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How Much and Why ACA Marketplace Premiums Are Going Up in 2026

This analysis of initial rate filings from all 50 states and DC shows ACA Marketplace insurers are proposing a median premium increase of 18% for 2026, more than double last year’s 7% median proposed increase. The analysis includes proposed rate changes by state and insurer.

Data and analysis

The Uninsured Population and Health Coverage

This Health Policy 101 chapter examines the share of the United States population who are uninsured, highlighting their demographics and the challenges they face because of the lack of coverage.

How Many Uninsured Are in the Coverage Gap?

This analysis estimates that 1.4 million uninsured individuals in the 10 states without Medicaid expansion, including many working adults, people of color, and those with disabilities, remain in the “coverage gap,” ineligible for Medicaid or for tax credits that would make coverage ACA's Marketplaces affordable to them.

Key Facts about the Uninsured Population

The number of people ages 0-64 who were uninsured held steady at 25.3 million in 2023, although the number of uninsured children rose from 3.8 million to 4.0 million. Most uninsured people are in low-income families and have at least one worker in the family.

How the Unwinding Affected Enrollees

Over half who were disenrolled say they put off needed medical care while trying to renew Medicaid. Overall, 19% of adults who had Medicaid prior to the start of unwinding say they were disenrolled at some point in the past year. Of this group, a large majority (70%) were left at least temporarily uninsured.

The uninsured: How costs affect care and health, 2023

Latest Polling
8%

Percent of adults who reported not having health insurance
55%

Percent of uninsured adults who reported delaying or forgoing some form of health care due to cost
19%

Percent of uninsured adults who report that they or a family member had difficulty paying medical bills
38%

Percent of uninsured adults who reported not having a usual source of care (vs. 8% of insured adults)
Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker

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  • Allocating CBO’s Estimates of Federal Medicaid Spending Reductions and Enrollment Loss Across the States: House Reconciliation Bill

    Issue Brief

    The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) latest estimate shows that the One Big Beautiful Bill would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $793 and that the Medicaid provisions would increase the number of uninsured people by 7.8 million. Previous CBO estimates show that 10.3 million fewer people would be enrolled in Medicaid in 2034. Building on prior KFF analysis, this analysis allocates these estimated federal spending reductions and enrollment losses across the states.

  • A Medicaid Per Capita Cap: State by State Estimates

    Issue Brief

    This analysis examines the potential impacts on states, Medicaid enrollees, and providers of implementing a per capita cap on federal Medicaid spending, which is one proposal that has been discussed in Congress. Such a plan could decrease federal Medicaid spending by $532 billion to almost $1 trillion over a 10-year period, depending on how states respond. An estimated 15 million people could lose Medicaid coverage by 2034.

  • Forward or Backward on the Uninsured?

    From Drew Altman

    In this column, KFF President and CEO Drew Altman looks back at the remarkable progress made in expanding coverage for the uninsured and what it could mean politically for today’s remaining uninsured—a population that has had little clout historically and will command even less attention now.

  • New Incentive for States to Adopt the ACA Medicaid Expansion: Implications for State Spending

    Issue Brief

    The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 encourages non-expansion states to take up the expansion by providing an additional temporary fiscal incentive for states to newly implement the ACA Medicaid expansion. This brief provides illustrative estimates of the net fiscal benefit to states from these incentives relative to state costs under the expansion.

  • Two New Analyses: House COVID-19 Relief Plan Would Temporarily Lower Marketplace Premiums for Millions and More than Offset Short-Term State Costs to Expand Their Medicaid Programs

    News Release

    The House COVID-19 relief proposal would temporarily lower what millions of Marketplace enrollees and uninsured potential enrollees would pay toward premiums and would provide states that have not expanded their Medicaid programs a financial boost that would more than offset their costs initially, two new KFF analyses find.

  • How Many People Might Lose Medicaid When States Unwind Continuous Enrollment?

    Issue Brief

    Between 8 and 24 million people across the U.S. could be disenrolled from Medicaid during the unwinding of the program’s continuous enrollment provision. KFF's new analysis offers three illustrative scenarios for how state-level Medicaid enrollment could decline between March 2023 and May 2024, ranging from 8 percent to 28 percent of total enrollees. 

  • Section 1115 Waiver Watch: Continuous Eligibility Waivers

    Policy Watch

    The pandemic continuous enrollment provision and other research show that continuous eligibility reduces Medicaid disenrollment and “churn” rates and helps to ensure stable coverage. As many Medicaid enrollees are currently experiencing disruptions in coverage as a result of the Medicaid unwinding, a number of states are pursuing strategies to help promote continuity of coverage, including through unwinding waivers and Section 1115 demonstration waivers. This Waiver Watch summarizes approved and pending Section 1115 waivers with continuous eligibility provisions for children and adults in Medicaid.

  • How Many of the Uninsured Can Purchase a Marketplace Plan for Free in 2020?

    Issue Brief

    This analysis looks at how many of the remaining uninsured are eligible for premium subsidies that are large enough to cover the entire cost of a bronze plan, which is the minimum level of coverage available on the Marketplaces. It estimates 28% of uninsured individuals who could shop on the ACA Marketplace, or 4.7 million people nationwide, are eligible to purchase a bronze plan with $0 premiums after subsidies in 2020.