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Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Medicaid Watch

Featuring policy research, polling and news about how Medicaid is changing, and the impact of those changes due to the tax and spending cuts law

Medicaid and work

Tracking Medicaid Work Requirements:
Data and Policies

To implement Medicaid work requirements, states will need to make important policy and operational decisions, implement needed system upgrades or changes, develop new outreach and education strategies, and hire and train staff, all within a relatively short timeframe. The information tracked here can serve as a resource to understand Medicaid work requirements and state options, gauge readiness, and track implementation of the requirements.

understanding medicaid

5 Facts: Provider Taxes

All states except Alaska cover some state Medicaid costs with taxes on health care providers. This brief uses data from KFF’s 2024-2025 survey of Medicaid directors to describe current practices and the federal rules governing them.

5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

Absorbing reductions in Medicaid spending could be challenging for hospitals, particularly for those that are financially vulnerable. This brief provides data on the reach of Medicaid across hospitals, patients, and charity care.

5 Facts: Medicaid and Immigrants

Confusion persists about immigrants’ eligibility for federal programs. This brief helps readers understand how current Medicaid policy affects immigrants as well as the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

5 Facts: Medicaid and Rural Areas

Approximately 66 million people live in rural areas – about 20% of the U.S. population. Nearly 1 in 4 of them have Medicaid, a higher share than in urban areas (24% vs 21%).

5 Facts: Nursing Facilities

The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill that has been passed by the House could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

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  • Implications of Reduced Federal Medicaid Funds: How Could States Fill the Funding Gap?

    Issue Brief

    In this analysis, we present three scenarios of reductions in federal Medicaid spending and examine fiscal implications if states fill these financing gaps to maintain their programs and if all reductions are assumed to be in full effect in FFY 2015 (the most recent year for which Medicaid spending data is available). To fill these gaps in financing and maintain current Medicaid programs, we assume states will increase state spending for Medicaid by increasing state taxes or reducing education spending. This analysis is unlike the CBO estimate, which makes projections and accounts for changes in policy, state responses to make changes to Medicaid programs, and reductions in coverage.

  • Restructuring Medicaid in the American Health Care Act: Five Key Considerations

    Issue Brief

    On March 9, the House Ways and Means Committee and Energy and Commerce Committee passed the American Health Care Act, the Republican leadership’s plan to repeal and replace the ACA. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the House bill would reduce federal Medicaid spending by $880 billion over ten years by capping federal Medicaid spending and ending enhanced federal funding for Medicaid expansion adults. By 2026, federal Medicaid spending would be 25% lower than expected under current law, and 14 million fewer people would be covered by Medicaid than expected under current law. This brief considers five key Medicaid implications of the House bill.

  • Views of Governors and Insurance Commissioners on ACA Repeal and Changes to Medicaid: Responses to a Congressional Request for State Input on Health Reform

    Issue Brief

    This brief summarizes responses from governors and insurance commissioners in 35 states, including DC, to a request from members in the House of Representatives for state input on health care reforms. These responses provide insight into state leaders’ views on repeal and replacement of the ACA and the changes Congress is considering making to the financing and structure of Medicaid. It finds that respondents have mixed views on the ACA and potential repeal and replacement of the ACA; most respondents expressed cautions or concerns about repeal, which are shared among both Republicans and Democrats and those who oppose and support appeal; more respondents expressed concerns about capped Medicaid financing than indicated support, and those that expressed support included significant caveats; less than half of respondents, mostly Republican, cited interest in increased state Medicaid flexibility; over half of respondents supported returning authority to states to regulate insurance markets; and few respondents expressed interest in allowing the sale of insurance across state lines, HSAs, or high risk pools.

  • Data Note: Variation in Per Enrollee Medicaid Spending Across States

    Issue Brief

    Proposals to transition Medicaid a block grant or per capita cap would reduce federal spending. To understand per capita cap proposals, it is helpful to understand variation in per enrollee spending and per enrollee spending growth across states and enrollment groups. A per capita cap policy could lock in historic variation. This data note uses interactive maps and tables to show variation in per enrollee spending and spending growth by state and eligibility group.

  • Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: Future Directions for the ACA and Medicaid

    Feature

    This month’s Kaiser Health Tracking Poll explores the public’s views on the changing landscape of the U.S. health care system including proposals to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and to change Medicaid financing to a system of block grants or per capita allotments. The survey also examines which sources, including news media and other sources, the public trusts for information on the proposed changes to the country’s health care system.

  • What’s At Stake in the Future of the Kentucky Medicaid Expansion?

    Fact Sheet

    On June 22, 2016, Governor Bevin released his proposed Section 1115 demonstration waiver proposal called Kentucky HEALTH (Helping to Engage and Achieve Long Term Health) as an alternative to the current Medicaid expansion. This brief examines what has happened to coverage, access and utilization and the economic impact of the Medicaid expansion in Kentucky and the implications for changes going forward.

  • Medicaid Financial Eligibility for Seniors and People with Disabilities: Findings from a 50-State Survey

    Issue Brief

    This brief presents the latest information on Medicaid financial eligibility criteria and state adoption of major coverage pathways related to old age and disability. The findings are based on a survey of the 50 states and the District of Columbia that asked questions related to financial eligibility and policy choices related to mandatory and optional eligibility pathways. The brief also analyzes the likelihood of adopting optional pathways given a state’s ACA expansion status.

  • Abismo en el financiamiento de Medicaid: Implicaciones para los sistemas de atención de salud de Puerto Rico y las Islas Vírgenes de los EE.UU.

    Issue Brief

    Este resumen ofrece una descripción general del estado de los sistemas de atención médica y los programas de Medicaid en Puerto Rico y las Islas Vírgenes de los EE.UU. (USVI) aproximadamente un año y medio después que los huracanes Irma y María azotaran las islas, en septiembre de 2017. Después de las tormentas, los programas de Medicaid de los territorios han servido como recursos importantes para atender las necesidades de atención médica de los residentes, pero han operado bajo desafíos financieros de larga data. Este resumen se enfoca en esos desafíos e incluye el análisis de KFF de las consecuencias para las finanzas de los programas de Medicaid de los territorios, ya que la mayoría de los fondos federales de Medicaid provistos a través de la Ley de Cuidado de Salud a Bajo Precio (ACA), y la asistencia para desastres, expirarán a fines de septiembre de 2019. Los otros territorios de los EE.UU. (Samoa Americana, el Commonwealth de las Islas Marianas del Norte y Guam) también enfrentan retos relacionados con el vencimiento programado de los fondos de ACA. Este resumen se basa en trabajos anteriores y en informes públicos recientes, y en entrevistas con funcionarios de los territorios en los lugares afectados, con proveedores, con responsables de planes de salud de Puerto Rico y beneficiarios.