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Medicare Advantage in 2025: Enrollment Update and Key Trends

In 2025, more than half (54%) of eligible Medicare beneficiaries - 34.1 million out of about 62.8 million with both Medicare Parts A and B - are enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the share will rise to 64% by 2034.

One in five (21%) Medicare Advantage enrollees is in a special needs plan (SNP), reflecting a steady increase in recent years. Overall, Medicare Advantage enrollment is highly concentrated among plans owned by a few firms.

Also: Medicare Advantage in 2025: Premiums, Out-of-Pocket Limits, Supplemental Benefits, and Prior Authorization

Medicare Advantage Enrollees Account for 25% of Inpatient Hospital Days

Most Medicare Advantage Markets are Dominated by One or Two Insurers

Medicare Advantage Quality Bonus Payments Will Total at Least $12.7 Billion in 2025

Medicare Advantage Insurers Made Nearly 50 Million Prior Authorization Determinations in 2023

New & Noteworthy
Medicare PArt D

The Uncertain Future of Medicare's Stand-Alone PDP Market and Why It Matters

This brief discusses the uncertain future of Medicare’s Part D stand-alone prescription drug plan (PDP) market, in light of declining PDP availability, rising premiums, and the unknown fate of a temporary demonstration program designed to stabilize the market more broadly. The uncertain future of the market is especially relevant for rural areas, where nearly 6 in 10 beneficiaries are enrolled in traditional Medicare and PDPs, and where there are fewer Medicare Advantage options.

A Current Snapshot of the Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Benefit

Stand-Alone Drug Plans Cover a Larger Share of Part D Enrollees Living in the Most Rural Areas Than Medicare Advantage Plans

Key Facts About Medicare Part D Enrollment, Premiums, and Cost Sharing in 2025

Changes to Medicare Part D in 2024 and 2025 Under the Inflation Reduction Act and How Enrollees Will Benefit

Prescription Drugs

The Effect of Delaying the Selection of Small Molecule Drugs for Medicare Drug Price Negotiation

Part of a recent executive order from President Trump directs the Secretary of HHS to work with Congress to implement a change in the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program to delay negotiation of so-called “small molecule” drugs beyond 7 years after FDA approval under current law. If that timeframe had already been in place, more than half of the Part D drugs that were selected for price negotiation in the first or second rounds – 13 out of 25 – would not have been eligible at the time drugs were selected.

FAQs About the IRA's Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program

Allowing Medicare to Negotiate Drug Prices Is Broadly Popular

The Facts About the $35 Insulin Copay Cap in Medicare

Enrollees in Most Rural Areas Rely More on Stand-alone Part D Plans

Data Visualization

The Facts About Medicare Spending

This interactive provides the facts on Medicare spending. Medicare, which serves 67 million people and accounts for 12 percent of the federal budget and 21 percent of national health spending, is often the focus of discussions about health expenditures, health care affordability and the sustainability of federal health programs.

Explore data on enrollment growth, Medicare spending trends overall and per person, growth in Medicare spending relative to private insurance, spending on benefits and Medicare Advantage, Part A trust fund solvency challenges, and growth in out-of-pocket spending by beneficiaries.

Related: FAQs on Medicare Financing and Trust Fund Solvency

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  • Tax Cuts Could Make It Harder to Change Medicare, Medicaid

    From Drew Altman

    In this Axios column, Drew Altman discusses how cutting Medicare and Medicaid has always been a challenge, but if the public comes to view “entitlement reform” as a means to pay for tax cuts, the GOP will have an even stiffer challenge, including with their base.

  • What Would a CVS/Aetna Merger Mean for Medicare?

    Feature

    Source Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services 2017 Part D plan filesKaiser Family Foundation, “Medicare Advantage 2017 Spotlight: Enrollment Market Update,” Figure 6, June 2017.

  • Kaiser Health Tracking Poll – November 2017: The Politics of Health Insurance Coverage, ACA Open Enrollment

    Feature

    This month marks the start of the ACA's fifth open enrollment period and finds three in ten of the public saying they haven't heard anything at all about the current open enrollment period. Despite their overall views of the ACA, the majority of the public (61 percent) – including most Democrats (71 percent), independents (58 percent), and half of Republicans (52 percent) – say that because President Trump and Republicans in Congress are now in control of the government, they are responsible for any problems with the health care law moving forward. This month’s tracking poll also examines public support for two variations of a Medicare buy-in proposal.

  • Half of Admissions in the Large Group Market Are Paid Above 150% of Medicare Rates, Excluding Maternity Admissions

    Issue Brief

    This analysis looks at in-network payment rates for inpatient hospital stays, other than maternity/newborn admissions, among large employer plans relative to Medicare payment rates. We find that a cap of 150% of Medicare rates would affect 52% of in-network admissions and 36% of in-network spending, while a cap of 300% of Medicare rates would affect 13% of in-network admissions and 13% of in-network spending, with variation across types of admissions.

  • Prices Increased Faster Than Inflation for Half of all Drugs Covered by Medicare in 2020

    Issue Brief

    Recent legislation would require drug companies to pay rebates to the federal government when annual increases in prescription drug prices for Medicare and private insurance exceed the rate of inflation. As context for understanding the possible impact of this proposal, this analysis compares price changes for drugs covered by Medicare Part B (administered by physicians) and Part D (retail prescription drugs) between 2019 and 2020 to the inflation rate over the same period.

  • Are Medicare Advantage Insurers Covering the Cost of At-Home COVID-19 Tests?

    Policy Watch

    The Biden Administration's requirement for private insurers to cover the cost of at-home rapid COVID-19 tests for their enrollees does not apply to Medicare. Medicare Advantage plans (offered by private insurers) have the option to cover at-home tests but are not required to do so. This policy watch examines whether some of the largest private Medicare Advantage plans are covering the cost of at-home rapid tests for COVID-19.

  • Simulating the Impact of the Drug Price Negotiation Proposal in the Build Back Better Act

    Issue Brief

    The Build Back Better Act (BBBA) includes a range of health and other proposals supported by President Biden, including a proposal to allow the federal government to negotiate the price of some prescription drugs covered under Medicare Part B (administered by physicians) and Medicare Part D (retail outpatient drugs). This brief illustrates the potential scope of the drug price negotiation proposal in the BBBA. This analysis is designed to highlight the types of Medicare-covered drugs that could be subject to negotiation, and which of the current top-spending drugs covered by Part B and Part D could be subject to price negotiation, and in what years, if the BBBA is enacted.