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Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Medicaid Watch

Featuring policy research, polling and news about how Medicaid is changing, and the impact of those changes due to the tax and spending cuts law

Medicaid and work

Tracking Medicaid Work Requirements:
Data and Policies

To implement Medicaid work requirements, states will need to make important policy and operational decisions, implement needed system upgrades or changes, develop new outreach and education strategies, and hire and train staff, all within a relatively short timeframe. The information tracked here can serve as a resource to understand Medicaid work requirements and state options, gauge readiness, and track implementation of the requirements.

understanding medicaid

Medicaid Financing

Medicaid represents $1 out of every $5 spent on health care in the U.S. and is the major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term care. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

Medicaid and Provider Taxes

All states except Alaska cover some state Medicaid costs with taxes on health care providers. This brief uses data from KFF’s 2024-2025 survey of Medicaid directors to describe current practices and the federal rules governing them.

5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

Absorbing reductions in Medicaid spending could be challenging for hospitals, particularly for those that are financially vulnerable. This brief provides data on the reach of Medicaid across hospitals, patients, and charity care.

Medicaid Home Care in 2025

This issue brief provides an overview of what Medicaid home care (also known as “home- and community-based services”) is, who is covered, and what services were available in 2025.

5 Facts: Medicaid Program Integrity

This brief explains what is known about improper payments and fraud and abuse in Medicaid and describes ongoing state and federal actions to address program integrity.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

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  • Medi-Cal Managed Care: An Overview and Key Issues

    Issue Brief

    California’s Medicaid program, Medi-Cal, is the largest state Medicaid program in the nation, insuring almost one-third of Californians. For several decades, Medi-Cal has been transitioning from a fee-for-service (FFS) system to risk-based managed care, and more than three-quarters of all Medi-Cal beneficiaries, including low-income children, adults, seniors, and people with disabilities, are now enrolled in managed care plans. As other state Medicaid programs increase their reliance on risk-based managed care, a review of California’s transition is both timely and illustrative. This issue brief provides an overview of the evolution of Medi-Cal managed care, key issues, and lessons for managed care programs in other states.

  • 5 Key Questions: Medicaid Block Grants & Per Capita Caps

    Issue Brief

    Medicaid covers more than 70 million low-income children, pregnant women, adults, seniors, and people with disabilities in the United States. The program represents $1 out of every $6 spent on health care in the US and is the major source of financing for states to provide coverage for the health and long-term needs of low-income residents. President Trump and other GOP leaders have called for fundamental changes in the structure and financing of Medicaid. This brief outlines five key questions to consider as the debate moves forward as well as some potential implications of these changes for states, beneficiaries and providers.

  • Trends in State Medicaid Programs: Looking Back and Looking Ahead

    Issue Brief

    For 15 years, KCMU and HMA have conducted annual surveys of Medicaid programs across the country. The NAMD has formally collaborated on this project since 2014. This brief provides a look back at the enrollment and spending trends as well as the multitude of policy actions taken by states across key areas: eligibility and application processes; provider rates and taxes; benefits, pharmacy and long-term care since as well as highlighting more recent data on managed care and delivery system reforms collected as part of this annual survey. Looking ahead, the survey will continue to capture the evolution of the Medicaid program with a focus program changes during economic cycles as well as innovations in payment and delivery system reform.

  • Testimony: What would strengthen Medicaid Long-Term Services and Supports?

    Issue Brief

    On August 1, 2013, Diane Rowland, Executive Vice President of the Kaiser Family Foundation and Executive Director of the Foundation's Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured, testified
    before the Federal Commission on Long-Term Care about ways in which the Medicaid program could be strengthened to better support low-income individuals with long-term services and supports needs.

  • Aligning Eligibility for Children: Moving the Stairstep Kids to Medicaid

    Issue Brief

    The Affordable Care Act (ACA) requires that Medicaid cover children with incomes up to 133 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL) ($31,322 for a family of four in 2013) as of January 2014. Today, there are “stairstep” eligibility rules for children. States must cover children under the age of six in families with income of at least 133 percent of the FPL in Medicaid while older children and teens with incomes above 100 percent of the FPL may be covered in separate state Children’s Health Insurance Programs (CHIP) or Medicaid at state option. While many states already cover children in Medicaid with income up to 133 percent FPL, due to the change in law, 21 states needed to transition some children from CHIP to Medicaid. This brief examines how the transition of children from CHIP to Medicaid will affect children and families as well as states. The brief also looks to New York and Colorado for lessons learned from the early transition of coverage.

  • Medicaid Enrollment: June 2012 Data Snapshot

    Issue Brief

    This issue brief updates our monthly Medicaid enrollment figures to include data as of June 2012. The issue brief discusses enrollment trends across all 50 states and DC as well as within select groups such as Families, the Aged & Disabled, as well as adult expansions (largely focusing on adults without dependent children or childless adults).