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What to Watch

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Work Requirements

Challenges with Implementing Work Requirements

Many states are anticipating a variety of implementation challenges, including the need for complex system changes, a compressed implementation timeline, and limited staff capacity.

What is the Medicaid Hardship Exception?

The number of Medicaid expansion enrollees who ultimately qualify for the high unemployment hardship exception will depend on how the exception is implemented and how unemployment rates changes.

Tracking Implementation of the 2025 Reconciliation Law: Medicaid Work Requirements

KFF’s interactive tracks key data and policies that will affect how states implement Medicaid work requirements, which are required under the 2025 budget reconciliation law starting in January 2027. The tracker includes state-level data on Medicaid enrollment and renewal outcomes as well as current state enrollment and renewal policies.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

The Essentials

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Provider Taxes

    This brief describe states’ current provider taxes and how the 2025 reconciliation law changed the federal rules governing them, including potential impacts across states.

  • Medicaid Financing: The Basics

    Medicaid is a major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term services and supports for low-income residents. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

  • 5 Facts: Immigrants and Medicaid

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

    This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Nursing Facilities

    The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.
Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

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  • State Variation in Medicaid LTSS Policy Choices and Implications for Upcoming Policy Debates

    Issue Brief

    This brief takes a closer look at multiple measures beyond waiver waiting lists to evaluate state choices about optional Medicaid eligibility pathways, spending, and services for seniors and people with disabilities as of 2018. The analysis draws on several KFF resources, including 50-state surveys of Medicaid financial eligibility pathways for seniors and people with disabilities, HCBS waiver programs, and state plan benefits offered, as well as state Medicaid LTSS expenditures reported by Mathematica.

  • Growth in Medicaid MCO Enrollment during the COVID-19 Pandemic

    Issue Brief

    This data note looks at state Medicaid managed care enrollment data through March 2021 to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic crisis on Medicaid enrollment. Data collected for 29 states show that the rate of Medicaid managed care enrollment growth was 18.8% when comparing managed care enrollment from March 2020 through March 2021. The rate accelerated compared to March 2020 through September 2020 and reversed the trend seen from March 2019 to March 2020 when aggregate growth declined.

  • Medicaid Spending and Enrollment Trends Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic – Updated for FY 2021 & Looking Ahead to FY 2022

    Issue Brief

    Even as the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out is accelerating across the country, the public health and economic effects of the pandemic continue to put pressure on Medicaid spending and enrollment. In mid-February 2021, the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) and Health Management Associates (HMA) fielded a two-part rapid, mini-survey of Medicaid directors in all 50 states and the District of Columbia as a follow-up to the annual Medicaid Budget Survey conducted last summer. This brief provides insights into the current status of Medicaid enrollment and spending trends in FY 2021 and state projections for FY 2022.

  • A Look at How Medicaid Agencies Are Assisting with the COVID-19 Vaccine Roll-Out

    Issue Brief

    As of February 2021, there are three COVID-19 vaccines approved for emergency use in the U.S. and states are playing a central role in their timely distribution and prioritizing eligible populations. Because Medicaid covers for over 77 million enrollees, including groups disproportionately at risk of contracting COVID-19 as well as hard-to-reach groups, Medicaid agencies can be important partners for the public health agencies that are typically leading the state COVID-19 vaccination efforts. This brief provides insights regarding how state Medicaid agencies are assisting with the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out including specific actions taken.

  • Utilization of Health Care Services by Medicaid Expansion Status

    Issue Brief

    Some critics of Medicaid expansion have argued that expansion diverts resources away from other groups of Medicaid enrollees, including people with disabilities and children, and that expansion enrollees are “able-bodied” implying they have minimal health care needs. However, data show that expansion states spend more per enrollee overall and on each eligibility group than non-expansion states and that nearly half of expansion enrollees have a chronic condition. This data note analyzes 2021 Medicaid claims data to compare utilization of health care services among Medicaid expansion enrollees with other Medicaid enrollees in expansion states and to compare utilization of health care services among adult Medicaid enrollees living in expansion and non-expansion states.

  • Which States Might have to Reduce Provider Taxes Under the Senate Reconciliation Bill?

    Policy Watch

    If Congress passes the reconciliation bill with the Finance Committee provision, 22 states might have to reduce their provider taxes on either hospitals or managed care organizations, cutting a key source of state Medicaid funding in those states. This policy watch explains how the Finance Committee provision would reduce states’ Medicaid spending, and the implications for expansion states.

  • SCOTUS Ruling on Medina v. Planned Parenthood Will Limit Access to Care for Patients in South Carolina and Beyond

    Policy Watch

    The Supreme Court's ruling in Medina v. Planned Parenthood of the South Atlantic means that Medicaid enrollees in South Carolina, and in other states that exclude Planned Parenthood going forward, will not be able to use their Medicaid coverage to obtain any preventive services, such as contraceptive care, STI treatment and cancer screenings, at Planned Parenthood clinics.