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Medicare Advantage in 2025: Enrollment Update and Key Trends

In 2025, more than half (54%) of eligible Medicare beneficiaries - 34.1 million out of about 62.8 million with both Medicare Parts A and B - are enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the share will rise to 64% by 2034.

One in five (21%) Medicare Advantage enrollees is in a special needs plan (SNP), reflecting a steady increase in recent years. Overall, Medicare Advantage enrollment is highly concentrated among plans owned by a few firms.

Also: Medicare Advantage in 2025: Premiums, Out-of-Pocket Limits, Supplemental Benefits, and Prior Authorization

Medicare Advantage Enrollees Account for 25% of Inpatient Hospital Days

Most Medicare Advantage Markets are Dominated by One or Two Insurers

Medicare Advantage Quality Bonus Payments Will Total at Least $12.7 Billion in 2025

Medicare Advantage Insurers Made Nearly 50 Million Prior Authorization Determinations in 2023

New & Noteworthy
Medicare PArt D

The Uncertain Future of Medicare's Stand-Alone PDP Market and Why It Matters

This brief discusses the uncertain future of Medicare’s Part D stand-alone prescription drug plan (PDP) market, in light of declining PDP availability, rising premiums, and the unknown fate of a temporary demonstration program designed to stabilize the market more broadly. The uncertain future of the market is especially relevant for rural areas, where nearly 6 in 10 beneficiaries are enrolled in traditional Medicare and PDPs, and where there are fewer Medicare Advantage options.

A Current Snapshot of the Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Benefit

Stand-Alone Drug Plans Cover a Larger Share of Part D Enrollees Living in the Most Rural Areas Than Medicare Advantage Plans

Key Facts About Medicare Part D Enrollment, Premiums, and Cost Sharing in 2025

Changes to Medicare Part D in 2024 and 2025 Under the Inflation Reduction Act and How Enrollees Will Benefit

Prescription Drugs

The Effect of Delaying the Selection of Small Molecule Drugs for Medicare Drug Price Negotiation

Part of a recent executive order from President Trump directs the Secretary of HHS to work with Congress to implement a change in the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program to delay negotiation of so-called “small molecule” drugs beyond 7 years after FDA approval under current law. If that timeframe had already been in place, more than half of the Part D drugs that were selected for price negotiation in the first or second rounds – 13 out of 25 – would not have been eligible at the time drugs were selected.

FAQs About the IRA's Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program

Allowing Medicare to Negotiate Drug Prices Is Broadly Popular

The Facts About the $35 Insulin Copay Cap in Medicare

Enrollees in Most Rural Areas Rely More on Stand-alone Part D Plans

Data Visualization

The Facts About Medicare Spending

This interactive provides the facts on Medicare spending. Medicare, which serves 67 million people and accounts for 12 percent of the federal budget and 21 percent of national health spending, is often the focus of discussions about health expenditures, health care affordability and the sustainability of federal health programs.

Explore data on enrollment growth, Medicare spending trends overall and per person, growth in Medicare spending relative to private insurance, spending on benefits and Medicare Advantage, Part A trust fund solvency challenges, and growth in out-of-pocket spending by beneficiaries.

Related: FAQs on Medicare Financing and Trust Fund Solvency

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  • KFF Health Tracking Poll July 2023: The Public’s Views Of New Prescription Weight Loss Drugs And Prescription Drug Costs

    Feature

    About half of adults are interested in taking prescription weight loss drugs. though interest drops when presented with obstacles or drawbacks. Many adults struggle with affording prescription drugs and say there should be more price regulation. Few are aware of provisions in the 2023 Inflation Reduction Act aimed at lowering the drug price for Medicare beneficiaries

  • How Do Dual-Eligible Individuals Get Their Medicare Coverage?

    Issue Brief

    People who are dually eligible for both Medicare and Medicaid coverage can get their Medicare coverage in a variety of ways. The brief breaks out the data for traditional Medicare, Medicare Advantage plans that are available to all Medicare beneficiaries, and plans that are designed specifically for dual-eligible beneficiaries.

  • New OIG Report Examines Prior Authorization Denials in Medicaid MCOs

    Policy Watch

    Congress asked the U.S Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of the Inspector General (OIG) to investigate whether Medicaid MCOs are providing medically necessary health care services to their enrollees. OIG found that Medicaid MCOs had an overall prior authorization denial rate of 12.5%–more than 2 times higher than the Medicare Advantage rate. Prior authorization denial rates ranged widely across and within parent firms and states. After a prior authorization request is denied, Medicaid enrollees can appeal, but it’s not always straightforward and many appeals don’t change the initial decision. Unlike in Medicare Advantage, if a Medicaid MCO upholds its original denial, there is no automatic, independent external medical review. OIG found that state Medicaid agency oversight of prior authorization denials is limited. The OIG report underscores concerns about prior authorization and access in Medicaid managed care, keeping this issue at the forefront of ongoing policy discussions.

  • New Weight Loss Drugs Raise Issues of Coverage, Cost, Access and Equity

    Event Date:
    Event

    New weight loss drugs, such as Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy (semaglutide) and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro (tirzepatide), could be transformative for people who struggle with obesity and obesity-related medical conditions, but there are major questions to consider related to insurance coverage, the cost of the drugs, and who has access. On August 4, three experts joined Larry Levitt, executive vice president for health policy at KFF, for a 45-minute “Health Wonk Shop” discussion about the questions surrounding what a new generation of weight loss drugs means for patients and payers.

  • Key Facts About Medicare Part D Enrollment and Costs in 2023

    Issue Brief

    The Medicare Part D program provides an outpatient prescription drug benefit to older adults and people with long-term disabilities in Medicare who enroll in private plans. This brief analyzes Medicare Part D enrollment and costs in 2023 and trends over time. The analysis highlights the substantial growth of Medicare Advantage drug plans in the marketplace for Part D drug coverage, where enrollment overall is concentrated in a handful of large plan sponsors.

  • A Small Number of Drugs Account for a Large Share of Medicare Part D Spending

    Issue Brief

    The Inflation Reduction Act requires the federal government to negotiate the price of certain high-spending drugs covered by Medicare. This analysis provides context for understanding the potential impact of negotiating prices for a limited number of Medicare-covered drugs by identifying the 10 top-selling Part D drugs in 2021, measuring the share of total Part D drug spending accounted for by top-selling drugs that year, and examining changes in spending and use of these drugs since 2018.

  • FAQs about the Inflation Reduction Act’s Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program

    Issue Brief

    The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) recently announced the drugs selected for the second round of negotiation for the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program, which was established by the Inflation Reduction Act. These FAQs address several questions related to Medicare’s drug price negotiation program and CMS's implementation of the program, with a focus on the details that apply for 2027, the second year that negotiated prices will be available under the program.