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What to Watch

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Work Requirements

Challenges with Implementing Work Requirements

Many states are anticipating a variety of implementation challenges, including the need for complex system changes, a compressed implementation timeline, and limited staff capacity.

What is the Medicaid Hardship Exception?

The number of Medicaid expansion enrollees who ultimately qualify for the high unemployment hardship exception will depend on how the exception is implemented and how unemployment rates changes.

Tracking Implementation of the 2025 Reconciliation Law: Medicaid Work Requirements

KFF’s interactive tracks key data and policies that will affect how states implement Medicaid work requirements, which are required under the 2025 budget reconciliation law starting in January 2027. The tracker includes state-level data on Medicaid enrollment and renewal outcomes as well as current state enrollment and renewal policies.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

The Essentials

  • 5 Facts: Immigrants and Medicaid

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

    This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • Medicaid Financing: The Basics

    Medicaid is a major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term services and supports for low-income residents. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid’s Share of National Health Spending

    This brief explores how Medicaid spending contributes to national health spending and how different service areas contribute to Medicaid costs.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Nursing Facilities

    The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

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  • Community Health Centers Are A Key Source of COVID-19 Rapid At-Home Self-Tests For Hard-To-Reach Groups

    Policy Watch

    As part of an effort to promote equitable access to tests, the Biden administration launched a testing supply program that has set aside 25 million rapid at-home self-test kits for distribution by community health centers. Under the program, health centers will be distributing self-tests to patients and community members, with a focus on populations at greatest risk from adverse outcomes related to COVID-19.

  • Medicaid and At-Home COVID-19 Tests

    Policy Watch

    As COVID cases have surged across the United States due to the new Omicron variant, the Biden Administration has stepped up efforts to expand testing capacity including by making at-home COVID tests more available.

  • The Intersection of Medicaid, Special Education Service Delivery, and the COVID-19 Pandemic

    Issue Brief

    The COVID-19 pandemic created unprecedented health and education challenges for children with disabilities, many of whom receive special education services. Many children receiving special education services have substantial health care needs, and services available through a child’s health insurance plan, such as Medicaid, can complement special education services. This brief explains how Medicaid and special education services intersect, explores the pandemic’s implications for children receiving special education services, and identifies key issues to watch moving forward.

  • State Delivery System and Payment Strategies Aimed at Improving Outcomes and Lowering Costs in Medicaid

    Issue Brief

    State Medicaid programs are using managed care and an array of other service delivery and payment system reforms, financial incentives, and managed care contracting requirements to help achieve better outcomes and lower costs. This brief examines what delivery system and payment reform initiatives are in place across states; how are states linking financial incentives and using transparency to improve quality and outcomes; and how are states leveraging managed care plan contracts to advance delivery system and payment reform initiatives.

  • Behavioral Health Parity and Medicaid

    Issue Brief

    This issue brief explains how behavioral health parity applies in the Medicaid program, including the major provisions of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services’ (CMS) April 10, 2015 proposed regulations, and identifies key policy issues at the intersection of behavioral health parity and Medicaid.

  • Medicaid Balancing Incentive Program: A Survey of Participating States

    Report

    The Balancing Incentive Program provides enhanced federal matching funds, allowing states to advance their efforts to rebalance Medicaid long-term services and supports (LTSS) spending and expand access to home and community-based services as an alternative to institutional care. This report highlights participating states' efforts to implement the program's three structural requirements and use the enhanced federal funds in support of other Medicaid LTSS rebalancing efforts.

  • States Expanding Medicaid Under the Affordable Care Act Expect 18% Enrollment Growth in Fiscal Year 2015, With Federal Funds Picking Up Most of the Cost

    News Release

    States expect the number of people enrolled in Medicaid will increase an average of 13.2 percent across the country in state fiscal year 2015 (which runs through June in most states), showing the early effects of the first full year of Affordable Care Act implementation, according to the 14th annual 50-State Medicaid budget survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation’s Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured (KCMU).