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Medicaid and the Road Ahead: Spending Cuts, Work Requirements and What’s Next for States, Providers and Families

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Passed last year, President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act made significant changes to Medicaid—the primary insurance provider for health and long-term care for people with low incomes. These changes are expected to lead to coverage loss for many current enrollees and will reduce funding for Medicaid, placing new financial pressures on states and health care providers. On July 23, KFF and States Newsroom hosted an event focused on the impacts of work requirements and other federal policy changes on states, health care systems, and people.

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understanding medicaid

Medicaid Financing

Medicaid represents $1 out of every $5 spent on health care in the U.S. and is the major source of financing for states to provide health coverage and long-term care. This brief examines key questions about Medicaid financing and how it works.

Medicaid Program Integrity

This brief explains what is known about improper payments and fraud and abuse in Medicaid and describes ongoing state and federal actions to address program integrity.

Medicaid and Provider Taxes

All states except Alaska cover some state Medicaid costs with taxes on health care providers. This brief uses data from KFF’s 2024-2025 survey of Medicaid directors to describe current practices and the federal rules governing them.

Medicaid and Hospitals

Absorbing reductions in Medicaid spending could be challenging for hospitals, particularly for those that are financially vulnerable. This brief provides data on the reach of Medicaid across hospitals, patients, and charity care.

Medicaid Home Care

This issue brief provides an overview of what Medicaid home care (also known as “home- and community-based services”) is, who is covered, and what services were available in 2025.

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  • About 1 in 5 Nursing Facilities Would Currently Meet Proposed Requirements for Nursing Staff Hours

    News Release

    Eighty-one percent of nursing facilities would need to hire additional staff to comply with new nursing staff requirements that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) proposed earlier this month, according to a new analysis from KFF. Under the proposed rule, 19% of nursing facilities would currently meet the minimum staff hours for registered nurses and nurse aides.A smaller share of for-profit facilities would meet the proposed staffing requirements. Compared to 60% of non-profit…

  • New OIG Report Examines Prior Authorization Denials in Medicaid MCOs

    Policy Watch

    Congress asked the U.S Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of the Inspector General (OIG) to investigate whether Medicaid MCOs are providing medically necessary health care services to their enrollees. OIG found that Medicaid MCOs had an overall prior authorization denial rate of 12.5%–more than 2 times higher than the Medicare Advantage rate. Prior authorization denial rates ranged widely across and within parent firms and states. After a prior authorization request is denied,…

  • 10 Million Have Been Disenrolled from Medicaid; Some Could Find Themselves Eligible for Marketplace Subsidies

    News Release

    More than 10 million people have been disenrolled from Medicaid, based on data available from 50 states and the District of Columbia as of November 1, 2023. Disenrollment rates range from 65% in Texas to 10% in Illinois, according to KFF’s ongoing tracking. Differences in state renewal policies and system capacity likely explain some of this variation. Some disenrolled individuals are regaining Medicaid coverage. As a result, overall declines in Medicaid enrollment will be less…

  • Proposed Work Requirements Could End Federal Medicaid Coverage for 1.7 Million People

    News Release

    A new KFF analysis finds that an estimated 1.7 million Medicaid enrollees could become ineligible for federal Medicaid under proposed work requirements and presents state-by-state projections, based on estimates of coverage loss from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). States could continue to provide Medicaid to those enrollees but would not receive federal matching funds for doing so. It is unclear if any states would choose to do that, though CBO estimated over half of enrollees…

  • States Received Over $117 Billion in Enhanced Federal Medicaid Funding for Pausing Disenrollments During the Pandemic; Non-Expansion States Received a Disproportionate Share 

    News Release

    A new KFF analysis finds that states received over $117 billion in enhanced federal Medicaid funding in exchange for pausing disenrollments during the first three years of the pandemic. The injection of federal money enabled states to spend less of their own funds on Medicaid even as enrollment rose by more than 23 million people nationally and total Medicaid spending increased by billions of dollars. Pandemic-era enrollment protections expired in March, and in April states…

  • Coverage Expansions and the Remaining Uninsured: A Look at California During Year One of ACA Implementation

    Report

    California is a bellwether state for understanding the impact of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Much attention has been paid to enrollment in California's new coverage options, such as the Medicaid expansion (Medi-Cal) and plans sold through ACA marketplaces (Covered California), and to changes in the uninsured from 2013 to 2014. However, less is known about how this coverage has affected people’s access to care and financial security, and why others remain uninsured. This report,…

  • Medicaid Balancing Incentive Program: A Survey of Participating States

    Report

    The Balancing Incentive Program provides enhanced federal matching funds, allowing states to advance their efforts to rebalance Medicaid long-term services and supports (LTSS) spending and expand access to home and community-based services as an alternative to institutional care. This report highlights participating states' efforts to implement the program's three structural requirements and use the enhanced federal funds in support of other Medicaid LTSS rebalancing efforts.