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What to Watch

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Work Requirements

Challenges with Implementing Work Requirements

Many states are anticipating a variety of implementation challenges, including the need for complex system changes, a compressed implementation timeline, and limited staff capacity.

What is the Medicaid Hardship Exception?

The number of Medicaid expansion enrollees who ultimately qualify for the high unemployment hardship exception will depend on how the exception is implemented and how unemployment rates changes.

Tracking Implementation of the 2025 Reconciliation Law: Medicaid Work Requirements

KFF’s interactive tracks key data and policies that will affect how states implement Medicaid work requirements, which are required under the 2025 budget reconciliation law starting in January 2027. The tracker includes state-level data on Medicaid enrollment and renewal outcomes as well as current state enrollment and renewal policies.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

The Essentials

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Provider Taxes

    This brief describe states’ current provider taxes and how the 2025 reconciliation law changed the federal rules governing them, including potential impacts across states.

  • Medicaid Financing: The Basics

    Medicaid is a major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term services and supports for low-income residents. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

  • 5 Facts: Immigrants and Medicaid

    This brief provides five key facts on Medicaid and immigrants as context for understanding the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

    This brief explains the role of Medicaid for hospitals, including how much spending on hospital care comes from Medicaid, the share of births covered by the program, and how Medicaid expansion has impacted hospital finances.

  • 5 Facts: Medicaid and Nursing Facilities

    The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.
Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

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  • Analysis of National Trends in Medicaid and CHIP Enrollment During the COVID-19 Pandemic

    Issue Brief

    This data note looks at national and state-by-state Medicaid and CHIP enrollment data through December 2022. After declines in enrollment from 2017 through 2019, preliminary data for December 2022 show that total Medicaid/CHIP enrollment grew to 92.3 million, an increase of 21.2 million from enrollment in February 2020 (29.8%), right before the pandemic and when enrollment began to steadily increase (Figure 1).

  • What Would Another Trump Presidency Mean for Health Care?

    Perspective

    In a new column in JAMA Health Forum, Larry Levitt, KFF’s executive vice president for health policy, explores what a second Trump presidency might mean for health policy based on his record and remarks, including potentially weakening the Affordable Care Act, reducing federal Medicaid costs, and restricting access to abortion.

  • The Impact of the Pandemic on Well-Child Visits for Children Enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP

    Issue Brief

    This issue brief examines well-child visit rates overall and for selected characteristics before and after the pandemic began and discusses recent state and federal policy changes that could impact children’s preventive care. More than half of children under age 21 enrolled in Medicaid or CHIP received a well-child visit in 2019, but the share fell to 48% in 2020, the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • What Do Medicaid Unwinding Data by Race and Ethnicity Show?

    Policy Watch

    As of September 2023, nine states are reporting data that allow for analysis of disenrollment patterns by race and ethnicity. Five states (Arizona, California, Indiana, Minnesota, and Oregon) provide data on disenrollment rates by race and ethnicity. Four states (Nevada, Oklahoma, Virginia, and Washington) report the distribution of disenrollments by race and ethnicity that can be compared to the distribution of overall Medicaid enrollment in each state by race and ethnicity.

  • Medicaid Enrollment Patterns During the Postpartum Year

    Issue Brief

    A provision in the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) of 2021 gives states a new option to extend Medicaid postpartum coverage to 12 months via a state plan amendment. This new option took effect on April 1, 2022 and is available to states for five years. Using Medicaid claims data from 2018, this brief examines enrollment patterns in the year following childbirth.

  • Early Look at Medicaid Spending and Enrollment Trends Amid COVID-19

    Issue Brief

    The coronavirus pandemic has generated both a public health crisis and an economic crisis, with major implications for Medicaid, a countercyclical program. During economic downturns, more people enroll in Medicaid, increasing program spending at the same time state tax revenues may be falling. To help support states as enrollment in Medicaid grows and ensure existing enrollees maintain continuous coverage, the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA) authorized a 6.2 percentage point increase in the federal match rate (“FMAP”) (retroactive to January 1, 2020) available if states meet certain “maintenance of eligibility” (MOE) requirements. This brief provides some early insights into the current picture of Medicaid spending and enrollment, as Congress considers providing additional fiscal relief through the federal Medicaid match rate.

  • State Actions to Facilitate Access to Medicaid and CHIP Coverage in Response to COVID-19

    Issue Brief

    This brief summarizes state changes to Medicaid and CHIP eligibility and enrollment policies in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, beyond those required to access enhanced federal funding. It is based on KFF analysis of approved Medicaid and CHIP state plan amendments (SPAs) and information on state websites as of May 21, 2020.

  • Medicaid Administrative Data: Challenges with Race, Ethnicity, and Other Demographic Variables

    Issue Brief

    There are persistent disparities in health and health care for people of color, which reflect structural and systemic inequities rooted in racism and discrimination. High-quality comprehensive data are key to enabling policymakers, community leaders, and other key stakeholders to identify and address these inequities and measure progress over time. Medicaid/CHIP administrative data, also known as Transformed Medicaid Statistical Information System (T-MSIS) or TAF (T-MSIS Analytic File), hold the potential to inform disparities research through detailed demographic, service utilization, and spending data of Medicaid and CHIP beneficiaries —but there are current limitations.