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What to Watch

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Work Requirements

Challenges with Implementing Work Requirements

Many states are anticipating a variety of implementation challenges, including the need for complex system changes, a compressed implementation timeline, and limited staff capacity.

What is the Medicaid Hardship Exception?

The number of Medicaid expansion enrollees who ultimately qualify for the high unemployment hardship exception will depend on how the exception is implemented and how unemployment rates changes.

Tracking Implementation of the 2025 Reconciliation Law: Medicaid Work Requirements

KFF’s interactive tracks key data and policies that will affect how states implement Medicaid work requirements, which are required under the 2025 budget reconciliation law starting in January 2027. The tracker includes state-level data on Medicaid enrollment and renewal outcomes as well as current state enrollment and renewal policies.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

The Essentials

  • 5 Facts: Immigrants and Medicaid

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

    This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • Medicaid Financing: The Basics

    Medicaid is a major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term services and supports for low-income residents. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid’s Share of National Health Spending

    This brief explores how Medicaid spending contributes to national health spending and how different service areas contribute to Medicaid costs.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Nursing Facilities

    The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

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  • Analyzing Recent Trends in Medicaid/CHIP Applications: What We Do and Do Not Know

    Issue Brief

    This data note discusses changes in the number of applications for Medicaid/CHIP coverage during the coronavirus pandemic. Although enrollment in Medicaid/CHIP has increased steadily by more than 6 million individuals (9%) from February to September 2020, the total number of Medicaid/CHIP applications has decreased by more than 150,000 (-6%) in the same time period. The decline in applications might on the surface suggest that fewer people are applying for coverage even in the face of large job and income losses, but data limitations – in particular, the fact that application statistics do not distinguish between new signups and renewals – make it difficult to draw any clear conclusions.

  • ACA Open Enrollment Matters for Medicaid Coverage, Too

    Policy Watch

    President Biden’s January 28th executive order to reopen enrollment in the federal ACA Marketplace from February 15 through May 15, combined with $50 million in federal spending on outreach and education about ACA coverage options, has the potential to reach millions of people who were uninsured prior to or have lost coverage during the pandemic. As of 2019, there were 29 million non-elderly uninsured people, and the majority (57%) were eligible for financial assistance through the ACA Marketplaces (33%) or Medicaid (25%). KFF estimates indicate that nearly nine million uninsured people could be eligible for free or subsidized Marketplace coverage during the new enrollment period. Importantly, these actions to facilitate enrollment in ACA Marketplace coverage will also likely lead eligible low-income people to enroll in Medicaid coverage.

  • Millions of Uninsured Americans are Eligible for Free ACA Health Insurance

    Policy Watch

    Amid the ongoing pandemic and high unemployment, this poste xamines how many uninsured people would be eligible for free health insurance during in a typical year, including those who qualify for Medicaid or for tax credits that cover the full cost of an ACA Marketplace plan.

  • Options to Make Medicare More Affordable For Beneficiaries Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic and Beyond

    Report

    Medicare provides significant health and financial protections to more than 60 million Americans, but there are gaps in coverage and high cost-sharing requirements that can make health care difficult to afford. This report analyzes several policy options that could help make health care more affordable for people covered by Medicare, especially beneficiaries with relatively low incomes: adding an out-of-pocket limit to traditional Medicare, adding a hard out-of-pocket cap to Part D, expanding financial assistance through the Medicare Savings Programs, and expanding financial assistance through the Part D low-income subsidy program.

  • How Has the Pandemic Affected Health Coverage in the U.S.?

    Policy Watch

    Findings from administrative data suggest that the decline in enrollment among employer-sponsored insurance was far less than overall declines in employment as of September, and that many who did lose their job-based coverage likely found a safety net in coverage through Medicaid or the ACA marketplaces.

  • Medicaid Maintenance of Eligibility (MOE) Requirements: Issues to Watch

    Issue Brief

    Federal legislation provides a temporary increase in federal Medicaid matching rates to states conditioned on states providing continuous eligibility for existing enrollees and meeting certain other eligibility requirements. This brief provides an overview of these maintenance of eligibility (MOE) requirements, examines what happens when the MOE expires, and discusses key issues to consider looking ahead.

  • Loss of the Affordable Care Act Would Widen Racial Disparities in Health Coverage

    Policy Watch

    In November, the Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments on a legal challenge that seeks to overturn the Affordable Care Act (ACA). This analysis shows that new coverage options under the ACA have contributed to large gains in coverage, particularly among people of color, helping to narrow longstanding racial disparities in health coverage.

  • Medicaid Covers People with Pre-Existing Conditions, Too

    Policy Watch

    In recent weeks, the possible overturning of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in court and the upcoming election have focused attention on the issue of protections for people with pre-existing conditions. While the focus has been on the ACA’s private insurance protections, Medicaid also plays a significant role in covering people with pre-existing conditions.