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Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

Medicaid: What to Watch in 2026

In this brief, KFF explores how state fiscal pressures are likely to converge with the implementation of the 2025 reconciliation law to affect Medicaid coverage, financing, and access to care over the next year, especially leading up to the midterm elections.

Medicaid Watch

Featuring policy research, polling and news about how Medicaid is changing, and the impact of those changes due to the tax and spending cuts law

Medicaid and work

Tracking Medicaid Work Requirements:
Data and Policies

To implement Medicaid work requirements, states will need to make important policy and operational decisions, implement needed system upgrades or changes, develop new outreach and education strategies, and hire and train staff, all within a relatively short timeframe. The information tracked here can serve as a resource to understand Medicaid work requirements and state options, gauge readiness, and track implementation of the requirements.

understanding medicaid

5 Facts: Provider Taxes

All states except Alaska cover some state Medicaid costs with taxes on health care providers. This brief uses data from KFF’s 2024-2025 survey of Medicaid directors to describe current practices and the federal rules governing them.

5 Facts: Medicaid and Hospitals

Absorbing reductions in Medicaid spending could be challenging for hospitals, particularly for those that are financially vulnerable. This brief provides data on the reach of Medicaid across hospitals, patients, and charity care.

5 Facts: Medicaid and Immigrants

Confusion persists about immigrants’ eligibility for federal programs. This brief helps readers understand how current Medicaid policy affects immigrants as well as the potential impacts of policy changes under the Trump administration.

5 Facts: Medicaid and Rural Areas

Approximately 66 million people live in rural areas – about 20% of the U.S. population. Nearly 1 in 4 of them have Medicaid, a higher share than in urban areas (24% vs 21%).

5 Facts: Nursing Facilities

The substantial Medicaid savings in the reconciliation bill that has been passed by the House could have major implications for nearly 15,000 federally certified nursing facilities and the 1.2 million people living in them.

2025 Medicaid Home Care survey

Payment Rates Ahead of 2025 Reconciliation Law

This issue brief describes Medicaid payment rates for home care and other workforce supports that are in place in 2025, before the majority of the 2025 reconciliation law provisions start taking effect.

Home Care Support for Family Caregivers in 2025
number of responding states, including DC, that allow payments for family caregivers by type of home care program and type of caregiver.

This issue brief describes the availability of self-directed services and supports for family caregivers in Medicaid home care in 2025, before most provisions in the reconciliation law take effect.

States’ Management of Home Care Spending

This issue brief describes the mechanisms states are currently using to limit Medicaid spending on home care and their plans for adopting new mechanisms in state fiscal year (FY) 2026.

Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home Care, 2016 to 2025
A Look at Waiting Lists for Medicaid Home- and Community-Based Services from 2016 to 2025

This data note provides new information about waiting lists in Medicaid home care before many of the provisions in the 2025 reconciliation law go into effect.

Eligibility and coverage

  • Eligibility, Enrollment, and Renewal Policies

    KFF's survey findings capture state actions that seek to improve the accuracy and efficiency of Medicaid and CHIP enrollment and renewal processes, as of January 2025.

  • Seniors and People with Disabilities

    More than 1 in 3 people with disabilities (15 million) have Medicaid (35%). In comparison, only 19% of people without disabilities have Medicaid.

  • Children with Special Needs

    Amid debates about proposed cuts to federal Medicaid spending, this brief analyzes key characteristics of children with special health care needs and explores how Medicaid provides them with coverage.

  • People With Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

    Among the estimated 8 million people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (I/DD), over three million have Medicaid coverage.

  • Adults with Chronic Conditions

    Among working age adults enrolled in Medicaid, approximately three quarters have one or more chronic conditions, and nearly one-third have three or more.

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  • An Overview of Actions Taken by State Lawmakers Regarding the Medicaid Expansion

    Fact Sheet

    The ACA Medicaid expansion has garnered different responses from statelawmakers - Democratics and Republicans as well as governors and legislatures. While it does not cover how every state has enacted the ACA Medicaid expansion, this fact sheet highlights some of the different actions state lawmakers have taken in response to the ACA Medicaid expansion.

  • Trends in Medicaid Spending Leading up to ACA Implementation

    Issue Brief

    This paper presents data on Medicaid spending during the years leading up to the implementation of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). It uses administrative data to first examine overall spending trends and trends by service type. We then draw on additional data to analyze per enrollee spending growth during this period, both by service type and by eligibility group, to understand what drove Medicaid spending.

  • Safety-Net Emergency Departments: A Look at Current Experiences and Challenges

    Issue Brief

    Safety-net hospital emergency departments (EDs) are an important part of our health care system, especially, but not only, for the uninsured and others with low income. With multiple major changes unfolding in our system today, including the development of new models of health care delivery, payment reforms, expanded insurance coverage, and increasing demand for primary care access, safety-net EDs are a sort of crucible in which these shifts and transitions can be seen playing out. To understand more about their current experiences and challenges as the Affordable Care Act (ACA) begins to takes hold, we conducted interviews with ED directors in a convenience sample of 15 safety-net hospitals around the country in June and July 2014.

  • Medicare Spending Peaks at Age 96  

    News Release

    In his latest column for The Wall Street Journal's Think Tank, Drew Altman discusses the implications of a Kaiser finding: per capita Medicare spending peaks at age 96, and the main reason is not end-of-life care. All previous columns by Drew Altman are available online.

  • An Overview of New CMS Data on the Number of Adults Enrolled in the ACA Medicaid Expansion

    Issue Brief

    New preliminary data from the Medicaid Budget and Expenditure System (MBES) released by CMS details for the first time the number of adults enrolled in Medicaid under the new Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansion category. This issue brief provides an overview of the new data as well as how it differs from the Performance Indicator data.

  • Medicare’s Role in Health-Care Payment Reform

    News Release

    In his latest column for The Wall Street Journal's Think Tank, Drew Altman explores whether Secretary Burwell's announcement this week about Medicare's payment reform initiative is another sign that the public sector is becoming the engine driving payment and delivery reform. All previous columns by Drew Altman are available online.

  • Medicare’s Role in Health-Care Payment Reform

    From Drew Altman

    In this column for The Wall Street Journal's Think Tank, Drew Altman explores whether Secretary Burwell's announcement this week about Medicare's payment reform initiative is another sign that the public sector is becoming the engine driving payment and delivery reform.

  • Proposed Medicaid Expansion in Tennessee

    Fact Sheet

    This fact sheet describes Tennessee’s 1115 waiver demonstration project, Insure Tennessee, which expands the State’s Medicaid program under the Affordable Care Act.