locales. The maps in this brief show how much average premium payments would increase for 2026 benchmark silver plans with the expiration of enhanced premium tax credits at three income levels above an income cap of 400% of federal poverty for a 40-year-old and 60-year-old individual, namely 401%, 501% and 601%.

  • KFF Health Tracking Poll: Public Weighs in on Health Care Debate and Government Shutdown 

    Poll Finding

    This poll finds that public support remains high for extending the enhanced ACA tax credits set to expire at the end of the year. Three quarters of the public favor of extending them, though support among Republicans has dipped since September. Most Democrats want a Congressional budget deal to include an extension of the tax credits.

  • How ACA Marketplace Costs Compare to Employer-Sponsored Health Insurance

    Issue Brief

    This analysis compares ACA Marketplace costs to employer-sponsored health insurance costs and finds that individual market premiums have become more similar to employer-sponsored premiums over time. In 2024, individual market insurance premiums averaged $540 per member per month, slightly below the average $587 per member per month premium for fully-insured employer coverage.

  • 8 Things to Watch for the 2026 ACA Open Enrollment Period

    Issue Brief

    The ACA Marketplace Open Enrollment season begins November 1, and with it comes looming changes to the enhanced premium tax credits, increases in out-of-pocket premium payments, new Marketplace eligibility rules, and more. Read our analysis of what these and other changes could mean for new and returning enrollees.

  • Health Provisions in the 2025 Federal Budget Reconciliation Law

    Issue Brief

    On July 4, President Trump signed the budget reconciliation bill, previously known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” into law. This summary provides background, description, budgetary impact and related information on the health care provisions of the law in four categories: Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act, Medicare and Health Savings Accounts (HSAs).

  • KFF Health Tracking Poll: Public Views on Recent Tax and Budget Legislation

    Feature

    KFF's Health Tracking Poll looks at awareness and perceived impact of the tax and budget law signed by Trump in July 2025. Nearly half of the public says that they expect the new law to generally hurt them and their families, about twice the share who say it will generally help. The law itself remains largely unpopular, with many more people holding unfavorable views than favorable ones.