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Did the Affordable Care Act Make Health Care More Affordable?

The expiration of the ACA’s enhanced premium tax credits at the start of 2026, combined with rising insurer premiums, put a spotlight on health care affordability that extends beyond Marketplace enrollees. KFF’s Cynthia Cox examines the ACA’s record and the broader underlying question it raises: what’s a fair price for Americans people to pay for health care?

The ACA MarketplaceS

In Preliminary Rate Filings, ACA Marketplace Insurers Largely Propose Double-Digit Premium Increase For 2027, Following a Steep Climb This Year 

ACA Marketplace insurers are proposing a median premium increase of 14% for 2027— indicating a likely second consecutive year of double-digit increases, according to a new analysis of preliminary rate filings in 16 states and DC. If these increases hold, typical premiums for insurers participating in the ACA Marketplaces would jump by more than one-third between 2025 and 2027.

The Average Marketplace Deductible Grew by About $1,000 Per Person in 2026, With More Enrollees Shifting to Higher-Deductible Plans as Enhanced Tax Credits Expired

The average Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace deductible experienced the steepest increase in history—growing by 37% or over $1,000, from $2,759 in 2025 to $3,786 in 2026 as enhanced premium tax credits expired, according to a new KFF analysis. After the enhanced tax credits ended, many Marketplace shoppers shifted toward lower-premium, higher-deductible plans.

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  • Pulling It Together: The Message from Massachusetts

    Perspective

    The Massachusetts special election has roiled the political world and profoundly affected the prospects for health reform just when it looked like passage was a lock.  Efforts are underway to put health reform legislation back together again on Capitol Hill, but not since powerful Ways and Means Chair Wilbur Mills fell into the Tidal Basin with Fanne Foxe in 1974, halting momentum on a deal on health reform that seemed ready to happen, has something this unexpected so affected…

  • Pulling It Together: Implementation Is Forever

    Perspective

    Now that historic health reform legislation is law, everyone is rightfully focused on implementation. There are two very different ways to look at implementation. One is the more legalistic worm's eye view, which sees implementation largely as the process of putting into effect what was written in the law. In the worm's eye view implementation proceeds in a linear fashion from legislation, to regulations specifying what the statute calls for in greater detail, to operations…

  • Survey of People Who Purchase Their Own Insurance

    Poll Finding

    While most people in the U.S. get health insurance through their employer, about 14 million people under age 65 have coverage through the non-group or individual market, which has faced scrutiny recently in news reports about some insurers’ steep rate increases and in the market reforms in the new health reform law that will take effect in 2014. This survey provides insight into the current state of the non-group market and finds policyholders report that…

  • Quick Take: Geographic Variation in Dual Eligible Enrollment

    Fact Sheet

    Over 9 million elderly Americans and younger persons with disabilities are jointly enrolled in the Medicaid and Medicare programs.  These “dual eligibles” receive coverage for most medical services from Medicare, and they also receive Medicaid assistance for Medicare premiums and cost-sharing and coverage of benefits not offered under Medicare (such as long-term care).  Dual eligibles are among the sickest and poorest individuals covered by Medicare and Medicaid and, as a group, account for a disproportionate…

  • Faces of the Medicaid Expansion: Experiences and Profiles of Uninsured Adults Who Could Gain Coverage

    Issue Brief

    These two papers provide insight into how state decisions to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act are likely to impact people. Based on focus groups and interviews conducted in Cincinnati, Houston, Las Vegas and Tampa with uninsured adults who could be eligible for the Medicaid expansion in 2014, these papers highlight the experiences of uninsured adults and the significant health and financial consequences of being uninsured, which sometimes impact their ability to work and…

  • Coverage at Work: The Share of Nonelderly Americans with Employer-Based Insurance Rose Modestly in Recent Years, but Has Declined Markedly Over the Long Term 

    News Release

    An improving economy and the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate may be behind a modest increase in the share of Americans with job-based health insurance in recent years, but the long-term trend remains a downward one, according to a new KFF analysis. Data from the federal National Health Interview Survey show the share of the nonelderly population covered by workplace plans rose from 56.3 percent in 2013 to 58.4 percent in 2017. That was still…

  • An Overview of State Approaches to Adopting the Medicaid Expansion

    Issue Brief

    State approaches to adopting the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion have varied greatly by state based on state law, the political context, or other factors. While it does not cover how every state has enacted the Medicaid expansion, this issue brief highlights some of the different approaches states have taken to adopt the Medicaid expansion. Each state’s circumstances are unique, and the actions taken by one state may not apply to another state’s circumstances.

  • “Partial” Medicaid Expansions Could Limit States’ Spending But Cover Fewer People at a Higher Federal Cost Compared to Traditional ACA Expansions

    News Release

    If states were able to receive enhanced Affordable Care Act matching funds for “partial” expansions of Medicaid, fewer people would get health coverage and the federal government would spend more, compared to a traditional expansion under the law, KFF explains in a new brief. The explainer describes how a partial expansion would differ from a traditional ACA Medicaid expansion and summarizes some of the expected effects. It also documents which states have sought federal approval…

  • Analysis: Marketplace Plans Denied an Average of Nearly One in Five Claims in 2017 with Wide Variations across Insurers

    News Release

    Healthcare.gov marketplace insurers denied nearly one out of every five claims (19%) submitted for in-network services in 2017, and enrollees only appeal a tiny share (0.5%) of those denied claims, a KFF analysis of recently released claims data finds. The analysis finds a huge variation across insurers, with average denial rates as low as 1 percent and as high as 45 percent. Denial rates also vary across states, though individual insurers in the same state…

  • How Affordable are 2019 ACA Premiums for Middle-Income People?

    Issue Brief

    This analysis finds that Affordable Care Act marketplace premiums are least affordable for older adults who earn too much to qualify for federal subsidies, especially those living in rural areas where premiums are highest. The analysis also discusses a variety of state and federal proposals that seek to lower premiums for middle-class people buying their own insurance who are ineligible for ACA subsidies.