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In his latest column, KFF’s President and CEO Dr. Drew Altman looks at why the issue of extending the enhanced ACA tax credits has languished in Congress without clear direction, despite its importance to the 24 million people who get their coverage in the ACA Marketplaces today and the potentially significant role the issue could play in the midterms if the credits are not extended.
In the face of reduced federal funding for Medicaid, states could be left with difficult choices – raise revenue or cut spending. Cuts to Medicaid could mean eliminating coverage for children, parents, working adults or those who might need long term care; limiting benefits; or cutting rates for plans or providers.
A per capita cap in Medicaid may be a solution in search of a problem. However, if a cap substantially reduced federal Medicaid spending over time, it would put states at financial risk and force cuts to services and rates paid to physicians, hospitals, and nursing homes.
The expiration of the ACA enhanced premium tax credits at the end of this year would reintroduce the “subsidy cliff,” which abruptly ends the credit for Marketplace enrollees earning over 400% of poverty. That means some middle-income enrollees, especially older ones, would spend a much larger share of their income on premium payments than those earning just slightly less with the credit.
Since the enhanced premium tax credits became available in 2021, ACA Marketplace enrollment has increased significantly in some red states, and 57% of enrollees now live in Republican congressional districts.
The ACA enhanced premium tax credits expanded financial assistance to more Marketplace enrollees, an expansion that was especially helpful to older middle-income enrollees, who would see the largest increases in out-of-pocket premiums if the enhanced credits expire.
Data currently being released represent Open Enrollment ACA Marketplace plan selections, or how many people have signed up for or been automatically renewed into 2026 coverage. These data do not necessarily translate to enrollments. That is because people who have selected a plan or been automatically renewed may not ultimately choose to pay for their coverage, thus “effectuating” their enrollment.
Until Congress passes the reconciliation bill, Marketplace insurers will face uncertainty regarding the regulatory landscape and may find it difficult to set premiums for 2026.
In a new column, Dr. Drew Altman, KFF’s President and CEO, discusses the limits of polling on policy, and what we have learned over more than 30 years of polling about how giving people more information and arraying tradeoffs can change opinion, including on the health policy changes and funding cuts in the current reconciliation bill.
ACA Marketplace changes are technical and numerous but consequential. While more attention has been focused on cuts to Medicaid, upcoming changes to the ACA Marketplaces could lead to just as many people losing health insurance coverage.
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