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What to Watch

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Work Requirements

Challenges with Implementing Work Requirements

Many states are anticipating a variety of implementation challenges, including the need for complex system changes, a compressed implementation timeline, and limited staff capacity.

What is the Medicaid Hardship Exception?

The number of Medicaid expansion enrollees who ultimately qualify for the high unemployment hardship exception will depend on how the exception is implemented and how unemployment rates changes.

Tracking Implementation of the 2025 Reconciliation Law: Medicaid Work Requirements

KFF’s interactive tracks key data and policies that will affect how states implement Medicaid work requirements, which are required under the 2025 budget reconciliation law starting in January 2027. The tracker includes state-level data on Medicaid enrollment and renewal outcomes as well as current state enrollment and renewal policies.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

The Essentials

  • 5 Facts: Immigrants and Medicaid

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

    This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • Medicaid Financing: The Basics

    Medicaid is a major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term services and supports for low-income residents. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid’s Share of National Health Spending

    This brief explores how Medicaid spending contributes to national health spending and how different service areas contribute to Medicaid costs.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Nursing Facilities

    The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

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  • COVID-19 Long-Term Care Deaths and Cases Are at An All-Time Low, Though A Rise In LTC Cases In A Few States May Be Cause for Concern

    Issue Brief

    This data note looks at state-reported LTCF data from 41 states plus Washington DC to assess what has happened to new deaths and cases in LTCFs in the four months since vaccinations began on December 21st, 2020. We also examine how recent changes in deaths and cases in LTCFs have shifted the nature of the pandemic outside of LTCFs. Data in this analysis is as of the week of April 11th, 2021.

  • Filling the Coverage Gap: Policy Options and Considerations

    Issue Brief

    This issue brief examines some of the other options policymakers may consider to extend coverage to people in the gap, including increased fiscal incentives for states, a narrower public option, and making people with incomes below the poverty level eligible for enhanced ACA premium subsidies.

  • Medicaid Provisions in the American Rescue Plan Act

    Issue Brief

    The American Rescue Plan Act, the COVID-19 relief package that became law on March 11, 2021, contains a number of provisions designed to increase coverage, expand benefits, and adjust federal financing for state Medicaid programs. These provisions are briefly described below and summarized in Table 1. Separate briefs summarize provisions in the new law relating to the Marketplaces and public health.

  • New Incentive for States to Adopt the ACA Medicaid Expansion: Implications for State Spending

    Issue Brief

    The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 encourages non-expansion states to take up the expansion by providing an additional temporary fiscal incentive for states to newly implement the ACA Medicaid expansion. This brief provides illustrative estimates of the net fiscal benefit to states from these incentives relative to state costs under the expansion.

  • Medicaid Spending and Enrollment Trends Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic – Updated for FY 2021 & Looking Ahead to FY 2022

    Issue Brief

    Even as the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out is accelerating across the country, the public health and economic effects of the pandemic continue to put pressure on Medicaid spending and enrollment. In mid-February 2021, the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) and Health Management Associates (HMA) fielded a two-part rapid, mini-survey of Medicaid directors in all 50 states and the District of Columbia as a follow-up to the annual Medicaid Budget Survey conducted last summer. This brief provides insights into the current status of Medicaid enrollment and spending trends in FY 2021 and state projections for FY 2022.

  • A Look at How Medicaid Agencies Are Assisting with the COVID-19 Vaccine Roll-Out

    Issue Brief

    As of February 2021, there are three COVID-19 vaccines approved for emergency use in the U.S. and states are playing a central role in their timely distribution and prioritizing eligible populations. Because Medicaid covers for over 77 million enrollees, including groups disproportionately at risk of contracting COVID-19 as well as hard-to-reach groups, Medicaid agencies can be important partners for the public health agencies that are typically leading the state COVID-19 vaccination efforts. This brief provides insights regarding how state Medicaid agencies are assisting with the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out including specific actions taken.