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Affordable Care Act Signups Are Down, But Still an Incomplete Picture

Data from CMS may not fully show how much the expiration of the enhanced premium tax credits has affected enrollment in the ACA Marketplaces. The extent of enrollment changes likely won’t be known until this summer, when effectuated enrollment data are typically released.
DATA

Marketplace Enrollment Snapshot for Open Enrollment 2026

ANALYSIS

Higher Premium Payments or Higher Deductibles: The ACA's Tradeoffs

QUIZ

Test Your Knowledge of the Affordable Care Act

ANALYSIS

Competition Increased in Individual Market But Fell in Fully Insured Group Markets

Enhanced Premium tax credits

2025 KFF Marketplace Enrollees Survey

If their premium payments double, about one in three ACA enrollees say they would be “very likely” to look for a lower-premium Marketplace plan.

Updated Larry QT on ePTCs

There is No Drop-Dead Date for an ACA Tax Credit Extension, But Coverage Losses Will Mount as the Clock Ticks

A discharge petition in the House paves the way for a vote on a three-year extension of the tax credits, which would provide ACA enrollees premium relief whenever it comes. While there is still time to extend the enhanced tax credits, with each passing day, more and more ACA Marketplace enrollees are going to drop their health insurance when faced with eye-popping increases in their premium payments, writes KFF’s Larry Levitt.

Timely insights and analysis from KFF staff

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  • Data Note: What if Per Enrollee Medicaid Spending Growth Had Been Limited to CPI-M from 2001-2011?

    Issue Brief

    Congress is currently debating the American Health Care Act (AHCA), which would repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and also make substantial changes to the structure and financing of Medicaid. Among other provisions, the AHCA would use a per capita cap policy to cap federal funds to states for Medicaid. This data note examines what the implications of tying per enrollee growth to CPI-M would have been for the 2001-2011 period for federal spending nationally and state-by-state by major enrollment group. This analysis is meant to illustrate how actual spending compares to spending limits that would have been in place if growth rates had been limited to CPI-M, similar to the limits proposed by the AHCA.

  • Medicaid Restructuring Under the American Health Care Act and Implications for Behavioral Health Care in the US

    Issue Brief

    This brief outlines Medicaid’s role for people with behavioral health conditions and the implications of the American Health Care Act for these enrollees. It includes information on the potential impact of ending the enhanced federal financing for newly eligible adults, removing essential health benefits from state plan amendments, and converting federal Medicaid funding into a per capita cap.

  • Data Note: Effect of State Decisions on State Risk Scores

    Issue Brief

    To gauge whether individual market risk pools are healthier in states that have expanded Medicaid and did not allow transitional plans, this data note compares average state risk scores using data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Summary Report on Risk Adjustment for the 2015 benefit year. The analysis finds that states that expanded Medicaid and did not allow transitional plans had lower average risk scores, suggesting the risk pools in those state’s markets are healthier than in non-expansion states and in states that allowed transitional plans.

  • What Paul Ryan’s Stance on 2016 Means for Health Care

    From Drew Altman

    In this column for The Wall Street Journal's Think Tank, Drew Altman discusses the implications of Paul Ryan’s decision to rule out being drafted as a Republican presidential candidate for the 2017 health care agenda and how it could focus greater attention on proposals to change Medicare and Medicaid along with the Affordable Care Act.

  • Analysis of UnitedHealth Group’s Premiums and Participation in ACA Marketplaces

    Issue Brief

    This analysis looks at how a potential withdrawal by UnitedHealth Group from the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces in 2017 could impact insurer competition and premiums, finding a significant impact in some markets, though it would have a minimal effect on the average benchmark premium nationwide, The impacts of a UnitedHealth withdrawal would vary considerably by state and market area, with a more pronounced effect in rural areas. Since UnitedHealth often is not one of the lower cost plans, the effect nationally on premiums of an exit by the insurer would be modest.