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Did the Affordable Care Act Make Health Care More Affordable?

The expiration of the ACA’s enhanced premium tax credits at the start of 2026, combined with rising insurer premiums, put a spotlight on health care affordability that extends beyond Marketplace enrollees. KFF’s Cynthia Cox examines the ACA’s record and the broader underlying question it raises: what’s a fair price for Americans people to pay for health care?

The ACA MarketplaceS

In Preliminary Rate Filings, ACA Marketplace Insurers Largely Propose Double-Digit Premium Increase For 2027, Following a Steep Climb This Year 

ACA Marketplace insurers are proposing a median premium increase of 14% for 2027— indicating a likely second consecutive year of double-digit increases, according to a new analysis of preliminary rate filings in 16 states and DC. If these increases hold, typical premiums for insurers participating in the ACA Marketplaces would jump by more than one-third between 2025 and 2027.

The Average Marketplace Deductible Grew by About $1,000 Per Person in 2026, With More Enrollees Shifting to Higher-Deductible Plans as Enhanced Tax Credits Expired

The average Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace deductible experienced the steepest increase in history—growing by 37% or over $1,000, from $2,759 in 2025 to $3,786 in 2026 as enhanced premium tax credits expired, according to a new KFF analysis. After the enhanced tax credits ended, many Marketplace shoppers shifted toward lower-premium, higher-deductible plans.

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  • KFF Health Tracking Poll: The Public’s Views of Funding Reductions to Medicaid

    Feature

    As Congress works to pass the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which includes significant changes to Medicaid and the ACA, the latest KFF Health Tracking Poll examines the views of groups that could be most directly impacted by the impending legislation. The poll finds most of the public is worried about the consequences of federal funding reductions to Medicaid, including rural residents, those with lower incomes, and across partisans.

  • More Than Half of the Public Worries Federal Medicaid Budget Cuts Would Affect Their Family’s Ability to Obtain and Afford Care; More Worry It Will Increase the Uninsured 

    News Release

    As Congress weighs spending cuts and other changes to Medicaid, more than half (54%) of the public say they are worried significant reductions in federal Medicaid spending would negatively affect their family’s ability to obtain and afford health care, a new KFF Health Tracking Poll finds. This includes about three in 10 (29%) who say they are “very worried” about such an outcome.  Democrats (69%) and independents (68%) are much more likely to say they…

  • Make American Health Care Affordable Again

    Perspective

    In this JAMA Health Forum column, Larry Levitt highlights how the Make America Healthy Again agenda aimed at chronic disease does little to address the affordability of health care and that efforts to lower federal spending on health care may worsen the problem, raising out-of-pocket costs for many people with Medicaid and Affordable Care Act coverage.

  • Early Indications of the Impact of the Enhanced Premium Tax Credit Expiration on 2026 Marketplace Premiums

    Issue Brief

    Every summer, health insurers submit rate filings to state regulators detailing expectations and justifying premium rate changes for ACA-regulated health plans for the coming year. With the enhanced premium tax credits set to expire at the end of 2025, consumers can expect increases in how much they pay for coverage. KFF examines 23 early insurer premium filings from Vermont, Oregon, Washington, and Washington, DC, which include an additional 4 percent increase in premiums, on average,…

  • Utilization of Health Care Services by Medicaid Expansion Status

    Issue Brief

    Some critics of Medicaid expansion have argued that expansion diverts resources away from other groups of Medicaid enrollees, including people with disabilities and children, and that expansion enrollees are “able-bodied” implying they have minimal health care needs. However, data show that expansion states spend more per enrollee overall and on each eligibility group than non-expansion states and that nearly half of expansion enrollees have a chronic condition. This data note analyzes 2021 Medicaid claims data…

  • The Spotlight Is on Medicaid Cuts, But the ACA Marketplaces Could See a One-Third Cut in Enrollment

    From Drew Altman

    In his latest column, President and CEO Drew Altman shows how proposals contained in the House reconciliation bill could result in a one-third reduction in ACA Marketplace enrollment. “While all eyes are on the big Medicaid cuts being proposed in the House,” he writes, “significant changes are also being proposed that together would dramatically reduce enrollment in the ACA Marketplaces.”

  • Marketplace Enrollees with Unpredictable Incomes Could Face Bigger Penalties Under House Reconciliation Bill Provision

    Issue Brief

    This analysis illustrates how provisions included in the House budget reconciliation bill could expose Marketplace enrollees with unpredictable incomes to higher penalties when filing taxes if they underestimate their incomes. About one in four potential Marketplace shoppers had incomes that varied at least 20 percent from the beginning to the end of the year.

  • On Medicaid Expansion, History Matters

    From Drew Altman

    In his latest column, KFF President and CEO Drew Altman discusses the history of the battles over the ACA’s provisions that were designed to expand coverage for the uninsured, which helps explain the effort to cut federal funding for the Medicaid expansion today. The real underlying issues, he says, are the same divisions that have always plagued the debate about covering the uninsured.

  • Responding to Federal Medicaid Reductions: Which States Are Most at Risk?

    Issue Brief

    A new KFF analysis examines a range of measures that may make it harder for states to respond to possible federal Medicaid cuts and finds that six states (Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri, New Mexico, South Carolina, and West Virginia) rank in the top five for multiple risk categories. Across four broad categories of measures that could affect demand for Medicaid and states’ abilities to raise revenue or reduce spending—population demographic characteristics, health status of Medicaid enrollees,…